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thobbes

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Viewing 15 posts - 1,966 through 1,980 (of 2,012 total)
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  • in reply to: Eurofighter Typhoon News & Discussions VI #2359625
    thobbes
    Participant

    Haven’t read of any Su’s bouncing MiG-29s on take off in that war.

    MiG-29s were bounced in a couple of incidents (once after shooting down aN Ethiopian Mig-21).

    That might speak miles about Su-27 radar/sensor performance over MiG-29.

    in reply to: Eurofighter Typhoon News & Discussions VI #2359656
    thobbes
    Participant

    MiG-29 had an opportunity in Ethiopia-Eritrea.

    But due to a variety of circumstances it was beaten every time by Su-27 in relatiive close range dog fights.

    in reply to: Eurofighter Typhoon News & Discussions VI #2359687
    thobbes
    Participant

    I don’t think Iraqi MiG-29’s arrived in time to see combat against Iran.

    Also I do remember reading somewhere (perhaps an old Air Power Journal from about 1991) that the Iraqi MiG-29s were considerably downgraded in terms of avionics. They also apparently weren’t supplied with AA-10/AA-11 missiles but were instead using older AA-7/AA-8.

    But then the AA-10 proved to be a dud in Ethiopia-Eritrean conflict with only 1 kill out of reported 20+ launches.

    Regardless, USAF F-15s had no problems blasting either Mirage F1EQs or MiG-29s out of the sky.

    List of Iraqi air to air victories:

    http://www.acig.info/CMS/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=47

    Only confirmed MiG-29 kill was another MiG-29 in a friendly fire incident.

    in reply to: RuAF News and Development Thread 9 #2359745
    thobbes
    Participant

    I take it the Sukhoi figures don’t includes base model Su-27s sold to Vietnam, China and Indonesia?

    Also does it include 18 Su-30 delivered to India and since returned to Sukhoi?

    As for comparing it with Eurofighter, things get wobbly there.

    Most Eurofighter sales are to country of origin (469 a/c)

    Actual export sales are 87 aircraft (72 to Saudi Arabia, 15 to Austria).

    So Sukhoi with nearly 500 Su-30 sales (in fact I think Indonesia has ordered 6 more bringing it up to 500) is a massive export success.

    Basically the Flanker is to Russia what F-16 is to USA (MiG-29 has not been so successful).

    However it’s up take in its country of origin is slow (a mere 50 a/c delivered or on order).

    However given Russia operates 260 base line Su-27, 20-odd navalised Su-33 (to be retired), has ordered 48 Su-35 and 124 Su-34s then things even out.

    There’s also the market for second hand Su-27s (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Angola, Kazakhstan) and operators of former Soviet aircraft as well as licence production in China.

    in reply to: Eurofighter Typhoon News & Discussions VI #2360536
    thobbes
    Participant

    . I guess it would be quite logical to assume that the design excels in BVR under specific circumstances (especially opponent’s radar emitting), still the words about “completely outclassing” anything else in BVR seem quite exaggerated to me.

    I dunno.

    The F-15 after all did completely outclass everything for a long time and especially the mainly Russian ****heaps it flew against (monkey model MiG-21/23/29) as well as more up-to-date Mirage F1.

    The F-22 is a whole different kind of beast that jumps a generation.

    In the end it’s kind of irrelevant. US F-22s will never go to combat against Eurofighters or Rafales or Gripens.

    I suspect their first kills will be against the same old monkey model MiG-21/23/29 junkheaps the F-15 and F-16 had no problem with dealing. Oh and maybe some antique F-4s and F-14s if the US ever decides to resolve the Iranian issue. 😀

    in reply to: China awaits fighter export breakthrough #2360537
    thobbes
    Participant

    I don’t think China has to induct JF-17 for it to sell either.

    It doesn’t make it an orphan aircraft as the main supporter of the program is Pakistan.

    And J-7s continue to sell to countries such as Bangladesh and Nigeria despite China slowly retiring it.

    It’s kinda like the F-16.

    If the F-35 was on time, F-16 technically becomes an orphan in 2020. But it was still selling regardless.

