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Jonesy

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  • in reply to: UK to ditch F-35B for F-35C? #2401456
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Trident,

    No idea what the specs were previously, but the current data on LM’s F-35 page says 450+nm for the B-variant vs. 640+ for the C.

    Ok thats still in the ballpark of what I recalled. The question here is why 640+ nm is so much more valuable than 450+ that it justifies the spend on CATOBAR. The ‘mere’ 450nm, for us, represents a significant step-change in capability all by itself. Looking at the numbers for F-35B may not be that impressive, but, if you consider that it is representative of the carrier launching precision strikes on Paris, firing CASOMs from a position over southern England, with the ship itself sat as far away as the Moray Firth or well over the horizon from Galway Bay in the Atlantic that is a real capability to possess!. Even an airforce as capable as the French may be pressed to stop those attacks, in time, let alone find and target the carrier. An airforce without airborne early warning would stand a fraction of the chance!.

    I recognise the underlying logic behind this, but the fact that the F-35C maintains a substantial range advantage despite these considerations shows that it doesn’t actually work that way – the same will be true for endurance. Why would a requirement for higher fuel reserves only eat into loiter time but not range? Both airframes are as near as makes no difference the same weight but the CV version carries almost 50% more fuel – it’s not hard to see how that will allow for larger recovery reserves and still provide a handsome margin over the F-35B.

    The question is in how the range figures are calculated. If they are honest direct comparisons with identical payloads, and with identical reserves, then the STOVL characteristics will see a need to revise the figures for F-35B up. Not a huge degree of course and, of course, your are right F-35C has a far better fuel figures. My point was that the numbers listed may not tell the whole story, that the range/endurance on offer from STOVL may be quite acceptable already and -35C’s figures, while good numbers, may not practically be worth the expense.

    This actually makes my point, helicopters of any kind are considerably more maintenance intensive than a typical fixed-wing jet. Again, given what you rightly point out I have no doubt the F-35B will eventually work with an acceptable support burden, but I’m equally certain that it will remain more costly to operate than its cousins.

    Granted the F-35B would require more maintenance than another single-engined jet type. Against that though a STOVL airframe does not have a cat/trap cycle life. The airframe could, conceivably, last far longer than a busy CATOBAR types would. Also the STOVL carrier is far cheaper to operate than a CATOBAR one. Less crew (to pay, house and pension off!), less spares holding, less maintenance overhead etc. I dont think the operations costs are going to come down in CATOBAR’s favour…..not by a good margin.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F-35B for F-35C? #2401570
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Trident

    A split buy of early F-35B deliveries, to be followed later by F-35Cs would appear to offer most of the benefits without the drawbacks. Commit to buy a smallish number of STOVL airframes now and complete the first carrier unmodified, operate both until the second carrier (to be fitted with EMALS and E-2Ds) and CV F-35s come online. At that point, put the first ship through refit into catapult configuration and turn the F-35Bs over to the RAF, who can still reinforce the air group (STOVL aircraft can after all operate just fine from conventional carriers). Would that push the spending commitments for the redesign etc. out far enough?

    That approach offers the most flexibility with the minimum up-front costs. It also allows for the operational service evaluation of F-35B STOVL in UK service and for the capability to be shaped by the developing global threat environment and the, theoretically, improving national financial stance.

    The advantage is almost 200 miles (more than 40%) according to LM and carrying StormShadow or external fuel will compromise RCS somewhat.Also, as I have mentioned a few times already, longer maximum radius means longer loiter at short ranges.

    The last figures I saw released were a predicted combat radius of roughly 550nm for F-35C and 400nm for F-35B have these now been officially revised?. As I have mentioned a few times F-35B can offset 35C’s loiter advantage with its lower fuel reserve requirement back over the carrier. F-35B cannot conceivably bolter, so, the need to maintain recovery reserves for go-rounds, as an arrested recovery type is obliged to maintain, is simply not needed – thats fuel that is mission useable. Stormshadow carriage RCS increase is only marginally an issue because the aircraft doesnt need to travel the last few hundred km’s with the missile!. The external tank option would, presumably, see the tank fuel used first and the airframe being ‘cleaned up’ prior to target ingress.

