It’s really not hard regardless how some want to spin it! The F-35 is going to be wildly successful.

Wildly successful compared to what? If comparing to Eurocannards or Pak Fa or Chinese offerings then yes.

If compared to older successful export types (e.g. F-16), then no.

Even if it replaces only 40% of the current fleets of F-15’s, F-16’s, AV-8’s,F/A-18’s, and A-10’s! That of course doesn’t even include other European or Russian Types. Plus…

You keep talking about F-35 replacing “European and Russian” types yet fail to mention any countries that could be potential buyers.

Are you really expecting headlines such as “Honduras to replace F-5 with F-35” or “Bangladesh to buy 100 F-35s” in the 2030-40 timeframe? 😀

can think of really need first day strike capability – usually only those who like to project their power over the border (USA, Israel, Russia, China, in some extent Turkey, UK and France…. pretty much all)

And most of those countries are not potential F-35 users either (China, Russia and France).

And with Turkey, is first day strike for use against Israel or Greece? For their current incursions into Iraqi airspace (and in future Syrian), F-4Es are more than sufficient!

There are factions in Japan that benefit from these kind of incidents.

These are the growing pro-militarisation/rearmament. With Japan largely stagnant economically for decades now and China (and South Korea) ascendant, these pro-armament voices get louder and louder.

Chinese certainly aren’t lambs but neither are the Japanese.

Expect more idiocy on the high seas from both countries.

MSphere, great post

I think Scooter doesn’t understand that the F-35 is not as F-16 or F-5 or that the Cold War requirements for users to operate large fleets of jets is largely gone.

F-35 is a rich man’s toy. And also a rich man with the right credentials (hence F-35 not available to Saudi Arabia as it would be seen as a threat to Israel and probably not to Taiwan so as to not antagonise China).

I haven’t heard of them marketing anything more than the JF17, J7 and some J10A…

J10B, SU-27 derivatives, J20/J31 of course don’t seem to be marketed abroad at all… I think just domestic requirement is filling their production orders fine.

I’ve heard similar stuff.

most of their clientele are third world countries looking for simpler planes, therefore the JF17s are actually very suitable for that… still many african states now have SU27/SU30 types … so their neighbours may be wary of having just JF17 as their main fighter. Eventually china will have to offer a more advanced aircraft to match Russian offers.

I suspect the problem is more that many sub-Saharan African states no longer possess fast jet fleets.

Su-27/-30 have only sold to Angola, Eritrea, Uganda and Ethiopia and other than Uganda, it’s all second hand base model Su-27.

I actually like the JF17… I think it would be a nice “second line” fighter for us 😀

I totally agree it’s a good buy for many an airforce, especially if they’re cash strapped or aren’t expecting too much intense combat.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Egypt buys the JF-17 now that American relationship is turning sour and especially given licence production of K-8. There’s still 180 F-4/MiG-21/Mirage V that need replacing.

Could Iraq plug into an Egyptian licence production scheme?

And JF-17 is still better than most of the Iranian or Syrian fleets and could possibly tangle with Jordanian F-16/F-5s especially if you invest in AWACS.

As for countering Saudi Arabia, nothing short of Su-30MK + AWACS is gonna stop them (oh and maybe getting Saudi Western contractors to go on strike).

Really, most 4th Generation Fighters are 30+ years old now. Which, include F-15’s, F-16’s, Mirage 2000’s, Flankers, Fulcrums, Hornets, AMX’s, and Tornados.

Yep and key airforces have initiated replacement programs that are running now:

Examples:

F-35 – USA, Canada, UK, Denmark, Norway, Italy, Israel, Japan, Australia

Eurofighter – UK, Spain, Italy, Austria, Oman, Saudi Arabia

Rafale – France, India

Gripen – Sweden, South Africa, Switzerland, Thailand, Czech Republic, Hungary

PAK-FA – Russia, India

South Korea – F-15K, KFX

Brazil, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are all working on new jet acquisition programs now.

Also most minor airforces jets aren’t that old – -e.g. F-16s operated by Morrocco, Oman, Iraq, Chile (C/D), Poland. Or MiG-29s acquired by Sudan and Yemen.

And many of the small operators operate jets for decades. As you well point out – look at Mirage IIIs, F-5s etc still in service.

