But remember a huge chunk of Indonesian defence spending goes on maintaining the garrison units whose main purpose is keeping the peace.

The other thing is Indonesian procurement is schizophrenic, corrupt and innefficient (remember when they brought most of the non-functional East German Navy) and has been since the late 1960s with no signs of improvement.

I suspect their military capability let alone force projection will not improve much in the next 30 odd years.

After all they’ve not really increased capability in the period 1980-2013, especially when compared to their neighbours.

It comes down to price, and they get those F-16s as cheap placeholders.

I don’t see where you get any info they don’t like their Flankers. Speculation at best.

Actually it was a rumour on another forum – totally not substantiated so yes it is speculation..

Whatever the case, the main rationale for acquiring Flankers was a US embargo due to Timor issues.

Now that the embargo is lifted, Indonesia is turning Western again.

Also I doubt the F-16s will end up as cheap place holders. Given Indonesia’s schizophrenic procurement, the F-16s will probably be the teeth for a long time.

Who says they may purchase other equipment from Europe and still buy the F-35. Plus, remember many parts for the Lightning will be manufactured in Europe.

I think Greece is a potential customer for F-35 in next 30 years.

Definitely not for 225 a/c (total of F-16s and Mirage 2000s purchased by Greece since 1980s).

My predictions for Greece:

1. Standardise on F-16 by 2020-25 – F-4/A-7/Mirage 2000 to be retired without replacement.

2. Small numbers of new build F-35 to trickle in from 2025 onwards plus deliveries of second hand jets.

We’ll bump this post in 2040 to see if I was correct. :p

So i’m reading they’ve apparently passed a defence budget of 17 billion $. At first sight it’s an impressive figure , but some say mostly it’s for personnel. What are we talking about here, on what personnel are they going to spend most of that money on?

If true, that’s quite huge.

Australian Defence Force budget is USD$24.85 billion and that’s with extremely high salaries compared to somewhere like Iraq (e.g. a basic infantryman costs anywhere up to $80-$90k inclusive on oncosts such as superannuation)

Itbut eventually i do not see any issues that will be a deal breaker.

I think the only deal breaker for F-35 is continuing delays to service entry and cost.

And then these are only deal breakers for partner countries who can cancel their planned procurement and move to Plan B: Eurocannards.

The US has no deal breaker for F-35 as it has no viable alternative. Even if F-35 cost goes to $1 billion per plane and service entry isn’t until 2100 AD, the US is still going to stick with it.

Sorry, I am not going to break down every country in the world that could afford the F-35! :rolleyes:

My case is simple and you don’t have to split hairs.

Total Production for the F-16 is ~4,428. Yet, if you combine that with all the other American Fighters (Eagles, Hornets, Harriers, Warthogs) it exceeds 8,000! So, my case is the F-35 could at least sell half that many….

Most produced in the 1970s and 1980s when the Cold War was raging.

Why not just compare with the 1950s and say the US produed 20,000+ aircraft so surely the F-35 will sell half of (10,000)

Look at trends since 1950 and look at collapse of fighter sales since 1991.

Plus, that number doesn’t even include other Western or Russian Types. So, you have to give the F-35 some share of that market.

Bangladesh, Argentina, Syria and North Korea are all lining up for F-35s.

So, the only real competition is the PAK-FA, J-21, or J-31. Which, are hardly any competition at all. As most of the Fighter Market won’t or hasn’t purchased Russian or Chinese Fighters. In addition I see no signs that will change or at least not to any large extent.

What you don’t understand is PAK-FA, J-21, or J-31 are not direct competitors to F-35. They service different markets.

Most countries do not buy weaps on the open market. They generally buy from countries the are allied with or countries that are willing to sell them weapons (especially if under embargo or other users place restrictions).

MiG/Sukhoi might enter a competition to sell Belgium its latest fighter, but they have no chance in hell winning it as Belgium is NATO aligned and buys Western.

The only countries that buy on open market are Malaysia and India. Indonesia doesn’t like it’s Flankers so is going back to Uncle Sam.

So, if you can’t see the F-35 selling ~ 4000 aircraft over the next 30 years in a market of over 10,000. (conservative) Then it doesn’t matter what I say…

10,000 to whom? Why are you including China, Russia and Norh Korea here? Why are you including sub-Saharan Africa who have never, ever brought a single F-16, got F-5/MiG-21/MiG-23 as Cold War aid let alone purchase an F-35

Why include Latin America where over the last 70 years, aircraft sales have been dwindling and they’ve generally been opting for second hand aircraft especially since the 1980s (and where the combined fast jet fleet is about 350 aircraft excluding Cuba)?

Market is a lot smaller than that and the market for F-35 is continuing to shrink.

They are trying to sell Typhoons because they need the resources to purchase F-35’s. As the Navy wants them for the BPE’s. I’ve heard the Spanish Air Forces is also interested in the type. Nonetheless, they need to replace the Hornets. They just have to find the resources to do so….

They’re selling Eurofighters because the country is near bankrupt with a 27% unemployment rate.

But I agree they’re a potential F-35 sale.

Because that is all they can afford…

My point exactly.

Chile and Jordan can’t afford anything but 4th Generation Fighters at this stage.

My point exactly

As for Indonesia and Thailand may very well be waiting for the F-35.

Indonesia is getting in on KFX.

Thailand has brought 12 Gripens.

Thailand has never brought top-of-the line jets ala F-35 and they usually buy second hand. An order for F/A-18s got cancelled and they brought more second hand F-16s.

Even with Malaysia and Vietnam introducing SU-30s has not seen Thailand rushing out to upgrade the vast majority of its fleet (F-16A/B and F-5E/F).

The F-16’s that Morocco ordered are 4.5 Generation Fighters in everything but name….

They still didn’t buy Rafale.

Hardly, most F-5’s have already been upgraded and there service lives will be over within the next decade….

Brazil’s upgrade is still ongoing.

As a matter of fact I believe the Swiss and Taiwan still have low hour F-5’s in storage. (and nobody wants them)

Brazil has brought 11 ex-Jordanian aircraft (upgrade to F-5E/M starting in 2013). Kenya also brought 15 ex-Jordanian F-5s.

USN brought 44 Swiss F-5s whilst Austria leased them (since returned). That leaves about 54 F-5E/Fs in Swiss service out of 110 delivered (some lost in accidents).

Hard to buy off Taiwan given that would peave the Chinese off. Not many countries recognise Taiwan.

Expensive compared to what? When there are no new f-16’s, F-15’s to be had, the 3 euro models will be the cheapest new fighters around ..

Expensive compared to 3rd and 4th generation jets (except Gripen).

Look at what’s happening in Spain – they’re looking at selling off 4.5th Generation Eurofighter whilst keeping older F/A-18A/Bs which were built in the 1980s (includes survivors of 24 ex-USN jets delivered in 1990s).

Kenya, Ecuador and Colombia have all brought 3rd generation jets in the last couple of years.

Indonesia, Chile, Jordan and Thailand have all loaded up/loading up on 2nd hand 4th generation jets.

Morocco went for F-16s and not Rafales.

Meanwhile every man and his dog is continuing to upgrade older F-5s and F-16s – e.g F-5S, F-5T, F-5EM/FM.

I suspect if USA reopened F-5 line and brought a couple of squadrons for aggressor purposes, they’d sell like hotcakes to the rest of the world. :p

Though I always think US should adopt small numbers of JAS-39 (F-39 Griffin), and then market the aircraft to the free world.