The J-10’s and J-11’s will be available in vast numbers and will be supplemented by Stealthy 5th Generation Fighters like the J-20 and J-31. The latter will likely be available in numbers far greater than India’s planned order for FGFA’s. In addition the former Chinese Types could be available to Pakistan as well. Which, mean India could face such types on two fronts and in greater numbers!!!

And they’re working on resolving how to cope with this by investment in Su-30, Pak Fa, MRCA, LCA etc.

As for the other types like the J-7’s and J-8’s. China can afford to replace them far faster than India.

Yet it hasn’t replaced them en masse.

I would also remind you that India has vast fleets of older aircraft too! (Mig-21’s, Jaguars, etc.)

Yup.

Thus far India doesn’t plan of purchasing the FGFA (PAK-FA) in great number but that could change? As for Chinese 5th Generation Fighters it will be years before we have a clear idea of their true capabilities. Of course that could also be said of the Russian PAK-FA. What is of concern is China has made so much progress and so fast to boot. Further, China has no problem stealing what it wants and has vast resources that Russia and India are not likely to match anytime soon!

Personally, I wouldn’t bring up delays in Chinese Defense Programs. As the Russian/India Record is extremely poor!

Yup!

Like I said the next war in nothing like the last! Regardless, let’s look at the Indian Ocean. China already has an Aircraft Carrier in Service. It’s still working up but it will be the match of either of the Indian Carriers that will be coming into service in the next few years. As for the future of Aircraft Carriers in the Indian Navy. From what I’ve heard the IAC-2 is on hold and it’s final design is still pretty much up in the air. China on the other hand has plans in place for New Aircraft Carriers that are Larger and may even be Nuclear Powered! In addition China has the J-31 in Development. Which, is said to be a Stealthy 5th Generation Fighter design to operate from Carriers. India has no such type in development. I could possibly get a Naval PAK-FA at some point. Yet, that is 20 years off and even if funded would be ill suited to operate from it’s smaller carriers……..

All of that sounds good except you forget a couple of things:

1.China’s has more concerns than just India
– China has current outstanding disputes with most of SE Asia (Spratleys) and Japan.
– China has current outstanding dispute with Taiwan involving existence of Taiwan
– It has a history of conflict with nearly all it’s neighbours including Russia and Vietnam

Hence China has massive requirements for forces to be stationed facing it’s East Asian neighbours.

Makes any war against India in South East difficult if you have to maintain massive forces in East and North of country.

If you don’t believe me check out out PLAAF orbat and look at the map at where Chinese air bases are located.

http://www.scramblemagazine.nl/orbats/china/airforce

China’s military is largely obsolete
– This includes all branches of the military including the large army.
– Any conflict risks destruction of more modern components which would be used over obsolete units. This includes critical crew/personnel losses.

The USA is still a massive super power
– And it’s reemphasising Pacific with new deployments to Pacific including basing of Marines in Australia and 60% of Navy to be based in region (as opposed to 50%). Pacific forces are also getting creme of new equipment – e.g. 3 squadrons of F-22s are tasked to PACAF compared to 3 for continental US and 0 for USAFE as well as most upgraded F-15s.

PACAF is also scheduled to get F-35s early on.

China is geographically constrained by long borders with potential hostile intentions and lack of adequate ocean access

– A bit hard getting carrier groups through such littoral waters as found in the main shipping lanes from Pacific to Indian Ocean, unless you go into Pacific and then swing into the Southern Ocean under Australia.

China would not want to risk humiliation in open conflict or a potential nuclear strike

I guess India has no threats and is wasting it’s valuable resources then………( I personally doubt India would agree!)

India’s threat are Pakistan and China in North, not some vague long range deployments by PLAN without access to friendly bases that out of harms way and can support a CBG.

Carrier Battle Group are extremely hard to detect even today……..Plus, the threat is not likely to come from just one direction.

As stated you first have to get CBG to Indian Ocean.

I wouldn’t be surprised if US fed India intel (just like they fed Iraq intel against Iran in 1980-88).

Clearly, India would be in a far better position if it joined an Alliance with the United States and it’s Allies. (European or Asian) Yet, it hasn’t and most nations wouldn’t risk war with China. If, they can’t count on India to support them! (and they don’t)

Clearly the Indians don’t see a benefit becoming a lickspittle to Uncle Sam.

Uncle Sam is already willing to help out India anyhow in terms of weapons sales and cooperation on nuclear weapons development.

PRC would never engage in a full scale war with China because of a number of factors:

1. Need to maintain large forces in North to counter Russia and East to counter everyone else, including USA.

2. Risk of humiliation.

3. Difficulty of fighting India due to geographical reasons – Himalayas are not friendly to full scale warfare and long range deployments by PLAN are difficulting to sustain.

4. Risk of Indian nuclear reprisal.

Don’t forget Pakistan…………

Yes and it was an Indian concern that they lack resources to take on Pakistan whilst maintaining sufficient forces to deter China.

Scooter, I doubt the Indian Navy cares if Italy/UK etc adopts F-35 or even if China inducts J-31 by 2025.

The Indian Navy is charged with areas of maritime operations and primarily around Indian Ocean.

They are not concerned with what Europeans are doing or even operations in the Himalayas against PRC J-31s (this is where the IAF takes charge).

If you don’t believe me, look at Indian Navy Vision Statement 2006:

The Indain Navy’s role is seen as [i]”safeguarding our maritime interests on the high seas and projecting power across the (Indian Ocean) littoral.”

