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thobbes

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Viewing 15 posts - 76 through 90 (of 2,012 total)
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  • in reply to: Tally of A2A kills since 2000 #2231770
    thobbes
    Participant

    Libyan Galeb had landed when Rafale destroyed it.

    No A2A that I’m aware of in Latin American – last one was Cenepa War in 1995. Could’ve been some shoot downs of civilian drug runners that I’m not aware off.

    Also not aware on any African kills but could be same as Latin America.

    Have updated for MiG-29 shootdown of UAV and Ethiopan Su-27 kills.

    Poor MiG-29 stands as the only fighter to be shotdown in the 2000s.

    in reply to: Military Aviation News-2013 #2231863
    thobbes
    Participant

    Frecce Tricolori to reequip with Alenia Aermacchi M345

    Nice to see at least one aerobatics team get some love in this day and age of fiscal responsibility.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2231868
    thobbes
    Participant

    Rafale looks better in camo than in grey.

    thobbes
    Participant

    US has fiddle with pre-emptive strikes since the reinvention of cruise missiles -every time

    But have never really achieved the Israeli 1967 result which was a masterpiece in application of the military art.

    in reply to: Waging an air war in North Asia – 2025 Scenario #2231873
    thobbes
    Participant

    In that case geopolitics may have very well played a large part in this deal, at least more than it says on surface

    I suspect geo-politics did play a big role.

    HQ-9 fits for Turkey – useable against all potential threats – Russia, Greece (US aligned and equipped) and Israel (US aligned and equipped).

    I wouldn’t say that — because we don’t hear about all the instances US cyber-intelligence manage to hack into chinese systems either.

    My point was from a political perspective. It looks bad if you sue someone because they managed to get your defence secrets and then turn it into a marketable program. The media loves this kind of stuff especially if it makes government look incompetent.

    However it would be embarrassing if US put up a fuss after the chinese won a competition, because it would almost be like crying foul because your product lost in a fair* competition.

    (*Fair meaning the cost, capability, and terms each vendor produced without bribery or coercion etc. Also, let’s not exaggerate the degree to which espionage may have benefitted various defence products — it’s not just a matter of ctrl c, ctrl v, you really need to know your s**t to pull anything useful from one product into your own, and it would require time as well, so even if China say creates a carbon copy of F-35 in 2020, that doesn’t say anything about US counter intelligence vigilance in 2020, but rather in the 2000s or maybe early 2010s.)

    Totally agree.

    Whatever the case, counter intelligence seems crtical to maintaining an edge.

    Since the 1960s the Chinese have proven to be masters of reverse engineering. If they can turn that into developing technological leadership, then it could pose problems.

    Mind you technological leadership means nothing without actual tactical and human resource leadership. As I always say, fancy toys are useless if you don’t know how to use them properly.

    thobbes
    Participant

    So this might be something to expect in the future once 6th generation becomes common place (like in 2050)?

    It would make pre-emptive strikes especially vicious – expect a 1967 type scenario every time.

    in reply to: Waging an air war in North Asia – 2025 Scenario #2231883
    thobbes
    Participant

    I think part of it was also price, and possibly favourable co production and tech exchange terms (as well as others? I wonder if backend economic incentives may have played a part?)

    Anyway this sale does possibly indicate a turkey that is more willing to go out it alone beyond NATO — how integrated politically is turkey to NATO these days?

    But this deal may still sour yet, I won’t light any cigars until the first FD-2000s in turkish colours enter service.

    Turkey is definitely shifting East wards. They’re rebranding themselves as a Muslim country and not a secular country. I guess that’s what happens when EU won’t let you into their decripit little playground.

    The other issue is Cyprus and its potential oil-gas reserves which the American aligned Israel is working at getting, regardless of Turkey’s wishes.

    It’ll be interesting in future as more chinese products compete with western and russian peers, if they try to make a case for IP infringement.

