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thobbes

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Viewing 15 posts - 691 through 705 (of 2,012 total)
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  • in reply to: Would F-35 make sense for India in 2020-2030 period? #2261339
    thobbes
    Participant

    For most of the PRC’s history, it did. This is where India, with its greater access to global markets, has an advantage. Tejas is not coming at the expense of more capable platforms, those are in the pipeline as well. Frankly I don’t think China is as far ahead (in terms of planned/fielded capabilities, not self-sufficiency) as you seem to think they are. MMRCA is taking its time, but the closest PLAAF equivalent to Rafale is J-10B and that isn’t in production yet either.

    The proof of the pudding is in the eating – JH-7, J-10, J-20, J-31 are all either in service or flying prototypes. India has Tejas which is only meant to enter service this year and then in an interim capability in small numbers (i.e. 40 Tejas Mk I).

    Chinese are also advancing with indigenous transports (Y-20), trainers (K-8, JL-9, L-15). India is importing American, Swiss and British aircraft to meet these needs.

    The only area where both have relative equal indigenous capability is light helos and then both have had foreign help (German and French/Russian).

    One of India’s major problems is that they didn’t follow through and build upon the work done with HF-24, etc., which meant that they basically had to start over again with Tejas. And now you’re proposing they pull the plug again, enshrining foreign dependence for another generation. Certainly the Indian effort has been haphazard and problems continue to the current day, the thing to do is fix those problems, not abandon the endeavour.

    HAL had continued design work throughout 1970s and the LCA program began in 1983.

    The question is what is the product of that indigenous product – Tejas certainly doesn’t sound worth it. By the time it enters service in meaningful numbers it will be obsolete. As stated it’s kind of like building T-55s to tackle M1A2s.

    FGFA is tinkering around the edges.

    in reply to: Egypt 2013/14 – Potential for repeat of 1956 or 1967? #2261345
    thobbes
    Participant

    The closure of the Suez Canal will not have a serious impact. The fuel cost saved are paid as fee for the passage already. The benefit for the shipping is the saving in time and by that more round trips are possible. Since some years we have a surplus in ships and very low shipping rates by that. The closure of the Suez will just bring back shipping rates known for some year ago and none did claim they were too high really. They started a building boom of ships with the surplus at hand today.

    Was just reading that the North East passage is clear some 4 months of the year thanks to global warming.

    This means bypassing Africa completely for the Asia-Europe trade route.

    in reply to: Would F-35 make sense for India in 2020-2030 period? #2261358
    thobbes
    Participant

    In 2020, F-35 will be ahead of other competitors, but its still 20 year old technology.

    But then compare to a Rafale or even PAK FA?

    in reply to: Would F-35 make sense for India in 2020-2030 period? #2261363
    thobbes
    Participant

    It does depend on whether your self sufficiency comes at the expense of capability. No point in manufacturing tanks equivalent of T-55 if in a shooting war they’ll be facing Spike ATGMs and M1A2s.

    As for India’s fighter self sufficiency program, I’d call it a disaster. They’ve been trying to become self sufficient in fighters since 1950s (HF-24 Marut and Ajeet). Yet in 2013, they’re still importing large numbers of foreign aircraft and have even reverted to importing such basic things as trainers.

    In the meantime the Chinese who started off in an even poorer technological position are flying indigenous 5th generation stealth fighters.

    in reply to: Egypt 2013/14 – Potential for repeat of 1956 or 1967? #2261372
    thobbes
    Participant

    Characterizing the 1956 war as a “US led coalition” seems a rather embarassing claim to make.

    Never said 1956 was a US led coalition.

    In 2013 France and Britain lack any capability (or political mandate) to do a 1956-style operation, especially as Egypt has a larger conventional force (their air force is roughly equivalent in size to UK and France combined).

    The idea is a 1956 style take over of Suez. It would have to be a US led operation as only US has this kind of capability in 2013.

    in reply to: Egypt 2013/14 – Potential for repeat of 1956 or 1967? #2261378
    thobbes
    Participant

    Israel might especially if Egypt diverts attention to Israel as a focal point and the border starts heating up.

    Right now Egyptian and Israeli military still have reasonable relations but this could change.

    Israel has already launched strikes on Syria which is far less threatening in terms of capability than Egypt.

    in reply to: Would F-35 make sense for India in 2020-2030 period? #2261388
    thobbes
    Participant

    AMCA is a long way off. Right now MRCA is still another 5 years off.

    Basically India is looking at still acquiring large numbers of 4th generation fighters in 2020s (Rafale and Tejas). This is fine against Pakistan whose air force is stagnant and is facing terminal decline in terms of numbers of advanced aircraft available between now and 2020.

    But India wants to be a big power and it views China as a competitor. By 2020s China will be acquiring large numbers of 5th generation jets (J-20/J-31) and not 4th generation light fighters ala Tejas.

