Eric Trapp, President & CEO of Dassault Aviation acknowledges/let’s slip that the Indian Rafale contract is valued at “much more than” [the estimated] US$20bn:

http://www.vedomosti.ru/library/news/17428901/my-ponemnogu-vyzdoravlivaem-erik-trappe-prezident-i?full#cut

Indian rupee has depreciated considerably against $US and Euro since January 2012 (15%-20%) so if the cost was estimated at $US 20bn (100 billion Indian rupees) then more Indian Rupees are required to buy the same number of $US. Rate 01/01/2012: 1 rupee = $US 0.20 ; rate October 2013: 1 rupee = $US 0.163

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

Will the Finance Ministry hold this up still further?

BAE forecast every quarter Saudi contract. it is the longest negotiation.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defence/10371199/US-shutdown-and-Saudi-contract-wrangles-threaten-BAE.html

It’s v-e-r-y long. I wonder what the SAF has done with the aircraft delivered. Have they trained enough pilots to stand up a squadron?

Scooter, the M in MMRCA is for Medium…

True… and the L in LCA is for Light but if a deal cannot be done with Dassault in a reasonable time frame some alternative source of frames needs to be considered unless the serious lack of fighters in the IAF is to become even more serious. I don’t know, making provision for the assembly of another 100-150 Tejas Mk1 / Flankers just seems like a sensible precaution to me. AMCA can’t be the solution to the depleted squadron strength since it won’t materialise before the late 2020’s.

Another approach worth exploring might be to consider buying existing Typhoons that are surplus to the requirements of the partner countries. Should a deal for Rafale prove unworkable, the IAF might be able to get hold of a few squadrons of cheap Typhoons fairly quickly.

India is not a country like Germany, Italy, Spain or the UK where the prospect of their fighters actually being used to defend against attack is almost nil. The IAF really needs more fighters to defend against real threats.

I was under the impression it was a limited upgrade in order to keep them safely flying for a few more years though I could be wrong.

Maintaining existing capabilty for peanuts compared with buying or leasing another type is an extremely attractive option if you have extremely limited funds. By contrast Romania is spending 600 million euros on buying 1 squadron of Portugal’s F-16’s.

India seems to spend a great deal of time talking about how many fighters it is supposed to have… but can’t seem to get around to actually buying enough fighters to fill out their force structure.

Seems to be the case. It appears to me that there are all sorts of impediments to getting things done – inefficient administration, corruption and measures to prevent it, an inability to make decisions and stick to them, unrealistic targets for domestic development, an absence of accountability… the list goes on and on. Until India is prepared to acknowledge its manifold shortcomings and take measures to address them I imagine the pantomime that is procurement will continue and India’s defence capability will continue to be compromised.

That would be one possible approach, but I understand that the Rafale production line can only ramp up to about 22 aircraft per year from the current production rate of 11/year.)

Yes, not a perfect solution by any means and very expensive.

That assumes Tejas can perform at a level that would justify buying it. (of course that is a whole different discussion)

It’s more capable than the MiG-21 so if the MiG’s could be withdrawn earlier it would increase capability. I guess the Tejas would be cheaper to operate, too. Might save quite a few pilots’ lives as well.

IAF Grappling With Free Fall In Fighters, Will Have to Fly Upgraded MiG-21s Till 2025

NEW DELHI — Just ahead of its 81st anniversary on October 8, the IAF has virtually sounded the red-alert over its fast-dwindling number of fighter squadrons. Confronted with the government’s slow decision-making, fund crunches and Hindustan Aeronautics’ sluggish performance, the force is now being forced to further stagger the already long-delayed retirement of its ageing MiG-21s and MiG-27s.

The grim situation can be gauged from the fact that IAF will continue to fly its 110 upgraded MiG-21 “Bisons” — of the total 260 MiG-21s still in its combat fleet — till 2025.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/148513/india-fast-running-out-of-fighters%2C-badly-needs-mmrca.html

Ramp up Tejas production? When will the MkII EIS (seriously, ie not as per the usual ultra-optimistic assessments issued by official and semi-official sources)?

Edit:

Just thinking… With Tejas MkI costing <$40 million, buying 60 more would cost <$2.4 billion (perhaps nearer $2 billion with rupee depreciation). I assume that MkII will be late, thus allowing the use of the line for additional MkI production. Why do I quote amounts in $$$? Because the alternatives are all foreign. How much would 60 extra Rafales cost for delivery during the period in which 60 extra Tejas MkI could be delivered?

Kaveri Engine Project to Be Revived

BANGALORE — Having woken up to the progress made by countries like China in developing indigenous engines for military aircraft late, the Union government has directed the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) to fast-track the ‘Kaveri’ engine project conceived as the power plant for the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA).

DRDO (a) failed to make a useable engine for Tejas without foreign TOT (b) failed to come to terms with SNECMA for TOT. How can DRDO and GTRE now fast track the program?