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Jonesy

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  • in reply to: AEGIS/SM-3 vs. DF-20 #1799145
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Jonesy the great, what a dream turns true, after 5 years debate on this board;)

    Partly the point though isnt it Pinko?. 5 years down the track and this still looks more like US desperation to find a new ‘missile gap’ and build the Chinese up to be the new ‘Evil Empire’ than it does to be a real operational threat!.

    in reply to: AEGIS/SM-3 vs. DF-20 #1799147
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Radar

    The satellite back in 2008 was shot down at an altitude of 240 km. does this proof that they can handle a satellite at 500 km (e.g. sar-lupe) or 700 km (lacrosse) or 1100 km (yaogan 9 series)? i’m not sure.
    afaik the chinese asat-systems are based on a df-21 missile which is significant bigger than sm-3. for the chinese systems engagement altitudes of 600, 800 and 1000+ km (depending on asat type and source).

    Publically quoted altitude limit for the SM-3 is 310 miles or about 500km. How accurate that is I have no idea and wouldn’t expect to find out with any degree of confidence. It does put the interceptor in the ballpark of the orbital altitude that imaging sats use though – I’d not expect that finding an extra hundred km or so in altitude would be necessarily difficult even IF 310 miles was the current hard ceiling!. The Yaogan 9’s are ELINT birds and their higher orbital altitude is of no consequence…again, like OTH, they are cueing assets and not targeting platforms.

    PLA

    And once the USN starts a shooting war in space, you think the Chinese will hold back? The US is far more reliant than China on Space based assets, and China has already demonstrated a viable ASAT capability.

    Irrelevent. Chinese engagement of US satellites is limited to those passing into the engagement window of the Chinese ASAT system. The only crucial systems that the US would need for theatre entry are GPS and comms. Comms is geosync and if China’s ASAT has got up there I’ve not heard of it. GPS you could play merry hell with I imagine, but, that would be about the limit of the impact Chinese ASAT’s could have. The impact of China losing satellites while trying to stop a USN CSG theatre entry is proportionately much greater for obvious reasons. The USN dropping of Chinese satellites therefore could trigger a shooting war in space, but, its one with very much greater rewards than risks for the US side.

    At the end of the day, both the US and Chinese now know that they need to share the use of space in the event of hostilities, or no-one gets to use it.

    This is the point. The US fixed-target list supporting CSG theatre entry is onerous enough on its own. It doesnt really NEED realtime space-based imagery to support its deployment. Nice to have, but, not crucial. That isnt really the case the other way around.

    Besides, satellites are far from the only, or probably the main search and targeting method for finding carriers. The PLA has invested significantly in UACs in recent years, and that focus looks set to only intensify. The PLA already have several long-range, long-endurance UACs that would be well suited to long range volume search

    Absolutely. HALE UAV’s will very definitely be key systems in the ISTAR battle…I’ve said so frequently. Apart from a few prototypes imaged every now and again where are the Chinese examples you speak of PLA?. How many are in squadron service?. Where are they deployed?. What is their range and endurance?. I’m not suggesting China cant field a Globalhawk clone, but, I am saying that there is precious little evidence for you to base your confident predictions on!.

    and these combined with subs and OTH radars and supplemented with satellite support should give the PLA a good foundation to try and locate USN CBGs.

    Thing is though PLA subs, OTH radars and satellites have tried to keep track of carrier battlegroups in the past and been found wanting. Now they need to actually provide target discrimination, identification and MAINTAIN tracking resolution sufficient to target a missile off.

    If there is a single element about the ASBM programme you can bet is most likely to be working as intended, then that is the search and targeting element.

    Quite the opposite pal. The search and targetting element is the absolute hardest part of the whole setup and its very, very rarely been achieved by anyone before. There will have to be a lot more demonstrated than a couple of satellites in orbit, a few pictures of prototype HALE UAV’s and flotilla of aged SSK’s before this becomes believeable as an operational capability.

    in reply to: AEGIS/SM-3 vs. DF-20 #1799153
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Loke,
    The issue is not one of whether China has a platform capable of providing targetting data. Almost any modern warship, modern strikefighter or MPA could do the job.

