Lokeif the first fighters to reach FAB are to come by around 2014, the last aircraft of the first batch should be produced maybe around the end of the decade… if you can say how politics and economic situations of all countries in latin america will be in ten years, then fine, but for now, I don’t think anyone can say for certain who will ask/need what about then.
As for “production costs” is they even come close to the levels of the costs in france, then there’s something very wrong in the production program put in place…
I agree with Hammer on this one, I don’t see much prospects for Rafale customers in Latin America. I don’t see any of the economies change that much. It takes time to build a strong economy!
The number of Rafales sold world-wide the last 10 years should perhaps also give an indication on how difficult it is to sell an expensive twin-engine machine. Ten years from now there will also be Chinese a/c and perhaps also an Indian export LCA. Then there are of course the Russian stuff. It’s not like Rafale is the only non-US fighter on the market, not now and not in 10 years.
LokeFinally dureng the now infamous Sept 7th meeting with Sarkozy Lula declared quite clearly that he “favoured the Rafale”BUT that the French WOULD HAVE TO CUT THEIR PRICES for Brazil to purchase the Rafale. No cut, no purchase. What has been repeated now over and over is that the French HAVE NOT CUT THEIR COSTS in the second round of the Best and Final Offer request. To their and Sarkozy`s chagrin.
I hope it all makes more sense now.
Hammer,
thanks for your insightful postings — I have one question though: Are you sure that the French did not cut the prices?
It will be interesting to see the outcome — I would not be surprised if France will win this, politics rules, and France has bigger influence that Sweden:
Lokemost sources are dated from september when the announcements took place, like this one:
http://www.e24.fr/entreprises/defense/article130562.ece/Le-Bresil-negocie-36-avions-Rafale.html
especially the part:
“L’Elysée a précisé que les six premiers appareils, dont le premier exemplaire sera livré en 2013, seront construits entièrement en France et que graduellement la technologie serait transférée pour permettre aux Brésiliens d’assembler les autres avions. Le Brésil pourra ainsi assembler les Rafale et les vendre dans les autres pays d’Amérique latine, a expliqué le ministre brésilien des Affaires étrangères, Celso Amorim. “
“Elysée (french presidency) said the first six aircraft would have been assembled in france, and the technology transfer would gradually to brasil allow the assembly of other aircraft. That way brasil will be able to build the rafales and sell them to other countries in latin america, the brasilian foreign affaires minister Celso Amorim explained”
Well, I think that Turkey has an F-16 assembly line…
Brazil would get more than that, since they would be allowed to “sell to other countries” however, under what terms?
In Norway (like most countries) there is a factory producing Coca Cola. The Norwegian factory is producing and selling Coke all over the country!
Great, isn’t it?
Lokewhat I call “the nonsense” is the contradiction between two speeches said in the same video (we learn/we make the best in the world), not the particular value of this or that aircraft…
If it was that simple to “make the best aircraft in the world”, one has to wonder what were the americans and other europeans doing during last decades? or even better, if it’s so easy and cheap, why the F-22 or the F-35 cost so much?
What’s more, even on paper (which is what one has to consider right now, since gripen NG is nowhere near completion), the only thing the gripenNG has “ahead of others” is its price (and the difference is much smaller than the “1/2” or “1/4” ratios you can hear from the same guys that made that video)…
LOL, that’s a commercial!
Although if he really says “the best aircraft in the world” that is a bit surprising — I recall the Danes they had this commercial for their terrible beer (was it Carlsberg or Tuborg?) they said “the best beer in the world” (which is of course complete nonsense) and they received a lot of complaints and had to change to “probably the best beer in the world” (which is equally false IMHO).
I think there were some EU rules that actually forced them to change that commercial? In any case Brazil is not in EU so perhaps they can make all kind of silly statements like marketing people often do. In any case I am surprised that people are surprised… :rolleyes:
LokeThis could end as for Gripen in Norway, there it was a political decision, against all odds..
not quite right. Unlike in Brazil, in Norway the Norwegian Air Force did prefer the option that the politicians choose. Or the politicians choose the option that the Air Force wanted.
LokeThe french propose the whole technology transfer… that means, brasil will build its own aircraft.. completely and independantly.
It doesn’t come with some “magic button” to the brasilian worker just pushes it and an aircraft comes out… it means brasil will learn everything there is to know about the aircraft. They’ll have the knowledge they actually lack given to them on a plate… and be free to do whatever they want with it after that… Once they build their own fighters, they can make as many as they wish, no? And if they have the factories and the resources, they will be able to fix their own price for these.
Do you have any sources to that?
I have not seen any such statements from Dassault of the French… They promise a lot, but read carefully their statements — and think about how to interpret what they say. The devil is as always in the details…..
