thobbesImpressive Ship………The Future USN is coming! DDG-1000’s, Ford Class CVN’s, F-35B/C’s, UCLASS, etc. etc.
Hardly the doom and gloom that many express here………
When you’re acquiring only 3 DDG-1000 instead of 32 planned, are acquiring 50+ undergunned next to useless LCS, are talking about cutting 3 fleet carriers, are cutting on maintenance and training and are cancelling deployments due to lack of funds, then you can understand the doom and gloom.
A few new toys doesn’t not offset decreased operational readiness or capability.
thobbes2. The USAF was satisfied enough with the capabilities of 3I to use it as an IOC point.
I get the feeling the IOC date is political one. Earlier IOC makes the program sound more successful.
Indeed the Marines have been pretending they have a operational F-35 squadron in order to make it look like the program successful.
After all definition of IOC is somewhat vague:
https://www.f35.com/news/detail/department-of-defense-announces-f-35-ioc-dates-for-all-services
Air Force F-35A initial operational capability (IOC) shall be declared when the first operational squadron is equipped with 12-24 aircraft, and Airmen are trained, manned, and equipped to conduct basic Close Air Support (CAS), Interdiction, and limited Suppression and Destruction of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD/DEAD) operations in a contested environment. Based on the current F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) schedule, the F-35A will reach the IOC milestone between August 2016 (Objective) and December 2016 (Threshold). Should capability delivery experience changes or delays, this estimate will be revised appropriately.
Marine Corps F-35B IOC shall be declared when the first operational squadron is equipped with 10-16 aircraft, and US Marines are trained, manned, and equipped to conduct CAS, Offensive and Defensive Counter Air, Air Interdiction, Assault Support Escort, and Armed Reconnaissance in concert with Marine Air Ground Task Force resources and capabilities. Based on the current F-35 JPO schedule, the F-35B will reach the IOC milestone between July 2015 (Objective) and December 2015 (Threshold). Should capability delivery experience changes or delays, this estimate will be revised appropriately.
Notice emphasis on term “basic.” What constitutes basic CAS? Is dropping unguided munitions “basic CAS”? What about limited SEAD/DEAD?
I’m sure there are far more detailed KPIs that constitute definition of “basic CAS” or “limited SEAD/DEAD.”
But you change KPIs downwards so the IOC requirement is met. In some cases you just have to reinterpret KPIs downwards too.
The Navy’s IOC seems even more vague:
Navy F-35C IOC shall be declared when the first operational squadron is equipped with 10 aircraft, and Navy personnel are trained, manned and equipped to conduct assigned missions. Based on the current F-35 JPO schedule, the F-35C will reach the IOC milestone between August 2018 (Objective) and February 2019 (Threshold). Should capability delivery experience changes or delays, this estimate will be revised appropriately.
thobbesInteresting article in the Torygraph! If they pull it off the shot in the arm for the Typhoon program would be amazing. Just chew over this particular paragraph:
I love how these Arab states expect Europe to do their dirty work. They’re rich in enough to afford extremely powerful militaries. In fact Saudi airforce has far more fighters than Britain. UAE has a sizeable fighter fleet too (140 aircraft).
But these are for show only and when the going gets tough, the Arabs want Westerners to bleed for them.
I wonder if they’ll expect British troops to put down Shia rebellions – I’ve read that it’s apparently considered a bit distateful using Muslims to kill other Muslims even if they’re from the other side.
It’s also hilarious we sledge Iran so much when these other people aren’t much better. But then the Sunni Arabs have brought the West off.
Personally I’d rather send the Eurofighters in, together with an invasion fleet. If we’re gonna be defending them, we might as well take over them, and control the oil in the first place.
thobbesIn that, they’re like almost every other country. Has Russia made amends for its past behaviour? Consider the Holodomor, or the killing of 25% of all Kazakhs in the late 1920s. What about Turkey & Armenia? There are others – including China.
Germany is the great exception.
My point was this is why Japan would not be trusted by other Asians in terms of security. Not many trust Russia (most are buffer states anyway with heavy Moscow influence – CSTO) or Turkey with these matters.
