RPM, FF, TGT…Assumptions, assumptions….
Knifeedgeturn says:
As we all appear to have an interest in all things aeronautical, we must differ from the usual “run of the mill” nay sayers, detractors, and agendered sceptics, in that, we actually do want Emelia, Fred and the Electra found….
Amen to that, as soon as they are, I can return to pottering around in my workshop…..
Malcolm McKay says:
I won’t quote all of your reply because I think you are missing the point of what I am saying. To use that funny American expression I don’t have a dog in this fight.
Neither did I Malcolm, until dog-biting remarks were made about me, not here, but in another place. That got my interest but quick.
One thing does strike me which is that in these searches for high profile aircraft remains that there is a tremendous degree of bitchiness mostly due, I suspect, to the limited funds available and the understandable desire of the holders of different explanations to have their particular theory demonstrated to be correct.
To a degree true and as above, when a dog bites me, I respond.
As I have said before I have looked at the case TIGHAR make and I know enough, albeit as an informed amateur, to see where certain aspects of the purely aviation related evidence both material and radio texts while not by themselves proof are at least capable of interpretations that can be used to make a plausible case for the Gardner Island hypothesis. In particular the 157 337 line which I must reiterate was taken seriously at the time by the US Navy. That is not saying I accept it all unquestioningly but simply that it is sufficient not to be dismissed out of hand.
…and I reiterate that the “sunline” hypothesis depends on a sunline which MUST cut through Howland Island and the simple fact of the 1912GMT call “…must be on you but cannot see you”, indicates totally and without question that AE & FN only “thought” they were there, they did not know for sure so how can it be said that the sunline of 157-337 cuts through Howland ? The very basis of the Tighar Hypothesis is very shaky.
In view of the flight time put forward by AE of “18 Hours”, if the Electra was “…on you but cannot see you” at 19:12, there is an indication that the Electra was “late” at Howland, if indeed they were there. This indicates a wind strength to slow their groundspeed far above what they were in receipt of as a forecast, albeit, made from Hawaii, not from the local region weathermen.
Indications of “lateness” and broadcasts of “cloudy” and “overcast” raise questions of the impossibility of perfect Navigation, making the 1912GMT call one of the most contentious calls of the whole saga, throwing the sunline hypothesis into question.
Did you read that farcical exchange where they claimed to have found the engine, the propellor and the cowling.
I sort of “skipped” over that as my eyes rolled and eyelids closed….
Now given the fringe elements that have attached themselves to the matter I can understand your scepticism,
Malcolm, they have always been there, both in the old forum and now the new….
…but as I have said scepticism is a healthy thing but it is not in itself a research methodology because if it becomes too dominant in one’s thinking it simply impedes any scientific and objective analysis. You have simply dismissed the TIGHAR hypothesis not by providing conclusive evidence but by simply providing another hypothesis equally unproven. That doesn’t give an answer it only creates something else which needs an answer.
Firstly, I dismiss the sunline hypothesis as faulty, yes, because of the reasons explained above.
Secondly, there was always in Earhart’s thinking, a Contingency to head for the Gilbert Islands if Howland could not be found, this was applicable to the first attempt (ending in the groundloop at Luke) where a “fly-on” to the Gilberts was on if HOW could not be found and a “fly-back” to the Gilberts on the last flight, again if HOW could not be found.
Earhart said this to Gore Vidal before she left when he asked her what she would do if she could not find HOW. This is GV during an interview on tape in his bequeathed memorabilia to the University of Wisconsin.
That is why I do not believe she and Fred were nuts enough to fly south to Gardner. One thing is for sure, in Navigation, unsure of your position, it is impossible to navigate to a known position.
If Fred knew “where” they were, he would have been able to navigate to HOW. Ergo, he didn’t know where they were.
The Williams strip map she had is too indistinct in the positions of tiny islands but they did have the 1936 NatGeo Pacific Map. The Gilbert’s are a large group target 500 miles long, the Phoenix are a scattered group.
Creaking Door says:
So what happened to all the worn-out shoes, empty bottles and broken pocket-knives that these people didn’t want for those twenty-five odd years? I doubt that they had their rubbish taken off the island; much of it was probably burned or buried.
Plus all the debris left behind by the LORAN personnel….including old freckle cream jars…. Americans are not known for cleaning up on departure… ask the people in Honiara about that…
And in relation to the sextant box:
Exactly! But I’m still confused by the ambiguity of the ‘similar’ numbers on the two boxes (or one box) in question?
C-D, I cannot recall Tighar ever saying, “similar is not the same”.
Stepwilk says:
(In response to Malcolm’s comments on scepticism)… “Most intelligent thing I’ve read on this thread so far.”
Obviously not applicable to your own scribblings as well then, Stepwilk ?
RPM
RPM, FF, TGT…In reply to Ian Old….
In reply to Ian Old,
Where was 52 Sqn.’s (Andovers) hangar and flightline space? It seems possible that it was that area between the Beverleys and Whirlwinds, using the hangar parallel to the runway.
That is correct, the hangar was raised for 52 Squadron, back end of 67 (I recall). Their Line was between the Bevs and the noisy, leaking, rattling, whining, Whirlwind HAR Mk.10’s.
Also did 52 Sqn. only use the six C.1s, with the two VIP CC.2s being used by FECS and always based at Changi? I have seen conflicting reports as to where the CC.2s operated from whilst the C.1s were at Seletar.
