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hopsalot

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  • in reply to: Boeing vs Eurofighter vs Lockheed for KFX #2250116
    hopsalot
    Participant

    So let me see if I can get this straight.

    Korea is thinking about building a stealthed up 4th generation fighter with conformal weapons carriage.

    They are considering going with a Eurocanard layout.

    They may also use Eurojet engines to power the new fighter…

    Remind me again why they shouldn’t just buy some Eurofighters since that is what they seem intent on re-inventing.

    I get wanting to master new technology, but setting out to re-create a Eurofighter twenty+ years later is hardly a recipe for success.

    in reply to: Boeing vs Eurofighter vs Lockheed for KFX #2250167
    hopsalot
    Participant

    No more paper than J-31.

    Seriously? The J-31 is actually flying.

    The Koreans haven’t even made fundamental choices about the layout of their aircraft or what engine it will use.

    The term “paper aircraft” is overused, but in this case it clearly applies.

    If you don’t even know the very most basic features of your fighter yet it isn’t a serious program, just a discussion of possibilities.

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2250731
    hopsalot
    Participant

    That’s not the point. The point is no manned aircraft will be able to fly within contested airspace on a modern battlefield, the F-35 doesn’t allow to win using numbers either, so in the end, should cruise missile/SF fail to create a corridor then no aircraft 4th or 5th Gen will be able to get in.

    Moreover, jamming and other type of EA will become ever more important given the networked environnement of tomorrow’s wars, and that can be achieved without the F-35.

    Cruise missiles, jamming, drones, etc aren’t going away. Those participating in the F-35 program will continue to pursue all of the above, but there is no substitute for a manned aircraft and the F-35 will be able to operate places legacy jets can not.

    Really the point of my reversing LO’s scenario was to draw attention to yet another example of the double standard used by the anti-F-35 contingent.

    When we are talking about the F-35 the enemy is very nearly omniscient, capable of detecting, tracking and identifying every blip or non-blip anywhere near their airspace. Their forces will move and think as one, their systems will be diverse, redundant and reliable…

    If we were talking about a strike package of 4th generation aircraft however suddenly things are completely different. There are gaps in coverage, jammers that work, smart mission planning, and so forth.

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2250802
    hopsalot
    Participant

    And there’s clearly an issue that an ESM detection without a corresponding radar target indicates an LO platform. That’s useful information.

    … and think how your favorite 4th generation aircraft would operate in that environment. 🙁

    They aren’t going to want to use their radar or onboard jammer because they are dealing with an enemy that can reliably track and localize emissions inside and outside their airspace with high precision.

    They could of course turn their own radar off and only use their jammer in a self protection mode, relying instead on situational awareness provided by others… but that doesn’t help much in your scenario because remember…

    They can’t use their datalink because in your scenario the enemy can reliably track link-16 emitters both inside and well beyond contested airspace.

    Turning off their datalink doesn’t help because in your scenario the enemy has sufficiently good radars to reliably track 4th generation targets both inside and well beyond contested airspace. (remember the missing blip…) All they would be doing is flying blind and still being tracked.

    I suppose you could try to race in, radars on, jammers screaming, link-16 emitting, dodging missiles with your awesome super maneuverability…

    I would propose that perhaps an aircraft that was difficult to track on radar, that possessed a datalink designed for use in enemy controlled airspace without detection, paired with primarily offboard(but networked) jammers, decoys, and radars might work better in such a scenario.

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2250819
    hopsalot
    Participant

    DJ – The full report is not talking about a detachment. They are talking about the full deployed force.

    Spud – There is an obvious issue with blowing L-16 signals out from an F-35 anywhere in contested airspace (the airspace immediately outside the “red bubble” zone, where LO is supposedly mandatory, is not likely to be permissive).

    The issue is this: If I can hear you squawk, but you don’t show up readily on radar, you have just positively ID’d yourself.

    :rolleyes:

    Lets suppose the opponent really did have the level of sensor fusion you describe.

    Lets suppose that they really did have that level of long-range precision tracking capability to reliably track a fighter transmitting link-16 outside of their airspace.

