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thobbes

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  • in reply to: Military Aviation News-2013 #2275262
    thobbes
    Participant
    thobbes
    Participant

    Thanks for photo MSphere.

    I assume they were delivered after Ogaden War against Somalia (77-78)?

    in reply to: Turkish Air Force – News & Discussion #2275268
    thobbes
    Participant

    Apparently F-5-2000 is being retired with T-38M to take over in LIFT.

    http://forum.scramble.nl/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=95660

    133 Filo to be disbanded first in July 2013 followed by 134 Filo.

    This will reduce the F-5 Freedom Fighter fleet to about 19 F-5BM’s in Spain.

    in reply to: Iraq 1991: Replace USA with USSR #2275288
    thobbes
    Participant

    I think that they will hardly be a proof enough for anyone to change his mind. We, western fans find any claim by a Western pilot supplemented by a nice Tom-Clancy-like story as conslusive enough to attribute a kill but we completely fail to do the same on the enemy’s behalf. In that case we demand AWACS records, confirmation from the opponent’s side, wreckage photos and at best even fragments of some R-xx missile and then we MAYBE could take this possibility into consideration. Do we have the same for all our (or say Iranian or Israeli) kills, as well?

    A typical double standard if you ask me. I personally find claims from ACIG about Iraqi pilots never fully recovering from the fact that they failed to shot down even one aircraft hardly a conclusive proof, either. Just my $0.02

    Personally I expect US and NATO to show decent proof too.

    I think Israel’s records are full of BS, especially loss ratios to all causes. I don’t dount IDF/AF dominates in air combat, but not to the degree it claims.

    thobbes
    Participant

    Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sudan, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Indonesia?, Venezuela, Argentina?, DRC, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Kenya etc….. all potential clients IMHO. Maybe even some eastern europeans who need to replace the MiG21s with a “gripen lite”.

    All true. However fighter sales in many of those countries have completely stopped since end of Cold War and in some cases earlier.

    in reply to: Iraq 1991: Replace USA with USSR #2275305
    thobbes
    Participant

    Bah! several points in this question:

    1- nobody can be sure 100% about the effectiveness of the SEAD tactics, but it is true for the SAM efficency as well.

    2- Soviet did not lack about SEAD systems: on the contrary, while being undeniabily inferior to the best western stuff, they had quite a number of aircrafts and missiles, able to fire with ARM missiles. And not forget, that in 1973 the old AS-5 destroyed two israeli radar stations.

    1973 is not 1991. Assumption is that the Iraqis would’ve used more up-to-date systems and tactics as they did in real 1980-88 war.

    As large number of aircraft and missiles means diddly squat if the missiles are generally incapable of hitting thier targets or are unservicable due to heavy maintenance requirements.

    3- Nobody says that a ‘real’ air war is totally free of pain for the dominant airforce. Remember, soviets were aware about this issue; neverthless, they won Kursk battle while losing much more aicrafts than Germans. But Irakis weren’t germans, and hardly they could have an efficient air defence system after the first waves made up by Su-24s.

    4- remember, even the western systems such Crotale and Roland did not much vs low- flying aircrafts (iranian, UK or US).

    I did state Hawk – which was relatively reliable in comparison.

    5- SAAF air strikes, despite the heavy air defence made up in Angola, were successfuls and effective with minimum losses.

    6- the same happened with many more exercise, like Red Flags, in which stuff like RAF, LW and AMI Tornados ruled out the air defences. There is no particular concern that soviet equivalent would have been worse (atleast, the Su-24 is armoured).

    True. In real life the attacker dictates terms and conditions of where the battle is fought and how it’s fought (though Germans in 1943 were completely predictable in chosing Kursk for their summer offensive).

    Worse losses than the ‘real Desert Storm’? Yes, mainly due to HAWK missiles and some fighters. But, even if soviet would lost 200 aircrafts, they would have won the war neverthless.

    I agree they’d lose. It’s the casualties and length of war that intrigues me.

    Not forget, that soviet would have ruled in long range artillery and rockets, and they would have launched a ground offensive within few weeks, if not days. They weren’t too worried about the losses, nor the myths of the ‘invincible tanks’ (like the M1, that every time one is destroyed, there are everlasting discussions about ‘why’ and ‘what’). They could have loose 500 tanks, and still won the war against ‘irakis’. No matter. They would have fielded around 4,000 tanks with the same costs of the 2000 allied mbts.

    And, in the motherland, they had other 30,000+ MBTs last -gen (T-64/72/80) ready to be sent in action, when necessary.

    Too true. It’s interesting that the Soviets never really got past heavy attrition warfare. Even in 1944-45 when they held the strategic advantage, they continued to throw meat into the grinder.

    And hasn’t changed since.

    thobbes
    Participant

    Did Ethiopia use interceptor versions or just BNs?

    In Ogaden War they were using F-5s.

    thobbes
    Participant

    In contrast, if the Western Civilization looks down at their feet and sees the earth and “Realism”, my civilization, the Islamic Civilization looks up at the stars.

    Yet interestingly enough it’s Westerners who first took to the skies and who first went to space. Realism doesn’t mean lack of vision or dreams.

    in reply to: Iraq 1991: Replace USA with USSR #2275709
    thobbes
    Participant

    With this scenario, one thing that might prevent Soviet air superiority over Iraqi is lack of decent SEAD weapons – apparently Kh-22s used in 1980s against Iran operated poorly. Kh-28 was miniaturised Kh-22. Not sure if Kh-25/Kh58 was any better – limited usage of Kh58 in Georgia had poor results.

