JSR you’re so wrong.

Russia is waiting for the global economy to get better and it will then purchase F-35s.

Sorry, Singapore and Thailand don’t get US Military Aid. Well, there goes that theory….;)

Thailand is relatively poor it was still flying 1960s vintage F-5A/Bs until recently. It buys in dribs and drabs as it can afford aircraft.

Singapore has always ordered in batches – smoothing out cash flow perhaps?

If, they could afford F-16’s they can afford F-35’s. (at some point)

Not necessarily – budgets have shrunk since 1990.

[quote]Because of the world economy hello! It’s like the car payment comment I just made. It would be cheaper to pay cash for that new car. Yet, if I don’t have the money in full and need a new car. I am just make payments. Cheaper long term no but most people do it![/qupte

What I don’t understand is this harping on about global economy.

That depends on many factors from threat to cost of ownership and a lot of things in between. Regardless, I didn’t say they needed more than 65 F-35’s. I was implying that if they order 50 today. Doesn’t mean they won’t purchase the remaining 15 in the future.

The issue is they’ve outlined a long term requirement. They’re not going to buy more than that requirement and probably won’t even buy the requirement if current trend over last 30 years is anything to go by.

Never said anybody was! I said at a number of countries ordering F-35A’s may in the future order F-35B’s.

Ermm why?

Have no idea what your talking and regardless. I don’t think its germane to the discussion at hand.

Don’t see your point. Some Purchased Western, Some New, Some Russian, Some Used. So what??? The point is the markets and options were far greater than today. Nor, doesn’t any of that make a case the F-35 won’t sell well today………..

Their market choice was not as wide as you might believe it to be.

Politics influences weapon sales. Belgium was not going to buy MiG-23MLA in 1983. Saudi Arabia was not going to buy Su-24 in 1991. Kazakhstan was not going to buy F-16s.

Why?

Because countries have alliances, friendships and cultural preferences.

Few are buying and most are waiting for a better economy and 5th Generation Fighters. Which, the F-35 will win the lion share.

If, you have another type that will surpass or even come close to the F-35 in sales. Then lets have it????;)

I never said F-35 won’t sell.

I just don’t think it’ll sell anywhere near as well you think.

The only countries that I can think of waiting for a “better economy” are Belgium, Greece and some of the Eastern European ones who even in good times couldn’t afford second hand F-16s.

Everyone else is buying jets including those 4.5 generation jets that according to you don’t sell.

Did we turn left again…your beginning to rant!:rolleyes:

I hope this is not becoming some political debate…….(off topic)

Man, get off it……I have no idea what the price of tea in China has anything to do with the debate on hand.:rolleyes:

Which part of “politics influences weapon sales” don’t you understand?

There is more to the world than just “F-35 is soopa.” Selling weapons is not like selling shoes or Justin Bieber CDs.

I don’t dispute that the F-35 will be the bulk of ever dwindling Western sales.

In 10 years that could very likely be the case. Yet, in 15-20+ years who knows

Do you really think Australia will retire 8-10 year old aircraft? Not even oil rich Saudis do that.

And most Australian analysts now think the total number of F-35s has dropped to 72-75 and will probably go lower.

So, money isn’t a problem. So, if true why would Australia operate a 72 F-35’s and 24-36 Super Hornets. When is could afford a fleet of mainly F-35’s. (maybe a small number of Super Hornets in a supporting role)

Because whilst it has money to buy 48 F/A-18s now, it does not have money to buy new replacement fighters every 10 years.

Even Saudis don’t do this.

All of the JSF Partners will purchase the F-35 along would most NATO Members. Of course the larger richer nations will purchase the F-35 first. While the poorer nation will at a later date. (just like F-16)

I never disputed the NATO buy (i.e. Denmark, The Netherlands, UK, tURKEY, Italy and Norway and maybe Spain, Greece, Poland and Belgium).

But poor countries will not be buying F-35s. They will buy second hand F-16s or outsource their air defence capability or forego it at all.

F-35 is not an F-16. It’s much more expensive to acquire and maintain and much more complicated.

It’s technology is also a lot more sensitive than the F-16 which was always a second tier fighter for the USAF (compared to F-15).

That means considerably more export restrictions.

So, now we’re only talking about NATO??? Again off the top of my head didn’t Israel, Egypt, and Turkey. All order Vipers in many batches over decades.

