thobbesAS25K didn’t got beyond 100 or so examples for testing and development. It never entered full rate production.
Regarding the Pampas and their radars, it won’t happen. That was a proposal by Lockheed martin, and didn’t made any good sense, so the AT-63 are radarless, and will continue to be so.
The current Pampa fleet is of 16 service planes. There are 8 advanced construcion, and other 10 fuselages built. The order backlog is for an extra 22, will will bring the numbers to 18 “converted” AT-63, plus 40 newbuilds. The schedule for this is before 2020.
So, all in all, we are looking for a 54 AT-63 Pampa fleet in service by 2020.
Thanks for the update.
thobbesSo the French are partying colonial style like it’s the 19th century over again. :rolleyes:
If the French and co really wanted to help Africa, they’d open up their markets to a lot of the lower value goods produced by these countries such as agriculture and stop supporting corrupt and oppressive politicians such as the current rulers of Mali.
And maybe also give up on colonial era arbitrary borders and allow the creation of ethnicity based states. E.g. allowing the creation of a Toureg state would’ve stopped the creation of the Islamist force in the first place.
The French also failed in a rescue attempt on one of their spies in Somalia resulting in 17 dead Islamists, two dead/missing commando and a dead spy:
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/12/world/africa/somalia-helicopter-raid/index.html
Seems Hollande is viewing Africa as the French military’s personal playground.
(Remember Mali operation wasn’t meant to commence until September).
thobbesLove those Su-34 shots.
An excellent article on the MiG-29 and export possibilities:
Interesting but seems a bit optimistic:
– Indian AF – has ordered more Su-30’s (270 now ordered). Given local input into assembly it’s probable that any additional fighters are brought from here.
– Indian Navy – yes, very probable if carrier plans proceed. Remember though that Rafale also comes in carrier capable version.
– Syria – unlikely. Civil War shows no sign of abating and the country probably won’t have any funding to replace fighters once it’s finished.
– Iran – also unlikely. The Iranians don’t seem interested in acquiring new foreign jets.
– Zimbabwe – as stated in article no cash.
– Peru – Unlikely – they’re focusing on maintaining existing assets.
– Cuba – Extremely unlikely as country is broke.
– Sudan – definite possibility
– Bangladesh – Unlikely, they appeared unhappy with MiG-29
– Burma – definite possibility
– Malaysia – again unlikely. They’re looking at retiring the MiG-29 as they’re not happy with MiG-29. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/malaysia-to-phase-out-troublesome-mig-29-fighters-327276/
Given their current preference for Western-Eastern split I suspect the contract will be either for JAS-39 or F/A-18E/F.
thobbesNot to sound like an anal a-hole but could this thread please be reserved for news only?
thobbesAnd another one bites the dust.
That leaves Serbia, Croatia and Romania as last operators of MiG-21 in Europe and from what I’ve heard Serbs one are due for retirement June 2013.
thobbesWith regards to J-20, I’ll agree it appears to be more like a stealth MiG-31 than an air dominance F-22.
Except instead of strategic bombers, I suspect the main targets for J-20s will be supporting air-to-air refuellers and AWACs aircraft which are not stealthy and are a potential achilles heel for any operations in the Pacific.
thobbesHow capable is the AT63 when compared to say a Hawk 100, Yak 130 or even EMB-314?
Also what sort fo numbers of Pampas have been delivered/ordered?
I’ve seen following figures mentioned but they could be wrong:
IA63: 3 prototypes delivered from 1984
14 production aircraft delivered from 1988 + 1 additional aircraft made from spares and delivered in 1999. TOTAL 18 (all to Air Force).
2 later converted to AT-63
That leaves 16 IA-63 Pampas. Are all in service?
AT-63: 2 IA-63 converted to AT-63
How many more have been ordered.
thobbesPersonally I think it’s more of a case of the Argentine Navy needing to look at it’s priority operational requirements.
New frigates/destroyers/corvettes would obviously play a role here as they do in any navy.