    I find it rather baffling that the RN considers its ISTAR capabilities insufficient for long range strikes while simultaneously insisting that those same assets are capable of supporting a sortie rate which mandates a 65000 ton ship.

    Why?. The kind of ISTAR you need to support near-realtime targetting 600-700nm, beyond practical support from the carrier group, deep is expensive. You are looking at imaging satellite’s and, possibly, LO HALE UAV’s. Nothing that might be considered organic to the carrier group. If we see the development of Mantis-style UAV’s in the naval environment we will see plenty of capability at shorter depths, as governed by LOS/OTH Comms relay, from those kinds of persistent platforms. In short ISTAR over the tactical battlespace and its approaches is a genuine feasibility. Strategic-ISTAR we wont be able to afford for a while. Again, if we are shooting at fixed targets, why are we sending a manned fighter when we have perfectly adequate TLAM?.

    and then there is the sticky issue of AEW – wouldn’t Hawkeyes launched from catapults alleviate the ISTAR concerns?

    No. You wont have enough E-2’s embarked to risk them anywhere near an exposed position. Hawkeye is good for air/surface surveillance and air battle management. Great, I’d actually say near indispensible, for blue-water sea control. Not much use for targetting ashore though. Which is the raison d’etre for CVF and UK carrier Strike. We need something different for ISTAR off CVF.

    No, but it takes the basically well-known concept of power transmission by shaft beyond the familiar envelope in lightweight applications (clutches and gearboxes with similar ratings are exceedingly rare in the aerospace world).

    Hardly unknown though. Mi-26 dumps 22000shp through its gearbox, CH-53E pushes over 12000shp through its. This is a new slant on well understood basic technology and it has been testing for a decade now. I dont think I’ve read anything yet of a -35B pilot reporting a horrible grinding sound just before the whole fan unit jumped out of the airframe!.

    I think you implied EMALS was more risky not long ago and that is indeed a very pertinent example, but not in the way you intended. Actually, the issue in both cases is the same – the fundamental principle (turbo-shaft powertrains and linear electric motors, respectively) is well understood, but both projects face the challenge of scaling it up to unprecedented levels.

    I’d disagree with the idea that linear motors are well understood in context though. As stated people have put powerful turboshafts in aircraft and pumped the power through transfer boxes before. No-one has ever put a linear motor of the EMALS magnitude aboard a ship before. I dont doubt that EMALS will result in a catapult of sufficient throw-weight. I do have serious doubts as to the impact of an EMALS launch impulse on the multitudes of unshielded ‘non-critical’ ships systems. I have doubts as to the ability of the team to manage the external ‘broadcast’ EM spike and I am a little concerned about EMP effects on the aircraft on the catapult and on its weapons and systems.

    Right now EMALS is not an option for the RN. Until its at sea and working reliably the only choice we have, for cats, are steam and C13’s which nobody wants.

    The F-35B will work eventually, but there may well be some unanticipated problems that cause delays and cost overruns along the way, it is also very likely to be somewhat more expensive to operate than the other versions.

    The extra operating costs of STOVL support being more than offset by the cheaper costs of operating the carriers.

    What kind of opponent requires VLO stealth to penetrate his defences and high sortie rates but lacks any blue water capabilities whatsoever?

    All those countries that rely on the ‘terror’ of imperious double-digit style SAMs to cover their territory while scarcely being able to field a competent frigate flotilla or a Maritime Patrol force worthy of the name!. Think Op Allied Force!. Much easier to dot a few S-300 batteries about than build up a sea control force capable of continuous coverage 200nm offshore.

    The Carrier Strike concept appears to result in a carrier which is expensive overkill for Afghanistan-type scenarios, yet ill-suited to high-intensity conflicts. Bizarrely, it seems to be sized for the latter but mostly equipped for the former which is what probably confuses most people (me included).