AS FEC ‘s job was VIP (along with the Shiny Hastings, which I remember as a C.MK.1) they would have been at Changi. In ASF, we certainly did maintenance on them.
Where did 66 Sqn. (Belvedere HC.1) operate from at Seletar?
They operated from the East Camp area near the old “1931” Hangars (near the old Sunderland Base).
What about 209 Sqn. (Pioneers and Twin Pioneers)? There is a Twin Pin visible in one of the shots but it is not on a flightline.
209 Sqdn., hangared and operated from the two “Ridged roof” hangers close to the road that crossed the runway from East camp to West Camp.
Also where did the Beavers of 130 Flt. have their flightline?
Ah. Army. No idea but a lot of their work was “up country” in Malaya but they had a Flight at Kuching, I recall.
Did the two MUs (389 and 390) use all most of the hangars on the eastern side of the runway and therefore the flying units have those hangars on the western (control tower) side of the runway?
Mostly correct they were in the old 1931 hangars except for 66 Sqdn., as above.
Does anyone know what use was made of the large hangar near the yacht club, that was formerly used the Sunderlands after 1959?
I recall that was the Logistics stores. From there they dug out a Lancaster wingtip to fit a York for the ASF Team at Changi while I was there in 1959-62, can’t recall the year when the York Captain didn’t obey the Marshaller and ran his Port Wingtip into an ASF Hangar. Boy, was his F/E a little cranky. The F/E gave us S$50 each for replacing his wingtip. Yorks were doing the rocket fuel and missile carriage UK to South Australia. The Flying Boat slipway is till there, I saw it as I was leaving Seletar.
I would be really pleased to get any information concerning my questions or indeed receive information which fellow subscribers feel I would be interested in. I am nearly 50 years old, so the vast majority of those who served in Seletar will be of retirement age. I don’t want to leave my researching to when I retire!!
Half your luck… I’m 72 this month and still working…. In fact I’m in Kuala Lumpur looking after a Fokker F100 on Maintenance. The Aussie Age Pension doesn’t cover my bills…!!!
I was at Seletar for two+ months just before Christmas. All the old Hangars on West Camp are gone except for the old Beverly Hangar.
Soon to be demolished will be the old 1931 Hangars on East Camp along with all the buildings in that area.
The Singapore Government is spending S$ Millions on the new “Seletar Aerospace Park” and one of my old aerial photographs of Seletar is used on the brochure the Corporation has produced.
Reminiscent for old Airmen Aircrew is that part of the beloved Airmen Aircrew Sgt’s Mess on West Camp is still standing…… Good times were had there.
Most of the old families accommodation “Black and White’s” as they call them are still there and can be rented from the Sing Government on a monthly fee of around 3000-4000 S$’s a month.
Street names from the past are to be retained and for two months I went down ‘Piccadilly’ and ‘Old Birdcage Walk’.
Most of West camp is gone…. All new Hangars and Office buildings have mushroomed up out of nowhere. RR Engines have a huge facility there now and Aerospatiale and Hawker Pacific all have had new Hangars built.
They have connected Seletar to “Nee Soon” (now Yishun) and Sembawang with a causeway over the Sungei Seletar which incidentally is a a freshwater reservoir.
Regards,
RPM.
RPM, FF, TGT…In reply to Ian Old….
In reply to Ian Old,
Where was 52 Sqn.’s (Andovers) hangar and flightline space? It seems possible that it was that area between the Beverleys and Whirlwinds, using the hangar parallel to the runway.
That is correct, the hangar was raised for 52 Squadron, back end of 67 (I recall). Their Line was between the Bevs and the noisy, leaking, rattling, whining, Whirlwind HAR Mk.10’s.
Also did 52 Sqn. only use the six C.1s, with the two VIP CC.2s being used by FECS and always based at Changi? I have seen conflicting reports as to where the CC.2s operated from whilst the C.1s were at Seletar.
AS FEC ‘s job was VIP (along with the Shiny Hastings, which I remember as a C.MK.1) they would have been at Changi. In ASF, we certainly did maintenance on them.
Where did 66 Sqn. (Belvedere HC.1) operate from at Seletar?
They operated from the East Camp area near the old “1931” Hangars (near the old Sunderland Base).
What about 209 Sqn. (Pioneers and Twin Pioneers)? There is a Twin Pin visible in one of the shots but it is not on a flightline.
209 Sqdn., hangared and operated from the two “Ridged roof” hangers close to the road that crossed the runway from East camp to West Camp.
Also where did the Beavers of 130 Flt. have their flightline?
Ah. Army. No idea but a lot of their work was “up country” in Malaya but they had a Flight at Kuching, I recall.
Did the two MUs (389 and 390) use all most of the hangars on the eastern side of the runway and therefore the flying units have those hangars on the western (control tower) side of the runway?
Mostly correct they were in the old 1931 hangars except for 66 Sqdn., as above.
Does anyone know what use was made of the large hangar near the yacht club, that was formerly used the Sunderlands after 1959?
I recall that was the Logistics stores. From there they dug out a Lancaster wingtip to fit a York for the ASF Team at Changi while I was there in 1959-62, can’t recall the year when the York Captain didn’t obey the Marshaller and ran his Port Wingtip into an ASF Hangar. Boy, was his F/E a little cranky. The F/E gave us S$50 each for replacing his wingtip. Yorks were doing the rocket fuel and missile carriage UK to South Australia. The Flying Boat slipway is till there, I saw it as I was leaving Seletar.
