thobbesHow actively are the Chinese marketing their more modern aircraft?
thobbes…Moreover, if KF-X was developed, how big would the 2025-2040 export market really be? Even in a hypothetical market where production lines for the F-16, F/A-18 family, Eurofighter, and Rafale had all shut down, that still leaves South Korea competing against China’s J-10 and J-11, Russia’s SU-35 and possibly its MiG-35, Sweden’s JAS-39E/F, and the USA’s F-35….
Really competent author:) Whole article is strange.
Youre assuming the Chinese are exporting J-10 and J-11.
Last I checked most Chinese regiments are equipped with J-7 and J-8. This is where the production in the foreseable future is going.
And will Chinese continue to produce J-10/J-11 in 2025-40? And whom to?
I suspect KFX main market will be Asian and in particular those that don’t like China.
I think the KFX’s main competitor will be the F-35!
thobbesI am yet to meet a LMA employee who privately claims that they will sell as many export JSF as they sold F-16’s in the past. Unless there is another cold war, i doubt that given the current scenario (Changing economic scenario, Multiple vendor competition). If current trends are anything to go buy, none are going to replace the F-16 fleet 1 for 1 (Except the US)…With the rising cost, those numbers are likely to come down..
Even the US F-16 replacement isn’t 1:1 as the US has retired and is continuing to retire huge chunks of F-16s and has abolished numerous squadrons equipped with them as well as A-10s.
It’s like the Dutch F-35 procrurement is meant to be 1:1 for F-16. This isn’t based on original 213 F-16s procured but rather current fleet which is now down to 67 a/c from memory.
In fact the Dutch seem to shrink their F-16 fleet to match how many F-35s they can afford so F-35 acquisition is always a 1:1 replacement!
thobbesMaybe I spend so much time supporting the F-35. Because so many members of this forum constantly attack it! Which, I guess is understandable being that Air Forces Monthly is a European based Forum. Plus, the fact that Types such as the Typhoon, Rafale, and Gripen will be long out of service when the Lightning is still going strong.;)
Personally I don’t have any preference re: F-35 v Eurofighter v Rafale v Gripen.
Each jet is designed from a different perspective for different roles and has it’s own merits.
F-35’s a great addition for the US and other close allies that want to fight Coalition Warfare against potentially high intensity IADS. However I do not think F-35 will sell as much as F-16, let alone F-4 or F-86. The trend since 1950s is downward for all reasons I’ve discussed before.
The Eurofighter is a great A2A jet with reasonable A2G in upgraded versions.
JAS-39 Gripen is great for all those airforces that can’t afford to buy or maintain any of the above.
I like the Rafale but I have no ideas where it fits.
As for the M-1 Tank I don’t know the whole details of it’s service in the Australian Armed Services. Yet, from several people that I have spoken to. That have served with M-1 Tank Units. All spoke highly of the American Tank. Including a Brother-in-Law that served with a Army Unit in Alaska. I am speaking of US Army Units. As I haven’t spoken to anybody that operated the type with the USMC.
M1’s a great piece of kit.
However Australian ones were second hand refurbished models and from memory run on diesel and not JP8, don’t have depleted uranium in armour and have some other minor mods.
They’re not as advanced as latest US versions in terms of electronics.
I have not heard that they’ve had problems with them though other than issues with communication suite (this was rectified though) – I’d be happy to hear about it though.
thobbesI wouldn’t call them freakshows either.
Israel does have special requirements.
As for Japan, their procurement seems to be getting wacky – lots of indigenous programs that take forever to get into service with small trickle of new build or upgraded aircraft.
Their F-35 buy is a total of 42 aircraft to replace a similar number of F-4s.
However it’s meant to be done as a multi-year buy with first one being 4 aircraft.
When they did this with AH-64 only about 10 aircraft (or less) were ordered as opposed to 62 odd.
Similarly their F-15 upgrade has been extremely limited in terms of numbers and most of the airframes won’t be upgraded.
