as being a major player much past 2025.

You’re going to have a lot of Super Hornets being retired prematurely then.

Given we still have mid-1980s F/A-18A+ still doing deck time, I doubt this.

Plus with only 260 F-35Cs (+80 for Marines) planned, by making the F-35 the mainstay of the fleet, that reduces the USN fighter fleet considerably.

Especially as they’re taking delivery of 515 F/A-18E/Fs and 114 EA-18Gs and that still leaves a shortfall in fighters.

I guess they’re going to do the same thing as the Chinese with their older airframes – reduce their fleet by 60-80%. :p

(Sorry that was cheap shot but I couldn’t resist it).

EDIT Also forgot to mention that USN has already cut total F-35 requirement from 480 a/c to 260 (+80 for USMC) and recently stated they’re weren’t sure whether they’d buy all of those current planned.

Once every two to three minute. That was the rate of firing at Yeonpyung Island shelling.

And most do not reach Seoul..

The SCUDS/FROGS etc do.

There are cities close to DMZ as well as military installations that would be devastated by all the shorter 76.2/122/152mm etc.

There is a reason why North Korea didn’t strike the mainland DMZ; they were well aware of the counter battery.

Counter battery is different in a minor skirmish and different in an all out attack.

The element of surprise is extremely important.

US may not, but the ROK does.

I don’t think they do (at least not in first several hours of a North Korean attack).

The airforce would be up to its neck in shooting down North Korea’s rust buckets.

That means lack of assets for SCUD/MLRS/SPG hunting.

So you now know what triggers an automatic ROK invasion of North Korea.[/QUOTE]

Cool!

Wrong, North Korea has only 300 artillery pieces capable of reaching Seoul, and these would be neutralized in the matter of hours.

Do you realise how quickly you can fire an artillery piece?

There’s also a heap of SCUDs, FROGs etc.

The first salvo at South Korea is estimated at over 10,000 rounds. One estimate I saw 500,000 rounds an hour for several hours.

Sure that’s all your ammo gone but it’s a case of use it or lose it.

If the North launched a surprise attack, there would considerable damage caused by all these obsolete systems.

And South Korea and stationed US forces lack the strength to dispose of North Korean airforce, rocket forces and artillery forces in a matter of hours.

You mean the resumption of war. That incident does not trigger an automatic invasion of North Korea in the current war manual; the popular revolt and the transfer of North Korean nukes outside of North Korea does.

We never mentioned popular revolt or transfer of North Korean nukes.

If the South Koreans are mobilised and in wartime positions, then I imagine Seoul would suffer massive damage from arty fire, but within a day or two all that northern arty would be gone (SK has very good counter battery radars) and the NK armies shattered. If the NK air force came up in numbers, then there would be scads of SK aces. In short……the NK forces would be slaughtered.

And South Korea’s infrastructure and population centres would be devastating.

Ultimate phyrric victory.

It’s why South Korea did not declare war after the sinking of that corvette by a North Korean submarine, even though under any other conditions that’s a declaration of war.

Remember USA declared war on Spain for USS Maine and they reckon that was a boiler explosion! Or Gulf of Tonkin incident.

I doubt they would help if South Korea attacked the North either.

As stated they don’t want WWIII on their hands.

It’s like the discussions about the Cold War turning Hot – when do you engage? Take over of West Berlin? Limited actions in Baltic?

The old saying was “is it better to be Red than Dead?”

I think the Chinese would play the peace making diplomat whilst trying to prevent their borders being overrun by North Korean refugees.

They’d glean as much intel out of it of course..

Scrapping the F-35A would be all the nails in the coffin for US fighter exports.