I would be really pleased to get any information concerning my questions or indeed receive information which fellow subscribers feel I would be interested in. I am nearly 50 years old, so the vast majority of those who served in Seletar will be of retirement age. I don’t want to leave my researching to when I retire!!
Half your luck… I’m 72 this month and still working…. In fact I’m in Kuala Lumpur looking after a Fokker F100 on Maintenance. The Aussie Age Pension doesn’t cover my bills…!!!
I was at Seletar for two+ months just before Christmas. All the old Hangars on West Camp are gone except for the old Beverly Hangar.
Soon to be demolished will be the old 1931 Hangars on East Camp along with all the buildings in that area.
The Singapore Government is spending S$ Millions on the new “Seletar Aerospace Park” and one of my old aerial photographs of Seletar is used on the brochure the Corporation has produced.
Reminiscent for old Airmen Aircrew is that part of the beloved Airmen Aircrew Sgt’s Mess on West Camp is still standing…… Good times were had there.
Most of the old families accommodation “Black and White’s” as they call them are still there and can be rented from the Sing Government on a monthly fee of around 3000-4000 S$’s a month.
Street names from the past are to be retained and for two months I went down ‘Piccadilly’ and ‘Old Birdcage Walk’.
Most of West camp is gone…. All new Hangars and Office buildings have mushroomed up out of nowhere. RR Engines have a huge facility there now and Aerospatiale and Hawker Pacific all have had new Hangars built.
They have connected Seletar to “Nee Soon” (now Yishun) and Sembawang with a causeway over the Sungei Seletar which incidentally is a a freshwater reservoir.
Regards,
RPM.
RPM, FF, TGT…Wrecks in Papua New Guinea
Of interest to this thread is that there are still many, many, undiscovered missing aircraft from WWII in the Papua New Guinea territories. A lot will be in the seas around the islands but many will be on land, in the jungle.
There are reputed to be over 500 aircraft missing from the conflict still to be discovered. The USAAF and other branches of their services lost hundreds of aircraft. When it is considered that Port Moresby alone held something over 1500 U.S. aircraft at the height of the South West Pacific Area operations you can appreciate the size of the fleet involved. Terrain and bad weather accounted for a huge proportion of losses. The Americans had one particularly bad weather day they came to call “Black Friday”.
Logging operations in Papua New Guinea as they encroach into the more inaccessible areas and into the hills bring to light most of the wrecks found. Most wrecks are found by the Local People who to my mind are not given sufficient credit for this. Some are found by avid hunters who have clues as to locations and actually do put boots on the ground.
I have a particular search project going which may be of interest.
RPM, FF, TGT…Wrecks in Papua New Guinea
Of interest to this thread is that there are still many, many, undiscovered missing aircraft from WWII in the Papua New Guinea territories. A lot will be in the seas around the islands but many will be on land, in the jungle.
There are reputed to be over 500 aircraft missing from the conflict still to be discovered. The USAAF and other branches of their services lost hundreds of aircraft. When it is considered that Port Moresby alone held something over 1500 U.S. aircraft at the height of the South West Pacific Area operations you can appreciate the size of the fleet involved. Terrain and bad weather accounted for a huge proportion of losses. The Americans had one particularly bad weather day they came to call “Black Friday”.
Logging operations in Papua New Guinea as they encroach into the more inaccessible areas and into the hills bring to light most of the wrecks found. Most wrecks are found by the Local People who to my mind are not given sufficient credit for this. Some are found by avid hunters who have clues as to locations and actually do put boots on the ground.
I have a particular search project going which may be of interest.
RPM, FF, TGT…Vulcan break up at the Air Show…
My memory is either playing tricks with me but my recollection is that this was at RAF Newton, not RAF Syerston just 10 miles or so north of Newton.
Not unless of course there have been “two” Vulcan break-ups in the same area.
I was an RAF Apprentice and because my home was in Nottingham, I was picked out to go there with two other Brats and man the recruiting stand “in uniform”, of course, the prize being most of the weekend at home… because we weren’t allowed out much at Halton, you see….it was a bit of a prison…
Anyway it is vivid in my mind as the Vulcan was “I recall” a Test Bed aircraft from Hucknall and he was doing a high speed run and I recall it as being from North East to South West, so how it could end up at Syerston I don’t know.
I was on a break from the recruiting stand and strolled out to where the crowd were just in time to hear the announcemnt and see the Vulcan turning to line up for the run. It straightened out and I watched as the sheetmetal started to fly off the starboard wing leading edge and then it was… “all over red rover”. Terrible thing to witness.
It was a bright sunny day I recall and what sticks to me in my mind that it was Newton and not Syerston is that there was a Hawker Tempest at the airshow and it was parked on the grass. I believe it was the last the RAF had. Newton didn’t have a lot of hardstanding in front of the hangars and Newton didn’t have runways, it was grass airfield reinforced in part by PSP..
I waited as long as I could to get a glimpse of this beauty while it started up and then I wanted to see the take-off but it didn’t happen. On start-up the N. Sabre emitted a big long curling flame which lasted for a few seconds and this flame melted and distorted the left hand side of the canopy so it was grounded.