    Lets suppose they have such confidence in their radars that despite the jamming, decoys, and the presence of other link-16 emitting aircraft at the edge of their airspace (the aircraft the F-35 is talking to) they can be confident that the non-blip on their radar screen is one or more F-35s…

    If all of that played out perfectly they have gained what? Knowledge that there is an F-35 operating outside of their reach? Good for them, no doubt that will win them the war.

    Meanwhile the F-35s operating -inside- their airspace are carrying on happily, talking to each other and the wider network.

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2250825
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Dignity in defeat often seems difficult for many F35 supporters. :p

    Got any fact based comment on sustainment costs?

    Sure, study continues. The F-35 incorporates many cost saving maintenance features that are difficult to price into estimates before they are seen in practice. Even in the internet age sometimes patience is necessary.

    Any comment on the time to operational service?

    Looks like we are about 4-5 years out. The Marines plan to deploy to Japan in 2017. The Japanese themselves plan to stand up their first squadron in that same timeframe.

    http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20130129_33.html

    Japan’s Defense Ministry has decided to deploy F-35 stealth fighter jets at Misawa Air Base in Aomori Prefecture, northern Japan, as early as fiscal 2017.

    The Air Self-Defense Force has ordered 42 of the jets, which are being jointly developed by 9 countries including the United States.

    Any fact based comment on escalating costs and declining budgets?

    Costs are declining and the budget is locked in through LRIP-6.

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2251127
    hopsalot
    Participant

    This is a thread about the F35, why bring other products into it, unless the facts on the F35 do not favour your argument.

    The Rafale and Gripen are both produced by countries that theoretically have significantly less resource than the USA, yet here are two operational and useful products…at a cost that countries can afford, with well mapped and resourced upgrade programs that meet the customers requirements into the meaningful future.

    Nobodies hoping the USA is going to slash defence budgets, you are resorting to strawman argument here.
    It again illustrates the lack of solid fact behind your argument.
    The fact is the defence budget is going to take a hit. This is called reality, a state the F35 and it’s supporters seem to be sadly detached from.

    Care to comment on sustainment costs, or is that simply dealt with by what appears to be another SOP of ignoring it?

    Edit: Amongst your blah blah bit there is an element wrth commenting on. You claim development is largely finished, (interesting claim that with how much testing of software still to go? Lets ignore that elephant for now.) yet fail to acknowledge the time this development has taken and the cost. Has the opposition been waiting politely for you to be ready before developing counter measures? The F35 may well eventually deliver the performance due originally for operational service around 2008. Do you not possibly think that delivering 2008 in 2020 may be risking advancements in opposing kit negating your “new” kit, which incidently you have spent all your budget on?? (Please note this is exaggeration for effect.)

    Cute little rant, do you have a point?

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2251205
    hopsalot
    Participant

    The “legacy Link-16” is being constantly upgraded, and I doubt it’s when non stealth aircraft are going to use it that they’re going to suddenly be detected lol.

    At the end of the day mission success is about degrading your enemy’s ability to see, track and kill you. LO is but one way of achieving that. It’s not to be dismissed, but it shouldn’t become so sacrosanct that no amount of money is enough…

    Depends who you are operating against… besides, MADL offers a lot of benefits that go beyond its LPI.

    Anyway IMO the 6th Gen main characteristic will be affordability lol, in that regard I know of at least two 6th gen aircraft (Gripen and Rafale…:diablo:).

    If affordability is your primary goal neither of the above are likely to be your first choice.

    Switzerland will pay far less for the 22 fighter jets it is planning to buy from the Swedish company Saab than Sweden itself would pay for the aircraft, the Swiss public broadcaster SF reported.

    Switzerland is to buy the JAS-39 Gripen combat jets for 100 million Swiss francs ($107 million) each, SF reported late Sunday, citing unnamed sources in both Switzerland and Sweden.

    That price is between 15 to 30 percent below the level Sweden itself has agreed to pay for the planes, according to the broadcaster’s sources.