    You may be forgetting how the Afghanistan operation started. Almost all the tacair over theatre was carrier-based. It is perfectly suited for Afghanistan style air campaigns. It is perfectly suited for a latter-day Falklands style operation. With half the airgroup landed and an enhanced EMF plus Commando Helicopter Force transport and attack chopper elements aboard its perfectly suited for Seirra Leone type ops with only a T23 and an RFA for company. Its perfectly suited for Op Allied Force style operations. In short its a ‘cheap’ carrier that will do everything required of a carrier, and more, apart from the Red Storm Rising scenario against the massed Backfire Regiments and the mighty Red Banner Fleet. If someone can tell me why, genuinely, that is a problem I’d love to hear it!.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F-35B for F-35C? #2401698
    Jonesy
    Participant

    You need to go and read what the Royal Navy has actually publicly said about the Queen Elizabeth Class Aircraft Carriers for over ten years now.

    I know what the RN has been saying publically. I know what certain sections of the mob have been saying privately and I know what the BAE lads in Filton told me they were building.

    If you think that’s a Fleet Carrier you dont understand the term and you dont understand the Carrier Strike requirement. Either way that’s your issue.

    The RN has always insisted that the main driver was the ablity to do Carrier`Strike and serious CAS with an airgroup of up to 36 Fast Jets.

    Correct and it has been designed with assault routes from reconfigurable austere accommodation for an significant embarked EMF. You see we’ve learned that you dont need 36 fighters embarked all the time. If half of them can be as productively deployed ashore it means you can do other things with your big grey boat. STOVL is the enabler for that as the airgroup can be flexibly deployed as the situation requires.

    The sums I have seen look like one could put in EMALS in the first carrier for the cost of, at most, 3-4 STOVL F35 B and one can then buy much more capable F35C, at some $25 million US each less.

    So, let me get this straight, you think we should slow the build, incurring cost, while new build blueprints for steam cats are drawn up incurring further cost (remember EMALS is still a lab test right now) then conjure up the design for an auxiliary steam plant and, in the middle of swingeing cuts, pay for all this new kit and design work. Just to get catobar on a carrier that has no requirement for it?.

    Seriously?. This is to get a saving of $25mn per aircraft that no-one has proven exists and the manufacturer expressly refutes?.

    The QE’s. I repeat, have always been designed so catapults -either conventional Steam, with auxilery steam generating plant, or EMALS, could be fitted. A lot of fairly detailed design work has actually already been done for this and the British Government went to some trouble a few years ago to make sure that US Emals technology was available to UK.

    EMALS isn’t currently available to anyone. Its a testbed with a chequered history that will not be tested in its shipboard environment for another 4 years. Detailed design work for CATOBAR CVF stopped in 2002 with the STOVL downselect. The French developed PA2 from CVF but, once again, we aren’t building that design. No amount of repeating yourself will change that.

    And from what I hear STOVL F35 B would in any case require a rolling landing to have any worthwhile weapon bring back capability, which means some sort of arrestor or barrier system, even for that, more expensive and less capable FJ.

    Now go and listen to people who know what the SRL profile is. Then come back and i’ll tell you the difference between what is called an arrested recovery and an SRL if you like.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F-35B for F-35C? #2401976
    Jonesy
    Participant

    The reason I asked about Gripen is that it has a STOL capability.You suggested that the only aircraft that could have operated at an austere or restricted forward base is the Harrier, and presumably in future the F-35, because the runway length to launch conventional fighters wasn’t available. I was wondering if the Gripen could also have operated under those conditions.

    Again Flanker the question is one of relevence. Gripen possibly could operate from the unprepared strip that we found in Kandahar. Sea Gripen likely could be anticipated to be able to fly off a CVF-length deck. Thing is that, at the time, we had neither Gripen or CVF we had GR9 and CVS so STOVL allowed us to deploy a capability were we wouldnt have been able to otherwise….not for the first time.

    The other question is whether the proposed Sea Gripen could operate off the CVFs, and if this alternative would be cheaper than the F-35B/C or F/A-18E/F options.

    Would Sea Gripen, in place of F-35 or Super Hornet, allow us to carry forward the kind of expeditionary capability we’ve employed while still providing aircraft for the carrier airwing. Probably yes it would…if it existed. It doesnt though – which is a problem.