    The question is whether any of those ISR assets would survive contact with a CSG for long enough to develop the track, discriminate the targets and get that data back.

    in reply to: AEGIS/SM-3 vs. DF-20 #1799189
    Jonesy
    Participant

    OTH radar at theatre entry range doesnt have the resolution to target a missile off…..thats not picking on the Chinese its simple physics. OTH is a cueing asset for a higher resolution platform.

    The message that the SM-3 ASAT shot, very clearly, gave out was of the pointlessness of trying to target USN warships from LEO satellite platforms. Very little need to shoot down the missiles when you can poke out the eyes of the sighting system!.

    in reply to: F-35B – If it get's cancelled #2015457
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Are you suggesting that CVN’s are to be hidden away in anything but a low-threat environment, but the gators will not?

    The amphibs cant hide. They have to be in the other guys littoral in order to put forces ashore. The whole point is that opposing entry-denial forces are attrited to the point that the amphibious assembly area is viable for operations before the amphibs get there. AFTER that point the nature of the action changes and the carrier groups inherent mobility advantage is wasted if it has to be shackled to the beachhead.

    – yet the USMC still considers storming beaches (forcible entry) its raison d’etre – and focuses huge sums of money on the technology (V-22, EFV, F-35B, etc.) to keep that option viable. People both inside the naval services and outside (DoD, Congress, think tanks, etc.) have been debating issues surrounding the Marines and amphibious operations for decades – and it will and should continue. No doubt that the USMC (USN) are experts in amphibious ops, but that doesn’t mean that alternative strategies (and equipment) should not be considered.

    Who else is there that can effect a forced entry if there is no convenient (and viable) land border to jump across?. How else do you put heavy forces in enemy territory if you cant go overland?.

    in reply to: F-35B – If it get's cancelled #2015473
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Scooter I do feel that the plane that the USMC wanted was a modern Harrier, that could land vertically on the new LHAs and possibly deploy to a rough location, as was RAF practice in West Germany. Sadly it would seem to me that the F35B is not that aircraft, it cannot take off with a large load from an LHA, as is demonstrated by the RN requiring a far bigger vessel CVF to achieve the same result, it has problems returning to small vessels with much of a load and is not yet shall one say signed off as structually sound. Yes as someone put it is the closest plane to the requirement of the USMC, trouble is that there is acountry mile between what the USMC as i percieve it want and what the aircraft can do, is this not one of the reasons that the F35B project has just slipped another 2 years? The USMC and its paymasters the Department of the Navy and the DoD I would have thought need to look hard at if it is feasible at all to have F35Bs on LHAs with their present performance envelope.

    Wrong idea about ‘rough location’ think more like Port Stanley airport or Kandahar International. Rough facilities, unable to support conventional types, but with enough infrastructure to get C-130’s etc into.

    CVF wasnt built that big for the F35B. CVF was built that big to be able to support up to a 36 jet airwing and have space for air stores and efficient air operations. You cant really compare CVF to LHA. CVF as it was was a STOVL optimised strike carrier with secondary LPA capacity. The LHA is principally an amphib but with extended aviation support. It being noteworthy that the USMC originally wanted something more akin to CVF, but, were told it was unaffordable.

    Why you have this opinion that F-35B will be hampered operating off an 800ft long LHA flight deck I have no clue?. The Italians believe that it will operate just fine off their Cavour class boat and that has a runway of just 600ft!. The Italian ships ski-jump adds a rough 30% extra in takeoff-run-equivalent, but, thats still on the lean side compared to the LHA’s straight drag.

    The structures issue is fair comment….there is still development to be done….last I heard though it IS still in development….so lets not criticise an incomplete plane for being an incomplete plane shall we?. Once again though the USMC asked for a STOVL F/A-18C, whether you disagree with that requirement or not, the fact is the F-35B comes the closest of anything out there to meeting what the customer asked for.

    in reply to: F-35B – If it get's cancelled #2015488
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Which calls into question current USMC amphibious doctrine. Potential adversaries that the US might face have plenty of coastal artillery (tubes, mobile SSM’s, and possibly ballistic missiles) that will function to keep ships far from the beaches until missiles are expended and defenses attritted – by the CAW/USAF. This is not like in WWII where you could (relatively) safely park multiple CVE’s just offshore and generate sorties to support the assault. Breaking the door down was hard then, and much harder to do now.