But is the submarine force really that required? Submarines are offensive in nature whereas frigate/destroyer/corvette/OPV are often more multipurpose.
From a defensive perspective, submarines are a deterrent but who do they have to deter?
In the end will Argentina have sufficient funding to replace 4 destroyers, 9 corvettes, 3 submarines, 8 patrol boats, as well as the variety of auxilliary/support ships some of which are WWII vintage?
And then there’s the acquisition of a Mirage III replacement, upgrade of C-130s, upgrade of P-3Bs.
Lots of areas of need yet only a small bucket of money.
thobbes“To face the challenge of Britain’s Royal Navy over the Falklands, Puricelli also said Argentina’s navy will need to import advanced combat ships as he inspected a flotilla of PLA Navy ships in Shanghai.”
A statement by a politician is completely meaningless.
From the nice little summary by Buitreaux we can see that:
1. OPV acquisition process is in dire straits.
2. Surface fleet modernisation is minimal.
From other sources we also can see that the surface fleet is struggling to maintain required levels of operational capability:
There does not appear to be a plan to recapitalise the surface fleet.
The old saying “learn to walk before you run” really does apply here.
thobbesI cannot fathom the obsession with submarine force, especially a nuclear one when the country’s key surface fleet and air defense is in such a dire state.
If the Argies want to make life more miserable for the Falkland Islanders then OPVs and corvettes are far more valuable in harassing fishing and shipping.
In fact the Chinese approach of using Coast Guard vessels would be far more practical – the approach would be to use the CG to “police” disputed waters and for inspecting Falkland Island shipping/fishing for “contraband” etc.
Re: J-20 I don’t think China will be exporting these for a while. Obviously they’re still in development but I don’t think the Chinese will be wanting to expose the aircraft to spying from the US. Plus initial production will be for PLAAF (I suspect this is why they’re not really pushing exports either with J-10).
You see these sort of statements a lot whereby politicians state their countries are interested in something but nothing ever comes of it.
thobbesThe question is do they need it? The only potential enemy Argentina has right now is the UK. :p
And would it be better to put that money into maintianing and renewing corvette, maritime patrol and transports fleets which are far more useful and for which there are pressing needs right now?
The 5 heavy brigades have no point in a war with Britain either. Not many countries are maintaining such large stocks of armour unless they can justify a need for it (e.g. Middle East or South Korea or Taiwan) or have the money to waste on such toys.
Compare the Argentinian Army (10 brigades including 5 heavy, 230 odd medium tanks) in it’s benign enivronment to say Italy with NATO commitments (11 brigades including 1 armoured and 4 mechanised and 120 tanks).
And note all the Argie tanks are significantly inferior to Leopard 2A4s fielded by Chile.
thobbesThe historical trend has continued to prove accurate if you look at last few acquisition programs:
Ecuador – ex-SADF Cheetah (modified Mirage III) to replace Mirage F1
Colombia – ex-IDF/AF Kfir (again a modified Mirage type) to replace Mirage 5.
Chile – 10 new build F-16C/D and 36 ex-European F-16A/B to replace Mirage.
Only exception has been Venezuela which brought new-build Su-30 Flanker (but then it also brought new build F-16s in 1980s). Most of Peru’s more modern Russian equipment was also second hand.
Brazil’s last 2 fighter acquisition programs have been ex-French Mirage 2000 and ex-Kuwaiti A-4.
By the looks of it, whilst Brazil is booming, it’s government does not care much for acquisition of expensive new jets.
The one change in trend has been the replacement of light jets ala Strikemaster, MB326 and A-37 with the ubiquitous turboprop EMBRAER Tucano.
Also jets are being retired without replacement – e.g. Ecuador’s Jaguars and Argentine IAI Daggers.
The market for this kind of military equipment is in decline in Latin America as it serves no purpose. Most militaries in the region are smart enough to know they need turbo prop light attack planes, helicopters and transports to act in counter-insurgency/counter-narcotics operations and not expensive jets.
thobbesThe Argentine military seems to live in it’s own little world that’s not coupled with financial and operational realities.