    Thing is that STOBAR, with an already short-legged aircraft, is foolish as it demands a number of buddy-stored aircraft to keep a strike package topped off while it launches. Even if that weren’t the case the thing is that, like the idea of LCA(N) being a solution, these latter-day Skyhawks are unnecessary. The only reason we will need another solution is if STOVL folds and, even then, we have the ‘luxury’ of rolling on with GR9 and STOVL QE while we evaluate options for PoW and the future shape of the capability.

    By the latter half of the decade funding a Sea Gripen, near from scratch, for a roughly 30yr old airframe design may not look to offer so much promise if we want 20yrs out of whatever we go to. Rafale and Hornet would be similar in terms of development life and residual capabilities but would, at least, offer proven and mature operational credentials. By the late 20-teens we should be through the worst part of the current financial turmoil and, so, our options should be broader than they are today. I cant see how either of the naval light-fighters would offer anything we really want by that time?.

    The response speed of a Super Tuc or an AT-6B would be similar to that of an A-10, which is said to be the most popular and successful CAS aircraft operating in Afghanistan.

    So you are agreed the word ‘slow’ applies then?.

    The ‘sensor dwell’ of these turboprops – six hours endurance – would seem more than adequate, and while they can carry less ordnance than a fast jet, the trend in Afghanistan has been towards smaller, precision weapons, rather than big bang bombs, so is that a problem?

    Are you saying that an AT-6 can carry a Sniper pod, worthwhile ordnance load AND still put in 6hrs in the air?. I would be quite suprised by that if true!.

    As for vulnerability to ground fire, presumably they could operate in similar fashion to the A-10s and/or AH-64s, standing off beyond DshK range?

    They cant operate similar to either as they aren’t as tough as the Warthog and cant fly through trashfire to locate their targets and if they stop to observe terrain/sites, as an AH64 would, they’ll have certain issues with several well established laws of physics!.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F-35B for F-35C? #2402111
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Distiller

    Right now CVF is on the path to become a glorified LPH, “fundamental misunderstanding” ((c) Jonesy) or not. You cannot better a chain of questionable decisions by yet another questionable decision.

    CVF was designed from the outset to have functionality as an LPH so, yes, it very much is on the path. Again CVF is NOT a fleet carrier and isnt intended to be without substantial modification. PA2 was the Fleet Carrier that would come out of the CVF design….if you can classify a 25knt carrier as a Fleet Carrier?.

    What is questionable about a large cheap carrier that fits the UK requirement?. Its questionable only by those who dont understand the UK requirement and kneejerk a decision that the CVF is something it isnt just because of its size.

    Flanker,

    1. Could a Saab Gripen have operated from Kandahar under those circumstances?

    Who knows?. Why is that of any consequence?. We didnt have the option of deploying Gripen any more than we had any other STOL capable, non-STOVL, type. As stated any other STOL type out there could not operate from our CVS’s so why would they have been a better option for the UK?.

    2. Could armed tuboprops such as the Super Tucano or AT-6B have operated from there?

    I’d guess almost definitely so. They would not have been able to provide the same response speed, sensor dwell or firepower that GR9 did and would have been massively more vulnerable to the trashfire envelope. If you want slow-mover light-CAS do it with Reaper and get the sensor persistence to catch the baddies laying the IED’s!.

    3. If the RN is planning to use ‘rolling’ carrier landings with the F-35B, then that’s STOL rather than STOVL, so has STOVL already been dumped?

    SRL can be used when bringback weights require it. VL can be used when bringback isnt an issue or when weather conditions might make SRL unduly risky. One doesnt preclude the other!.

    4. I think I’ve asked this before, but if the sortie rate is THE critical factor that determines the need for CVF, where does this particular figure come from? And why is it impossible to change?

    Carrier Strike wasn’t cooked up because we thought it might be nice to have aircraft carriers to keep up with the Yanks and the French you know Flanker!. Carrier Strike is the result of years of operational data as to how to generate effects on target from a position where we have no local base-in. The MoD studied strategic-range airpower, CASOMs, LACM from surface and sub-surface naval platforms and the whole run of naval tacair. The result of that huge study was a sortie-rate definition that would produce the effects, on a representative target list, that were deemed necessary to ‘shoot-in’ and reduce a likely opponents capabilities to present coordinated opposition to our forces ashore.