Now who in the Indian Ocean will operate Fifth Generation jets by 2025: Australia, USA and Singapore. If you push the scope of Indian Ocean to include Red Sea, then Israel as well.

How many potential foes will operate 5th generation aircraft: 0 unless PRC starts basing aircraft there. But given PRC’s primary concern is Pacific, it’s most likely that first J-20/-31 are based there.

One might mention Indian deployments into South China Sea for exercises with Asian countries, but even the USN is questioning the viability of carriers in the various seas due to growing Chinese AShM capabilities.

So again, MiG-29K is perfectly adequate for next 10-15 years.

yOU SAID:

Has nothing to do with India becoming a Client State of the United States. If, that where true I guess the UK, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Israel, etc. etc. etc. must all be puppets of the US then. :rolleyes:

The point is the US is the Worlds Largest Arms Supplier and offers the Best Equipment. (as a whole)

My point is that a lot of those countries are “client states” of the USA and that countries that wish to maintain independent foreign policy also tend to not buy US military equipment in any quantity.

Buying US equipment limits independent action.

Countries that buy mainly US also tend to align their foreign policies to US foreign policy. Australia is a great example of that (and it does buy non-US but vast majority of gear purchased is US for purposes of operating with US forces).

E.g. Rafale could’ve been as capable as F-22 and as cheap as F-16, but the Australian’s would’ve brought F-35 and Koreans most likely would’ve purchased F-15.

Scooter,
First it’s 10-15 years, next it’s 15-20 years. What next – you’ll be arguing MiG-29 is insufficient to handle whatever is around in 2050!

The Indians are not underestimating their opponents – they’ve acquired Su-30 and are looking at acquiring PAK FA and Rafale as well as long term plans for AMCA which will be carrier capable.

The MiG-29K is more than sufficient for next 10-15 years. In 2025 AMCA comes online (provided everything goes according to plan).

In fact, other than the USN, the Indian Navy will have a massive advantage over any other Indian Ocean player in terms of sea control.

Please note PRC does not have access to Indian Ocean and any Chinese forays into Indian Ocean are styimied by fact they have to go through South East Asian waters.

So, the Mig-29K won’t face any future 5th Generation Fighters in the next 10-15 years???

When’s the last time an Indian jet faced another opponent, except the Atlantique shoot down by a MiG-21 in 1999.

I really don’t see Pakistan fielding any 5th generation jets in 10-15 years. I don’t even see the Chinese fielding them in any great numbers given early stage of J-31 and J-20.

And we still don’t know if J-31 and J-20 are true fifth generation jets or whether they’re 4th generation dressed up as 5th.

Also China doesn’t have naval access to Indian ocean, so Indian Navy’s potential opponents are Pakistan (in 10-15 years still based on F-16 and increasing numbers of JF-17 and maybe some J-10) or a variety of third rate airforces ala Myanmar, Bangladesh etc who will probably have small fleets of MiG-29 and maybe JF-17.

Has nothing to do with India becoming a Client State of the United States. If, that where true I guess the UK, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Israel, etc. etc. etc. must all be puppets of the US then. :rolleyes:

Australia certainly is a US puppet – it’s foreign policy is completely dependent on Americans and has been since Vietnam. Before that Australia was a British puppet.

As for UK, don’t even they refer to themselves as America’s poodle?

And why are Germany and France in your list?

GERMANY: Last US fighter they purchased was F-4F Phantom II in 1970s. Other than Patriot SAMs, nearly all new German hardware is European. The older US stuff (F-4, UH-1 or CH-53) all date from 1960s-1970s.

FRANCE: Last US fighters they brought were F-100 Super Sabre and F-8 Crusader in 1950s-1960s. All current mainstay equipment is French/European.

US equipment is limited to a small fleet of C-130s (main transporter is European C-160), AWACS (3 x E-2C, 4 x E-3F) and air-to-air refuellers (KC-135FR) – most of the tankers were delivered decades ago, the E-3s were delivered in 1980s which leaves a mere 3 E-2C Hawkeye 2000s delivered in recent times.

And all future procurement plans for both operators are based on European designs – Eurofighter,, Rafale, A400M, NH90, Tigre. Same for tanks, artillery, ships etc.

I can understand deterrence but am not sure who they’re meant to be deterring.

Australia’s closest neighbours are Indonesia and PNG. PNG is a military non-entity (2,000 strong defence force with no Navy or Air Force).

Indonesia’s military is poorly equipped, poorly organised, relatively unprofessional and mainly serves a garrison force in the multitude of. Even at it’s peak in the early 1960s it was not a capable force. It is weaker than Singapore or Thailand.

None of the other SE Asian countries have the capability to threaten Australia. Most Pacific states don’t even have militaries comparable to PNG and NZ’s force is a peace keeping force only with no offensive capability.

12 submarines are not going to be deterring China or India who are full fledged nuclear powers and who by the time the 12 new subs come on line (2030-2040) will be able to turn Australia’s cities into glass car parks with the flick of a switch (Chinese can already do it).

Nor will it deter the USA who can already take over Australia with ease.

If Australia wants true deterrence, buy 12 submarines and then fit nuclear missiles to them. Of course that’s not going to happen.

Personally I’d get the destroyers or even an additional squadron of F-35s.

Or maybe more MPAs – the 18-odd P-3s (one was retired recently – http://australianaviation.com.au/2013/05/budget-reveals-raaf-orion-retirement/ ) will be replaced with 8-12 P-8s and 6-8 Global Hawks.

12 submarines is basically a job creation program for South Australia.