Israeli M2000s for sure.
Though without things such as US F-15/-16 and E-2 could the Israelis have established complete air superiority over Bekaa Valley in 1982?
The best option for China seems to be to quickly sieze Taiwan. This not only allows maximum numerical supremacy to brought against Taiwan but also the US may opt to stay out as Taiwan is technically a province of China.
This would mean no pre-emptive strike on Japan or US forces in Pacific.
In the long term, what are China’s war reserves in terms of oil and other key resources?
Croatia – 10 Mi-17s
Czech Republic – Mi-35 and Mi-17.
Slovakia – 12-ish MiG-29.
That doesn’t explain issues in Kosovo where combo was bad weather + bad terrain + relatively functional IADS that forced higher altitude tactics.
Fighting in Europe was always far more different than fighting in Middle East/North Africa. Even the cities are far more spread out – at least in the modern areas where command installations are.
Unfortunately we don’t really have an appropriate sample for modern ops in Europe or Asia.
Has there been any news on IPP, helmet and classified problem (presumed to be stealth) that were identified a while back?
Whatever the case A-10s have operated in reasonably contested airspace at least over Iraq in 1991 and over Yugoslavia in 1999.
The truth is the USAF brass has always hated the A-10 and would move mountains to get rid of them. They have also always loathed any mission where the have had to support the Army – hence early retirement of old C-7s and cancellation of C-27.
The kind of IADS the US seems to be talking about when they talk about “contested airspace” are those fielded by major powers ala China.
By the looks of it the USAF wants to get out of the business of real shooting wars (i.e. dirty COIN ops for the most part) and basically become an an anti-China/anti-Russia deterrent. This is the same role the USAF performed from 1953 to the early days of Vietnam.
And who’s going to pay for an extra squadron when they can’t even afford what they’ve got?
The detachment recently dispatched to protect RAF Akrotiri from ‘rogue’ Syrian jets consisted of six Eurofighters. Why would it take 18 F-35s to merely police Dutch airspace in the heart of Europe? A non-essential job that if still deemed necessary, $250 million worth of KAI T-50s could do perfectly well.
And how many other Eurofighters are out for maintenance? And how many more are being used for essential training – QRA jets are not assigned training roles.
Generals and planners make mistakes.
And there’s that nasty group think thing. Look at how badly it affected French doctrine in the 1930s.
Or the disastrous misjudgment of British planners for defence of Singapore – they planned around seaborne invasion and neglected land approaches. And associated Australian defence plans which all relied of UK, the Royal Navy and Singapore.
Or American interpretations of air combat in 1950s that caused massive problems in Vietnam.
Actual combat is the only way to discover what works and what doesn’t (e.g. failure of much vaunted Tank Destroyer Doctrine in 1940s).
The key is to learn from mistakes
AAA and MANPADS have been proven to far more effective aircraft killers than radar based IADS which are suppressable by electronic means. Look at poor effectiveness of Iraqi, Yugoslav and Libyan AD or even Iranian and Iraqi IADS during 1980-88 War.
Look at how easily Syria’s IADS is shut down by Israel.
And modern IADS operated by potential opponents of the US are few and extremely far between.
At the same time remember PGM’s did not deliver as well in Kosovo.
Desert warfare in good weather is a very different kettle of fish to dense terrain in poor weather.
There was no hiding in the desert. Even the night wasn’t helpful as the Iraqis found out when their tanks heated up by the desert sun were still lit up like Christmas trees in infrared spectrum thus offering great opportunities or IR AGM-65s.
Hammer, I totally agree with your post.
It actually shows how the US managed to build up it’s virtual monopoly.
The F-16A/B might be a repeat of earlier F-104 success but by the same token F-35 is expanding this even further.
Very interesting stuff.
The most interesting comment is that the most dangerous systems were day time IR missiles and AAA.
Notice that by adopting higher altitude tactics, NATO losses in Kosovo 1999, Iraq 2003 and Libya 2011 were minor.
Meanwhile both the Libyan and Syrian AF have sustained large casualties by focusing on lower level tactics. The Syrians have shifted to higher level tactics, but lack of PGM capability means air support is no longer as effective.
A similar analysis of Kosovo 1999 would also be a good addition. Whilst the Serbian AD system was more primitive than Iraq’s, it was aided by advantageous terrain.
One interesting thing that did emerge from Kosovo was that PGMs were not as reliable as expected. From memory this was about 70% miss rate and was attributable to atmoshperic and weather conditions.
This has since improved with JDAM but misses with these are still common enough.
The ASBC goes into this very nicely..In fact giving networked assets such as the B_2 and LRS_B to oversee such things…
Putting it into an aircraft actually increases risk (even if risk is malfunction and aircraft needing to return to base and not enemy fire).
The hacking is probably done from ground stations in Tel Aviv – global world with WWW and satelites and all that jazz
I suspect any similar US capabilities would be based in USA.
Another point that came to me is that relatively short legged tactical fighters don’t really fit into context of “full-spectrum operations in highly contested environments.”
These fighters rely on non-stealthy big airliners to be able to extend their range.
Surely in a “highly contested environment” a KC-46/-135 would be a prime target for the opfor?
Indeed this is exactly what the RAND corporation came up with their analysis. F-22 may kick J-XX/Su-XX butt but the loss of tankers and AWACS would cripple the F-22 fleet.
If that’s the case the USAF should be acquiring a lot more than the 100 LRS-Bs currently planned and well as working on an extended range F-22 for air superiority missions.
And finally whilst USAF convinces itself a return to 1950s conventional war focus is required, one of the biggest threats to LRSB is potential cutbacks to funding due to lack of “urgent threat.”
It would seem some Pentagon planners aren’t thinking we’re going to be fighting “”full-spectrum operations in highly contested environments” any time soon – at least those requiring $550 million LRSBs if USMC General James Cartwright is to be believed.