What does that leave for future F-35 potential operators already non-committed who can actually afford to operate fighter aircraft, let alone 5th generation jets?

Finland
Spain
Switzerland
Malaysia
Singapore
Belgium
Greece (and that one’s a maybe)

The rest of the world is a no-go because:

1. They’re too poor
2. They’re not friendly with the USA
3. They have long standing restrictions on them by the USA.
4. They’re better friends with other people like Russia

Plus, many nations have even older aircraft like Mirage III/V, Skyhawks, Phantoms, Mirage F1’s, Mig-21’s, Mig-23/27’s, F-5’s, etc. etc. etc.

Yet, you want us to believe we have little market today.

If you think Argentina or Syria or Pakistan or Kazakhstan will be buying F-35s anytime soon (even in next 30 years), you’re smoking crack.

That most nations won’t have a need replacements for another 30 years. (i.e. 2040 or later?)

Most of them will probably be scrapping their fast jet fleets by 2040 and replacing them with light turboprops and jets.

The ones that replace will go for second hand jets or cheaper non-Western jets.

Examples of sales to small non-NATO airforces over last few of years:

Ecuador brought 12 ex-SAAF Cheetahs which are rebuilt Mirage IIIs.

Colombia brought more Kfirs.

Sri Lanka brought second hand Kfirs and MiG-27s.

Eritrea brought second hand MiG-29, Su-27

Uganda brought 7 ex-Polish MiG-21s (no longer servicable) and which were replaced by 6 Su-30.

Bangladesh – new build F-7 and small number of MiG-29s (not sure if second hand).

Myanmar – 36 MiG-29 (not sure if second hand).

Yemen – 24 x new MiG-29

Sudan – 24 x new MiG-29

Morrocco – 24 x F-16C/D

Chile – 10 x F-16C/D, 36 x second hand F-16A/B MLU

Oman – 12 x Eurofighter, 24 x F-16C/D

Nigeria – 15 x F-7.

Jordan – 60+ second hand F-16A/B

Iraq – 36 x F-16C/D (probably won’t be a small airforce in future)

As you can see a mixed bag indeed – lots of second hand stuff including some truly ancient airframes (upgraded Mirage IIIs i.e. Kfir, Cheetah and F-7), second hand 4th generation jets.

Most advanced Western jet sale is 12 Eurofighters to Oman with most other operators going for F-16s.

Where does the F-35 fit with this market? – It doesn’t – too expensive for most airforces, too complicated and one for friends only.

AGAIN you are basing your assumption on what you think is likely today? We are discussing what will likely happen over the next 30 years!

Look at fighter sale trends since 1950.

Look at complete decline in sales since 1990.

And I am looking at what will happen in next 30 years by looking at what’s happened in the last 70 (since 1950).

Let me put it another way. We know thousands of fighters are going to retire I the next couple of decades.

But how many of those thousands are potential F-35 customers?

Is Belarus a potential customer? No as Belarus is affiliated with Russia and even if they switched to NATO after Lukashenko, they will still probably be concerns regarding safety of sensitive data in a force closely affiliated with Russia.

Is Nigeria a potential customer as an F-7 replacement? Again not really.

Or North Korea?

Even looking at areas closer to home, a lot of users won’t ever be in the need for an F-35 or who have already committed to a new jet fighter for the next 30-40 years.

E.g. South Africa has brought 26 JAS-39C/D Gripens to replace Cheetah. That covers them for the next 30 years (in fact probably longer as Gripiens are only entering service).

The only way the South Africans would buy F-35 is to increase their fighter fleet, which defies a downward trend started in 1991. Why would you need a 5th generation stealth fighter in Africa where average country has no IADS. :confused:

Or all the ex-European states whose average fighter fleets have been shrinking to a grand total average of 12 jets.

However if they commit to second hand F-16 (most likely option) then that’s their fighter for the next 20 years.

So, while many won’t be replaced most will. So, now take that market and what’s going to replace the majority of them.

You neglect the fact that a lot of customers are locked into their next jet. E.g. South Africa = Gripen, France = Rafale, India = Rafale/Pak Fa/Su-30MKI/Tejas/MiG-29K, Czech Republic = Gripen, Germany = Eurofighter. And so on.