All 3 countries were poorer countries or reliant on US aid.

You can add Singapore, Greece, Thailand, Pakistan etc as well as batch orders for F-16s.

How many of those will be cleared for F-35 or ever able to afford it?

As for the countries that ordered F/A-18’s Most didn’t have a need for more fighters. Hence why more weren’t ordered.

Because these countries were rich enough to buy in a one-off order (e.g. Canada, Australia and Spain) and didn’t have to resort to penny pinching on orders.

Why do you think Netherlands, Denmark, Italy, Canada etc will batch order?

Canada needs to replace 80 F-18s and is ordering 65 F-35s. Why would they order more?

Same for Netherlands – why would they order more than the number of F-16s they operate now, especially when they’ve slashed their F-16 fleet by 69% since 1991?

Etc etc.

Also, one thing not touched on. The F-35 is available in three models. Giving many Air Forces options not available in the past.

Erm you could buy carrier capable F/A-18s and STOVL AV-8s for decades now.

And who’se going to be building large conventional carriers for F-35C in the future?

Not true………..plus, even if so the past doesn’t mean it will be so in the future. Unless, your back to predicting the next 20-30-40 years again.

Sure we’re predicting the future based on past trends. USA and Egypt have been chums for 30 years and USA still tends Egypt to get stuffed when Egypt requests F-15s.

Pakistan has been embargoed numerous times by USA since 1947.

While, other countries (Israel, Egypt, Turkey, and parts of Asia) saw the threat increase. Which, is why some countries order one batch and others order multiple batches.

Wow so the threats to Egypt and Israel increased after they signed a peace treaty and stopped waging near constant conventional war on each other?

In all Middle Eastern instances, most F-16 acquisitions were part of renewal of existing giant fighter fleets and not increase in overall airframe numbers – in fact Israel’s fleet has shrunk to some degree.

Only increases in airframe numbers were for Bahrain and UAE.

In Asia, it’s pretty much the same – F-16s replaced A-4 and F-5 fleets.

Plus, unlike today the “Fighter Market” had many more types available. So, back in the 1980’s-2000’s. You F-14, F-15’s, F-16’s, F/A-18’s, AV-8’s, Fulcrums, Flankers, Mirage 2000’s, etc. etc. Today we have less than half as many and most will be out of production in the next 10 years. (Typhoon, Gripen, Super Hornet, Su-35, and Rafale)

There were not more types available in the 1980s.

You generally brought either Warpac (MiG-23/-29, Su-22/25 with small numbers of Su-24s available in late 80s) or you brought American (F-16, F/A-18 and for the rich F-15) or you brought French (Mirage F1/2000). If you were desperate you brought Chinese (F-7, A-5).

In 1990s it was similar. Only Western alligned country in the 1990s that actually brought Russian was Malaysia with those dodgy MiG-29s.

Very few countries brought on the open market due to political considerations.

Man, one minute you say sale are good and the next a 90% collapse??? Make up your mind

Compare the numbers. My point was that countries are still buying despite the bad economy.

.

Plus, in 20-30 years “WHO KNOWS” they may become stable countries by then.

Even when it was super chums with USA, Egypt did not get F-15s or even advanced weapons for its F-16s. Saudi F-15S were downgraded. Iraq gets downgraded F-16IQ.

NEVER SAID that any country would purchase the F-35 at same levels that it did back in the 70’s-80’s. All I’ve said is the market is smaller today. Yet, the competition is far less. So, the F-35 will win the majority of the orders.

Which, means I am talking about one country selecting one fighter. Not the total number of aircraft purchased in said order.

The future fighter market will be much smaller in the next 30-40 years than it was in the last 30-40 years. That is something I believe the vast majority can agree on. My point is the F-35 will have the lion share of that market

I’m not disputing this.

As for the numbers they do count. I’d rather operate a fleet of 100 F-16s than 30 F-35s especially if I’m going to war.

Survivability means nothing when you’ve got very few aircraft available due to normal attrition, maintenance requirements and routine breakdowns.

I suspect Su-30/35 sales were go on for considerable time as will sales of ex-US F-16s. This will mainly be for the smaller airforces.

Nothing wasn’t an option because of Serb overflights in 1990s.