    As long as adequate numbers are in service, the support should continue.

    The issue with orphan aircraft is more for small fleets ala Australia’s F-111s.

    in reply to: Eurofighter Typhoon News & Discussions VI #2360597
    thobbes
    Participant

    But thing are less clearly cut when fighting other countries aircraft.

    Probably cause all parties involved tend to use these sort of press releases as nationalistic propaganda and as marketing for current products.

    in reply to: Military Aviation News-2012 #2360620
    thobbes
    Participant

    Not really. Chinese investment groups have been buying up dying industries from western countries. These companies don’t have a market and are actually a poor investment. The sale of said company includes small private planes and small luxury jets. It is good news for the US competition IMHO because the ones that buy these planes will look only to Hawker to appease Chinese investors and shop for the top planes where they can find them. And that is not in China.

    Huh?

    Just because they’re owned by a Chinese company does not indicate a loss in quality.

    And the Beechcraft King Air is one of the best aircraft in it’s class.

    Company ownership is complicated and crosses many national boundaries. A lot of the locals are always horrified when I tell them their local brewery (Boags) is technically part of Mitusbishi.

    Doesn’t mean the beer is any worse because it’s Japanese owned

    SAAB Automobile is owned by a Chinese-Japanese consortium.

    Ironically US owned Cessna was the one with quality issues that resulted in FAA fines.

    in reply to: A sad history of military air crashes #2360624
    thobbes
    Participant

    What do they expect?

    These are high performance aircraft doing incredible things. Of course they crash sometimes.

    And it’s an idiotic article – it even includes a shot down Hercules..

    And the attrition rate is far greater than that. 😛

    in reply to: China awaits fighter export breakthrough #2361315
    thobbes
    Participant

    It is not supersonic though, and some might want that ability however useless it actually is operationally for them.

    As stated Phillipines is going for KAI TA-50s.

    I cna see Azerbaijan and all the ex-Soviet Stan countries loading up on Ya-130s once they’ve exhausted their fleets of MiG-29s and L39s.

    How long can China keep the JF-17 production line open though if the PLAAF doesn’t order the type?

    I suspect once all of Pakistan’s 250 odd jets have been delivered, the line will close.

    in reply to: China awaits fighter export breakthrough #2361322
    thobbes
    Participant

    You can add Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Congo (they currently have extremely obsolete fighters) as well as Nigeria to the list of possible customers. Nigeria and Sri Lanka both operate Chinese fighters, and may well be interested in the JF-17 if it is affordable- and its likely to be cheaper than all the alternatives in the future. Once J-7 production stops, if a third tier air force wants a non second-hand fast jet component, they’ll have few options but to look at the JF-17. China may then want to sweeten the deal by offering cheap credit.

    Phillipines – highly unlikely given Philippines close relationship with USA and recent territorial disputes between China and Philippines. Philippines has ordered Korean TA-50s.

    Nigeria – did list them.

    Azerbaijan – seen these guys mentioned as a JF-17 buyer but nothing concrete. I suspect they will buy Russian when they do buy.

    Sri Lanka – possible.

    Congo? – which Congo? And highly unlikely in both instances. DRC is still in a state of civil war whilst Republic of Congo is extremely poor.

    in reply to: China awaits fighter export breakthrough #2361467
    thobbes
    Participant

    Because people keep hyping the JF-17 as the next MiG-21, when it has done nothing to achieve this goal.

    The only problem is the market for the MiG-21 level jet (as well as F-5 and basic Mirage III/5) no longer exists:

    1. USSR sponsored Warpac members – gone due to conversion to NATO and general disarmament.
    2. Africa – mainly gone due to economic issues.
    3. India – gone due to upgrade to high tier aircraft ala Su-30 and maybe Rafale.
    4. Middle East – mainly gone due to Libya and Syria being in state of upheaval and Algeria upgrading to higher tier aircraft (again Su-30).
    5. Asia – again switching to higher tier markets (F-15, Su-30). North Korea under embargo.

    I don’t see Latin America as a market. That market is mainly western with a few exceptions. And I can’t see oil rich Venezuela or cash strapped Cuba buying Chinese jets.

