LokeDelivery in 2016? yes that is very interesting; India requires delivery 36 months after signing the contract AFAIK. If Brazil did the same and managed to sign by end of 2011 they should expect the first plane by end 2014. Instead they expect delivery in 2016.
Another interesting thing from that article:
the recommendation that the Defense Ministry will submit to the President will give priority to the transfer of technology by the vendor
NG, the plane with not just the lowest cost but also the best ToT, will definitely be ready by 2016. The “high risk” of development seems suddenly more managable, doesn’t it?
Pepe, where are you? :diablo:
LokeColombia.
(I’m just guessing of course)
LokeI would be very surprised if it’s South Africa — they seem to have very little money at the moment.
If they were to buy Erieye I would expect them to go for an even cheaper option than the Saab 2000.
What about Oman or Kuwait?
LokeUAE’s interime purchase has already been published — it is not a secret. And it was not the Saab 2000 either.
Since Pakistan already got Erieye why would they keep this secret now?
I think Saudi Arabia or another middle east nation.
Or perhaps Singapore? They always tend to keep such deals secret…
LokeOn the other hand the UAE 60 Rafale order loss should have the French reeling in pain by now!
“Reeling in pain…” sounds rather dramatic to me?
AFAIK Rafale has not lost in UAE; they have merely requested info on the SH.
Perhaps just a move to force the French to accept a more favorable deal.
LokeDid you not hear the news from the UAE? Whereas the Rafale would need substantial upgrades to meet the UEA requirements, the SH can be used “out of the box” with no upgrades. Seems you are underestimating the SH.
To some extent all 4.5 gen fighters are coffins when faced with a modern SAM; it will be safer with UCAVs/stand-off weapons, and/or 5. gen planes.
For a2a all of them is good enough; Even today’s Gripen C/D is superiour to F-16 block 50, and the NG will be light-years ahead of that. Typhoon and Rafale can also hold their own in a2a.
LokeThe logic was always compelling. A dedicated licensed engine production line in the country for the Tejas MK-II would provide robust economy of scale advantages and funnel down the contenders in the MMRCA. That’s how it probably should happen, but will it? Another matter altogether. Some scenarios:
SCENARIO 1: At least six IAF officers I spoke to suggested that it would be wrong to connect the Tejas MK-II and the MMRCA on too many levels. One of them suggested that the two deals were mutually exclusive, with a sharp line dividing the two — in other words, the decision on one had no way of influencing the other. Therefore, in this scenario, the GE F414 selection provides no tangible advantages, going forward in the MMRCA, to the F/A-18 and Gripen NG, even though those advantages would normally shout loud.
[…]
The opposite scenario. Here, the government decides that a dedicated GE F414 engine line in the country means it makes sense to narrow down the selection based on the economies of engine scale logic. In other words, you have the Gripen going against the Super Hornet in the MMRCA finals.
More scenarios:
http://livefist.blogspot.com/2010/10/how-ges-tejas-mk-ii-win-affects-mmrca.html
So, what do people think?
LokeHammer, thanks.
Very interesting.
Gripen NG development has made significant progress. Brazilian companies in the T1 group seems to be doing well.
Still, the decision will be political, and Lula has already indicated his preference… or has he changed his position ?
The coming months will be nerve-wrecking both for Dassault and Saab!
Lokethe Indian govt used “life cycle” costs to show that the GE engine is cheaper.
Do you have a source for this?
LokeSeems the F414 will most likely win the Tejas contract:
http://livefist.blogspot.com/2010/09/this-is-huge-ge-f414-engine-lowest.html
This will probably increase the probability of the SH and NG making it to the short list?
LokeSAAB optimistic of making it to MMRCA downlist of IAF
Expressing optimism, SAAB executives said that their India campaign was enthusing them to enter the lucrative fighter market in the Asian region where many other nations are planning major acquisitions.
The Swedish company executives are hopeful that the Indian Government would shortlist the competitors by December to bring the number of contenders from six to two or three.
The Gripen is in contention with American F-16 and F-18/A Super Hornets, French Rafale, Russian MiG 35 and Eurofighter Typhoon.
The company executives claimed that the Gripen had come through well in Indian flight trials held at Leh and Jaisalmer.
“The trials were a complete success. We are very happy with the trials that went off early 2010. We are looking forward to the next steps and we are hopeful,” Eddy de la Motte, Director, Gripen for India, told PTI on the sidelines of the Africa Aerospace and Defence expo 2010.