Of course the air defence threat has collapsed since then as Austria is mainly surrounded by NATO states, most of whom can’t muster a dozen operational jets if their lives depended on it.

Well, Israel and Japan just decided to purchase the F-35. While, several others are very likely to join them shortly…..South Korea and Singapore being two right off the top of my head.

Israel’s been a known customer since nearly the start.

Singapore and Japan were always there too.

However I don’t see Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Vietnam or Indonesia becoming F-35 buyers now or in the future.

I can see Thailand buying second hand jets in the future. They could barely afford 12 JAS-39s and usually buy second hand (such as a big chunk of their F-16 fleet).

What do you mean most NATO Partners couldn’t afford second hand F-16’s let alone F-35’s???

I can only assume you mean former Eastern Block Countries they were part of the former USSR. Nonetheless, they are just getting there economies back on track. With some buying secondhand F-16’s and Poland buying New Block 50 F-16’s.

As there economy’s improve they will purchase F-35’s at some point.

Do you realise how much economic development these guys need to be able to afford F-35s? And many with ageing populations, deep economic problems and no need for fighters other than to meet some NATO requirement than air policing.

They couldn’t afford second hand F-16s before the economy went bust.

You do realise most of them don’t operate more than 12 jets at most?

Only Poland might buy F-35s to replace MiG-29s. The F-16s will probably be active to 2040s as they’re quite new.

Fighter orders are way off. How many recent sales has the Gripen, Typhoon, Rafale, Flanker, and Fulcrum had in the last few years? Really, the only bright spot was the Rafale in the case of India. Yet, even that large order (100+) was its only export deal in the life of the PROGRAM.

Recent fighter sales?

Uganda – 6 x Su-30
China – ongoing deliveries of J-10/-11/15 and JH-7.
Russia – ongoing sales of Su-30/34/35, MiG-29k
Venezuela – 24 x Su-30MK
Algeria – 44 x Su-30MKA
India – additional Su-30MKI, Rafale, MiG-29K as well as Tejas (:rolleyes:)
Vietnam – Su-30
Pakistan – F-16 + JF-17
Myanmar – MiG-29
Yemen – MiG-29
Sudan – MiG-29
Bangladesh – F7/MiG-29
Saudi Arabia – 75 x Eurofighter/84 x F-15SA
Oman – 12 x Eurofighter
UAE – undergoing procurement process (Eurofighter v Rafale)
Qatar – as above
Kuwati – as above.
Egypt – ongoing F-16
Iraq: 36 x F-16IQ + potentially MiG-29
Denmark – fighter competition- nominally F-35
Canada – fighter competition – nominally F-35
Netherlands/UK/Italy/Japan/South Korea/Israel/Turkey: F-35
Australia: Super Hornet + F-35
Indonesia: up to 32 Flankers + 24 F-16

Etc etc

As a matter of fact if you take out orders from countries that order Russian, Chinese, or don’t have the resources for new aircraft. What’s left is mainly waiting for the F-35.

If you look at it realistically you’re left with following potential customers for new build F-35s over the next 30 years:

Belgium (48-60 a/c)

Greece – dependent on deep economic recovery

Spain – F/A-18 replacement (dependent on deep economic recovery)

Finland – 60 a/c – a real potential sale here

Switzerland – 30 a/c – F/A-18 replacement

Brazil

Funny, you just said most NATO Partners couldn’t afford secondhand F-16’s. Then in the next paragraph you state “plenty of fighter procurements happening”??? Sorry, NATO Members are by far the largest buyers of Military Hardware in the World. If, there not buying the world isn’t sell much……

See my list above.

Remove Britain, France and UK from NATO and sales plummet rapidly.

Asia and Middle East buy far more than most NATO partners and far more often.

Concentration of strength is the norm in any military operation.

And the attacker always expects to suffer more casualties than the defender.

Hence any sane military tacticians would strive to deploy greater numbers, especially in offensive operations.

This is military tactics 101.

As for tactics and pilot quality, didn’t a bunch of Chinese pilots in Flankers get their butts kicked by some Turkish pilots in F-4Es?

Just cause you fly large expensive fighters doesn’t mean you use latest tactics or have best trained pilots or modern integrated force structures.

Just ask the Saudis. :p

Not saying the Chinese are illtrained tyros but this is an untried force whose last combat sorties were against Vietnam in 1979 and then not successful either.