    That leaves very few operators able to afford the JF-17 or who are politically motviated to acquire them. In fact it’s mainly the usual suspects:

    1. Egypt – replace MiG-21/F-7/Mirage 5/F-4. That’s some 200 aircraft and Egypt can’t afford adequate F-16 types or anything Western (unless it’s US subsidised).

    2. Pakistan – of course.

    3. Myanmar – replace A-5/F-7

    4. Nigeria – once they blow the current batch of F-7s

    5. Iran – potentially a big market if Iran ever decides to procure foreign built aircraft. Potential of a couple of hundred aircraft to replace F-4/F-5/J-7/Mirage F1.

    6. Bangladesh – replace F-7.

    7. Sudan

    8. Zimabwe – if they can afford it.

    But that’s kind of it.

    in reply to: Military Aviation News-2012 #2361494
    thobbes
    Participant

    The risk would have depended on how much change Australia wanted.

    Problem is Australian defence procurement has often been run by imbeciles who make everything over complicated e.g. Collins class subs, SH-2Gs etc.

    The best procurement programs we’ve had have been off-the-shelf procurement ala F/A-18E/F and C-17A.

    As soon as you get an Australian bureaucrat in, the program becomes a mess.

    in reply to: F-5EM/FM vs MiG-21 Bison #2286506
    thobbes
    Participant

    As stated F-5S/T has AMRAAM capability too.

    in reply to: China awaits fighter export breakthrough #2286523
    thobbes
    Participant

    K8’s done quite well given low sales of anything military this decade.

    That graph is wrong too – Egypt has acquired 120 K-8s including 80 licence produced.

    http://www.airforceworld.com/pla/gfx/k8/k8e_pilot.jpg

    As for the JF-17, it is daft to assume it can compete in anything but third world markets.

    The US nearly has a monopoly on Western fighter procurment – either via the teen series or via the F-35. Even comparing the Mirage 2000 to the Teen series shows complete US domination of the Western market in the 1980s and 1990s with the French fighter a medium player. Other than Saudi Arabia, Tornado was not even a player.

    The Russians have a borderline monopoly on cheap heavy fighters, i.e. the Flanker series.

    The rest of the market has been struggling :

    MiG-29 – sales to Indian Navy as well as “marginal countries ala Myanmar, Sudan, Yemen. Prospects not so good.

    JAS-39 Gripen – currently exported 88 aircraft to 5 customers (includings Switzerland) despite it’s cheapness. Not a single order for 30 aircraft.

    Rafale – 1 export sale to India (126 aircraft).

    Eurofighter – 1 small sale to Austria and 1 large to Saudi Arabia. Aircraft numbers are same as Gripen (87 export orders).

    Now compare that to the F-35.

    Even older US aircraft are doing well:

    F-15 – three sales to major airforces for a total of 168 aircraft (Singapore, South Korea, Saudi Arabia).

    F-16 – ongoing sales to medium airforces as well as attrition replacements – Pakistan (34), Morroco (24), Oman (24), Iraq (36), Poland (48) – 166 off the top of my head in the last few years. And previously in the 2000s we had big orders from Israel (102 F-16I) and UAE (80 F-16E/F).

    F/A-18E/F is the only export dud with a mere 24 aircraft sold to Australia.

    I read somewhere that fighter sales are down 90% since 1990. Furthermore many smaller operators are still flying 1970-80s vintage MiG-21 and F-5 types.

    Many others, especially in Africa, are out of the business of flying expensive jets.

    So the Chinese don’t really have a competitive product or an an available market.

    – Their old market (Africa, Albania) is pretty much non-existant except Pakistan.

    – Anyone even close to the US sphere is on board for either Teen series or F-35s.

    – Non-US affiliated buyers with money go for Flankers.

    – Anyone else has a crowded bunch of suppliers after them – Gripen, Eurofighter, Rafale, F-15/F-16/F/A-18E/F, MiG-29, Su-27/30.

    So the Chinese jets are stuffed.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,966 through 1,980 (of 2,012 total)