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thobbes

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Viewing 15 posts - 766 through 780 (of 2,012 total)
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  • in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2267334
    thobbes
    Participant

    I would not be surprised if some Gulf state grabbed the Spanish offer of 2nd hand Tranche 1 Typhoons regardless of the UAE’s pick.

    I’ve had the same thought myself.

    Or they are simply waiting for someone to offer them the 2000-5 buyout for a good price.

    They tried off loading the M2000-5s a few years ago. From memory there were negotiations with India, but these came to nothing.

    thobbes
    Participant

    [*]Staying power: Asking a short-handed crew and passengers (living in containers!) to cook and fend for themselves for long periods of time without additional support personnel and “creature comforts” is unrealistic and counter-productive given the goal of maximizing “presence” with long deployments
    .

    It’s amazing how times have changed. Creature comforts on naval vessels were unheard of even in most of the 20th century.

    But you’re right – the modern Western soldier requires a lot more create comforts than the troops of old. But then don’t we all? 😛

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2267336
    thobbes
    Participant

    With MMRCA and India’s follow up orders, and most of Malaysia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and possibly/eventually Brazil, I think Rafale would be doing just fine.

    You’re assuming Rafale gets all of these. Media rumblings rumour Eurofighter has gained favour in UAE but that may be just speculation.

    and it’s success should not be measured by such an unrealistic yard-stick as how close it comes to total F-35 sales.

    My point was that the Rafale has very limited options in terms of exports. In the past Dassault sold to European countries (Belgium, Spain, Greece, Switzerland), Australia and Israel.

    These markets are pretty much gone, mainly thanks to American aircraft.

    And even Spain and Greece won’t go French again, even if they had money. Spain has Eurofighter and Greece nearly ordered Eurofighter as well, and probably would go for F-35 if they had the cash.

    Latin American market has dwindled for them too – Chile has gone over to American, Peru to Russia, and Colombia, Ecuador and Argentina no longer buy new aircraft like they did in the 1970s.

    Middle East market has also to shrunk to some degree with loss of Lybia, Iraq, Egypt and Morroco (brought F-16s over Rafale) as customers for Dassault products.

    East Asia has never had any Dassault users, but then neither have British manufactuers. Malaysia is about the only potential here.

    Can these programs achieve an adequate number of exports compared to launch customers and development costs is all that matters.

    Both the Gripen and Eurofighter have been more successful than the Rafale in terms of number of countries selecting them. Eurofighter export orders are up to 99 aircraft with Saudi Arabia interested in more and obvious potential in UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Malaysia (the latter 4 same as Rafale).

    But even then those are pretty much it in terms of opportunity.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2267619
    thobbes
    Participant

    And Qatar has had significant differences in foreign policy vs. Saudis and UAE and Kuwait, and vice versa. Including in backing different forces in the region.

    Yes but then so does NATO – look at German response to Libyan operation including pulling out of AWACS crews.

    Coalition operations is no impediment to them each operating EF and Rafale, those have successfulfully participated in coalition ops (UK/FR:Libya),
    and basing/spares could be shared with UK/FR as needed: not really a differentiator in the utility of either platform.
    Independent acts of open war outside of US/EU alliance is unlikely for regimes for whom maintaining alliances with foreign colonial powers is central to their self preservation (vs. own populace).

    I think they’re looking more at Arab coalitions without dwindling NATO/USA help (e.g. look at NATO response to Syria).

    There’s other items showing some sort of interest in being able to deploy externally – acquisition of C-17s, UAE is apparently setting up batalion of Western troops for foreign intervention etc.

    Greater loiter and strike capability including passive countermeasures vs. ground radars …OR… greater A2A capability vs. what high-end threat air force…?

    And that’s why the Omanis and Saudis brought Eurofighters? :eagerness: There’s a lot more that goes into Gulf Arab defence procurement than mere defence requirements – corruption, prestige and garnering political favour rank much higher.

    Is this an argument for why anybody would pay attention to what GCC Sheikdoms are procuring? 🙂

    To be honest, no. And one of the main reasons is that anyone else who can afford such equipment also usually has access to F-35.

    I mean, flat out, these are countries that have not put forth any objective criteria for a prospective jet sale, financial or performance wise.

    I believe so, all though none of the other gulf countries would be, and this isn’t really a fundamental distinction between EF and Rafale.

    Never said they did put forward objective criteria. In fact I suspect a lot of subjective criteria such as prestige and corruption come into it.

    These sheikdoms are hardly ones to act outside of narrow self interest, so following UAE’s lead just to develop UAE’s economy is hardly something to count on.

    Supporting a Muslim over a Westerner is good for narrow self interest and especially in terms of propaganda.

    So… greater strike capability including passive countermeasures vs. ground radars vs. greater A2A capability with Iran airforce not remotely up to modern standards…?