I’d like to hear more about Japanese plans from those in the know. Right now it seems they’re slowly losing the edge versus the Koreans and Chinese.
thobbesSo, what you come back with but todays projections??? WOW Clearly, you missed the whole point I was making. The projections made back in the 1970’s and 1980’s for the F-16. Where way less than what was ultimately produced in the end! The same applies for several fighters produced during the period. Which, is very similar today……(i.e. very bad world economy)
So the economy has been bad since 1991 (or 1955 as I showed in an early post)
[quote]Also, while some nations have cut projected numbers in the near-term. Because of the terrible World Economy. Again that doesn’t consider increases as the economy improves and more resources become able.[/qupte]
As stated trends are going downwards before economy turned bad.
Need for fighter aircraft is in decline in most of the world. That’s a long term trend, not a result of GFC.
Further, the F-35 is going to replace several aircraft. In the US alone it will replace Eagles, Vipers, Hornets, Super Hornets, Harriers, and Thunderbolts. (i.e. Warthogs) That is only the tip of the Iceberg!
You appear to be oblivious to deep cuts made to US tactical airpower since 1991.
US plan for F-35 is 2,443 aircraft to replace AV-8/F-16/F/A-18 and A-10.
F/A-18E/F is to be replaced by 6th Generation Next Generation Air Dominance.
Not sure about F-15E but that’s only 200 airframes.
So, while the F-35 won’t replace all of said types. It only has replace part to make it the most successful Jet Fighter in Modern History.
I agree with this. However I doubt it’s numbers will compare to F-16 or any of the other older jets that were acquired in the hundreds by multiple users.
thobbesJudging by the last 20 years, it usually means less aircraft acquired at replacement levels of less than 1 to 1 ratio.
Quoting myself as I realise I was talking garbage.
Lets say going down since 1950s.
In period 1955-70 even a small NATO partner such as Belgium acquired 688 CF-100, F-104, F-84F and Hawker Hunter aircraft compared to only a measly 277 Mirage 5 and F-16 between 1970 and 1990.
And probably only a measly 48-60 replacements in 2020-2030 (most likely F-35).
Germany acquired 946 F-84, F-86K and CL-13B (as well as a quantity of G-91) in 1955-60 compared to a measly 143 Eurofighters in period 2000-2020.
Latin American airforces have been in general decline since 1950s as well.
Whilst aircraft had short lives, most airforces were much, much bigger than they are today.
Growth area since 1970s has been Middle East – primarily Saudi Arabia and UAE but also Kuwait and Qatar. In the 1970s you had Iran and in 1980s it was Iraq. Egypt has maintained numbers relatively steady since 1970s and was always a large operator.
Asia’s growth was in 1970s and 1980s but numbers have been maintained since. Bare in mind that a lot of Asian airforces maintain their numbers through aircraft considered obsolete in the West – e.g. F-5E/F Tiger.
Asian airforces are now about qualitative improvement – going from F-5, A-4 to F-16C/D or F-15.
RAAF is amazing in that it has maintained numbers since about 1980 – i.e. about 100 combat jets (though RAN fixed wing combat capability was scrapped).
thobbesMan, I didn’t realize you could “predict” the defense spending for so many countries over the next 20-30 years!:eek:
In case you hadn’t noticed but many of the F-35 partner countries have spelled out their predicted requirements for next 20-30 years.
E.g.
– Netherlands 85 a/c (originally acquired 213 F-16)
– Norway 52 a/c (originally acquired 74 F-16A/B)
– Italy – 90 a/c to replace 150 odd Tornado/AMX/AV-8B
– Canada 65 a/c (orignally acquired 138 F/A-18A/B)
– Australia min 75, max 100. (originally acquired 75 F/A-18A/B and kept older F-111s in service)
– UK – 138 F-35s originally planned. Currently 48 B models required.
– Denmark – 30 F-35 (acquired 77 F-16A/Bs.)
– USA – 2,443 requirement. Acquired over 2000 F-16s and over 1,100 F/A-18A/B/C/D.
Only partners where full plans are not laid out is Turkey and Israel.
Also I haven’t put in likely numbers for Australia or Netherlands – only what is on the books.
As a matter of fact maybe you should do a little research. Considering you weren’t likely alive back in the mid-late 70’s. During that time the F-16 was in development. The world economy was in dire straights. (sound familiar) Oh, the F-16 was just a terrible aircraft and nobody would buy it in the projected numbers.
In case you hadn’t noticed but the Cold War was still going in the 1970s and the US was still subsidising massed aircraft purchases for some users.
Fighter sales have collapsed since 1990 (90% by one report I read).