I am familiar with the layout of both Newton and Syerston (both WWII fields) having been there many times to both. Was it Newton or was it Syerston ? I believe it was Newton. I see “the book” says Syerston.
RPM…
RPM, FF, TGT…Linkoping Museum
MarGus
Many thanks for the correction, yes, I was thinking of the very rare Ju86 at the Linkoping Museum amongst all the other rare exhibits. Well worth the visit to that Museum.
I am beginning to think I have altheimers…..if I can remember……:rolleyes:
RPM, FF, TGT…Wilkins and the Russian 10E
For NII VVS:
Many thanks for the correction to my generalised statements about the Russian owned 10E off the topic of TIGHARS antics, (which should be the thrust of this thread as originally intended).
However, that said, if you do have information about the flights conducted by Wilkins in the 10E during its’ ownership by the Soviet Republic, I would be interested. Fuel loads, times, distances, heights; are all relevant to gaining information on the same class or marque of Electra.
Any idea why no positive information on the fate of this particular aircraft is known ? I did read that it crashed in the “amorphous” area called the Steppes. If it is still in one piece and recoverable, then it would be quite a prize.
RPM…
RPM, FF, TGT…Inky:
I forgot to mention that the Cobra in later years to my recollection had a black ring around it….. to keep it in I suppose !
Yes indeedy, there was an external stores (including bombs !) role, possibly because of the Aden & Yemeni rebels trouble in the early sixties. PM me with your email and I’ll dig out something from the Vol 1 I have which shows the lugs. When I got on them, there was nil training for such a role and I can’t recall anyone ever saying they did it either, but some of the early ones at Thorney had the lugs I recall.
Yerse…”With speed I strike”, everyone but 114 had a sense of humour about it…. “Going on strike” more like it !!!
En Route we got overtaken by a Hastings once !
Still, she was a Gentleman’s aircraft, couldn’t lift much or fly very far so you got to get out and stretch your legs every few hours. Benson to Cyprus took TWO DAYS !
RPM…
RPM, FF, TGT…Inky:
XN814 was one of the early deliveries but from my log book I never flew in it so it must have been with 114 most of the time (I was on 267) and maybe went to Cottesmore after the amalgamation of 114 with 267. I can’t recall it being at Thorney with some of the other early ones.
That’s probably why Frank thinks the leader cable supernumerary tit should be on there.
Frank, you there ?
Few points….
1. I can’t see the tiny shadows that would be left by the bomb rack lugs down the side of the fuselage on the early ones.
2. Also, shouldn’t the fire door panel on the side of the No.1 engine cowl be red ? Engines were started 4,3,2,1 because the double spring back fire doors (for insertion of a CO2 nozzle) were on the LHS of the nacelles.
3. AAPP exhaust exit, now where was that ? Memory, memory ?
What was 114’s Motto… “With speed we strike” ? In an Argosy, you have to be joking !!!
Nevertheless – “Looking weally-weally niiice !”
RPM…
RPM, FF, TGT…For J Boyle:
No, I was not thinking of any insincerity, that’s not why we are here discussing this. I have had many and varied questions thrown at me and in truth I have been able to support most of them.
I am confident with what is written on the map edge, yes. There are two main reasons why.
One reason is that in signals from the unit I have found a message that went to their headquarters on the morning after they returned to base which said, “The Patrol report will be available ot 0900 hours together with a/c plates”. The abbreviation “a/c” is elsewhere in the signals when referring to aircraft as in: “Beaufort a/c will carry out antimalaria spraying at 1000 hours”… on such and such a date.
Now finding “plates” was a bit of a surprise because the Vets only mention the one “tag” that was found wired to the engine mount on the detached engine that was examined. So even if one plate or tag was sent to their HQ and eventually found its’ way to the USAAF in Port Moresby then “data” has already been recorded.
The second reason is because of the statement by the ex-W.O. when I interviewed him in 1995. He said that when he saw the “tag” hanging by wire from the tubing behind the engine he removed it and looked at it. He said, “It had a string of letters and numbers on it which didn’t mean anything to me so I put it in my pocket and when we got back, I handed it in with the patrol report”. So, he saw a “string of letters and numbers” on a tag. I am now suggesting that “600H/P S3H1 C/N1055” definitely is a string of letters and numbers.
A third reason also is that the map was always in the possession of one member of the same unit after WWII, he kept it for 48 years until 1993 when he handed it to the Vet who first saw the engine on the jungle floor in 1945.
“Wilkins” Mr. Boyle, Wilkins. Who is Watkins ?
For those that do not know who Sir Hubert Wilkins was…. He was born in South Australia. He rose to lead expeditions to the Antarctic and the Arctic and was knighted for his services to “The British Empire”. Wilkins name pops up because he was operating the Lockheed Electra 10E, formerly known as “The Daily Express” up in the Arctic when some Russian fliers went missing in one of those huge pre-WWII six-engined bomber aircraft somewhere above the Arctic Circle while flying from Russia to the United States for a visit. The Russians hired Wilkins and the Electra to search for the fliers. The Electra was fitted with skids and flew with the gear legs down but was still able to achieve flights of 22 hours. The Russians were so impressed by the Electra that they bought it.
Yes, I remember the date of the Japanese invasion at Rabaul because it is of significance to me for a personal reason !!!