I totally agree on Germany being the great exception.
thobbesThose Cs and Ds are knocking on now, how much life do they have left. They will need replacing and it looks like F35 numbers wont do this. IMO the US should licence build a few hundred typhoon, (Rafale would appear in politicians eyes to be another hornet so any attempt wouldn’t pass congress ( hell USAF if you want a Hornet buy the Hornet).
Typhoon however would fit the niche as a good defensive fighter to support the F22/35, allegedly a role it is demonstrating admirably (even ignoring the hyperbole regarding DACT Kills etc see my sig).
Some 250-ish F-15C/Ds with reasonable airframe condition will be upgraded to serve at least into late 2020s. Also Es will be upgraded for A2A work.
I think the C/Ds will be replaced by F-35 or scrapped without replacement.
My other bugbears being X country said aircraft Y is the better plane (insert country and platform of choice). Therefore aircraft Y is better than aircraft Blah.
No it means aircraft Y is the best choice for the requirements of country X
Totally agree.
I am not convinced any one fighter is the best. I actually think that for 90% of countries F-16 or at best JAS-39C/D is still totally appropriate. Most don’t even need anything more than an F-16A/B-15 either as they’re main role is air policing and they operate such pitifully small numbers of jets as to be combat inneffective.
And in terms of pure performance, comparisons don’t take into account tactics, quality of aircrew, supporting assets, other offensive/defensive assets, strategic situation etc etc.
Remember German Panthers tanks were better than American mainstay Sherman (even 76mm upgunned versions), yet all of the above meant that the Germans lost and by Lorraine Shermans were killing more Panthers than Panthers were killing Shermans thanks to a combination of better tactics, better optics, degraded German training levels, lack of German reconnaissance, poor German tactical coordination etc etc.
2. Weapons Systems Operator – preferred for strike aircraft. ( agreed but advances mean this is changing)
I still think the dual seater has an advantage even with technological advances. Work sharing does make life easier for the crew.
I also think lack of two seater is one of F-35s biggest achillies heels.
5 (as far as SK is concerned) Its American
Probably the most important one.
My comments were to point out that if you** consider the Typhoon to be a legacy air to Air platform then you cannot conceivably apply this to the F15.
F-15 is as legacy as they come. But then so is most of the current crop of jets that aren’t fifth generation jets.
The only reason 4th gen still sells so well is that 5th generation is proving problematic in terms of development, timely service entry and cost effectiveness.
Basically the situation we have is the equivalent of F-14 first flying in 1970 and then F-16/-18 not acheiving IOC until 1990 and then not even close to full spec and horrifically over budget and no Mirage 2000, MiG-29 or Su-27 being available at all.
That’s what’s happened with 5th generation – F-22 first flight in 1997, F-35 IOC by 2016-17 with all of the above problems and no other competitors being available for export.
thobbesGuess you missed the Paveway LGB…
What about A2A missiles, AGMs etc?
Dassault is quite open to the integration of any weapon on its planes, the only problem is that such integration cost a fortune and has to be paid by the customer. In most cases it makes no sense as it’s costs less money to buy the French weapon that to buy the (hopefully) cheaper US weapon and pay for its integration.
Not if you already operate the US weapons which many operators do as their primary combat aircraft are American F-16 or F/A-18.
thobbesAh I see now. Thanks for the clarification.
thobbesMost airforces with such small fleets try to standardise on 1-2 types. It makes sense from a logistics perspective, a training perspective and even an operational perspective (e.g. 8 X F/A-18D doesn’t actually allow for that many operational examples).
thobbesThe problem is that massive shrinkages in fighter marets in European and North American markets have not been offset by equal increases elsewhere:
– Latin America and Africa are still small, insignificant markets and have also shrunk.
– Growth in Middle East is offset by loss of other customers due to political instability (e.g. Saudi Arabia buys, Iran does not, UAE buys, Iraq doesn’t buy much).
– Asia is mainly about fleet upgrading and not fleet expansion.
thobbesBirng_it_on, I think that’s fair assessment.
The Koreans are probably banking on KFX.
thobbesWhat about Taiwan, Turkey, Italy, Morocco, UAE, etc. Were they afraid of Soviets under the bed too? :rolleyes:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/f-16-fms.htm
Turks started buying F-16s in 1980s.
As did all these guys:
Bahrain
Belgium
Denmark
Egypt
Greece
Israel
Indonesia
Netherlands
Norway
Pakistan
Singapore
South Korea
Thailand
Venezuela
Most of these operators have been the large F-16 users with 200+ airframes.