Well, 30 years later the F-16 is still in production. As a matter of fact it’s considered one of the most successful Fighter Jets in History.
Totally agree.
However vast majority of F-16 sales were in late 1970s and 1980s. Same applies to F/A-18 and F-15.
Orders in 1990-2013 have usually been smaller (with some exceptions).
So one would expect vast majority of F-35 sales to be in 2010-2030 range.
In short just because “Y” predicts it will only purchase “X” Number of Aircraft hardly means that will be the end result.
Judging by the last 20 years, it usually means less aircraft acquired at replacement levels of less than 1 to 1 ratio.
You hear one number and call it “Gospel”. Like that number won’t go up or down.
Generally the numbers go down. That’s the trend in the last 20 years and does not look to be changing.
Heck many air forces that operated fast jets in 1990 are no longer capable.
Austria’s 15 strong Eurofighter fleet is now one of the most potent in a region where average fighter fleets are 10-12 strong instead of several hundred strong in the 1980s.
Sorry, the odds are the F-35 Numbers will go up….way up!
As stated the last 20 years has not shown that.
Where will your sales come from?
Europe – market has collapsed. Most operators have been gutting their airforces wholesale since 1991. No sign of trend reversal and in fact many operators are struggling to replace old MiG-21S (even before GFC).
Sub-Saharan Africa – non market. Number of fast jet operators in Africa is on decline.
Latin America is not much of a market either. Market here is extremely small – most operators seldom operate more than 12-20 fast jets.
Asia -good prospects in Japan, South Korea and Singapore – two of these are existing large F-16 users. Some scope for sales in Thailand. Maybe Malaysia (small numbers) and Indonesia. I put in South Korea cause I suspect KFX won’t go according to plan – it never does these days.
Middle East – good prospects in Israel (acquired what like 350 F-16s), Saudi Arabia, UAE and Persian Gulf States.
However some large scale users are becoming more and more politically unstable or have long term economic problems that will require years of economic restructure or are in untenable political decisions:
Greece – will Greece be able to replace 150 F-16s, 40 M2000s, 40 F-4 and 20 A-7s on 1:1 basis? It’s economy needs significant restructuring.
Egypt – Sales to Egypt have been declining since 2000. They still have 170 odd F-4, MiG-21 and Mirage 5s to replace yet since 2000 they’ve only ordered 20 F-16s! And now we’ve got a new government and Egypt is becoming more unstable.
I doubt the US will allow sales of F-35 to them due to Israeli issues, especially as Israel is looking at F-35 to retain regional edge for next 30 years.
Taiwan – chances of US sale here are 0. China is expected to grow in power and influence so I doubt the US will want to antagonise them with F-35 sale. Even 66 F-16C/D has become problematic as was original delivery of 150 F-16A/B!
Where else are your sales coming from?
And yes we’re looking at next 30 years.
thobbesThe M1A1s are junk — outdated, and proving terribly problematic. I don’t think Australia should even have tanks but if we have to have them they should’ve been new Leopard 2A6 or whatever latest variant is.
P.S. If you think I’m being ‘anti-American’ here, I also consider the selection of NH90 over UH-60M foolish.
As for the rest: yes, Australia has some high quality equipment, usually not nearly enough of it as we like to focus on token capabilities like C-17 over those we could execute more robustly than a shaved-to-the-wire commercial logistics operation. And part of the reason for that is our infamously terrible defence dept., known for such debacles as Collins, SH2… and JSF.
Totally agree.
In last budget it was mentioned some of the M1AIs will be mothballed too.
In reality Australia does not need heavy armour. I’d rather some more warplanes or patrol boats or something useful.
59 M1A1s is not going to stop a ground invasion. The M1s were part of John Howard’s plan to make Australia the “US’ deputy sheriff.” Originally there was even talk of having half of them stationed in USA. Basically Australia would’ve been subsidising an American tank batallion.
thobbesReally:rolleyes:
Yes really.
Current RAN service fleet:
8 X ANZAC class frigate
4 x Adelaide class frigate.
The outcome is obvious. No JSF Partners will leave the program and it will be a highly exported fighter. Maybe even exceeding the F-16 in numbers…..
Erm who to?
