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crobato

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  • in reply to: Pakistan, China agree to jointly develop AWACS #2514194
    crobato
    Participant

    Russians have clearly said that they are barred from telling everything. and specially anything related to technolgy transfer. they called it Military-Technical cooperation. and Rossoboronexport was established on Nov 4,2000 and working start properly two year later.

    You’re really full of BS. Russia is required by arms, UN treaties and by their own laws, to declare certain items when they are for export. Small things maybe you don’t need to, but entire platforms like A-50s, you certainly would.

    Why would Russia so obligingly provide AWACS technology to China when they’re trying their best to sell the complete platforms outright? That would be like cutting their own necks.

    this is from Nov, 2000 Washington Post.

    how AviationWeek excatly knew back in 2000 that 4 will be supplied by 2005.? which is the case now. why it is not 2 or 6?

    All of this does not constitute evidence of an actual sale.

    in reply to: Pakistan, China agree to jointly develop AWACS #2514584
    crobato
    Participant

    the same can be said about every thing else like Engines/Awacs. u sell the licenses of current versions and produce newer quickly to sell it later.

    Unfortunately if they did sell the A-50 license, the Russians would have admitted it and Rossoboronexport has to formally disclose it. It will have to go through the Russian General Staff and Putin would need to approve it. The size of such deal isn’t going to escape public attention or the sheer enthusiasm to advertise such a truimph for marketing purposes.

    http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/sh…l-31#post704595
    According to Yeliseyev, outright procurement is being discussed now, but it is also possible that the engine will be manufactured in China on license if it wishes

    Given the date of the article, it only means that Salut has changed their tone just lately, and only because they realized how soon the Chinese engine projects are close to completion. Back in the nineties, that was not certainly the case. China was viewed with much greater suspicion then and we know a fact then the Russians would deliberately withold technology. Don’t compare the situation in 1995 and 2005.

    that is the question. who did it?

    The conversion of the engine test bed was done in Russia. But the 3 Mainrings are clearly done in China (there are pictures of an IL-76 conversion and overhaul facility in China). They feature details such as dual ventral fins that are not present in the Beriev version of the Mainstay.

    have u seen anywhere in the world that AWACS conversion is done in 2 years. especially when u have no prior experiance and the previous one is done by some one else and have no data about the platform.

    Given the similarities of the KJ-2000 radar to the Phalcon, it stands more likely that China may have reaped enough information from the Israelis to do this project. The original A-50I plane itself, that was slated for the Phalcon and which became the first KJ-2000 ultimately, was modified with Israeli assistance. That is a mighty head start at least for the airframe and flight purposes.

    and technical data does not mean that they give construction details. it is just hearsey. Israelis could have done this for India from second hand stuff but they were unable.

    Sorry, but technical data also means giving construction details if you have engineers that are capable of analyzing the information. Furthermore it is quite likely that Chinese engineers are able to look at the Phalcon close enough, and given how much IAI had been in China and trying to secure Chinese contracts (radar for the J-8II, J-10 and J-7 for example), it stands Israel have their share of contribution with the sudden emergence of Chinese radar systems.

    The Chinese built a system that is simiilar to the Erieye, to the MPQ-53 used in the Patriot, to a near AEGIS like system in their destroyers without any formal assistance from Europe or the US. What makes you think they would have trouble doing a similar thing to the Phalcon and with a headstart provided by the Israelis themselves.

    in reply to: Pakistan, China agree to jointly develop AWACS #2514931
    crobato
    Participant

    the same can be said with Flanker license. why sell license when u can sell the end product for more money

    Except that at that time, Sukhoi badly needs the money, and it’s not going to turn it back on 2.5 billion. Besides the Su-27SK was fairly obsolete at that time and it does not pose competition against the more advanced Flankers. That is why Sukhoi was selling the MKK later to China even as J-11s are being built.

    It takes long time to make some thing better based upon license. and u can take money upfront from license and develop some thing better quickly instead of selling engines through all those years.
    ask swedes can they make F414 from F404 license after two decades. or making engine for FC-1 form RR Spey.

    Irrelevant. The Chinese engine projects appear to have been undergoing for years. Russians have no financial interest in speeding them up. The more years the Chinese engines don’t hit the operational service, the more the yearly window the Russians can sell their engines.

    Flanker benefit all segment of weopon industry from engines to weopons to radars. even u can sell more engines with twin fighter instead of single engine fighter.

    Except that Russia knows China isn’t going to build and buy that many Flankers. They signed up for 200 kits, which was cut down by half anyway. Whereas the potential market for the J-10 engines was anywhere between 1200 to 1500 engines. Plus another 500 engines for the FC-1. As the Russians was also hoping for radar sales on both J-10 and FC-1, you’re looking at the same quantity of fighter radars they hoped to sell.