Also think about the logic behind it — does it make sense to you that Dassault (and France) would give up all their military secrets, more or less give them away to another country, and let that other country do whatever they will with it? Of course not… and then the questions becomes, how much will the Brazilians actually get? and what are the constraints?
As it turns out, the ToT offer from Saab w. partners seems better to Brazil than the ToT offer from the French… At least according to those that have access to all the details and not just marketing statements from the competitors…
LokeI guess the more obvious question about the EJ200 is what does that engine bring to the table? In peacetime it may end up costing considerably more. In wartime it may be an advantage due to its ability to move more air. The tradeoffs must be leaning towards the rm12 camp or they would have made the jump by the C/D model.
It seems to me that the main advantage of the EJ200 would be independence from the US; one of the main arguments used against Gripen NG for Brazil is the fact that the F414 engine in the NG is American.
LokeThe F-22 is terribly expensive and difficult to maintain due to the stealth requirements.
LM claims that F-35 will offer “affordable stealth”, in part due to improved materials technology etc.
Bashing LM and F-35 is always fun, but to stay serious for a few lines, if LM can deliver “affordable stealth” then it does become extremely interesting, and it may be worth the price. Survivibility will increase quite a lot if the F-35 is as stealthy as they claim. However if the RCS increases after a few rain drops or after changing a light bulb, then… it may not be worth it. Also, it will be interesting to see the range and maneuverability the thing will get in the end… and of course the final price tag. Looking forward to lots of interesting discussions in the coming 10 years 🙂
LokeInteresting to hear that. I wonder how feasible SAAB believe substitution of the Eurojet engine to be. Any link to any info, please?
Hope this is OK…
http://www.f-16.net/f-16_forum_viewtopic-t-1029-postdays-0-postorder-asc-start-75.html
A bit down, a post from superpilot:
These is an interesting e-mail by EuroJet Turbo GmbH:
Dear Mr. Ioannidis,
Thank you for your e-mail.
Saab has years ago already investigated the technical and operational
feasibility for re-engineering JAS 39 Gripen with the EJ200 engine.
Both Saab and EUROJET Turbo GmbH concluded that a re-engineering only
shall be considered if there is a customer demand available. From a
technical point of view, the EJ200 engine would fit into the engine bay
of JAS39 Gripen with minor changes applied to the interface connections.
The commercial feasibility of re-engineering JAS39 Gripen would be
supported, if required, by individual business case calculations.The Thrust vectoring nozzle is offered as an optional item for any of
the EJ200 engine standards.I hope this answer can help.
Yours sincerely,
Katarina ElbogenKatarina Elbogen
Executive PR and Political Affairs
EUROJET Turbo GmbH
Lilienthalstr. 2b
85339 Hallbergmoos
E-Mail: [email]k.elbogen@eurojet.de[/email]
LokeI’d agree – that “leak” seems too fishy! So Rafale might not have all the commercial offsets that Saab may offer, but is Saab offering nuclear submarine technology too? Commercial propositions are one thing, but this deal has “strategic” written all over it. Embraer’s whining notwithstanding. JMT
USS.
I thought that Brazil and France already had signed a nuclear sub deal?
And why would the fighter deal be linked to a nuclear sub deal?
Besides, it not about the commercial offsets, it’s more about the price and ToT…
LokeActually, what can be read here and there, the point FAb is making is “Gripen = cheapest solution..
and in the same time, the report is said to be 30000 pages long…
30000 pages to say this one is cheapest, that one costs more seems a bit of an overkill to me…
As it’s a leak, one can even wonder whether the “rating” we see is the “overall one” or only the “costs one”. For all we know, the leak may have been just a couple of pages (I seriously doubt the journalists read the 30000 pages of the report)
What’s more, the report is said to have been edited by a different entity (commission for coordination for combat aircraft or something like that) and then endorsed by the FAB… that may be the beginning of the clue for the “costs and profits” perspective that seems to be the major thing we talk about (who is in that commission? what interests this or that participant may have in FAB, embraer, or, eventually, other, foreign interests?).
In the end, the argument “they can’t sell the rafales as they could sell Gripens is strange to say the least… on one hand, they have french proposition in which they get complete technological transfer (meaning, they built the rafales 100% in Brasil and can sel them and/or develop variants to sell, etc… on the other hand, they have an aircraft that has some part, like the engine, made using US technology and for which they’ll probably need US approval if they want to sell it to other countries (would be funny to see the reaction if, for example, Brasil sells fighters to Venezuela… if it’s the Gripen, will the US agree to sell engines to Chavez?)