Some F-16 users acquired over 200 of them (Egypt, Israel, Netherlands, Turkey) and many acquired over 100 (Belgium, South Korea, Taiwan, Greece).
Many of those will not buy that many (Netherlands, Belgium, Greece) and many won’t even buy any at least new build ones. Some won’t even be eligible for them (Egypt, Taiwan).
And if you include F/A-18 users I don’t see Canada acquiring 138 F-35s to replace Hornets (in fact only 65) or impoverished Spain.
Even Israel is planning only 75 F-35 to 2030.
Potential large scale users (100-200 aircraft):
– Japan
– South Korea
– Australia (though I’ll say 48-72)
– Turkey
– RAF
– Saudi Arabia
– UAE
That’s it and even UAE might be an optimistic one depending on how they go with Rafale.
Italy has also already reduced to 90 a/c whilst Netherlands is looking at 47-62 provided it goes with F-35 at all.
As for the threat to Australia. It has clearly stated (White Paper) what is needed and expects to procure ~100 F-35’s to fulfill it. (among others)
Yet here RAAF is planning to expand the F/A-18F/G fleet whilst delaying F-35 buys.
White Paper also talks about 12 submarines though true numbers will probably be lower.
Remember US planned 750 F-22s and 123 B-2s.
We’ll see what the next White Paper brings – after all these are plans and plans get changed.
You also haven’t described who the threat is.
thobbesTotally agree on both accounts and I agree ADF has to be ready to defend Australia.
From a realistic assessment though, I don’t see Indonesia developing any significant conventional capability over the next 20-30 years.
They are so far behind for all reasons listed above and more.
thobbesAEGIS destroyers are on order and haven’t yet been delivered. 2016 is estimated commissioning.
thobbesThe announcement was that US will increase focus on Asia Pacific.
This was to include redistributing USN to have increase Pacific fleet to 60% whilst reducing Atlantic fleets to 40%.
As part of this restructure, new deployments of Marines to Australia were announced as well as plans to station LCS’s in Singapore. PACAF was also slated to get F-35s before USAFE whilst it has also received a large number of F-22 squadrons (3 – 1 in Hawaii, 2 in Alaska) whilst USAFE got 0.
thobbesWell, none of the aforementioned have left the JSF Program or are likely too! So, as usually we hear a lot of talk and very little substance. The F-35 Program is progressing well and will become the most successful fighter for decades to come.
The critics can spin until there blue in the face. Yet, it won’t change the out come……
True, but what is the outcome?
What threat will there be that will require RAAF to field an all-F35 force, when even USAF/USN, PLAAF/PLAN, RuAF are keeping older non-stealth jets in service and in the latter 2, procuring new versions?
thobbesNope; not when the nations employing such aircraft have vastly more resources than Australia does. Indonesian GDP will surpass Australia’s within the next decade and military expenditure will follow in short order. In the long-term Indonesia is likely to field several hundred advanced combat aircraft: a KF-X / T-50 mix appears most likely at this juncture.
By the time this happens, F-35 will be obsolete.
Indonesia (aka world’s last empire) has a lot of issues that have prevented the development of it’s conventional armed forces:
1. Large numbers of unhappy or potentially unhappy minorities which require maintenance of large police forces – these police forces are usually military garrison units.
2. An extremely corrupt military command structure – Suharto allowed military commanders to engage in commercial activities and these have since been expanded into underground areas such as drugs. As far as I am aware, this has not been changed.
As such force is not exactly professional as military commanders are usually concerned with making money over being military commanders. – I heard horror stories about TNI-AU procedures from a Kiwi that had been deployed there.
3. Emphasis on 1950s style self sufficiency – e.g. development of an extremely ineffecient aerospace industry. Aircraft are often produced in extremely small lots -e.g. 6 EC725.
TNI-AU has had to support this industry by purchasing aircraft from IPTN and will continue to do so.
4. Poor management of procurement processes.
All of these problems do not seem to be getting fixed.
When one looks at it, Indonesia has not increased it’s combat capability since 1980s.
The air force seems to be largely forgotten and procurement for it is poorly managed. Wonder if this has anything to do with the airforce’s former status with Sukarno regime.
In the mid-1990s Indonesia had planned 60 4th generation jets. Nearly 20 years later, it has 26, 10 of which are obsolete F-16A/Bs most of which were unservicable last I heard.
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