    And the Saudis and Omanis brought Eurofighter.

    I will say that Brazil seems unlikely to manifest Rafale sales at this point, although what they will likely manifest is Mirage 2000 sales, which is something that UAE and Qatar would want to manifest if they inducted new planes to replace their Mirages, and Eurofighter can really do nothing to help on that account, effectively making the deal that much more expensive for Eurofighter.

    I agree.

    I think that both the Eurofighter and Rafale are screwed. Western rich buy F-35, whilst rich US aligned Asians buy US aircraft. Russia has its market for both second hand and new build jets.

    The poorer countries are usually happy with second hand F-16s or MiG-29s.

    That means that the Middle East Gulf States are the main source of market potential for any future orders for Rafale and Eurofighter.

    in reply to: Japanese Plastic Model Trolls the Chinese Military #1996499
    thobbes
    Participant

    It’s funny people think Russia’s military capability is in decline. It’s the only European military other than Turkey that is growing whilst all others are in near terminal decline.

    Even in Asia, Japanese and Taiwanese military growth and development appears stagnant – one due to emphasis on indigenisation and the other due to an undeclared yet effective arms embargo.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2267672
    thobbes
    Participant

    That one man was the highest French defence official and probabled speaking opinions based on intelligence and diplomatic sources.

    As to other points:

    1. Interoperability: The big change for Gulf States is that in the past their defence needs were purely local. Now they’re looking at expeditionary warfare/intervention – e.g. Qatar and UAE both participated in Libya.

    There was also a joint Saudi-UAE intervention in Bahrain – obviously at request of Bahraini government.

    Some of these states are also agitating for a Syrian intervention.

    2. Why would they care what India got? India’s procurement processes are so plagued by corruption and bureaucratic innefficiency, that I doubt anyone takes their decisions too seriously.

    3. Isn’t the UAE demanding some sort of local production/content (could be wrong)? Whatever the case, UAE hass been pushing development a local arms industry over the last few years.

    4. As per 1 – emphasis on external intervention and in particular anything involving the wider Shia-Sunni slugfest that has become the true driving factor in Middle Eastern politics (Israel on the other hand has become a side issue).

    However they still might opt for different purchases.

    But Qatari’s at least have been mulling an M2000-5 replacement for a long time now and appear to be waiting on UAE decision.

    http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/qatar-fighter-choice-still-up-in-the-air.html

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2267676
    thobbes
    Participant

    History appears to be irrelevant.

    This was according to French Defence Minister, Gérard Longuet:

    http://rafalenews.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/qatar-and-kuwait-waiting-for-uae-to.html

    http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/qatar-and-kuwait-wait-to-follow-uaes-lead-over-purchase-of-rafale-fighter-jets-from-france

    As for reasons why, maybe:

    1. Creating further interoperability in GCC.

    2. Prestige: don’t want to be seen as flying an aircraft rejected by UAE.

    3. If UAE fighter has any local content, GC players might be wanting to get in on supporting UAE industry as support for a fellow GC/muslim country’s industrial development.

    4. There could be some economies of scale involved, especially if UAE does have any local content input..

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2267693
    thobbes
    Participant

    If one listen carefully Le Drian , he counts mainly on India and Qatar , so 18+(around)26 Rafale.

    Qatar is apparently waiting on UAE to make a decision on Mirage 2000 replacement. And if media reports are correct, UAE preferences are trending towards Eurofighter.

    So if things go as predicted, UAE gets Eurofighter and then Qatar follows.

    By the way Kuwait is also looking onto UAE to help decide on F/A-18C/D replacement.

    And Oman and Saudi Arabia have also opted for Eurofighter

    I think if Rafale doesn’t get UAE order, it’s chances for Middle Eastern sales are completely sunk. And in turn that will probably mean it’s only export potential other than India is the perpetually delayed Brazillian competition.

    Oh and even India is dithering in terms of contract signing.

    in reply to: Japanese Plastic Model Trolls the Chinese Military #1996530
    thobbes
    Participant

    Aso is an idiot, a hereditary aristocrat (if they hadn’t been abolished in 1947) whose family includes three former prime ministers, a princess, former cabinet ministers, etc. But for those connections, he’d be a nonentity. I doubt that he has more than a very hazy idea of European history (he’d not be alone in that among Asian politicians, BTW) or any idea of how Hitler & the Nazis are regarded in Europe & the Anglosphere.

    Problem is he is an idiot in a high position in government and technically 2IC.

    Imagine if Joe Biden went around spewing this kind of stuff. Just because he has no power doesn’t mean other players wouldn’t regard his opinions as at least reflecting some kind of opinion in US political circles.

    Whatever the case, Japan is not viewed highly as a potential source of security in Asia. Too much really nasty history.

    in reply to: Japanese Plastic Model Trolls the Chinese Military #1996726
    thobbes
    Participant

    I agree with your assessment TR1.

    in reply to: Japanese Plastic Model Trolls the Chinese Military #1996730
    thobbes
    Participant

    Except collective security arrangements usually have some sort of mutual obligation built into them.