    India starts getting 5th generation in 2022 (FGFA) provided everything goes according to plan and then only 144 airframes. In essence 5th generation will be a silver bullet fleet for most of 2020s.

    Big powers offer massive numerical and technological overkill capability over lesser countries – India won’t do this over other powers in terms of technology e.g. Arabs or SE Asia (e.g. Singapore and Australia are both in on F-35 procurement) and domestic defence requirements mean its high end “silver bullet fleet” will probably be India and reserved for domestic defence.

    The real argument is “defence need/want” versus “industrial need/want.” The two get blurred in modern military procurement and these days “industrial need/want” tends to win out. Though in India pseudo-Socialist obsession with self sufficiency has always pushed the industrial need/want.

    F-35 works as a replacement for MiG-27, Jaguar and as a naval jet. In fact it would appear that the F-35 is the ideal replacement in the interdictor/strike role whilst PAK FA handles air superiority.

    P.S. I don’t like the F-35 – ugly little F-22 wannabe. But it serves a purpose.

    in reply to: B-1 down in Montana #2261392
    thobbes
    Participant

    Good to hear crew got out safely.

    in reply to: Lets help Iran design a stealth fighter/bomber :D #2261394
    thobbes
    Participant

    Given Iran’s general ability to design aircraft:

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ea/Vickers_Vimy.jpg

    Thing is made of radar absorbent materials – wood and fabric!

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2261424
    thobbes
    Participant

    A MiG-29 was lost this year and another in 2011. That makes it 15 out of 80 delivered to Indian Air Force since mid-1980s.

    This site is good for accidents especially if you go by year:

    http://www.ejection-history.org.uk/

    in reply to: Would F-35 make sense for India in 2020-2030 period? #2261427
    thobbes
    Participant

    Disadvantages:
    1. High priced fighter with capability limitations when compared to the F-35s of the other nations (USA won’t export high value technology to India)

    Hence I said 2020-2030 period. If F-35 program continues

    2. Limitations in the field operations of the F-35 (comes with strings attached)

    Not stopping them acquiring AH-64 and P-8.

    3. No transfer of technology

    Can be negotiated.

    4. More prone to embargoes

    True, though with Russian aircraft they’ve already suffered this during 1990s due to poor spares support which equates to roughly same thing.

    5. Reduction of jobs due to the cancellation of Tejas (even with local F-35 assembly/production)

    True but this is small fry (Indian population is 1 billion people).

    6. Destruction of the aerospace industry’s capacity to design aircraft

    The Indians are doing a good job of this themselves – e.g. Indian Air Force wants Swiss PC-7 Mk IIs and not HAL HTT-40s.

    7. Eventual cancellation of AMCA and Pak Fa due to US pressure

    Speculation. India is not Israel. UK and Italy continued with Eurofighter despite being part of F-35 program.

    in reply to: Would F-35 make sense for India in 2020-2030 period? #2261437
    thobbes
    Participant

    So in other words the suggestion is for India to abandon indigenous development? I don’t think that’s going to happen, nor should it happen.

    Nope, I did mention continue with AMCA. Also there’s indigenized PAK FA (FGFA).

    The Tejas does not offer anything new. Much like the JF-17 it is borderline obsolete.

    in reply to: Eurofighter Typhoon News and Updates #2261450
    thobbes
    Participant

    I don’t see much Eurofighter A2G capability increases in the future.

    The airframe is already on it’s way out with major users – both UK and Spain are planning on retiring/offering for sale Tranche 1 jets in near future. Spain would probably buy F-35s to replace F/A-18s in A2G role. That leaves Italy which is in F-35 boat and Germany which apparently is only paying lip service to A2G with JaBoG 31.

    In any case stupid EADS seems to have shot itself in the foot in South Korea by not adhering to the bid requirements.

    I think the only potential for new Eurofighter is Middle East – UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. That will probably amount to less than 100 airframes (UAE is buying additional F-16s to replace early build M2000s).

    Second hand ones might sell to Latin America.

    Everyone else is focused on Flanker/F-35.

    in reply to: How to Publish an Ideal Aviation Book on a Fighter #2261456
    thobbes
    Participant

    Get your facts right.

    Nothing irks me more than badly researched non-fiction books.

    in reply to: Strange Air Forces: Royal Malaysian Air Force #2261459
    thobbes
    Participant

    In Iraq I read that a Super Hornet loaded with bombs splashes a fighter and continued on to drop his load.

    It wasn’t a Super Hornet. It was “legacy” F/A-18Cs in 1991 and it was 2 F/A-18s shooting down 2 MiG-21s. No F/A-18E/Fs in existence at that time. Ironically same unit lost an F/A-18C to an Iraqi MiG-25.

    Most US multirole jets can do this – standard load outs for F-15E or F-16 usually includes self defence AMRAAMS.

Viewing 15 posts - 691 through 705 (of 2,012 total)