[quote]
The F-22 expensive and out of production.[/quote

Then why mention it.

or Europe well no they didn’t build a 5th Generation Fighter……………..The list goes on and on, Sorry, the F-35 is going to have the biggest share of the Fighter Market for the next 20-30 years hands down.

You somehow think everyojne needs a 5th generation fighter or has the money and requirement to operate one.

Switzerland chose JAS-39E/F, India chose Rafale, Oman chose Eurofighter, Saudi Arabia chose Eurofighter. They all could’ve waited and jumpe on the F-35 bandwagon but they didn’t.

In 2030-40 the average small country will still be flying F-16s or MiG-29s and the lucky ones will have Eurofighter/Gripen/Rafale. I wouldn’t be surprised if we still have F-5E/Fs in service – Kenya just brought some more and other operators are continuing to upgrade them.

In fact the F-16 user group will increase in the next few years with Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia all potentially joining the group with second hand aircraft.

Only the rich few will operate 5th Generation and then only in small numbers (other than USA).

Sure the F-35 isn’t going to replace every F-16 that has been in service during the life of the program. Yet, it will replace a good number of them. Along with a good number of Warthogs, Eagles, Harriers, Hornets, Super Hornets, Mirages, Migs, etc. etc.

Whose Mirages?

French? – replaced by Rafale

UAE? – replaced by Rafale/Eurofighter

Taiwan? – Chances of this happening are extremely limited

Greek? – last news I heard was fleet is to start drawdown as part of budget cuts.

Spanish? – Eurofighter – retired 2013.

Pakistan? – Replace by JF-17. Pakistan probably won’t be eligible for F-35.

Morocco? – Again, will they be eligible for F-35?

Brazil? – F-35 not on offer for F-X2. Still a possibility though unlikely especially due to local industrial participation not.

Ghana – No

Egypt – probably not due to Israel basing conventional air deterrence on F-35. US has rejected requests for F-15Es from Egypt in the past.

Qatar – probably not. I think they’re looking at Rafale/Eurofighter

India – maybe?

Peru – again probably not due to balance of power and politics.

Argentina – Mirages are apparently being retired this year. Argentina has been unable to acquire modern supersonic aircraft for a long time. US is often reluctant to sell advanced kit to Latin America in order to maintain balance of power.

E.g. Chilean F-16s were allowed because Peru brought MiG-29s.

Whose MiGs?
Polish? probably not – Poland can’t even afford to replace it’s Sukhois with something better than a UAV and even that’s not certain. I suspect MiG-29s will also be retired without replacement and F-16s.

Romanian? Definitely not. Country needs a lot of time for economic catch up from Communist era mismanagement and even pre-WWII poverty.

Bulgaria? Same as Romania.

Slovakia? Same as above

Croatia? Extremly small country with dwindling population base. Most likey not.

Egypt? – see Mirage

India – maybe for MiG-27/-29 replacement.

Serbia? – Serbs are moving back East.

Syria – no

Libya – no

Angola – no

Eritrea – no

Ethiopia – no.

Vietnam – no.

Algeria – no

Myanmar – no

Sudan – no

Yemen – no

Malaysia – probably not. Malaysia is looking to replace MiG-29 soon and probably before F-35 is available.

The reasons for no answers are long standing economic and political ones that date back decades and have nothing to do with GFC.

E.g. Romania was poor pre-WWII and things didn’t get better in Cold War period.

There’s a lot of catch up to develop a modern economy that can afford something like an F-35.

Other countries have had long term instability and the US generally won’t sell or authorise sale to them anything except 3rd rate junk – e.g. sale of F-5E to Yemen.

A lot of countries mentioned don’t have solid relations with US. Even if they develop them in the next 30 years, it will take time for US to allow sale of advanced kit ala F-35.

And even US allies don’t have access to advanced kit due to political issues- e.g. Egypt or even Saudi Arabia (F-35 only for Israel).

E.g. look at Iraq and sale of downgraded F-16IQ.

—–

As stated Super Hornet is to be replaced in USN service by FAXX 6th generation jet.

Australian situation is becoming murky.

I’d be interested to hear your opinion on these as opposed to a vague “people will buy lots of F-35s.”

By the way I think F-35 export sales will dwarf combined Eurofighter/Gripen/Rafale sales. However it’s adoption by global airforces will be far less than F-84, F-86, F-104, F-5 and F-16.