thobbesYep, even the United States will be operating 4th gen aircraft into the mid-2030s, China and Russia probably a decade beyond that. Same story for all the second-tier players. Yet somehow the prospect that India may have to wait till ~2030 to field a second VLO manned combat aircraft (LMFS or AMCA) is UNACCEPTABLE. :rolleyes:
In mid-2030s USAF fleet will be virtually all 5th generation with a minority of 4th generation (F-15C/D/E) and that assumes no cutbacks to US fighter fleets between now and 2030. The F-16s and F/A-18s will be gone by 2030.
By 2030 many NATO countries will be 100% fifth generation while Britain and Italy will be at least 50% fifth generation, Australia will be 75%-100% fifth generation. Turkey will probably be about 40% fifth generation and if TFX succeeds it could be more.
Interestingly IDF/AF will only be about 30% fifth generation (only 100 F-35s planned – Uncle Sam’s subsidies aren’t enough to cover replacement of F-15/-16).
The French and German air forces will be basically obsolete.
Russia and China are interesting – we’re not sure what their procurement plans are.
Also India has cut FGFA requirement to 144 aircraft – again that may shrink further.
just not possible without a significant delay in the entire MRCA program
The way things have been going recently and as a whole, I don’t see Rafale entering squadron service by 2020.
thobbesThe same is true of almighty China. Indeed, China is only just now wrapping production of J-7s and J-8s, to say nothing of such ‘borderline obsolete’ platforms (as you would characterise them) as JH-7 and J-10A.
Chinese do operate a lot of obsolete aircraft but their induction rates are far quicker than India’s.
JH-7 is obsolete – basically a Tornado level aircraft with underpowered engines.
J-10A has been in service for some time, whereas Tejas Mk I is only scheduled to enter service at the end of this year and then in a limited fashion.
The bigger issue is whether Rafale and Tejas can be delivered in meaningful numbers in 2015-20 period.
The Chinese probably won’t buy many J-10/-15/-16 post 2020.
Everything takes longer than it should in India. One program that actually IS ridiculous is the Jaguar re-engining which is not due to be complete until into the 2020s a few years before they’ll have to retire!
Indian defence procurement is rather poor and always has been. Basically every program is as mismanaged as USAF KC-X program.
Yeah, China is so far into 5G+ that it has multiple 4th generation aircraft yet to enter service — J-10B, J-15, J-16.
It has 2 5th gen aircraft flown as prototypes. India has none.
J-15 and J-16 are close to or have entered squadron service – given J-16 is Su-30MK2 it is already in service anyway!
Tejas Mk 1 has not entered service, and Tejas Mk 2 has not even flown. Rafale deal has not even been signed.
China is not that far ahead, the only real hole is the lack of a 5G carrier-capable medium aircraft and that will be addressed either by AMCA or a joint program with the Russians, advancing both military and strategic industrial objectives.
As stated China has both J-20 and J-31 flying. India has nothing flying. AMCA is some model planes.
And F-35C will be in squadron service by the time AMCA even goes to prototype.
And frankly, there is only so much India can do to keep up with China. In the absence of an imminent threat, compromising long-term national security objectives in favour of shinier toys in the present is a penny-wise, pound-foolish proposition.
Thing is India is trying to play the big boy game. In reality it’s still a regional player only.
thobbesUse foreign adviser.
And Saudi pilots bagged 2 Iranian F-4s in 1980s and 2 Iragi Mirages in 1991.
thobbesSpAF:
“Eurofighter only” after 2020.
I’ve not seen anything to indicate that Spain will retire it’s F/A-18A/Bs. And I don’t see Spanish fleet going from 140-ish aircraft now down to a mere 54 (they’re planning to sell 18 out of 72 Eurofighters).
Anyon got any further info?
thobbesThe interesting thing is that from about 2017, the Rafale becomes export build only for a few years with French order frozen at about 140 aircraft until at least 2020. What will that do to the price?
And if the Indians fails to induct large amounts of Tejas or Rafale in service by 2020, they might as well join the F-35 camp. Inducting large numbers of 4th generation fighters in 2020-30 period is a backwards step.
It locks IAF into a cycle of obsolescence – those Rafales and Tejas have a lifespan of 30 years (so in service to 2050). By that stage it will be 6th generation.
It seems by 2030 IAF’s 5th generation fleet will be up to 144 PAK FA, assuming no further cuts and everything else going to plan. Rest will be 4th generation.
By 2030 all other major powers will have phased out most of their 4th generation jets.
thobbesDamn it Scooter, I agree with you! :eagerness:
thobbesOr even better spend money on nuclear development, which is what they have done.
The Iranians didn’t like the F-7 either and only acquired a handful which are used for operational conversion and which were acquired at a point when they were deperate.
And even upgraded, the F-7 does not stand a chance against advanced Arab jets guided in by AWACS. Or even worse US jets supported by AWACS, cruise missiles, stealth bomber strikes and massive electronic warfare capability.
thobbesGreat post bring_it_on.
so based on what happened in the past, why not forget the lessons learnt and abandon any hopes of self-sufficiency and be forever importing weapons that cost several tens of billions just to acquire, forget to operate and maintain over their lifetimes..not a smart idea IMO and one that the GoI and MoD would never allow to happen.