Do they really need:
1. Super Etendard naval strike fighters?
2. A submarine force?
3. 4 destroyers and 9 large corvettes (might as well say 13 frigates)? Would OPV’s suit their interests better?
4. 10 army brigades (equivalent to 3+ divisions) including 2 armoured and 3 mechanised?
5. 236 medium tanks (TAM), 160 light tanks, 260 IFV + several hundred APCs?
It might be better to look at what their priority requirements are and focus on them whilst slashing non-essential components.
thobbesThe other issue is where do you start?
The Argentine’s don’t only need to renew their fighter fleet, but also their navy and army.
The Navy is in as dire as a position as the airforce: http://en.mercopress.com/2012/11/22/argentine-navy-short-on-spares-and-resources-for-training-and-maintenance
thobbesI think the Latin American market for fighters is as it always has been – extremely small and a general non-priority.
My predictions 2015-2035:
Argentina – probably about a dozen older supersonic jets if they’re lucky and the government releases the funds. A-4s and Super Etendards will probably serve until completely non-airworthy. Super Etendards will probably not be replaced and A-4s to be replaced by smaller numbers (ie less less than 1:1) of whatever armed jet trainer is around post-2020.
Bolivia – nil – they’ve got K8s.
Brazil – given Governments lack of commitment I can see current F-5/AMX fleet in service still in 2025 with small numbers (again 12) to replace Mirage 2000s. After 2025 AMX/F-5 will be replaced (again not 1:1) by a new jet.
Chile – current fleet to serve as long as they fly. Chile’s military acquisitions are tied to prices of resources they export. So they will wait for another big boom to replace F-16s and then not in near future.
Colombia – to fly Kfirs until they’re all unflyable and then replace with whatever armed jet trainer comes aroud.
Cuba – to operate existing fleet until no longer airworthy. No replacements.
Ecuador – probably a general drawdown of fighter operations once existing jets are unairworthy.
Honduras – F-5s to fly until no longer airworthy and then no replacement.
Peru – focus on upgrading existing jets. Small numbers of replacements in post-2025 period.
Paraguay – nil
Uruguay nil
Mexico – to fly 10 F-5s until they’re no longer flyable and then either acquire 12 second hand US jets or no longer operate any jets.
Venezuela – only bright spot thanks to Chavez and oil. So maybe more replacements for remainimng F-16s. After Chavez goes, status of fleet is unknown.
If you look at the market in Latin America then you will understand problem with future acquisition.
Latin America has generally acquired second tier ex-NATO equipment (F-5A/B/E/F, F-86, A-37) or relatively cheap in the day/second hand French gear (i.e. Mirage III/5/50). Peru and Cuba are exceptions here with larger numbers of Soviet equipment. Oil-rich Venezuela is also an exception though even it’s goals have been curbed by economics (e.g. originally 72 F-16s were to be acquired yet they only got 24).
In the past second hand stuff with lots of flight time left on airframe was somewhat freely available. However with Western airforces forced to fly their jets for decades without replacement has reduced the supply considerably.
The West also no longer does cheap jets ala A-4, F-5 or A-37 or Mirage 5 (again often acquired as second hand jets from US or other sources).
This leaves very few options for Latin American air arms:
KAI T-50 series – a possibility especially if Lockheed Martin becomes actively involved in support and marketing. Philippines have chosen this one (the Latin American island in Asia 😀 ).
Chengdu JF-17 – probably the best choice but Latin American air arms generally acquire Western equipment.
Su-30 – only for Peru/Venezuela.
Yak-130 – only for Peru/Venezuela.
JAS-39
I do think most of the smaller Latin American air arms will go the way of Africa or at least Eastern Europe – i.e. either lose fast jet operations with an emphasis on COIN/humanitarian relief or at best a squadron of 12 or so jets with an emphasis on air policing.
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