All one should say is that “The Americans” absolutely adore conspiracy theories and leave it at that. These conspiracy theories have muddied the waters for many a year and what with the Japanese conspiracy theories and the Bolamites theories and that dreadful pair of books “Amelia Earhart Lives” and “Amelia Earhart Survived” and the Monsignor in Rumson NJ shaving Amelia’s head to look for microchips, well, you couldn’t write it yourself and then wonder why people who do aren’t incarcerated !!
Fleet 16B
I believe we’ve had this conversatiion before but I still say the Contingency Plan was said to Vidal when he asked her what she would do if she could not find Howland and logically, it would make sense to turnback for the Gilberts to hit the spread of the island chain. Vidal was interviewed before he left us and the tape is in the Uni of Wis.
I had a minor panic just the other day when I thought for a time that I had left my mobile HDD’s on an aircraft which left me sweating for a bit but then I steadied down and took a deep breath. Happens to us all at some stage.
Tangmere 1940
The price tag I mentioned of 2.5 Mill is my estimation of what it would cost to get the P-38 out and treated. This based on the cost of a barge capable of putting steel pilings around it (think Halifax in the Zuider Zee) then pumping some of the seawater out. Manufacture of a “Cradle Kit” that can be inserted under the P-38 and assembled underneath to support the wreck. Flushing out all the sand that is inside the wreck booms, wings and fuse… The structure will be so fragile and the skins so thin after all that time in seawater that one false move will see the wreck break up. Then, getting a floating crane in there to lift out the cradle and wreck onto a multi wheeled bogie truck to get it off the beach. Building a large water tank to put the cradle containing the wreck into water (fully immersed). Continual flushing by changing the water. Adding chemicals to the now fresh water to “arrest” any further corrosion leave it for about six months in that solution and then you can display it. What you will have is a grey coloured mangled piece of aluminium which will not look like other P-38’s that people have seen in photos.
Is it worth the effort ? This could be the very reason why Mr. Gillespie and TIGHAR are sitting on their hands.
As for the Do17…….. I recall I have seen a nice example of the Do17 in a Museum at Linkoping in Sweden or was that a Ju88 ? Ah, memory, such a good thing to have.
Bob
Is this Milkmaid a modern day Nell Gwynne then ? Maybe Mr. Gillespie of TIGHAR should put her under contract and issue more Heraldic Scrolls for successful liaisons……
RPM…
RPM, FF, TGT…Aaah, Mr. Boyle, you’ve altered your post to include more information… tricky dicky
For J Boyle:
You said it yourself…the Japanese did not make Model 10’s and what is written on the map edge is in reference to a Model 10, pure and simple. Not in reference to Model 14’s.
Lockheed serialising decrees Model 10 sequencing numbers to start with 10 not 14. What you are saying infers chalk is mixed with cheese…t’ain’t so.
Also, correct me if I am wrong… Model 14’s used a “bigger” engine ? Bigger than 550 or 600 Horsepower (?) Yes ? Wright Cyclones maybe ? Yes ?
Certainly, the Australian Patrol members were non-aviation types, no question. Also certainly they make no pretence of even trying to identify the aircraft wreckage they saw, it is not them doing that, it is me on the evidence displayed both on the map and in the verbal descriptions by the veterans, only two left now, incidentally.
Certainly they were interested enough to bring it to the attention of the world if the world would listen but they had no idea what the aircraft was when they saw it in the jungle in 1945.
Can we say the Japanese manufacture case is closed, perhaps (?).
I have also looked through Japanese aircraft records of types used in New Guinea. If you can convince me that a captured Lockheed 10 A, B or C was used in the Rabaul area, armed or unarmed, then you have my attention despite the disparity in engine types.
I say this because ALL Lockheed Models 10 A, B and C have been accounted for. All Model 10E’s have been accounted for except for “The Daily Express” and Earhart’s Electra. It is believed that “The Daily Express” is on the Russian Steppes somewhere as it was sold to Russia after the Sir Hubert Wilkins Expedition in the Arctic.
Who was Sir Hubert Wilkins you ask ? Google him.
Earhart’s Electra, C/N 1055, on the evidence, is on New Britain.
Mr. Boyle, I gave up asking people for money a long time ago. We will go it alone, it is after all, less complicated and so far, my experience has been that eyes light up with dollar signs and that avarice and greedy fingers are not needed here.
RPM
RPM, FF, TGT…Evidence of a tailwind…
For J Boyle:
The whole scenario that we know of smacks of an increase in the wind way above the forecasted 12-15 mph that was given to Earhart by the Meteorologist at Pearl Harbour.
How anybody can set off into the Pacific with a weather forecast issued from Pearl, thousands of miles away from LAE is beyond me, but that is what she did. There are lots of “no other alternative” incidents for this World flight and that forecast from Pearl Harbour is but one.
The University of Texas has some graphic maps made by the USN of the wind and temperature patterns over the Pacific Ocean that were made during WWII as before WWII there was absolutely no information to the USN about what the weather was down in the South Pacific. It is reported that even the USS Colorado that was on the search initially relied on an old “Whaling Book” showing charts of the Ocean before they got the decent S.Pacific chart that was eventually used. Therefore, when WWII a few years later started they had to have the weather details information in “kind of” a hurry.
The graphic map in the U of T for July prevailing winds shows winds from the East blowing almost 90 degrees across the Pacific. The winds come down from N. America and up from S. America and join up and then go straight across the middle of the Pacific and split when they reach The Solomons and New Guinea. You can Google that graphic yourself if you wish to see it.
