I can understand training in Pakistan and Egypt – both are F-16 operators.

A few things about Singapore:

1. Singapore practices dispersed runways tactics – i.e. using road networks. F-35B’s STOVL is useful here.

2. Singapore is the premier AF in SE Asia (and is comparable to RAAF). Since the 1990s it always brought the latest US combat gear (F-16C/D-52, F-15SG. AH-64D). There’s a bit of national pride there in addition to operational requirements.

The F-35 purchase would’ve happened even if Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand brought Sopwith Camels.

3. I think in some ways, Singapore views itself as in the same boat as Israel – surrounded by large, threatening neighbours and much like Israel it strives for an overkill level technological edge.

Unlike Israel, Singapore also maintains a numerical edge against countries with much bigger populations.

If the F-22 was available, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Singapore putting its hands up for some.

In fact if US built F-36 X-Wing + B-3 Deathstar combo was available, Singapore would be jumping on the bandwagon.

—-

I think the true test of F-35 marketability will be Danish, Canadian, Finnish, Belgian and other European comps.

I think the F-35 market is assured in Asia just like sales of F-5s and F-16s were assured. US aligned Asian states do not buy anything European.

As stated Latin America and Africa are largely non-markets and most of Middle East is a no-go.

Hence European fighter comps + Canada are where the F-35 will prove itself.

This sale was always going to happen.

Singapore hasn’t brought non-US since Hawker Hunters in the 1960s.

I was expecting Singapore’s first sale to be for 20-24 a/c as this is their usual purchase size as their squadrons are 20 a/c strong.

————-

I don’t think the death spiral will happen.

What I think will happen:

1. Reduced US orders – not cause the F-35 is crap, but because the current level of US defence spending is unsustainable.

2. Possible reduced European orders – again not because F-35 is crap, but because Europe has been on decline since WWI and they can’t afford their toys.

3. Some loss of orders due to delays – e.g. RAAF (but not total cancellation).

4. Success in Asia – Japan, Singapore and though most people don’t think it’ll happen, South Korea.

5. Israel will gobble up F-35s as fast as Uncle Sam is willing to provide them.

6. No real sales in Latin America or Africa – nothing new here.

7. Loss of sales to Middle East due to sensitivity of aircraft, Israeli issue and the fact that UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia and possibly Qatar and Kuwait are most likely going to go for Rafales or Eurofighters either now or in the near future..

Actually it’s more about my info being out of date! :p

Apologies!

Smaller site indeed but are we looking at a large force of F-35B’s(?) and some sizeable fraction of their number are going to be elsewhere for much of the time.

That will depend on whether both carriers get commissioned as fast jet carrying ships (or commissioned at all).

If only 1 carrier is acquired then the F-35s will be spending more time at land bases than at sea.