You talk about vague possibilities of others upgrading in the near future, but what examples can you give? What air forces do you think might upgrade their F-5Es?

Possible upgrades?

Morrocco

Kenya (who have acquired an additional batch recently).

Tunisia

Chile might go for a second upgrade of it’s Tiger IIIs if they can’t afford a replacement (all dependent on resource prices.

Iran will probably also upgrade its aircraft albeit not with state of art AESA radars. It’ll probably be some homegrown program that does little to improve capability.

Other users:

Bahrain – probably replace with a Eurocannard.
Botswana – operates CF-5D. Operational status questionable

Honduras – will probably soldier on until retired without replacement

Indonesia – aircraft in storage.

Jordan – one squadron operational. Probably no upgrade and instead replace with more second hand F-16s.

Malaysia – 6 aircraft in service and will probably be phased out by 2020. Minor comms upgrade had been conducted.
Mexico – will probably soldier on as is.

Saudi Arabia – remaining few are being replaced by Eurofighters.
Singapore – already upgraded – to be replaced by F15SG and F-35
South Korea – being replaced by F/A-50
Spain – upgraded SF-5B’s serve as LIFT.
Sudan – operational status questionable
Switzerland – to be replaced by leased JAS-39C/D

Taiwan – phase out planned by 2020, though no replacement in sight.
Thailand – already upgraded.
Turkey – replaced by T-38 Talon

Yemen – focusing on MiG-29 deliveries

Venezuela – operational status questionable.

As you can see by 2020, F-5 fleet will have dropped considerably.

However for the users that retain it, it will probably be the last jet they ever operate and thus an upgrade is plausible to keep them flying.

Yes if China attacks Japan, the USA and it some of its allies will jump in.

Others may not – Singapore has a large Chinese population and prefers to make money than wage war. Their bigger concerns are their much bigger neighbours (Malaysia and Indonesia) hence they carry the biggest stick in the SEA region, bar Vietnam.

Unless Uncle Sam pulls the chain, most players will sit out. Lapdogs ala Australia would jump in as soon as they could.

But why do you assume China will attack Japan? :confused:

China may be playing hard ball, but they’re using Coast Guard ships and planes and generally staying within the limits of international law. The issue will probably continue to bubble along just like Kuril Islands dispute between Japan and Russia has since 1956 or the Spratleys since 1945 or Liancourt between Japanese and South Korea since 1952.

The Chinese aren’t idiots and they’re not suicidal.

They’re certainly not cliche megalomaniacs despite what the average US or Australian citizen may think.

Can you mention any?

Asia Pacific is not Europe.

Most of Asian countries don’t get along and have ancient disputes that have simmered for years. In Europe, WWII solved a lot of these disputes (massed ethnic cleansing of ethnic Germans post 1945 helped).

The glue that binds Asian countries in a relatively similar direction is the United States of America.

Without USA, Asian countries don’t really have any meaningful defence ties and are more likely to be at each other’s throats.

Who are these non-US allies with powerful navies?

Especially ones that will go into bat for Japan over some disputed islands.

Certainly not the South Koreans who also have a territorial dispuite with Japan over Laincourt Rocks and in which South Korea has deployed it’s Coast Guard. ANd South Korea’s relationship with Japan is one of distrust due to Japan’s brutal colonial legacy.

Taiwan certainly isn’t going to defend Japanese interests – the Taiwanese have much more to lose and certainly wouldn’t want to give the Chinese an excuse to attempt an invasion.

Or the Filipinos with their WWII era non-operational minesweeper fleet.

The Australians will only play if the USA plays.

SE Asians won’t play either and probably not even in Uncle Sam gets involved.

Japan’s navy is powerful and I suspect at least a decent match against the Chinese. However Japanese are lacking in certain things – i.e. offensive firepower. China can easily hit Japanese bases with missiles and the ballistic missile defence system won’t stop them all – there’s no such thing as a perfect defence.

Also North Koreans have managed to get missiles flying over Japanese territory without the JMSDF being able to do much about it.

The Chinese also don’t have to match the Japanese ship-for-ship. There’s submarines, aircraft, mines and ground based missiles – modern naval warfare is about combined arms.

I like single-engine aircraft — F-16, Mirage 2K, F-8/A-7, MiG-23, etc. — and their simplicity and elegance is a big part of it. I think Gripen E/F is going to be hot sex and hope TF-X and LMFS are single-engine designs also. But F-35 … no. Simple, elegant, or graceful are not adjectives I would use for that aircraft. Like late-model F-16, it looks overfed.

Totally agree.

Original F-16s were some of the nicest looking aircraft around. They look daft these days especially with those fat CFTs and chunky dorsal spines.

At least USAF still operates them in a relatively clean configuration.

F-22 is ugly in a bad way – too many angles, not enough curves.

It doesn’t even look mean ala F-4 Phantom or A-10 Thunderbolt.

Indian Rafale deal on backburner