And -believe me or not- i checked and there IS an option clause.

If there is an option clause then IMHO the most likely scenarios are the following:

1. They go for another 18 Rafale, + 80-100 of a new fighter type (F-16 or Gripen E/F)

2. They go for another 18 Rafale, but also negotiate a new contract with France to build another 60-80 Rafale

3. They do not go for another 18 Rafale under the current contract but start negotiations to put up a Rafale assembly line in India right away.

4. They go for another 18 Rafale, but instead of adding another fighter jet they increase the numbers of Tejas and Su-30.

I think 1 is the most likely one, followed by 2 and 3, with 4 the least likely.

After losing out to France’s Rafale, Swedish aerospace and defence giant ‘Saab’ is hoping to sell its Grippen fighter jets to the Indian Air Force. Speaking exclusively to CNBC-TV18, Saab India head –Jan Wilderstrom said that Saab is not just offering the fighter jet but also the transfer of Gripen’s technology and assembly line to India.*

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/weofferingfull-fledged-aerospace-capability-saab-india_7579441.html

LCA MK2 is for Navy, as of now there is no plan for IAF version.

IAF is happy with LCA MK1A with few changes which are already listed quite a few times.

Dont know anything about Gripen, F-16 or F-18 in IAF service.

Is the IAF truly happy with mk1a or is it more that they have accepted that it’s what is realistic to get within reasonable timeframes and costs?

It has been mentioned several times that there will be one additional “made in India” fighter, I am very surprised you are not aware of this.

The air chief indicated that a new Make in India fighter production line could come up soon, based on “unsolicited offers” from Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Saab for building their fighters in India —the F-16 Block 70, F/A-18 Super Hornet and the Gripen E, respectively.* These offers are conditional on the IAF buying and operating the fighter in question.

“This is very much on the table and I’m sure whoever gives the best deal [will win]. All the aircraft are very capable, so it will depend upon who provides the best transfer of technology; and, of course, the price tag. It’s on the table; nothing is decided as yet.”

Said Raha: “This will not be just licensed manufacture. It will be proper transfer of technology. Also, India will become a hub for manufacturing, as well as maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) for other air forces in the region.”

http://www.business-standard.com/article/specials/iaf-chief-blames-upa-for-procurement-delays-spells-out-schedule-for-boosting-fighter-squadrons-116100400819_1.html

journo’s BS. Do you think ppl that declared Rafale L1 were stupid enough not to see that?

Nevertheless it does not change the basics; Although the Rafale is very much the preferred a/c of the IAF and they would love to see large numbers, the politicians have concluded that it is too expensive to buy in large nunbers.

If the IAF are “lucky” they will get another 18 Rafale — for the rest they need to consider a few squadrons of Tejas mk1, and then fill up with either F-16 or Gripen for the remaining numbers. It seems Tejas mk2 will not be developed, and thus there is an opening for another a/c in India.

or:

http://www.defensenews.com/articles/dassault-aviation-reliance-group-form-joint-venture-in-india

remember how Dassault won MMRCA? they have proposed to build it with Reliance Group for a given price (and then, the modifications to that proposal inflated the price by… a lot…)

looks to me that Dassault has found the way around “all made in HAL” obligation of MMRCA contract… and already started the works on the next “made in India” contract… somehow, I doubt they’ll make american or swedish aircraft.. but hey, I might be wrong… 😉

I understand your optimism however I strongly suspect the Indian budget is not big enough to buy large quantities of Rafale. It would make a lot of sense to buy another 18, 36 is just way too little, but apart from that I doubt they will buy more. I may be wrong of course, we should know more in 6 months or so…

Edit: it sounds like they talk about a “second fighter line”:

The air chief indicated that a new Make in India fighter production line could come up soon, based on “unsolicited offers” from Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Saab for building their fighters in India — respectively the F-16 Block 70, F/A-18 Super Hornet and the Gripen E. These offers are conditional on the IAF buying and operating the fighter in question.

“This is very much on the table and I’m sure whoever gives the best deal [will win]. All the aircraft are very capable, so it will depend upon who provides the best transfer of technology; and, of course, the price tag. It’s on the table; nothing is decided as yet.”

Raha said: “This will not be just licensed manufacture. It will be proper transfer of technology. Also, India will become a hub for manufacturing, as well as maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) for other air forces in the region.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/specials/iaf-chief-blames-upa-for-procurement-delays-spells-out-schedule-for-boosting-fighter-squadrons-116100400819_1.html

Well we’ll see after the 2021 update but I think the Captor-E gives the Typhoon a significant advantage, especially if Radar 2 is offered. Gripen would not interest India in the same role because it lacks the range and payload capability. SH is a possibility given the significant weapons support and provisions.

sigh… Typhoon was not even mentioned. Most likely this is between the F-16 and the Gripen since the SH is probably too expensive.

If cost had not been an issue they would have ordered 126 Rafale right away….

Sure, it could be viewed that way but the contract specifically excludes any obligation for further purchases and stipulates that such purchases can only be as a result of further negotiations IF they happen.

Some people disagree and claim that there is in fact an option for 18 additional Rafale — not that it really makes that much of a difference, what seems clear is that they will need one additional fighter, since Rafale will not be bought in large numbers. It also seems pretty clear that this additional fighter will not be the Typhoon.

He also spoke about “unsolicited offers” that India has received from Boeing, Saab and Locheed Martin to manufacture fighter aircraft in India and said the company which offers the best deal will be selected.

It’s really between the SH, F-16 and Gripen when it comes to future “make in India” programs. Rafale, Typhoon, Mig-35 are all out.