When I started on this I contacted Bracknell Meteorological Centre in the U.K. as they have records from the former British “Colonial” areas and I obtained the monthly records for July 1937 for Funafuti in the Ellis Islands and for Tulagi in The Solomons. The winds are all from the East or from the East-South-East for the whole of the month and surface winds of 16 knots are not uncommon. The wind direction does not shift much at all from due East. These seasonal winds are known in New Guinea as “the South-East Trades”….
Furthermore, and our friend Stepwilk will absolutely love this next bit but I don’t mind giving him a bit of rapturous pleasure…..;) makes the world go around…
When Mr. Gillespie of TIGHAR issued a CD with his book “Finding Amelia” the CD has the weather records from two USCG ships which are of interest. These are the Ontario, which was at the halfway point between LAE and HOW and the Swan which was halfway between HOW and Hawaii.
Ontario reports surface winds of 20 knots from nearly due east (087 I recall, don’t quote me) and was making revolutions to stay on station. Swan reported almost the same value winds but slightly north-easterlies (which fits somewhat with the USN graphic in the U of T)…. and was also making revolutions to stay on station. At one point Swan lost it and had to do a racetrack to get back on station. You can see that in the recorded ship directions and locations from the log. Obviously the ship directions in these record logs are “into wind”, ships do not lay “on position” side on to wind….
Earhart herself reported a wind of 25 mph at 7,000 feet as she approached NUKUMANU Island. My research and finding is that the Electra was not flown on the direct route LAE-HOW initially but went via CHOISEUL Island in the Solomons due to there being a reported storm off the S-E of New Britain. The detour only added 35 Sm. On leaving CHO and heading for NUK, on this sector and when they should have been at NUK, they found themselves 20 Sm to the West of NUK and had to alter course to be overhead NUK. That is shown by the 0718GMT radio call giving Lat/Long.
A simple Vector diagram of that sector made at 12 mph wind value from the East with the Electra doing 140-150 mph will indeed show that the Electra would be blown 20 miles to the West of the island if the wind value is input at 25 mph. It is simple to show that.
Years ago I made up a small MS Excel programme where I could alter the speed of the Electra and the wind value such that I had to arrive overhead the Ontario at 1036 GMT based on reaching the ship in six minutes ( I work in 10ths of an hour when doing this) after the 1030GMT “Ship in sight ahead call”. Based on what we do know, there is no way I could get the Electra overhead the Ontario on the time of 1036GMT unless I increased the wind value at 10,000 feet (she climbed after NUK) to 35 mph. As we do know, wind velocities invariably increase the higher the altitude.
So, J Boyle, she was bucking a headwind, all the evidence points that way. Therefore, when she turned back she would undoubtedly have a tailwind.
Now, Mr. Boyle !!! The Japanese didn’t get to Rabaul until 23 January 1942 when the Invasion took place and we are talking here of the Electra disappearing into the trees on July 3rd 1937….. Japanese Lockheeds built under licence were not Model 10’s and did not have P & W R-1340 S3H1 engines, so that does not figure in the scenario at all. Even if the wreck had been a Japanese bare metal aircraft from WWII it would have had a somewhat large and colourful blob of paint on the side of the fuselage….. and funny writing somewhere as well !
RPM.
RPM, FF, TGT…Clues from an Australian WWII patrol…
Nachtjagd…. Indeed, the very same. For 16 years now and I am planning another visit for 2011.
Basically, without going into 16 years of researching….
Their Radio was HF, principally on 3105 and 6210 Kcs. No VHF. Many people are unaware that HF can be heard, depending on atmospherics, for thousands of miles and a reception of Strength 5 (S5) does not mean that the transmitting station is right on top of the receiving station. That knowledge has escaped many people, they can’t understand it and they reject that plain fact. I say again, HF can be heard for thousands of miles depending on atmospherics…..
Their DF was HFDF (“HuffDuff”) which was in its’ infancy in the thirties and it would appear that Earhart did not have a clue how to employ the set she had to her full advantage. On top of that the frequencies by selection from a list on the box is reported to have been messed up and what Freq. she selected was not necessarily what she got.
So, yes, she was within range of the USCG ITASCA at Howland since about 14:15 hours into the flight (approximately 400 miles east of Nauru on track) until 20:14 hours into the flight and luckily those hours correspond to 1415GMT/2 July and 2014GMT/2 July respectively. The last call heard by ITASCA was at 2014GMT/2 July.
What happened after 2014GMT/2 July and where they actually were at that time is open to interpretation.
They had been searching for one hour by that time after arriving (as they thought) in the vicinity of HOW at 1912 GMT/2 July as evidenced by a call, “We must be on you but cannot see you…” perhaps the most famous of all the calls and the most disheartening.
Yet we do have author, Fred Goerner’s account of a Radio call he found in a US Navy file which reported that Nauru Radio had picked up a call on 6210Kcs which was “Land in sight ahead..” Goerner was mystified by this call which appears in the First Edition of his book, “The Search for Amelia Earhart”. Only Nauru Radio picked up this call. Goerner’s words in the book put the timing of the call at 2200GMT/2 July or one and three-quarters of an hour “after” the supposed “last call” at 2014GMT/2 July. If only Nauru heard it, it means that the Electra was out of range of the ITASCA, ie; “going away from” the ITASCA.
