Well, the SOC’s map is quite interesting. It shows some potential to reach the trajectory of the missiles launched from the most west bases (Name ?) and potentially intercept points over the North Sea (the two most south yellow lines). Now, if we consider an attack toward i.e. Florida, the window of interception enlarges a little more. The map also gives ground to the point 4 (The Pole site follows the deployment pattern predicted by Gen. Solovtsov a few years ago and likely will be followed in the next decade by a fourth site in Scotland based on the existing LPAR located here). In the Podvig site there is a pdf from Ted Postol showing this. Anyway, we are now in a sort “nuclear planning discussion”.
Regards.
And Iskander is a scarier neighbor than SS-18s how?
Certainly we will have a lot of fun trying to launch a SS-18 on a 300 km ballistic trajectory. :eek::)
…that makes you look rather silly.
Well, personal attacks are not arguments. Just try to refute his comments.
Respect to the issue of Patriots to protect the Pole ABM site, I knew a Russian article a weeks ago that was quite interesting. The main points were:
1) The Patriot protection to the site will show unambiguously that NATO is interested in its anti-Russian potential; since Patriots will be of no utility against any imaginary Iranian strike (you know the paranoid official explanation is that the site is designed to counter Iranian ICBM).
2) The Patriot shield to the Pole site will increase even more the already heavy burden involved in the deployment of such a system and in no way will guaranty a high level of protection against a well planned coordinated strike from the Kaliningrad exclave.
3) The additional protection to the site given by a relatively dense Patriot net can be offset by a marginal increment in the number of deployed Iskanders. This because the laws of probabilities rule the game and the penetration-features of Iskander is regarded as quite effective by the author.
4) The Pole site follows the deployment pattern predicted by Gen. Solovtsov a few years ago and likely will be followed in the next decade by a fourth site in Scotland based on the existing LPAR located here.
I will search for the article.
If Iran isn’t nuclear capable then America is wasting its dried out money.
Well, Iran has largely demonstrated that is far away from an irrational behaviour. Its exquisite and complex diplomatic movements towards Iraq after the 2003 invasion have allowed itself to establish a quasy-defacto colony here and the executor arm for this politic was… the US army. 😮
Well Sealord, being overoptimistic for the Patriot side, by assigning a PK of 50% against a Iskander missile, you will need 4 Patriot missiles to reach a PK = 0.94 to deal with just one Iskander (And that inflating the Patriot PK). So, the conclusion is the same: 12 Iskander TEL (24 missiles) are more than enough to render the site useless. It may be even labeled as overkill.
No it has not, the Russians will continue whining forever about this, get a grip.
No, I don’t think so. Technically a dozen Iskander are even “overkill” to such a site; and in the end, NATO will have to accept, like it or not, that if they host the ABM site, they will have to live with Iskander as a neighbour. That’s the plain reality. 😎 Later, just let them blabla.
Oh Sealord, in this we also agree: the Russian whining on the Pole ABM site ceased with the announcement of the deployment of Iskander in Kaliningrad. That’s more than enough. Unfortunately, at the same moment, the Pole-Latvian-NATO whining by the Iskanders started. Who understand them?
So we agree here: as the selling of Russian weapons to South America (remember, a continent of free-sovereign countries) is legal, the US whining on the issue should stop. End of off-topic.
Noone gives a rats **** if Russia sells AK’s to Venezuela
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So, be coherent and told cronies like Otto Reich to stop to scream. Russian weapons will continue to flow to Venezuela (remember, a free-sovereign country), like it or not.
Well, if the west have a right to develop a total ABM system if want to in sovereign states like Poland, Russia certainly have the right to deploy as many Iskander as want in Kaliningrad (remember Kaliningrad is Russian soil) and also have the right to sell as many weapons as like to free and sovereign countries like Venezuela. The west should stop whining about this (like it did by just … 100.000 AK :D) and accept that Russia and other countries are free from western coercion. They can’t coerce anymore.
A clear explanation:
The Polish GBI’s are there for the mission they were always declared for. Deterrence of Iranian missile development. What is the point of the Iranians pouring billions into developing their current IRBM capability into multistage ICBM capability if its only going to get defeated by GBI in E.Europe anyway.
Another joke. The Iranians, in case an American aggression will retaliate by raining missiles on Saudi oilfields and refineries and by obstructing Ormuz. This will cause much more damage to the already weakened Western economy than a few MRBM in Warsaw or in Athens (that’s the real Iranian capacity and not the paranoid and unrealistic tale of “Iranian nuclear ICBM”)
Another (more or less known) asymmetrical measures will also unleashed by the Iranians. This will be more rational than the stupid “Iranian actions” that the propagandists of the Pole GBI site argue. They are definitively not fool.