    It would be embarassing for Americans as it would show their counter-intelligence services to be useless and incapable of stopping Chinese spying efforts.

    thobbes
    Participant

    So if tracking technology fails to keep up with stealth technology, we’ll we be back to pre-1930s – knife fighting dog fights based on near random encounters as there is no way for anyone to actually reliably track enemy aircraft?

    thobbes
    Participant

    The Israelis would be missing other toys too – e.g. the essential E-2C Hawkeye AWACS that proved so useful in 1982.

    I also don’t think the French could’ve undertaken an Operation Nickel Grass – I think Israel would’ve gone the nuclear option as a result in 1973.

    in reply to: Waging an air war in North Asia – 2025 Scenario #2231933
    thobbes
    Participant

    I think there’s a risk even with downgraded versions as the basic infrastructure is still there including both hardware and software as well as obvious aerodymanic design.

    You are right – it’s amazing that a Chinese system defeated Western ones in a NATO competition.

    If it is a downgraded monkey model, than it’s even more amazing and one wonders what tricks the Chinese have up their sleaves that the West doesn’t know about.

    EDIT:
    If it is based on the Patriot, surely there are intellectual property rights the US could use to try to use to appeal the competition?

    in reply to: Small Air Forces Thread #16 #2231942
    thobbes
    Participant

    Classic bird and nice photos!

    Didn’t someone comment that the Malaysians are finding out their fancy new A-109s are nowhere near as rugged as the old Alouette? The SA315B Lama derivative (Alouette III systems on Alouette II airfram) is one fine piece of engineering and a great chopper if you want to fly hot and/or high.

    in reply to: Waging an air war in North Asia – 2025 Scenario #2231948
    thobbes
    Participant

    Nothing out of the ordinary – except all the bits of the recipe that can be used to counter it though jamming etc.

    Some of the most classified stuff in defence is Electronics and Signals because it’s the key to the kingodm. If you can jam or electronically fry an enemy’s system you’ve won the battle (e.g. Israeli jamming and then destruction of Syrian AD systems in Lebanon in 1982 or even Israeli neutralisation of Syrian AD in 2012-13).

    in reply to: Waging an air war in North Asia – 2025 Scenario #2231956
    thobbes
    Participant

    Turkey has selected HQ-9 over Patriot PAC-3 after thorough evaluation. HQ-9 is one of the most advanced and capable air defense missiles in the world, and operates with HT-233 phased array air defense radar. Taiwan better watch out.

    At least the US and co will be able to have a look to see what makes HQ-9s tick.

    It’s an interesting choice though.

    Are Turkish HQ-9s different to Chinese ones? Selling one of your main AD systems to a country in a strong alliance with your main enemy seems like a risky proposition unless it’s a downgraded system.

    And even if downgraded, you’re still giving a lot away in terms of intel.

    thobbes
    Participant

    Good post Low Observable.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2) #2231968
    thobbes
    Participant

    Have you seen pictures of Beirut in the 1980s?

    Bombardments/artillery barrages don’t kill too many people – look at tallies of fatalities of Allied bombing runs over Europe. Even I and my family weren’t hit by shrapnel when our house was hit by a Serbian mortar round.

    It’s economic and infratstructure damage and political ramifications of being unable to stop the destruction.

    To put it this way:

    1. Imagine your life now.
    2. Now add in artillery bombardment – even if sporadic.
    3. All of a sudden you’re not going to work, you’re living in a cellar/shelter (lest someone get lucky), you’re not going to work, your kids aren’t going to school, you’re social life disappears.
    4. Occassional lucky hits means electricity and water goes out.
    5. Getting basic necessities such as food becomes risky.
    6. Normality grinds to a halt.

    Easy for military nerds to talk about “overestimating” deaths. But the impact of this kind of stuff on people, the economy etc is huge. I’ve experienced it first hand.

    The other issue is chemical weapons which would increase casualty rates massively.

Viewing 15 posts - 76 through 90 (of 2,012 total)