As I said before, Earhart had a Contingency Plan to return to The Gilberts if she could not find HOW. That Contingency Plan was found in Gene Vidal’s tapes which are in the University of Wisconsin.
So, if she called at 2200 GMT/2 July, where was she ? Well in 1 3/4 of an hour at a power setting to give 150 mph in still air (which was her normal modus operandi) and with a tailwind of 20-25 mph, she would travel about 300 Statute Miles. The “land in sight” had to be one of The Gilbert atolls and I favour either TABITUEA or NONOUTI Atolls. This means on the flip side, that she was at least 200 Statute Miles “short” of HOWLAND.
What to do now ? It is my contention that the “fuel running low” Tx was a notice that she was starting to get down to her Contingency Fuel. Neither Earhart or Noonan were stupid. She did have the contingency so therefore she would have “contingency fuel”. I believe that amount to have been 300USG.
She would not expect to see The Gilberts for four hours if she thought she was at or lateral to HOW when she turned back. She would burn 160 USG in a return in four hours. If she is now seeing The Gilberts after 1 3/4 hours she will only have burnt 70 USG.
Indeed, what to do now ? She would know she can make Ocean Island, Nauru Island, Nukumanu Island, easily…. The Mortlocks, Carteret Reef , New Ireland, Bougainville or maybe Rabaul with its’ two airstrips were also on the cards “IF” she can get the fuel burn down.
In March 1937 she had made her first attempt at a World Flight and flew from Oakland in California to Wheeler Field on OAHU in Hawaii. At the fourteen hour point she realised that with the groundspeed they were making she would arrive at Wheeler in the dark so she pulled back the power until as she says in her book, “We are at 10,000 feet, 120 mph (which must have been CIAS) and I am using less than 20 USGPH”. It’s there on Page 37 of her book “Last Flight” in print and in her own handwriting on the opposite page.
There are those that say: “20 USG ‘per’ engine” but that cannot be as 40 USGPH is above the CRUISE power setting of 38 USGPH and here we have Earhart trying to slow the ship down so as not to arrive in the dark, not continue at Cruise speed….. Duhhh !!
So, if 230 USG were left and 20 USGPH is used the Electra can endure for at least 11 Hours at 120 CIAS (TAS) and with a tailwind of 25 mph at 10,000 feet the Groundspeed will be 145 mph. As the ship gets lighter (and everything of no use is thrown out the back door), the speed can be maintained by less fuel. There is also the possibility of a 12,000 feet altitude as she had flown the Electra at 12,000 feet in the States. Even less fuel usage.
11 x 145 = 1595 Statute Miles.
Distance from Nonouti Atoll to Rabaul = 1580 Statute Miles.
Would anyone crashland in a serviceable aircraft with fuel, on an atoll given the circumstances and the choice ?
At 0825GMT, 0831 GMT, 0843 GMT and 0854 GMT, 3rd July 1937, Nauru Radio hears four unintelligible Tx’s on 6210Kcs with no hum of plane in the background BUT, the Nauru operator said it sounded like the same voice he had heard the night before. Was the Electra in a glide with the power pulled right back ?
Those times are 6:25pm to 6:54pm Rabaul Local time. Who in hell would be up in the air after dark in the South-West Pacific transmitting on 6210Kcs ? Also, does the sequencing (spacing) of the calls remind any aircrew of a pattern ? Reads to me of a Station trying to raise another Station and as Gentlemen we would pick up the horn and say, “May I relay for you”, but there was nobody else up there to do that…..
In April 1945, a patrol of Australian soldiers bumped into an unpainted, all-metal, twin-engined aircraft which had Pratt & Whitney engines, they couldn’t see any military insignia and the wreck was corroded on the front of the engines and appeared to have been there several years. They reported it in and because of the engines it was reported to the USAAF who replied five and a half weeks later that it was NOT one of their aircraft but it could be a Lockheed. Some of the Veterans remembered the Lockheed bit, some did not. An Officer read out from a signal to the unit of what the USAAF had said.
So, that’s it Nachtjagd, read of it what you may….. I am convinced, all I need is someone with some money to back us and we’ll find it PDQ….
struggling on with our own finances is becoming wearing.
RPM.
RPM, FF, TGT…Stepwilk, The White Knight charges in (again)…..
JT442, says that Scientists have cautioned that the bone could be from the flipper of a turtle.
How true that is as only today, the venerable Dr. Tom King has said the very same thing to me in an email. The “phalange” as he calls it, in answer to my question as to why the supposed “finger-bone” hadn’t been tested for DNA before the TV Documentary is because he didn’t consider it to be a “finger-bone” until somebody pointed out that not all the bones they had were turtle bones. That does not mean they were human either….
Now, you would think, wouldn’t you, that Gillespie would halt any mention of the “phalange” being human until the DNA Lab had done its’ work, but no, he’d rather cause a Media frenzy to gain attention. So now, when the “phalange” does turn into a turtle bone, like so many times before he will say simply, “We were wrong”, if he can bring himself to do it.
Avion ancien says that there is not much else to admire about TIGHAR. Well, in a lot of ways he is right because the perception is that TIGHAR only looks for sheckels to fund “holidays in exotic places” as one humourous contributor said in another thread concerning the P-38 in Wales on this forum. The real work of TIGHAR is not Gillespie, it is the volunteers who do the digging and they hardly get a mention and are certainly not the first to get to the microphone, the loud hailer or the TV Camera.