[…]
The Gripen fighter aircraft, which is in service in the Swedish and South African Air Force, flew for 12 to 15 hours for eight days and also did single sorties during the trials.
full story:
My current guess for the shortlist: SH, Typhoon and NG.
LokeNews on F414:
The technology is half the weight of titanium and a third the weight of nickel, both metals prized for their strength and heat resistance for engine interiors. Ceramic matrixes also are resistant to heating, so they reduce the need for internal cooling flows. A set of CMC vanes could drive 500-1,000 lb. from an engine’s LPT system, Dale says.
Should be of interest to the Tejas, the NG and the SH…
230 — 450 kg weight reduction, that’s highly significant.
The EJ200 weighs 989 kg and delivers some 20,000 lbs of thrust in reheat.
The F414 weight is qouted at 1109 kg; if the most conservative weight reduction of 230 kg is achieved that would put the F414 at 879 kg, and with 22,000 lbs thrust…
In addition to weight savings the new technology would also reduce fuels consumption:
The technology holds the promise that designers can pursue constant volume combustion to reduce fuel burn in engines because their pressurization increases can be kept constant, he says.
Both NG and SH would benefit greatly from this I think. And perhaps also the Tejas?
LokeThe main thing Praetorian is good at is broadcasting the presence of the plane to everyone in the area.
Perhaps ideally one should have both passive and active MAW. In a network of fighters some may be used as “AWACS”; running their AESA radars on full power and distribute the sensor data to the other fighters running silent. In such a scenario I would not mind having Pretorian available… 🙂
Does that make sense, or not?
LokeI thought the bad omen was the Brazilian postponement — that was before the Swiss postponment and these UAE rumors.
OTOH Lula has promised to make a decision after the election which is real soon now and then Rafale will most likely score it’s first export. Unless Lula has changed his mind… I wonder if the UAE noise will make the Brazilians more wary? They need to think long-term and consider who will pay for their Rafale upgrades the next 30 years or so.
Same goes for Gripen, however; there are already several Gripen users and the NG will be the natural upgrade for some of them; the other thing is of course that the Gripen concept is in general much cheaper both to operate but also to upgrade. This will also make it easier to export, unlike the Rafale which is very very hard to export.
Still, Brazil is becoming a rich country so perhaps they will decide that they can afford to pay the premium price for future Rafale upgrades.
Anyway I agree with the others; there is already a dedicated Rafale thread right here.
Or is this one for bad news only? :confused:
LokeEurope has an edge over the US in the tightly-fought contest to sell India a next-generation engine for the homegrown Tejas light combat aircraft (LCA). Informed sources have told Business Standard that when the bids were opened last week, European consortium Eurojet bid $666 million for 99 EJ200 engines, against US rival General Electric, which quoted $822 million.
[…]
At stake here is far more than a few hundred million dollars. Industry experts say India’s choice of engine for the Tejas would significantly shape the choice of a medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA), an $11-billion contract for which the Indian Air Force is evaluating six fighters. Of these, the Eurofighter has twin EJ-200 engines, while GE F-414 engines power the US-built F/A-18 and Sweden’s Gripen NG fighters.
Says Air Vice Marshall (Retd) Kapil Kak of the Centre for Air Power Studies, the IAF’s official think tank, “It is as clear as daylight. Selecting the EJ200 for the Tejas would boost the Eurofighter’s prospects in the MMRCA contest.”
“Its engines, which form about 15-20 per cent of the cost of a modern fighter, would be already manufactured in India for the Tejas. For the same reason, rejecting the GE F-414 would diminish the chances of the two fighters that fly with that engine,” he added.
[…]
Selection of the GE F-414 engine, on the other hand, would provide all these advantages to the vendors of the F/A-18 and the Gripen NG fighters. This is a key reason why Eurojet and GE have conducted their Tejas engine campaign so competitively.
[…]
Defence ministry sources have expressed surprise that Eurojet bid 20 per cent cheaper than rival General Electric, which is widely regarded as a cost-effective manufacturer. In fact, conversations with EADS executives reveal that this is a well-considered business strategy.
Complete story:
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/eurojet-pips-ge-in-lca-engine-bid/408579/
Could one also turn this around and say that if the winner of the MMRCA is either the Typhoon, SH or Gripen NG, then it would make sense to pick the same engine for the LCA…? Or will the LCA engine be picked first? Why is it so delayed? Choosing an engine can’t be that hard can it?
Re. the low Eurojet price — Free razors, anybody? :diablo:
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