    NOT the sort of thing you just arbitrarily divide by two so you can try and get a gaggle of smaller ships to try and do.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F-35B for F-35C? #2402211
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Flying STOVL aircraft from conventional bases, like during the first Iraq war or in Afghanistan, is not STOVL ops.

    Nope. We couldnt operate Jaguar GR3 or Tornado GR4 from Kandahar and we had a requirement for fast jet CAS in support of deployed forces. By any token STOVL was an enabler for capability deployment where none would have existed, with UK forces, otherwise. Could we have bought A-10’s or another short-field capable type and used them from an ‘unprepared’ strip instead of Harrier?. Yes – but we dont get the sea-basing option we do with Harrier. So its a stupid option. STOVL is proven for expeditionary ops and as a land/sea base force multiplier.

    Saying its not pure ‘STOVL ops’ does nothing to reduce the usefulness of STOVL.

    That’s what helicopters are for, and what developments like the Sikorsky X2 will make even more performant in the future.

    Apples and Oranges. A helicopter isnt doing the high-end taskings that a STOVL-F18C equivalent is doing. You cannot replace the single STOVL jet without buying the Sikorsky AND a high-end platform.

    But building a large carrier for STOVL ops is simply pointless. And if COSTS are the main driver for going STOVL I can only refer to another of my posts on that topic: http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showpost.php?p=1638265&postcount=752

    Fundamental misunderstanding of CVF there. We are building a large carrier to support the sortie rate…..not the STOVL jet. If we want the sortie rate we have determined necessary we have to build the carrier large as a smaller ship, whilst capable of operating the jet, will NOT do the job required.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F-35B for F-35C? #2402222
    Jonesy
    Participant

    To argue for STOVL F35 B on the basis of one deployment in Afghanistan -the only such deployment in very many years- is rather weak.

    Is it?. STOVL was a key enabler in allowing the deployment of tacair in a representative low intensity conflict. STOVL also allowed forward basing of USMC AV-8B’s in Desert Storm and allowed for the presence of not only RN but RAF airpower, where none would have otherwise existed, in the Falklands. Thats a major contribution in three of the largest military contests in the last thirty years. STOVL has proven itself a significant force multiplier.

    STOVL F35 B is behind in testing by two years, and it is about to be ‘rephased’ (ie, put back) yet again.

    It is unheard of for a fighter to be behind in testing?. The only acknowledged problems currently are simple component specification issues.

    STOVL F35 B has much less range, can only carry a much reduced weapons load (half in stealth mode)

    Irrelevent. F35B is what the the USMC originally asked for – a STOVL F-18C. With the ‘5th Gen’ features built in the aircraft has everything necessary to introduce a step-change in UK naval tactical airpower. The range differential on strike radius isn’t ‘half’ by the way. Its 150 miles and we get that back carrying CASOM or external tanks. We dont NEED any more range than that because we dont have the ISTAR capability to target non-fixed sites at that range and, if the target is fixed, we can hit it with TLAM or CASOM anyway.

    and features a reduced internal fire fighting system that, according to senior US Officers, makes it vulnerable to the very common 30mm AAA weapons.

    F-35B isnt an A-10. In Op Allied Force the RoE’s were for a min alt above the ‘trashfire’ envelope anyway. F-35B doesnt need to be as exposed to light AAA anyway as it has the sensor capability to deliver effects without getting down and dirty.

    In addition the very complex lift fan (which is mere dead weight for most of the time the aircraft is operating) could well turn out to be a nightmare to maintain.

    Anything to back that up with?. At all?. Its a fan…driven by a clutched shaft. Its scarcely technology indistinguishable from magic is it?.

    in reply to: UK Defence Review Part II #2402574
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Sounds like this is the second phase of the Army’s inter-service strike campaign. First was Dannat with his absurdities and now we see a more ‘moderated and reasonable’ press leak that sees the army keep most of its capability. That based on the back of an Afghan campaign that the other services have already noted has a finite timeline.