The very title of the organisation is misleading for in truth they have not recovered one solitary aircraft from anywhere.
For me, TIGHAR is useful for I can separate the wheat from the chaff and use the “good bits” and reject the overblown bits.
And now onto the good fellow Stepwilk, who steps up to the plate everytime someone criticises TIGHAR.
Well Stepwilk, you can’t criticise me like you tried to do before because now you know that I have been into the New Britain jungle twelve times, looking for an elusive all-metal unpainted twin-engined aircraft with Pratt & Whitney R-1340 S3H1 engines which we firmly believe from written evidence on a WWII map carries the Construction Number 1055 – Earharts’ Electra 10E.
I am not one of those mean-spirited people you speak of and furthermore I have hardly touched the barrel of OPM that TIGHAR has dipped into to the tune of at least US$5 Million with zero results. I and my team have spent our own money, about US$120,000.00 of it in our searches. We have received some help from the U.S. but only to US$32,000.00 and most of that has come from one lady in L.A.. So just rein in your vitriol.
I too will enjoy crow being eaten Stepwilk, it works both ways.
Tankbarrel, in a word, NONE.
Tangmere1940. No, you did not imagine it and only today, it is two shoes I heard, one woman’s and one man’s…. Or maybe I’m getting confused as I recall from all the postings on the TIGHAR Forum, only ONE Shoe.
Gillespie always talks of his “Scientific” approach to the Earhart Mystery…. Here is a funny little anecdote from a few years back. Remember, it is a “Scientific” approach….
Gillespie and one acolyte visited an English author at her home as they had requested that they be allowed to look at her research papers. She brought all the cartons of research down from upstairs and they arrived. They were in too much of a hurry, they said, and didn’t have time to go through all the numerous boxes the lady had laid out for them BUT, “SHAZAM”, the famous shoe sole was produced….. Drum Roll… “This is Earhart’s shoe sole” says our hero. Knowing that Earhart wore a 6 1/2 ladies shoe, the author said, “Looks more like a mans size 10 to me”… Whereupon our hero announced “Must be Noonan’s then…” True Scientific deduction.
In General
Nikumaroro is polluted in a sense that there have been happenings there which indicate that others have left evidence which could be misconstrued as evidence of Earhart and Noonan being there.
First there was the S.S. Norwich City which ran aground on the island in 1929 and 11 Crew were lost, only four of whom were buried in shallow graves in the coral. A later New Zealand survey party saw the beach littered with human bones and Gilbertese who went to the island later than that found a skull and other bones in 1940 and informed the British Colonial Officer who was there.
The bones were sent to Fiji where they were examined by a British Doctor named Hoodless who wrote that they were “Male, Pacific Islands origin, 4 foot 6 inches tall”. TIGHAR find Hoodless’s measurements of the bones in a British Museum and shove them through a computer and the computer says: “Female, Nordic origin, 5 feet 9 inches tall”, which just happens to coincide with Earhart. Only Dr. Hoodless handled and measured the bones, the computer did not.
Earhart’s Contingency Plan was to turn back for The Gilberts and put it down there, not to head off to the Phoenix Group from an unsure position. You cannot navigate from an unkown position to a known position. Better to turn back onto your reciprocal and head for a string of islands 500 miles long and at 90 degrees to your intended track. You are bound to hit one or see one.
In WWII there was a LORAN station on the island, manned by US Coast Guard and Navy personnel. When I was on Labuan Island in 1960 in British North Borneo, I and my mates used to go for walks around parts of the island, it is not difficult to imagine bored sailors doing the same on Gardner Island as it was then. When they pulled out they were bound to leave all sorts of stuff they didn’t want where it lay. The Americans are not famous for cleaning up their crap on leaving after WWII, ask any Solomon Islander or Bougainvillean about the hundreds and hundreds of WWII munitions still on those places.
Then there were the bronze bushes which were found by TIGHAR in the old Gilbertese Village on Nikumaroro. The Gilbertese had been sent there to start a coconut plantation and used carts to carry the coconuts in the process of producing Copra. It is not hard find a use for the bushes as bearings for the carts wheels on steel shafts yet TIGHAR explained that the bushes could possibly have come from an aircraft engine to which one of my household remarked, “Oh yes, the natives took the engines apart with Coconut spanners”.
Avion ancien. The P-38 in Wales is a perfect example of TIGHARS endeavours to raise money by the issue of those “corny” Heraldic Scrolls…. the very name applied to the P-38 by TIGHAR makes me cringe…..”The Maid of Harlech”… Eet ees Romantico Yes ? No, that P-38 was a gunnery range hack with no war service by accounts. Two and half years and counting and still no action ? I wonder why…..
Best estimates for raising that wreck out of the sand to ensure it does not break up in the lift out is around US$2.5 Million and what will you have when it is out ? A corroded piece of junk, yet TIGHAR says it is hardly affected by corrosion… Anybody seen an aluminium aircraft that’s been in the sea for a couple of years, never mind 65 ? I have, it is not pretty.
Squadron Leader Scramble shows us the skeletal picture of a turtle. Quite a resemblance to human hands and feet !!!
Ah well, I suppose it will all sort itself out in the end…
RPM…
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