    No it doesnt call it into question. It reinforces the idea of the STOVL F-35B in the group – surviveable, flexible striking power based in/near-to the assembly area for hi-readiness/quick reaction. Once the door has been kicked in by the massed striking power of the CAW striking-power needs to be ready to hand to stomp on emergent threats like the C3 nodes supporting shore artillery, mobile SAM’s denying airspace over the FEBA or the coastal missile vehicles mentioned.

    You either do that by tying the whole CAW to the beachhead, limiting it to a radius of a couple of hundred miles from the fixed geographical point…..which is moronic especially when that CAW could be achieving very much more valuable strategic effect elsewhere in support of the beachhead. Or by making the strike jets forward deployable. At this point….now the F-35B is being debugged….that decision is a simple one.

    The same mistake is being repeated by so many here the fundamentals of carrier deployment have to be reiterated. A carriers primary weapon is its inherent operational mobility. It carries its own weapons and logisitcs as a single package and its able to generate combat power then disappear and reappear elsewhere to generate effects on a completely different threat axis. THAT is the power an aircraft carrier brings….strike with impunity….as by the time the enemy has marshalled his resources to even FIND the carrier thats just hit him…..the naval force has shifted again.

    In a strike-from-the-sea scenario asking the carrier to give up its mobility and independence of action, to nursemaid an assembly area, is akin to the Battle of Britain Luftwaffe telling its fighter squadrons to keep close escort on the bombers – Dumb!. You do not want your carrier aircraft spending their days orbitting over the FEBA on armed-recce…its a waste. You want the carrier relocating 400 miles up the coast to interdict opfor comms and logistics – dropping the rail bridge that was carrying an entrained mechanised division that was racing to reinforce the local forces engaging the beachhead, or, hitting the airbases that could be used by hostile strikefighters to target the amphibs in the assembly area.

    a US CVN could have 6 VFA/VMFA squadrons. with 4-6 CVNs,(I believe every Marine division landing should be supported by 2 CVNs), a constant presence can be maintained over the FEBA, and still have fleet air defence. so with CVNs doing this job so well, were does the F-35B fit in.

    COULD HAVE 4-6 CVN’s…..what if it doesnt have all those decks available?. What happens if there are only a couple of deck available and the rest of the operational decks are in the other ocean. The USN carrier fleet has been drawn down from where it was. How many are fully operational in the Atlantic and Pacific right now?. Given time a weighted force can be assembled….what if the strategic situation doesnt give you that time?. USMC aviation doctrine incorporating F-35B/LHA gives options to the on-scene commander to maximise the effects possible from a minimum of assets and its already best-part developed. Simple as that.

    in reply to: F-35B – If it get's cancelled #2015595
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Are the gators expendable? Don’t the gators need to keep a safe distance as well? The fact is that an opposed amphibious assault will be supported by Navy tacair provided by a CVN air group. LHA basing for limited numbers of redundant F-35B’s wastes space needed for transport, attack, and logistical helicopters.

    Nonsense. The amphibious ships, by definition, have to be reasonably close to the landing beachhead. Whether that is within visual range of the coast or just over the horizon is irrelevent. The amphibs have to go inshore.

    The CVN airwing is needed to secure the assembly area and beachhead. Tying a carrier to that beachhead afterwards unnecessarily is dumb!. The RN carrier groups didnt lay just off San Carlos after the landings in 1982. The idea there was to establish a FOB and base fighters close in where they were needed. Not tie down aircraft that could be more valuably employed elsewhere and limit ships mobility and increase their exposue to unnecessary risk.

    F111

    What? This is the point- its not! a LHA will not replace the CVN in real ops-ops that dont need a CVN dont need fighter support(ie F-35B)!