    That’s a lot more than the Flankers.

    there is nothing official about it. i have seen salyut statement that if china is interested the are willing but for certain price.

    Produce the source.

    Your source is against the common knowledge that the engine license was never allowed in the first place and never was included in the bargaining table.

    Russia can manufacture IL-76 but they dont need it and not at this price. they will keep upgrading the current IL-76 for next 15 to 20 years and than replace it. Antnov does not have aircraft in this category. u are talking about 11 m antenna. even old A-50 9 m antenna is several tonnes.

    That’s bull. The IL-76 was produced in a plant in Kazakhastan which has been found out to be gutted and abandoned. To restart the IL-76 production in a plant in Russia, it turns out that it would require a significant investment and price increase that the Russians cannot adhere to the contract they signed with the Chinese. Chances are high the contract will be cancelled.

    As for Antonov not having an aircraft in that category you must be plain kidding.

    these are really old. alteast 18 years and with total life span of 20 years they need structural and engine upgradation.
    there havent been that many new built one in the 90s.
    http://www.ilyushin.org/eng/products/cargo/76td.html

    [/quote]

    Still they converted 3 of these old IL-76s into AWACS. China also bought another second hand IL-76 and converted that into an engine testbed.

    in reply to: Pakistan, China agree to jointly develop AWACS #2514965
    crobato
    Participant

    simply J-10 would be delayed by alteast 10 years. putting more for Flankers or forcing joint single engine fighter codevelopment for third world countries.

    But Russia sold them engines directly, so they made off hundreds of millions of dollars from it.

    Selling engine tech to China jeopardizes not just the J-10 engine buy, but also for the FC-1 and J-11 and whoever else, the potentially loss can amount to billions.

    Forcing China to buy more Flankers only benefit one segment of the Russian arms industry—Sukhoi—but not others, like Salut and Klimov. During J-10’s development, there was also other potential Russian buys, including Phazotron for the radar and Vympel and others for the missiles. So the Russians were looking to cash in big and did not expect the Chinese to turn around and use their own radars and missiles.

    I think license is more profitable than selling the engine. It seems chinese doesnt want to pay. because even after licensing u still have to pay for actually building the engine.

    Nope. China was interested in the license, but the Russians don’t want to sell period. It has nothing to do with the money and never even reached to that point of negotiation.

    here thing is alittle opposite from engines as they dont have fully functional AWACS. so they first have to upgrade it and later sell. so for that upgradation they might have sold the tech and later build there own.
    It is russian interest to make China depeded on IL-76 platform from Awacs to transport. and offcoures develop there own AWACS. just like Su-27SM from Su-30MK.

    That is complete nonsense. Russia can’t even manufacture the IL-76 anymore and what do you figure where Antonov is standing?

    If China wants to make more A-50, they can always pull more from their existing IL-76s, or buy second hand ones—there are plenty of civil IL-76s that transport passengers and cargo from the west of China to southern former Soviet Republics like Kazakstan. For a transport fleet, China can acquire Antonovs if Russia can’t produce IL-76s.

    Not to mention the technology going to the Y-8s.

    in reply to: Pakistan, China agree to jointly develop AWACS #2514971
    crobato
    Participant

    the same can also be said about there technical assistance sold for hefty sum?. they have sold alot of stuff that are in conflict with there own stuff. Su-30MK was developed before Su-27SM.

    And what technology did the Russians sold that were ever in direct conflict with their own stuff?

    For example, the Russians deliberately withheld engine technology to the Chinese because they wanted to sell as much of their own engines as possible.

    Whatever “hefty sum” the Russians may obtain from technical assistance, it won’t be matched by the hundreds of miillions to billions a complete platform order will bring.

    all reports mention selling of bombers and air refuellers. no mention is of AWACS.
    even the updated picture shows some kind of phased array. it was not before.
    http://www.beriev.com/eng/core_e.html

    And this is already operational and ready for export?

    in reply to: Pakistan, China agree to jointly develop AWACS #2515010
    crobato
    Participant

    China not buying the whole A-50 does not Exclude russian technical participation in Chinese AWACS program based on A-50. India/Israel has to wait 3 years just get a nod of Russia for antenna. Similarly Uzbek factory has wait for russian specialist to start work on IL-76 even if all components and documentation is supplied and workers are trained.
    I havent seen any report from 2005 of selling A-50. It was used just for exercises.
    u can see this from combat helicopter. there is no sale of combat helicopter.

    Sorry but it does exclude Russian participation because Russia is trying to sell the A-50 to China for a hefty sum, and assisting in developing a Chinese project would be direct conflict to that sale. Furthermore Russian A-50M wasn’t going to be done until later in the decade.