    Stockholm has said it plans to buy between 40 to 60 Gripen jets, but has not said revealed how much it will pay for each.

    http://www.thelocal.se/44974/20121210/

    Remember, the Gripen was the “cheap” option compared to the Rafale…

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2251208
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Wow… 64 airframes…

    (Are the engines included? ;))

    This response doesn’t actually address the point. (SOP for the F35 pro’s. ;)) However in your attempt to debate the point re costs and shrinking budgets (care to comment on sustainment costs btw?) you illustrate neatly what a major obstacle the F35 has to overcome.

    I’ll lay it out simply:

    Reduced and low defence budget(s) equals fewer airframes bought equals slower reduction in cost equals even fewer airframes purchased equals… well you get the idea.
    This is reality. Now, today. Trying to shrug this off as a passing phase doesn’t wash.

    (I note the emotive “haters” is used again as well. It does nothing for the credibility of any argument you try to advance, in fact it rather illustrates he lack of solid fact backing the “pro” camps incessent cheerleading, if the facts were so solid in support of the program there would be no need to call people names.)

    64 airframes in two years… that equates to roughly triple the Rafale’s current production rate, or nearly 80% of the entire Gripen NG order book if you prefer.

    Things are just getting rolling for the F-35. It is over the hump developmentally but the haters and chicken littles of the world don’t seem to have realized it yet. By the time those next 64 jets are delivered the F-35 will have moved safely beyond any possible discussion of cancellation and joined the C-17 and a long list of other troubled programs that went on to become invaluable assets.

    You can keep hoping that somehow the US is going to slash its defense budget, give up on air power and what cancel the F-35… but it isn’t going to happen.

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2251225
    hopsalot
    Participant

    What is the status of this MADL? Does it actually exist in hardware form on the F-35 or is it merely a PowerPoint pipe dream?

    MADL will be in the F-35 from the start and is already being flight tested.

    1 August 2012: First Air-To-Air MADL Exchange

    F-35As AF-3 and AF-6 accomplished a high data rate exchange with the first F-35 air-to-air communication over the Multifunction Advanced Datalink, or MADL. Air Force Lt. Col. George Schwartz flew AF-3 on Flight 128 for two hours from Edwards AFB, California. Mark Ward piloted the 1.8-hour AF-6 Flight 104.

    http://www.codeonemagazine.com/article.html?item_id=111

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2251416
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Except that Link-16 is an omnidirectional L-band signal which anybody with direction-finding capability can detect and exploit. Use it enough within range of a SAM and you become a target.

    Of course, naturally that applies to the Rafale, Eurofighter, F-15, F-16, F-18, and so forth.

    The F-35 has the far more advanced MADL, but retains the legacy Link-16. It can use either or both as appropriate.

    In time as other assets adopt MADL, link-16 will be abandoned.

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2251418
    hopsalot
    Participant

    From the articles you quoted yourself, only 64 F-35 have been funded so far?! I don’t really see how you can translate that into the entire F-35 program being funded especially when nobody knows yet how much it’ll really cost…

    Latest F-35 Unit Costs Now Exceed $223 million

    The sequestration cuts are a product of budget negotiations in the US.

    Republicans, who are generally more defense friendly, are seeking budget cuts. (government wide)

    The Democrats are seeking to expand deficit spending.

    Sequestration was a compromise. In return for an increased debt ceiling, allowing more money to be borrowed, the Democrats agreed to future budget cuts. If those cuts were not made in a sensible manner automatic budget cuts, the so-called sequestration, would come into effect.

    Rather than make planned cuts as agreed, or even planning around the automatic cuts coming into force, the Democrats are seeking to create a crisis they can blame on the Republicans. (furloughing government workers, etc.)

    The bottom line is that this will likely result in an ugly few months ahead, but it is not a permanent condition. The F-35 is funded through next year, which should be more than long enough to get things sorted out.

    By that time F-35 testing will be nearing completion and costs will have continued to fall, etc etc, predictable pattern.

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2251622
    hopsalot
    Participant

    There are several ways that an F-35 can get data to the rest of the non F-35 network.

