thobbesTrue I agree but remember one thing. Most of the 4.5 Generation will be out of production in the next several years.
This is mere speculation on your part.
Indian production alone will take Rafale into 2020s especially if options are exercised.
And that means other potential sales – if Rafale is being built in 2020 then it can win orders in 2020.
Same for Gripen (Swiss aircraft will be delivered 2018-2021) and Eurofighter.
And as someone else showed, Flanker production is gauranteed to 2020.
And as stated some of those other countries are getting ready to order fighters and F-35s aren’t on the menu.
And if a Eurocannard wins an order that extends production to 2025, that means opportunities exist for orders in 2020-25 period.
Basically you’re saying one thing for Eurocannards/Flankers and another for F-35.
thobbesScooter, I NEVER SAID ANYONE HAS DROPPED F-35.
But you don’t get it or that Europe has more than 5 countries and that F-35 will not be adopted by all of them.
Point is operating a Eurofighter or Gripen is as “NATO compatible” as F-35.
France has only purchased French Fighters for the last 30 years
So say Belgium buys Rafales. It can now plug into French AF for “interoperability.”
And if I want an air policing jet ala Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary and in future countries like Portugal, Croatia and Slovakia then who cares about NATO operability?
thobbesThere’s a lot of procurement processes that will be happening between now and 2020.
These include:
Brazil
Canada
Denmark
Finland
Kuwait
Malaysia
Qatar
South Korea
UAE
F-35 isn’t even in some of these competitions especially lucrative UAE/Middle East.
This is why the F-35 won’t be the next F-16.
There’s too many procurements happening now that will provide aircraft for next 20-30 years.
Will any of these countries that opt for Eurocannard/Super Hornet/Flanker (Malaysia) be wanting to buy F-35s in 2030-2040?
thobbesDid I ever say anyone dropped the F-35?
Don’t know if you know but Europe consists of a lot more countries than just the 5 who are signed up for F-35.
And some of those countries are already committed to other airframes for next several decades including powerhouses France and Germany.
Hence nothing wrong with buying Eurocanards as you’re interoperable with other European countries that operate them.
Current Eurofighter orders are higher than current stated F-35 requirements in Europe.
And who knows, someone non-F-35 might win in Denmark!
thobbesUntil you can support any of those claims its just your opinion. As nobody has left the F-35 Program and order something different.
What opinion?
How many NATO partners DID NOT participate in Libya with combat air power? Portugal/Greece/Poland/Croatia/Romania/Czech Republic/Slovakia/Bulgaria.
How many NATO partners DID NOT participate in Afghanistan with combat air power?
Portugal/Greece/Poland/Croatia/Romania/Czech Republic/Slovakia/Bulgaria/Turkey/Spain/Canada
Rafales were deployed in Afghanistan and Libya and Eurofighter and Gripen were deployed in Libya.
And last I checked France, UK, Spain, Italy, Czech Republic, Hungary have ordered or currently operate Rafale/Eurofighter/Gripen.
I guess if it’s not related to F-35, it’s fiction. Guess the only parts of the world that exist are those that operate F-35s. :rolleyes:
thobbesThere have been debates in some NATO partner countries as to level of NATO Alliance participation.
Country X may decide to replace F-16 with JAS-39 or even Chengdu F-7 and keep these at home for airpolicing, whilst it’s NATO contribution is naval or army or air logistics forces.
A lot of smaller NATO partners don’t deploy combat jets either – Portugal and Greece come to mind as well as all the Eastern Europeans.
And a lot place restrictions on usage – e.g. local CAP only or no fly zone ops once air superiority has been established. You don’t need an F-35 for these kinds of patrols.
Besides last 2 NATO operations (Libya and Afghanistan) saw deployment of Eurocannards.
Finally Rafale and NATO-compatible Eurofighter are used by the major European air forces – Britain, France, Italy, Spain and Germany.
Two of these (Germany and France) will probably never operate F-35s while a third (Spain) hasn’t yet committed to any and might not buy them either. Gripens are also used by Czech Republic and Hungary.
Even Italy might not order them especially as there’s been some disatisfaction with profitability of F-35 industrial participation.
In any case F-35 acquisition by someone like Denmark is questionable if they can only scrape up a single squadron or if you want an airpolicing jet.
So by majority, you mean USA?
thobbesRespectfully, that is a very big “IF”! As Japan has no experience designing 5th Generation Fighters. As a matter of fact the most recent example of developing a fighter was the F-2. Which, was not entirely successful. Even then it had a great deal of help for the US and Lockheed Martin.
Plus, Japan would have to commit a great deal of resources to take on such large and complex project.
Lastly, todays Fighter Programs take “decade” to develop and produce. So, considering Japan hasn’t even started except a very general concept. The F-3 if it ever happens would be a good 20-25 years off!
