Unfortunately it reflects their economy too – e.g. the existence of domestic tariffs and duties which are the equivalent of paying import duties and going through border controls to get from South Dakota to North Dakota.

Some good points indeed. Delay could be longer than 12-15 months. And depending on elections, the Indians could go back to competition or reconsider Airbus counter bids!

The other fly in the ointment is Tejas Mk 2.

The way things are going I think MiG-21 and MiG-27 will still be in service in 2020-25 period as opposed to retired by 2019.

The reason why Rafale is more competitive in the MRCA context:

* Rafale can meet the MRCA delivery timelines, the F-35 cannot
* Rafale can nail down on a fix contract cost, LMA cannot do the same, as the jet is still in development
* Rafale can provide a documented, proven record of operational and logistical cost, The F-35 can only provide a computer model, that is periodicaly updated based on lessons learned from testing. Needless to say, with almost 2/3 of the testing remaining, that model is far from FIXED.
* The MRCA is as much as TOT as it is about procuring a capable fighter. If the F-35 has to provide a comparable TOT and In house production promise, many complex issues must be hammered out by the Indian and the US Governments…That will take plenty of time!
* For the JSF to be considered, its developer actually needs to offer it. Clearly given the contents of the request for proposals, LMA felt they could field a more competitive bid by offering the F-16I instead.

For the F-35 to be more competitive, in the MRCA context, the IAF would have to considerably delay the entire acquisition program, and look at an IOC date that is far out into the future. There are also issues, with the F-35 being able to fly to India and be put to the test by the IAF, but i guess those can be ironed out.

I agree with this post to a great degree but with a caveat:

If Rafale acquisition is delayed to a point where vast majority of airframes are delivered post-2020 then F-35 is a far more viable option.

The diversity did tend to focus on Russian aircraft mainly MiG-21, MiG-23/27 and now Su-30MKI. Since 1970 Western types (Mirage 2000, Jaguar) were generally brought in much smaller numbers.

The current diversity is partially the result of an inability to replace older aircraft in a timely manner. And it’s going to get worse before it gets better.