The funny thing is that since India started developing indigenous jet fighters (HF24 Marut) in 1957, it has imported many hundreds and if not thousands of foreign fighter aircraft.
So in 56 years India has not achieved self sufficiency and are still buying hundreds of foreign aircraft. To be fair the Chinese also failed (they’re still importing Flankers) but they did have the cultural revolution and were isolated whereas India had access to British, French and Russian tech.
So India has spent billions on indigenisation and billions on imports.
And even if current indigenisation is successful, India will still be importing hundreds of heavy fighters as well as aircraft it used to have indigenous capability (i.e. trainers).
One has to question whether this is a prudent usage of government funds.
thobbesthobbesThey can’t even design an F-7G.
The closest they got to an indigenous design was this little trainer that never entered service:
thobbesSo? That’s what Super-30, Rafale, FGFA, IUSAV, etc. are for. Tejas can still fulfil a valuable operational role even if its true value lies in industrial development. As an investment in national security Tejas is far more valuable than F-35.
Depends on how you define national security.
Right now over half of India’s fleet is aircraft considered obsolete by most other countries – MiG-21, MiG-27 and Jaguar.
If MRCA and Tejas are delayed, the situation only improves moderately between now and 2020.
Indian AF might be planning to replace MiG-21 and MiG-27 but with MRCA continuing to drag it’s feet and Tejas 2 still a long way off, the old MiGs will have to stay in service or the IAF simply scraps 10 squadrons (this assumes 100 MKI yet to be delivered equip 5 squadrons and Tejas Mk I equips 2 squadrons).
That’s right – there’s 17 squadrons still operating MiG-21 and MiG-27, including some equipped with early 1970s MiG-21Ms as well as non-upgraded MiG-21bis! Then there’s also several squadrons equipped with Jaguar as well.
Also note most of the MiG-29s and Mirage 2000s were delivered in 1980s – upgrades might keep them viable but they’ll run out of airframes hours eventually.
That’s the thing here – MRCA and Tejas might be about industrial development but they are actually weakening the IAF by depriving it of newer and more capable assets.
EDIT: Basically MRCA should’ve been in squadron service by now.
thobbesRegardless of China, if Pakistan is any factor at all in India’s defense picture, it requires airbases and aircraft functionally dedicated to it’s theatre.
If that theatre threat doesn’t call for it, no reason to use more capability than needed. Same goes for Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar.
Problem is India is defining it’s scope as much more than neighbouring countries. They are looking at the entire Indian Ocean and that includes Africa, Middle East and Asia. Not to mention they want to be able to counter China.
India already has a requirement that lines up with F-35’s capabilities, that is AMCA, and it will not be a purchase or assembly deal of F-35.
The way things are going, AMCA will be entering service by the time the F-35 starts being replaced by 6th generation!
thobbesI look at Tejas Mk. 1 as a smaller J-10A; Mk. 2 as a smaller J-10B, minus the indigenous engine. If Mk. 2 is fielded by 2020 that puts it a mere 5 years behind PLAAF, and certainly in line with Pakistan’s development as the other major threat axis.
That’s a big if. Tejas Mk 1 program has certainly been a long one and doesn’t bode well for Mk 2 – remember this involves a redesigned airframe and thus basically restarting the test program.
As for countering PAF, Mk 1 is completely adequate given average PAF fighter is J-7 or Mirage III/V and replacement of these by JF-17 and F-16 has stalled.
By the looks of it, PAF will still be flying large numbers of J-7 and Mirage III/V in 2020s unless it wants a massive numbers drop.
India faces diverse challenges and has a diverse array of program to meet those challenges. Dropping F-35 in anywhere in that mix would almost certainly be a step backwards for the nation. The only paths to F-35 that I can envision for India is if an Indo-Russian LMFS program is instituted but later falls apart requiring a rapid substitute, or if AMCA similarly collapses requiring same. Even in those circumstances F-35 would hardly be a shoe-in vs. domestic Rafale.
Seems to me a licence production of F-35 is a step forward in terms of capability and if ordered from 2020 economic efficiency.
But then Indians don’t seem to have ever read Ricardo or Smith.
thobbesNice pics.
F-35 program seems to be gathering steam.
thobbes* The LCA is almost “there”, although not as capable as a 5th gen fighter, it when decently upgraded, does offer plenty of capability to India to tackle any threat that the PAF may pose. With this in mind, they can build up on the fleet and use it to replace their aging Mig-21 and other fighters
Tejas is fine if India’s national strategic goals are limited to countering Pakistan. However they are looking at greater power projection and looking at having a credible conventional deterrence against China.
The other problem here is operating several different fleets – Pak Fa, Rafale, Tejas as well as Su-30MKI, MiG-29/-29K and Mirage 2000. And the way things are going Jaguar and MiG-27 will be critical components of IAF into 2020s as well – after all MiG-21s will be in service to at least 2020.
Most of these won’t be deployable due to obsolescence by 2020.
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