Rafale has until now met or exceeded the requirements of the French Air Force and Navy. At the same time, a fighter like Rafale would most likely not meet future requirements of e.g. the USAF — however, interestingly, the USN which is flying the SH (which lost to Rafale in India after techeval) is in no hurry to introduce the F-35…
It all depends on what the enemy got in a specific scenario, and what other assets are supporting the Rafale.
If one insists on generalizing though:
It seems to me that as long as the Rafale can avoid meeting modern Western fighters like F-22, Typhoon, and F-35 in the air, it will have excellent survivability; until PAK FA and J-20 becomes not just available but mature 5. gen designs, you simply don’t need a 5. gen fighter for a2a, the Rafale is more than enough.
The issue though is not a2a; it’s a2g and threats from the ground. This is where the 5. gen fighter might be very valuable already today. However also in those scenarios it really depends. Older stuff like they had in Libya doesn’t even cause a sweat to the Rafale pilot. And how many countries operate double-digit SAMs in an effective manner? Those that do needs to be handled with care of course, but so far that has not happened. Stand-off weapons may be needed in such scenarios, and perhaps a longer-range ASSM would be helpful for the last stage of degradation?
I’m thinking that Rafale will have a pretty good survivability in almost all scenarios one can think of, at least for the next 10-15 years. After that? Well it depends on two things; What potential foes will be able to field in the coming years, and how effective the French will be in upgrading the Rafale and integrating it with other assets.
The stealth of the F-35 is of course a big advantage, however this does not take away from Rafale what it got and will get in the future; excellent performance on a large range of parameters that will ensure high survivability in most scenarios, assuming the right tactics and supporting assets are available.
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