    Kh-31 had not entered full service by 1991.

    US on the other hand had F-4G Wild Weasel and EA-6B with very effective HARM as well as EW EF-111 Sparkvarks.

    Assuming Iraq had Western SAMs (Roland, MIM-23 Hawk), life could’ve been made very miserable for Soviet aircrew.

    in reply to: Iraq 1991: Replace USA with USSR #2275715
    thobbes
    Participant

    Just out of curiosity, what kind of proof would satisfy you?

    This is sort of based on hot air if you ask me.. 23mm could easily have been a MiG-23 or MiG-21 (with GSh-23), as well..

    Personally I don’t believe the Iraqi claims either. Fighter pilots tend to overstate their kills by astronomic levels. Third world dictatorships even more so.

    Secondly there are surviving the air crew themselves, if any.

    ACIG did research into the matter and they found no conclusive evidence either.

    http://www.acig.info/CMS/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=47

    If conclusive proof is obtained, then I’m willing to change my mind.

    Til then only kill I believe the IrAF had of Western aircraft was a single F/A-18C shot down by a MiG-25.

    thobbes
    Participant

    Regarding air policing, the MiG-21 or F-5E is kind of ideal – cheap to operate and fast enough to perform an intercept of an civilian aircraft or errant foreign military aircraft.

    Alas both are out of production. Hence next best thing would be an F-16A-10/15 or FC-1.*

    MiG-29M is a MRCA more comparable to F/A-18 and as such more expensive to operate and maintain.

    * In a full fledged war 6-12 MRCA will be nothing as Serbia discovered in 1999 when its 16 MiG-29s stood no chance.

    Serbia definitely won’t be joining NATO in the future. They’re maintaining “armed neutrality” and have been granted official observer status at CSTO, whilst only participating in Partnership for Peace at NATO level.

    I suspect Serbia would sooner join Russian dominated CSTO than NATO though. They view themselves as ethnic and religious relations and NATO did bomb Serbia in 1999 and helped enforce sanctions. NATO states are also supporting Kosovar independence.

    in reply to: Small Air Forces Thread #15 #2275734
    thobbes
    Participant

    What happened to that Tanzanian K-8? Seems rear seat ejected?!?

    Is it being fixed?

    thobbes
    Participant

    I don’t think the export fortunes of JF-17 can be evaluated for at least another decade…

    There are a lot of F-7s, MiG-21s and F-5s that will be expiring in next 10 years. It will be interesting to see if JF-17 wins any orders here – I suspect Bangladesh will be the first customer.

    thobbes
    Participant

    I’d agree they’re overkill.

    Serbia’s neighbours certainly aren’t packing any offensive firepower:

    Hungary – 14 JAS-39C/D
    Romania – 36 MiG-21 – to be replaced by 12 F-16AM/BM
    Bulgaria – 16 MiG-29. Su-25s aren’t serviceable
    Croatia – 10 MiG-21. To be upgraded and retained to 2022-23.
    Bosnia – 0
    Montenegro – 0
    Macedonia – 0

    Even though it would never ever happen, I think JF-17 was sufficient for Serbia’s needs.

    thobbes
    Participant

    Cost effectiveness was in some way not an issue in 1975-1985 period though. Detente went down the toilet in 1980, so one would’ve expected more MiG-23s to be funnelled through to Warpac.

    Warsaw Pact did invest in fighter bombers – e.g. Poland acquired large numbers of Su-22s and Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria acquired MiG-23BN and Su-25.

    However, attack aircraft without appropriate top cover fighter support are pointless. Hence in case of WWIII, Warpac states would’ve had to rely on generosity of USSR to maintain air defence capability.

    In the West something similar happened as well: Viggen vs Draken, Mirage F.1 vs M.III/5/50, A-7 vs A-4, M60 tank vs M-47-48s, Chieftain vs Centurion. All examples about the not perfect cost-effectiveness of those 2nd gen equipments when compared to the older ones. After all, how many A-7 or M.F.1 were upgraded? Even in S. Africa the M.III outlived the F.1.

    In case of SA, Mirage IIIs were already upgraded to Cheetah standard, the Mirage F1s were not. So in this case Cheetah was more advanced than Mirage F1.

    Also South African AF collapsed in the same way Eastern European ones did.

    Lat Swedish AF frontline Viggen was retired in 2005 whilst last Draken was retired in 1999, so they did not retire newer aircraft in favour of older simpler aircraft. The 50 J-35J’s retained to 1999 were all upgraded aircraft.

    In Western Europe, older generation “simpler” jets were discarded and 4th generation retained:

    e.g. Belgium retired Mirage V, kept F-16. RAF retired F-4, kept Tornado ADV, etc etc. France retired the last of it’s III/Vs. Norway retired F-5A/B and kept F-16.

    USAF got rid of A-7, F-4 and not-so-simple F-111 in favour of F-16s.

    Post 1991 the Eastern Europeans retained MiG-21 instead of MiG-23 and in some cases MiG-29. But that was after Cold War and the numbers of MiG-21s kept servicable was pathetically low. I suspect if NATO didn’t require them to be able to police their own airspace, the MiG-21s would’ve been scrapped as well.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,306 through 1,320 (of 2,012 total)