Many made repeat orders in 1990s/2000s but they only did so because they had already brought F-16s in 1980s (otherwise it might’ve been some other airframe).
Only large operator that brought F-16s in 1990s was Taiwan (order signed about 1992). And they would’ve brought F-16 in 1980s if it was allowed.
Anyway the point I was making is that the conditions for the F-16 huge success don’t exist for the F-35. Hence apart from the (still) committed JSF partners, potential customers might turn elsewhere.
I totally agree.
I think the big problem is number of potential customers is in decline and most potential customers don’t buy anywhere close the number of aircraft they were buying in 1970s and 1980s.
Hence you can’t get the same economies of scale as you could with F-16.
How is that??? The USSR is no more and many Eastern European Countries (Poland for example) are in the Western Camp. Clearly, they’re not going to be purchasing much if any Russian Equipment.
And Poland is only potential buyer – the others will probably sooner scrap their fast jet capability and outsoruce air defence to Western Europe than buy F-35.
Plus, add Middle Eastern Countries like Iraq to that.
No due to Israeli lobby and no due to increasing instability across the region. As for Iraq it is spiralling into hell again in terms of insurgency.
That instability isn’t going anywhere either. It’s just starting.
Inadditon what about India to boot!
No way. They’re already commited to 6 new fighter programs (Su-30, MiG-29K, Tejas, Rafale, PAK FA and then AMCA). PAK FA and AMCA are there future.
Honestly the market for the F-35 is going to be extremely good in the next 20-30 years plus………
Compared to Eurocannards, the future for F-35 is bright. The F-35 is the future mainstay of Western aligned forces.
Compared to F-4/-5/-16/-84/-86/-104, F-35 future is sad with far lower numbers produced.
thobbesYet still no integration of American weapons which would actually do wonders to increase it’s marketability to NATO airforces.
What happened to the French – in the past they tried to cater to export requirements (e.g. shoving an Avon in a Mirage III) or you could at least attach AIM-9s or AIM-4s to the Mirage.
But now it’s “buy French and only French”.
I had read somewhere the France peeves of potential buyers by insisting on selling whole weapons packages e.g. you want to buy Rafales but French insist you buy French tanks, ships, rifles etc etc.
thobbesKorea can afford a lot…….
I know it’s hard for Americans to understand, but some people like to stay on budget. :highly_amused:
I am sure the Koreans are looking at keeping this “FIGHTER” relevant for a lot longer then 10 years. Having said that, i do agree however that the current time-line for this program is not suitable for an affordable F-35 acquisitions program. Perhaps if they were looking at acquiring fighters around 2025, the F-35 could have offered a killer bid. Even then, the Koreans would weigh in the capability and cost, and perhaps the F-35 does come out on top. The Typhoon is a great fighter, but i do not think that ROKAF will choose a non US product.
I agree.
F-15 is still viable in 10 years and probably will be in 20 years time too. The reason is North Asian fleets are large and 4th generation aircraft will linger for a long time in large numbers, just like 3rd generation aircraft are still used in large numbers.
The USAF is planning on keeping F-15C/D as air superiority aircraft into this period as well.
F15 Was THE fighter of the 80s/90s on everyone’s fantasy fleet list. Now the design is getting long in the tooth, which isn’t to say its not still an excellent aircraft.
I’m not sure how you came to the conclusion that an aircraft designed from day 1 to be multi role * and a generation** younger than the “Not a pound for Air to Ground” F15 is the Cold war Air to Air legacy fighter.
The Eurofighter and F-15 (and F-14 lest we forget) are similar in that both were air superiority platforms that were then converted to strike role.
F-15E/K/SG has a few advantages over Eurofighter in bomb truck role:
1. Greater payload (10,400 kg v 7,500 kg).
2. Weapons Systems Operator – preferred for strike aircraft.
3. Slightly more combat range
4. Integration of all US weapons (Eurofighter still doesn’t have this).
thobbesIt looked like it stalled – though it obviously didn’t.
How do the pilots cope with such wierd maneouvres?
thobbesMaybe they could afford to operate Typhoons if they stopped funding Islamists in Syria. :eagerness:
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