    And yes, the A-50 (Russian) was offered for sale in the exercises. The exercises are in reality just a marketing gimmick. Russia brought every ware and piece they hoped to sell to China in those exercises (you wonder why they have to bring one or two examples of everything) and got a contract for 38 IL-76s at the end of it.

    in reply to: Pakistan, China agree to jointly develop AWACS #2515016
    crobato
    Participant

    so u think tempering with IL-76 is similar to anyother aircraft?. not to mentioning the timeline invovled. they will never hide the name of India or any other customer. and see the logic of own funds and 50%

    It is clients. not a single customer.

    The A-50U was offered to China and in 2001 it was nearly signed, but never followed through. Russia still improved the A-50 and even attempted to market it again in 2005, but China was not longer interested.

    On the A-50 sent to Israel, that was returned long time ago to China.

    in reply to: JF-17 v. Mirage 2000 #2515926
    crobato
    Participant

    One would hope not.

    China will at least form one test, training and evaluation regiment, likely to end up in the FTTC. In full strength, this would be about 20 planes at least. However, it looks like all the early planes are going for the PAF first for that to happen.

    Compared to early production J-10, the FC-1’s avionics are frozen in a much later time, so they will be more advanced than the early J-10’s. I won’t be surprised if the radar matched or even exceed that of the early J-10 in range, and has more modes, until the next revision of J-10 comes along (though it does appear this may have recently happened too.)

    in reply to: JF-17 v. Mirage 2000 #2515939
    crobato
    Participant

    IMHO SD10 and Indian Astra are in the same lague.
    R77 is in diff league and so is Aim120D being the Best.

    Range figures don’t have an ounce of value in them unless you specify the framework which the missiles are launched. What altitude? What is the launch speed in particular and where is the direction of the target and if it is coming head on or not.

    crobato
    Participant

    I would rate MiG-21 to MiG-23 as the same generation.

    Although Russia did give China MiG-9s, she did not deploy them in force and in effect missed is the first generation of jet fighters which from the Me-262 above. MiG-15/17 was in effect, China’s first generation.

    in reply to: JF-17 v. Mirage 2000 #2515975
    crobato
    Participant

    The wing area of the FC-1 appears very similar to an F-16C, but with an empty weight of 6400kg vs 8500kg for the F-16C, that is two tons lighter.

    So that high wing loading argument is pure bull.

    crobato
    Participant

    Which means we’ll actually see it in 2015 or so. Look how long it took for the first J-10 images to surface.

    You underestimate how fast the internet grew in China between 1998 and 2006.

    While it took a while for the first J-10 pics to come out, look how fast pics of the Yuan, the 022, the KJ-2000/200, the various Y-8 variants, the 052B/C and 054/054A came out.

    Pics of the ships are so fast they are out in the internet the moment they left the dock.

    There is a huge internet audience for this sort of matters. Inside China, there may be as many as 500,000 enthusiasts, all hungry for information. And there are people willing to take the risk of shooting such pictures to be an internet geek legend.

    in reply to: JF-17 v. Mirage 2000 #2516549
    crobato
    Participant

    J-10 is not much bigger than JF-17. They almost have the same length. The “bigness” is more in the greater weight and engine power.

    You’re not going to get brand new Mirage 2000s unless you buy them second hand. The production line is closed and the contract cost of getting one is not much lower than getting a Rafale.

    The Mirage 2000 isn’t a much larger plane than the JF-17 either. It’s shorter and about slightly more than a ton heavier. It does have more power and wing area.

    in reply to: Chinese News, Photos, and Speculation #10 #2516601
    crobato
    Participant

    Don’t worry, compared to Arthur who could find himself hard to blend into the remote Chinese countryside background, you could easily blend yourself into the crowded tourist group while looking out into the sky for clues of J10.

    The picture does wantto convey the message now J10 is in Guilin which to the happiness of the fans, now they can enjoy the holiday while have a close look at fighter. No need repeat Arthur’s experience of roaming the country road in a shaky bike or Skoda n order to access remote Chinese airfields.
    :p

    From the SDF, this is allegedly a video shot of a J-10 in Guilin.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCmXQoIrSps

    in reply to: Chinese News, Photos, and Speculation #10 #2517278
    crobato
    Participant

    I’m not too hot with the pic myself. Lighting is not consistent with the rest of the picture.

    I’m confident that 2nd Division being an elite division may get J-10, and as I said before, I predict every Military Region command will end up with having at least one J-10 regiment. So you have one now on Sheyang MR under the 1st Division, one in Nanjing MR under the 3rd Division, and now in Guangzhou MR under the 2nd. The next will have to be Jinan MR followed by Lanzhou MR. I am guessing that the 19th Division may be next, and with Lanzhou MR, either the 6th Division or the 37th.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,516 through 1,530 (of 3,939 total)