    And if by some sort of flying pig incident, things get heated, it might suit Russia for Japan and PRC to slug it out over Senkakus, especially if Japanese are rearming.

    And how do you resolve Kuril Island dispute? You cannot have a collective secruity arrangement when not only are you at loggerheads with your perspective partner about disputed territory, but technically you are still at war with each other.

    Do you think Japanese will give up Kurils for Russian support of Japanese claim on Senkakus?

    Especially when strategically Kuril Islands are far more important to Japanese security than Senkakus as Kuril Islands are extremely close to to Hokkaido (one of Japan’s 4 main islands and 2nd biggest ones). Russians have airbases on Kuril Islands.

    Also Japanese population of these islands was expelled by Russians so there’s a bit of a sense of grievance as well.

    Position of Senkakus

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/07/Senkaku_Diaoyu_Tiaoyu_Islands.png/300px-Senkaku_Diaoyu_Tiaoyu_Islands.png

    Position of Kuril Islands

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/29/Sea_of_Okhotsk_map.png/657px-Sea_of_Okhotsk_map.png.

    thobbes
    Participant

    Do you have any military experience or knowledge?

    I do know that NZ nearly didn’t procure ANZAC frigates either. There was massive debate in NZ as to the need for frigates. They were brought not out of need, but rather out of politics.

    Otherwise NZ really will become Australia’s second military reserve force.

    NZ plays an important role in humanitarian operations.

    They’re also very active in Pacific region, which Australia tends to ignore.

    in reply to: Turkish Air Force – News & Discussion #2268462
    thobbes
    Participant

    Any reason for such a large portion of pilots quitting at same time?

    in reply to: China fueling Naval Arms Race??? #1996733
    thobbes
    Participant

    Not saying they’re better off.

    Just saying the USA ultimately lost the war.

    in reply to: Japanese Plastic Model Trolls the Chinese Military #1996735
    thobbes
    Participant

    I guess you must have missed the Russian exercise Vostok 2010. Apparently you have not been keeping up with current events:

    “….In June and July 2010, Russian armed forces conducted Vostok 2010, a series of 10-day unprecedented military exercises. These were made up of a set of strategic exercises that involved 20,000 troops, up to 70 warplanes and 30 warships from the Far Eastern, Siberian and Volga-Urals military districts, as well as the Pacific Fleet. Designed primarily to put the military to the test, these wargames were also a warning to Chinese military officials who were present during the exercise. Vostok 2010 simulated a response to a possible attack from China. It included the firing of live ammunition, simulated airborne assaults and amphibious assault landings…..”

    The Russians conducted re-deployment of forces from European Russia as they demonstrated the ability to re-enforce Eastern Forces in response to a simulated Chinese attack

    “…..Another first, was the redeployment of Sukhoi Su-24M frontline bombers and Su-34 multi-role fighters from bases in the European part of Russia 8,000 km away in non-stop flights with two in-flight refuellings. The exercise also marked the first time mechanised infantry airlifted from the Ural Mountains used heavy weapons stored at reserve depots established near the Chinese border…..”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_2010

    Yup and in July 2013:

    http://english.ruvr.ru/news/2013_07_11/China-Russia-complete-extensive-naval-exercise-9701/

    China and Russia on Wednesday completed the extensive Naval Interaction 2013 exercise in the Far East, said a representative of Russia’s Pacific Fleet.

    4,000 servicemen participated in the drills, with China sending four guided-missile destroyers, two guided-missile frigates, a supply ship, three shipborne helicopters and a special operations detachment to the drills. The Russian Pacific Fleet sent more than ten ships, led by its flagship, the guided-missile cruiser “Varyag”.

    The active phase of the exercise, July 8 to 10, included rescuing a hijacked ship, escorting commercial vessels, and defending a convoy from air and sea attacks. On the final day the two countries held a search and rescue operation to assist a vessel in distress; there was artillery shooting practice at different types of surface and air targets, as well as a drill to locate and destroy a maneuver submarine.

    The exercise ended with a parade of warships from the two countries in the Peter the Great Bay.
    Read more: http://english.ruvr.ru/news/2013_07_11/China-Russia-complete-extensive-naval-exercise-9701/

    Also
    http://gulftoday.ae/portal/0d7894a3-1f02-4529-97a9-564f8a5a9abc.aspx

    As stated Russians will maintain independence.

    They will not submit to being part of some sort of collective security agreement where they don’t have absolute power.

    And they view the Japanese as a source of hostility as much as China.

    EDIT:

    Also the Russians have been exercising attacking Scandinavian countries recently as well.

Viewing 15 posts - 766 through 780 (of 2,012 total)