f) IMHO the following is a likely timeline
roll out by 2013
first flight by 2013-14
IOC by 2015-16
In the meantime we might expect another squadron of Mk1 for IAF.
Deino, I don’t think anyone realistically expected LCA to become an export success, given IAF’s yawning gap in fighter numbers and HAL’s annual production rate. but mark my words, it will serve the Indian military in significant numbers. do not forget there are numbers to be produced for the navy as well. 😉
It seems strange to me that a country trying to achieve a sophisticated fast jet capability should ignore the world market. Tejas Mk2 could be a very capable light fighter with a price tag no other aircraft could match for the capability offered. Investing large amounts of money over several decades to produce an aircraft whose performance is acceptable to the IAF and then to limit production to 200 or so for home consumption does not make sense to me.
How many light fighters will be retired over the next couple of decades – 1000? 2000? Is the US developing a moderately priced successor the F16? No. Is there a moderately priced successor to the MiG-21 being developed? Not that I know of. There is the Gripen NG but I would hazard that it could not compete with the Tejas Mk2 costwise.
I imagine that there is quite a learning process in supporting export sales of sophisticated aircraft. I suggest India embarks on that process with the Tejas Mk2. Should the MCA ever come to fruition, it may be that India would be interested in exporting it. Its prospects in the export market would be much better if India had already demonstrated its competence in supporting exports. One reason Russian civil aircraft have not been successful in export markets is because spares support etc has been lousy in comparison to western types.
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