Another way to interpret it is that all three candidates meet the technical requirements — if that’s the case, it makes sense to focus on the non-technical requirements. Do you really think that Gripen would have been picked the winner if it was cheapest but did not meet the technical requirements?
If you had read the links, you would have noticed that it referred to an executive summary — it’s not like you will find any details about range of radars, TWR, etc. in there, is it?
Basically you got:
1. Technical requirements.
2. Cost (both purchase cost but and operational costs)
3. ToT
4. Offsets.
In an executive summary, you spend just a few lines on each. And if they all meet the technical requirments, there is not much to be said about it… and it makes sense to concentrate on the other factors; those that separate the three candidates.
You are right in one thing though: it’s not “the FAB”, it’s a committe that has written the report and reached a conclusion, however on that committee there are people from the FAB, and the report has been endorsed by the FAB. I believe it is quite normal to let an evaluation committee evaluate; this is how it was done in Norway, and I believe also India has such an evaluation committee of experts. The evaluation committee looks at all factors listed above, not just TWR and turn rates…:rolleyes:
You may also wonder why Dassault did this:
The aircraft manufacturer Dassault, in competition to supply 36 Rafale fighter jets to Brazil, had to reduce its selling price by 40% to increase his chances, said, Friday, November 6, Liberation.
if the price was not an issue?
This is in part 2-engine vs 1-engine. 1-engine fighter jets have always outsold 2-engine jets, look at history. However it’s more than that; Rafale is an expensive 2-engine fighter (e.g. the SH is much cheaper) and Gripen NG is a cheap but still very sophisticated 1-engine fighter.
Trying to sell Rafale to other South American countries will be like selling sand in Sahara… Look at what the other countries are flying today. Rafale is not economically feasible to those countries, and it would also be a huge overkill. Again, look at what they are flying today… Gripen NG on the other hand, would be a real candidate for other South American countries. If the GE engine is too much of an issue one can always insert an EuroJet :).
Saab and Eurojet has already done a feasibility study. Of course it will increase the price for those who insist (but still be much cheaper than the Rafale of course).
Anyway, this leak certainly made things more interesting… What will Lula do now?
LokeA cheaper plane gives the AF more flight hours.
Not only that: They also want more than 36 a/c (a total of 100 has been mentioned).
And for those who keep being surprised that the FAB is “not looking at capabilities”; who said so?
They have a list of technical requirements. However there are also other requirements — the FAB probably also have some operational requirements which will require a certain number of flight hours and presumably also more a/c in the future.
Unless Lula can guarantee that the overall budget of the FAB is dramatically increased for the next 30-40 years, it seems quite logical to me that Rafale should be ranked last — perhaps not because of technical requirements but because of operational requirements…
Funny that some people here seem to believe that the FAB only cares about “fanboy statistics”….
Of course, I could be wrong 🙂
Anyway, this does not mean that Rafale has lost — Lula has already indicated that he would like to ignore the FAB and the industry and go for Rafale. We just have to wait and see…
LokeAny cost estimates for the Chinese J-10? I think that would be a tough competitor to the LCA.
Politics will probably decide whether countries buys the J-10 or the LCA.
LokeIt’s hard to tell what is really going on — however my guess would be that these leaks refer to the first version of the report. Although I may be wrong.
Here it is claimed that the report was ready December 18:
It will be interesting to see what will happen next. Will Lula postpone the decision until after the election? Probably, if he wants to make a decision that is highly unpopular with both the FAB and the industry, he would want to do that sooner rather than later due to the upcoming election?
Edit: The SecretDefence blog from liberation.fr (that, according to some French on this board, is normally quite reliable) also brings the story:
LokeMore Brazil leaks — and again, they are claiming Gripen is the FAB favorite:
The French Rafale fighter, the Dassault, was third and last place in the technical report that the Air Force gave the Minister Nelson Jobim (Defense) on the proposed purchase of 36 fighter jets to the Brazilian Air Force. The Gripen NG, the Swedish Saab, was better evaluated, and the F-18 Super Hornet, the US-based Boeing was second, the report said the columnist Eliane Cantanhêde, Leaf (the entirety is available to subscribers of the journal and UOL).
….
According to the report, the “executive summary” of the report of FAB with the final conclusions of more than 30 thousand pages of data, pointed to the financial factor is decisive for the classification of the Swedish game: Gripen NG, to be a single-engine and still in the design phase (based on current Gripen, a version lower performance), is the cheapest of the three final competitors.
Another link:
Original links: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/brasil/ult96u674679.shtml
http://noticias.terra.com.br/brasil/noticias/0,,OI4187007-EI306,00-Relatorio+da+FAB+aponta+preferencia+por+modelo+de+caca+sueco.html
Interesting…
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