    Are you serious?. Note the use of the term sub-warfighting??. Do you not understand that?. Coercive presence. Operation Deny Flight, Operation Desert Fox – those sorts of sub-warfighting/punitive strike taskings. You gain sub-CVN air deployment capability where you dont absolutely need to be deploying carrier strike groups. TOSS covers AEW where needed and the threat environment hardly dictates a need for support jamming!. SEAD/DEAD F-35B should be perfectly capable of in modest threat environments where you would detail an LHA.

    in reply to: F-35B – If it get's cancelled #2015609
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Phillip,

    The America class were designed for purpose. The deletion of the well deck was to allow the use of that space plus additional spaces through the vessel for air-optimised useage. SRL techniques should not be confused with CATOBAR approaches. You are looking at over-the-deck speeds of 30knts or so. Shorter through decks should present no problem for SRL as you are hardly going to get a bolter at 30knts!.

    Kilo,

    So, by your logic, a handful (not more than 12 per big ship, probably more like 8) of less capable fighters will be able to do what one or two complete CV wings will be unable to do. I see.

    I think you will find that is more your misunderstanding about Marine air, and what it does, than anything else. No-one has suggested Marine air will replace carrier airwings. The point of Marine air is to be there to support the Marines ashore. The job of the carrier airwing is to secure the amphib assembly area in the first place – if the threat environment warrants it. F-35B’s from the MATF could assist the carrier airwing of course, but, principally shooting in the amphibs is a job for the CAW.

    One the assembly area has been secured by the carrier fleet then the Marine forces, including air, go inshore. THAT is where F-35B comes into play. With the threat level attrited and with F-35B covering the assembly area and beachhead FROM the assembly area the CSG is now free to manoever without being fully tied to a geographic location. An opponent attempting to smash a beachhead may try and concentrate forces and present a strategic target-of-opportunity to a CAW able to manoever and exploit.

    Likewise if the scenario is sub-warfighting it could be that attaching an LHA with 18 or so F-35B’s to a couple of LPD’s and an LHD etc provides sufficient combat power to obviate the need for a CVN. How much of a force multiplier is that?.

    in reply to: F-35B – If it get's cancelled #2015635
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Except for the Marines taking over the 400 slot in every carier wing.

    …and from that billet they can dictate terms regarding carrier deployment and redeployment and ensure USMC requirements are serviced as a priority?.

    in reply to: F-35B – If it get's cancelled #2015671
    Jonesy
    Participant

    A) Look up tac-air integration.
    B) No it isn’t, that job falls to the Department of the Navy who has the right prioritize which of its assets receive funding. Take a gander which is higher on its priorities list? Carriers with 4 squadrons or STOVL Marine CAS?

    Ben,

    Its only integrated if its there when its called on. STOVL F-35B, if/when the major kinks get worked out, means there is no need for outside integration and THAT is optimal. One service – one chain of command cant be simpler can it?.

    I have gandered. The America class boats seem to suggest that STOVL is high on the agenda.

    The fact remains that, despite yours and others views on here, Marine Tacair isnt a USN benefit-in-kind. USMC tacair isnt ‘winged artillery’ and isnt the quaint image of open cockpitted Corsairs making strafing runs against Japanese positions.

    The USMC have a requirement for surviveable, flexible, precision strike that is independent of the full-aspect airbases the USAF types demand and the big deck carriers that the USN types demand. The ONLY answer to that, that allows for deployment to their specialised LHA’s, is the F-35B. End of conversation. No rotary-air allows for it, no UAV/UCAV currently allows for it with equal surviveability, no tube or rocket artillery currently available can match the effects and engagement flexibility.

    Simple as that. You can talk at length about how the USMC requirement is flawed, but, to be frank its irrelevent. The simple fact is that the service requirement stands and the ONLY system that comes close to meeting it is F-35B.

    in reply to: F-35B – If it get's cancelled #2015677
    Jonesy
    Participant

    That would be very very bad for the Marine Corps since close to half of their fixed wing budget would have to be slashed to pay for additional Navy F-35s squadrons.