    Dont think this one quite rings true.

    The RN could certainly offer up the remaining 42’s for 5 hulls, but, for the next few years the T22B3’s (presumably the other 4 in our noble sacrifice) will be needed for their C3 facilities not to mention a few less well-publicised tasks they are well outfitted for.

    Dropping even the 42’s wouldn’t come without a price either – losing 5 hulls would likely see one of our permanent taskings dropped. Seeings we cant drop APT(N) or (S) it would likely have to be a NATO slot or the IO tasking. Thats going to cause some ripples with the less well-off nations asking why we are shirking our duty!.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F-35B for F-35C? #2402679
    Jonesy
    Participant

    +1 Swerve.

    Brace yourself for posts about overblown reliability issues and unimportant payload range figures.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F-35B for F-35C? #2402692
    Jonesy
    Participant

    The question then geogen is, if F35 is going to try to bypass tough SAM defences, same as Hornet would have to, as opposed to engaging them isn’t that advantage F35 regardless?.

    Hornet, in your concept, is significantly more restricted in its flight envelope in non permissive air simply owing to its higher signature.

    Also who said we would pay for Meteor integration with super hornet?. As was pointed out on the last thread the Aussies are taking -9X over their ASRAAM’s to avoid integration costs!.

    Your Hornet configuration there is VERY notional!

    in reply to: LGB vs Aircraft Carrier #2026845
    Jonesy
    Participant

    If you have managed to locate, classify and hold contact with a target naval group, without counter-detection, why would you tip off the opposition as to how you did it?.

    Like dj says use the asset to cue in shooters. If you dont let the opposition see how you did it then you can use it again tomorrow – against a now confused and worried enemy!

    in reply to: UK to ditch F35B for Super Hornet? #2403237
    Jonesy
    Participant

    We are. The question is whether it is worth challenging ignorance or not.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F35B for Super Hornet? #2403284
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Here is a bet for you: F35B will be the last time all that effort is wasted on a expensive STOVL warplane.

    Super Hornet would be the best aircraft for the RN Carriers on cost grounds.

    F35C would be best aircraft otherwise.

    F35B is a huge waste of money -and less capable- but the RAF like it.

    Interestingly the only British weapons F35B will carry – not that it can carry very much of anything – are 500lb Pavways, UK dropped everything else because of expense.

    Do you know the difference between an aircraft and a capability?

    You do understand that a technically superior aircraft can offer less capability if it is particularly challenging to deploy?.

    The whole capability deliverable, against the cost of delivering it, is the core of the issue.
    Stovl does more with fewer, marginally more expensive, airframes and considerably cheaper ships!

    As Geoff said earlier STOVL has been selected as prefered option in open competition. Short of a fail in the technology, which isn’t apparent at this time, its difficult to see why another review would come to a different finding?

    in reply to: Why are the brits wasting money on sea viper? #1801634
    Jonesy
    Participant

    Simple answer is that we needed more capability than AEGIS/SPY-1/SM2 offered when the competition was run.

    The SPY-1x/SPG combination is vastly inferior, in ship-to-ship terms, than UKPAAMS. The BAE Sampson array is seeing further over the horizon and the active missile has no fire-channel constraints.

    To the USN this is no issue as they have the simple expedient of just deploying more and more AEGIS ships until the threat is met – also they can rely, pretty much, on the presence of a friendly E-2D and CEC. The RN cannot rely on such luxuries being present so the need is for the shipboard system to be making up some of the shortfall.

    Had the offer, at the time, been equal participation in SPY-3 and an offer of SM-6 then, perhaps, the decision may have been different, but, that is the level of capabilty we required and that is what we have with Sea Viper.

    in reply to: UK to ditch F35B for Super Hornet? #2403570
    Jonesy
    Participant

    F-35B’s will require more support than a “forward staging area” can provide.

    What s the basis for this statement?. RAF are flying Tornado GR4 out of Kandahar as a forward operating base and was flying Harrier GR9, hardly a low-maintenance type, from that base even in its most austere condition. Provided there is a hard strip and enough open land for a LAPES drag why would an F-35B present any special challenge in forward ops?

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