    1. MADL to an F-35 outside the danger zone and that F-35 relays it via Link-16 (can do now)
    2. RCDL (Radar Common Data Link) for the APG-81 (later upgrade)
    2. SATCOM (Block 4 upgrade)
    3. Gateways (either airborne, ground based, or ship based – can do now if resource available)

    http://i619.photobucket.com/albums/tt271/SpudmanWP/f3a43165.jpg

    Point Spudman :p

    Lets also not forget that legacy aircraft are restricted to Link-16, which the F-35 fully supports.

    Anywhere a 4th generation jet can go an F-35 can go. Anywhere a 4th generation jet can datalink, an F-35 can datalink. (With link-16)

    The F-35 can of course also go places the 4th generation jets can’t. It can also use its improved, jam resistant, LPI, datalink from places they can’t go…

    There really isn’t any way to play this as a negative for the F-35. :diablo:

    in reply to: F35 debate thread- enter at your own risk. #2251625
    hopsalot
    Participant

    In addition to the sustainment costs question it now appears that the defence budget is about to take a substantal hit.

    How many “price reducing” thousands of F35’s are you willing to bet on now?

    http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs.aspx?plckBlogId=Blog:27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7&plckPostId=Blog:27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post:0d80c514-0d93-41e4-9bc3-d366d652d467

    No good news for F-35 haters here… the F-35 is already funded.

    (Nov 29 2012) The $500 billion in cuts to the defense budget stipulated by sequestration played a major role in motivating Pentagon and Lockheed Martin leaders to reach a deal for lots five and six before the end of 2012. Congress has until Jan. 2 to reach a deficit reduction deal or the sequestration cuts found in the Budget Control Act will be enacted. Those cuts include an across-the-board 10 percent cut to planned defense spending over the next decade.

    However, the sequester cuts can’t touch previously obligated funds. If Lockheed and the Pentagon can agree to contracts for lots five and six, they could insulate funding for the 64 new Joint Strike Fighters in those production lots.

    “I think it’s in all of our interests, the company’s as well as the government’s, to get that next tranche of funding for lot six in place before the end of the calendar year. And as I said here today I’m pretty confident that’s going to occur,” said Bruce Tanner, Lockheed Martin’s chief financial officer, who spoke with Hewson and Stevens at the Credit Suisse conference.

    http://www.dodbuzz.com/2012/11/29/sequestration-deadline-speeds-f-35-negotiations/

    Then a few weeks later:

    Lockheed Martin Awarded $4.8 Billion for F-35 Work: Lockheed Martin last week received $4.8 billion in undefinitized modifications to the previously awarded advance acquisition contract supporting the F-35 strike fighter’s sixth low-rate initial production lot for 31 aircraft. The first agreement provides $3.678 billion for the procurement of 18 Air Force F-35A airplanes, six Marine Corps F-35Bs, and seven Navy F-35Cs, along with associated ancillary mission equipment, according to the Defense Department’s list of major contracts for Dec. 28.

    http://www.airforce-magazine.com/DRArchive/Pages/2013/January%202013/January%2002%202013/LockheedMartinAwarded$48BillionforF-35Work.aspx

    LRIP-4 aircraft are currently coming off the line. LRIP-5 will start coming off soon… LRIP-6 is for next year.

    in reply to: Kaveri Engine is a non starter for LCA #2251923
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Without an working engine there is that little chance of export potential now that they are reliant on a foreign supplier. It looks like they won’t be making any money out of it its too bad the LCA could have been an excellent aircraft to sell off to dirt cheap African or ME states.

    There just isn’t that much of a market for that type of jet. Typically buyers on very limited budgets just buy used aircraft or do without.

    Look at how much luck the Gripen has had. After years and years of trying with a fully mature aircraft they have only managed to sell a few dozen and lease a couple dozen more.

    That isn’t to say the Gripen isn’t a good plane, just that it is a very challenging segment of the market.

Viewing 15 posts - 2,596 through 2,610 (of 2,738 total)