    Cart before the horse there Ben. Its not the USMC’s job to provide airframes for USN CAW’s.

    in reply to: Future of the Admiral Kuzetsov and Naval PAK-FA? #2017197
    Jonesy
    Participant

    does anyone think it would be better to, for example, return to operating vessels like the Kiev? I know they intend to purchase “at least one” Mistral…perhaps instead of MiG-29K’s and upgraded Su-33s the Russians should consider an updated Yak-141 design? A capable V/STOL aircraft paired with a Mistral-type vessel may be cheaper and better

    The problem with that is that a Kiev-type CVS(G) no longer fits with the services operational doctrine. The Kiev’s were intended to support the Soviet/Russian submarine force in the Atlantic basin by engaging NATO ASW surface groups and MarPat aircraft. This is clearly not the strategic goal of the Russian Navy today or in the near-future. The Russian Navy has been tasked for, last I heard, sea control of the extended Russian EEZ and areas of interest. This sort of tasking does not need heavy missile-carrying aviation cruisers any more than it needs big STOBAR aircraft carriers – themselves optimised to support the legacy of Gorshkov’s doctrine.

    India has a similar requirement for a ‘patrol carrier’ and came up with 35k tons, GT propulsion and a modest STOBAR airgroup. Given the same strategic requirement the answer for Russia is, unsuprisingly, similar. They have the MiG-29K for free, so, using that is a no-brainer – if it is uncompetetive in fifteen years it doesnt really matter. There is no way that a Russian carrier force will ever be able to go toe-to-toe with the USN anyway so trying to go from where they are now to multirole supercarriers dominating blue-water is fantasy land and a waste of resource that the Russians just are NOT stupid enough to try for. You build a ship in a few years….you build a capability over a few decades….as the Chinese are well aware.

    It is well within Russian capabilities to design a 35-40k ton hull good for 30knts and adaptable for a CATOBAR or STOBAR layout depedent on clients requirement (hint: one eye on the export market!). Peacetime airgroup of a dozen MiG-29K’s and a dozen choppers incorporating a good sized det of Ka-31’s. Combat surge of, perhaps, 24 MiG-29k and half a dozen radar Kamov’s. A modest design like this is practical for a proper build run of maybe 6 hulls putting 3 each in the Northern and Far Eastern fleets giving continuous deployment potential in both regions and a noteworthy 2 carrier ‘surge’ potential in emergencies.

    As importantly it also allows for the protracted development of multicarrier deployment capability within the Russian Fleet without the large operational costs associated with monster 60k ton carriers!. The Kuznetsov, today, is like the Kirov’s and the Oscars – impressive-looking but operationally useless. If scrapping any of them gave more resource to allow the Russian Navy to get its new, relevent, and very competent-looking escort programmes advanced I’d say do it in a heartbeat.

    in reply to: What a find!!! #2017417
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Still lets look at what is written on the page and discuss the ideas- yes some are in development, some are under design, and I agree some a wildly way out of the fantasy books.

    Just to help dig you out! :-). If we depart from the realities of ‘not cost-effective’ I am quite fond of the concept of the submersible UNREP vessel!. A ‘big’ UUV able to store large volumes of dieso, lubricants and, perhaps, some dry stores dispatched covertly to preposition points globally could go a long way to diminish a fleets short-term reliance on a trackable logistics tail.

    Theoretically you could drive such a UUV with RTG’s with a very modest, high discretion, transit speed for deployment to station. Fitting it with a BMT SSGT-style podded GT fit for UNREP operations at station keeping speed, surfaced, when the fleet commands the vessel, over acoustic modem, to begin an evolution and lift off the bottom.

    The ONLY way you could imagine a justification for this latter-day ‘milch cow’ would be in an environment where you faced a high surface-and-above blue-water threat and you need to maximise discretion of CSG deployment. Other than that good old deceptive manoever and more conventional hulls would seem perfectly able to do the job at somewhat lower cost!.

    in reply to: What a find!!! #2017455
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Oh boy. Not laughed like that in years…..indeed a good find Ja. Pure comedy!.

    Particularly liked this bit where the author quotes:

    Professor of Military Studies and Senior Academic Advisor, Knightsbridge University

    Worth Googling Knightsbridge University quickly for a bit of a giggle.

    LACM’s and, perhaps, VATOL UAV’s or surface launched mini-UAV’s are all feasible concepts for submarines and are either deployed or being researched. Most of the rest of it is simply amusing.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,606 through 1,620 (of 4,319 total)