I doubt Chinese stealth jets will be seen out of China for a long time.

China’s advanced jet production (e.g. J-10 and J-11) is used for recapitalising PLAAF/PLAN and not for export.

There are still lots of fighter regiments equipped with J-7 and J-8 that need replacing and in the future units equipped with older model Su-27/J-11.

As for the Russians, I see export potential for PAK FA in Asia Pacific but only in small “silver bullet” fleets.

Here’s a breakdown of SE Asian airforces:

Malaysia:
18 Su-30
16 MiG-29
8 F/A-18D
survivors of 18 Hawk 200 (I’ve seen 12 left as a number)
F-5E/F (about a dozen in reserve)

Thailand
Survivors of 61 F-16s delivered
12 JAS-39C/D
30 F-5E/F

Indonesia:
16 Su-27/-30
10 F-16 (looking for additional 24 F-16C/D blk 25)
F-5E/F (about a dozen in reserve)
survivors of 32 Hawk 200.

Vietnam
150 MiG-21bis
40 Su-22
36 Su-27/-30

Myanmar
30 MiG-29
30 F-7
20 A-5

Singapore:
24 F-15SG
74 F-16C/D
40 F-5E/F

So as one case see most of these air force fleets are completely obsolete when compared to RAAF.

Other than Singapore, I don’t see many of them acquiring 5th generation a/c anytime soon. Most of them are still acquiring 4th generation jets in dribs and drabs (Thailand JAS-39, Indonesia F-16C/D Blk 25, Vietnam Su-27/-30, Myanmar MiG-29) and most lack support infrastructure such as AWACS or appropriate AD network coverage).

So tell me again why F/A-18F is insufficient for Australian requirements especially when in future 48-72 F-35s will be added to fleet?

I never made such a statement. Nonetheless, no major power would go into the next decade without a 5th Generation Strike Fighter. As we can see with the continued development of the PAK-FA (FGFA), J-20, J-31, F-22, F-35, and the list continues to grow…………

And RAAF will have 48-72 F-35s.

Compare that to what the rest of the SE Asia region will be fielding in 2030s. Only country that will field an airforce as powerful as RAAF in 2030 will be Singapore.

Everyone else will still be flying F-16s and/or Flankers and/or Fulcrums and usually without AWACS/refuelling/radar network/jamming capability.

So, you know more than the current Political Leadership in Australia??? (Interesting)

As a public servant in one of the State Governments I can tell you that’s most likely. Ministers are often clueless.

Knwledge is usually retained by Secretaries or other high level bureaucrats and is heavily filtered by advisers.

I have submitted budget information for the minister in charge of our Department, and the thing that gets submitted to the Minister for sign off is vastly different to what I originally provided and in one case completely different in context and was pretty much lying.

Ministers are also often unaware of how many of their directives are ignored – doesn’t help the directives are often stupid and irrational (e.g. budget saving: do not reimburse volunteers for lunch and fuel – never implemented because volunteers would’ve stopped providing services and we’d have to pay someone to do the work so it would cost more).

The Minister’s often don’t care too much either as long as everything is working smoothly.

Our Defence Department clearly falls into this area when you look at mismanagement of SH-2 program, Collins program etc.

If Minister actually paid attention and made informed decisions, these two programs would’ve had vastly different outcomes.

At least procurement of F/A-18F and C-17 has been smooth

Thanks for the updates Aereo. Great to have a Spanish buff amongst us. Spanish military aviation is fascinating be it the reengined Bf-109s and He-111s they flew or the Mirages or the more modern stuff.

Welcome Aereo and thanks for a great first post.

I know it’s a bit off topic but what’s the future for Spanish Navy EAV-8Bs and Air Force F/A-18s?