Honestly, South Korea is in a similar situation. You can bet both countries are taking a very hard look and asking if developing such types is worth it. From what I’ve heard it’s not sounding positive in either case.
I suspect they don’t care about the resources or time. As stated before, there’s a whole heap of other issues influencing development of a fighter – national pride, local industry participation, greater independence, balance of trade, industry development, political brownie points etc etc.
It’s not all about China.
And while USA is looking after security in Asia Pacific region, there’s plenty of time and resources to play with a domestic fighter.
After all look at protracted and costly F-2 history – it would’ve made more sense to buy F-16C Blk 50/52.
But those other issues overrode it and the Japanese got a stupidly expensive, less capable F-16.
thobbesScooter, Japan has only ordered 4 F-35s with other 38 to be batch purchased. These will replace last 2 F-4 units (301 and 302 Hikotai).
I’ve provided a link that talks about the actual order in another post.
However you are struggling to understand difference between an order and a requirement.
is supported by more and more interests and orders by countries like Japan, Israel, and very likely Singapore.
All of these are known customers and in case of Israel their requirement for at least 100 F-35s has been known for a long time – since 2003!
Yet you talk about this as if it’s news. It’s not.
The interesting part of F-35 will be how it will fare in open comps (Denmark, Canada and later this decade Finland, Belgium etc).
Only news is Singapore.
thobbesSu-30 seems like a good option for Iraq. Good range and reasonable capability.
Rafale would be next due to “no US strings attached.”
thobbesCutbacks do seem in order.
I really can’t see Egypt replacing 200 1970s vintage combat jets. Even some of the F-16s and the Mirage 2000s are getting long in the tooth.
I guess they’ll keep the airframes on paper though, with eventual cutbacks created by units simply flying less and less hours, less airframes being overhauled and more airframes being cannibalised.
Seems to be the way for a lot of poorer airforces that like to play the power game.
200 F-16s is a good enough force.
I really can see Egypt buying some JF-17s though – just because they went the Chinese path with massive K-8 buy.
thobbesWRONG, WRONG, WRONG, AND WRONG! Really, you need to get off this kick that Japan isn’t going to purchase more F-35’s and may in the end buying even less. I have no idea where you get such an idea. As it isn’t coming from any official source. Nor, is it even supported by common logic. As China is vastly increasing her own Armed Forces. Spending Billions upon Billions for the development of Aircraft Carriers to Stealth Fighters. So, what is Japan to do….hmm wait decades to develop its own 5th Generation Fighter or what buy the Russian PAK-FA???:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
I never said they weren’t going to purchase more F-35s.
However the purchase of 42 is not 100%. It may happen but there is a possiblility it won’t.
You’re ignoring a whole heap of factors – domestic issues, domestic politics, differing funding requirements, competing defence requirements, industry requirements etc.
F-2 purchase was curtailed and replacement jets aren’t even being sought for 12 F-2s written off in tsunami.
One would think F-15 upgrade would be uber critical but even that’s been reduced in scope partially due to funding being diverted to C-2/P-1.
When one looks at Chinese rearmament and corresponding rearmament by neghbouring countries, the neighbouring countries aren’t doing much – a few Flankers by Vietnam (still mainly MiG-21/SU-22), a small F-35 buy and small F-15 upgrade for JASDF, small JAS-39 buy for Thailand.
I guess they all figure Uncle Sam is there to wield the big stick.
The biggest rearmaments are being done by Singapore and South Korea. South Korea was aiming for blue water capability.
So who knows how many F-35s Japan will have in 2030.
thobbesWhat missiles did they get – AIM-7M/AIM-9M?
I was more thinking of until capability is rebuilt.
Operating 2+ types could cause a lot of headaches logistically and removes synergies in things like training (i.e. a lot easier building up expertise on 1 type than 2).
thobbesBerkut, nice. I’ve only got standard CD – very good EP!
As for Iraqi AF, shouldn’t they stick to 1 types for timebeing to develop capability as well as ease maintenance and logistical requirements?
thobbesJapan’s not so certain – AH-64 acquisition program stopped after 10-12 out of 60 odd airframes were delivered and F-15 upgrade program seems to have been decreased to just 16 a/c. Also the F-2 procurement program was curtailed before all planned aircraft were delivered.
And to add wierdness into the mix, they’ve just brought several ex-US KC-130Rs.
Japan’s current procurement seems strange – lots of indigenous programs that don’t seem to be going anywhere coupled with small deliveries of aircraft.
So while Japan might acquire 42 F-35, they might also acquire less.
And given Japan’s recent history, any reduction is not a criticism of F-35 capabilities but rather JASDF procurement practices.
thobbesDefinitely dispersed air bases – I saw photos of F-16s operating from highways but my goole fu is weak today.
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