The EU will still trade with the UK. And vice versa.
After all, there will still be money to be made.

Europe traded with the UK when France blocked entry into the Common Market, and to give another example, the Soviets traded with the dreaded capitalists…

In short, money talks.

Whether it will or wont is mostly irrelevant. The fact is that the EU doesn’t HAVE to trade with an independent UK. We will need them far more than they need a competitor nation just off their coast.

John says BMW will still want to sell us their cars. What happens if the EU decide they’d like to see car manufacturing shift from UK to their member states?. What does the UK do if the EU decide to levy tariffs on every car built in the UK for export into Europe?. What happens if Honda, Nissan etc are approached by the EU with an offer of subsidies and a 450mn consumer market to relocate?.

What counter measure do the UK take to balance that?. Do we tell Honda we can sell cars built in Swindon to Africa?. Maybe they’ll see the potential for us to enter the South American market?. Sound a bit implausible…does to me too!.

We may well be able to maintain a trading relationship of some sort with our former partners. We will not get the same access that we have currently though that much is certain. We will need to agree which rules we want to keep to and which we wont…we will need to agree a level of access to policy briefings and planning sessions…we will need to negotiate the size of fee we must pay to enter the EU market. These are all the most basic of points that will spin off dozens of sub paragraphs.

Bottom line is that, if we dont work out new markets for the 50% of trade that currently goes to the EU according to, officially audited, HMRC figures we will be in a very deep mess. The EU will have it in their power to hurt us to a very deep degree….they will take some pain themselves, but, they will be able to ride it out far better than we will. Far from ensuring political sovereignty we’ll be dropping our pants, in an exit, and hoping we dont get treated too roughly by our former partners and new competitors.

Erm John….

He was saying the same thing I have all along. No one wants it. Very few ever believed in it….pushing further towards integration that no-one wants will break the whole thing apart. We need the trading part. We need the regulatory, standardisation and policy component that supports that. All sensible people accept that. Any further and people start to push back. This is what the EU actually is for most of Europe….when you recognise that maybe you’ll understand why being fearful of something that will never happen is just a little bit dense!.

I’ll answer very honestly. It is the covert intention that counts, not, at the moment, the reality

So the reality doesnt count?. Its entirely appropriate and your honest, stated, position that mature adults should make important economic decisions, affecting the livelihoods of millions, based on the fear of something that you accept doesnt exist and, most likely, never will.

Think about what you are actually saying man. This isnt fantasy football….this isnt some academic imponderable enabling you to vent your capcious spleen over those you clearly consider untermenchen (as if that isnt ironic in itself).

You are saying that you believe that we should seperate ourselves from a trading entity of half a billion consumers to offer China, the US, India and all the rest a market of 65 million and the reason you want to do that is because you are terrified of the machinations of some faceless beauracrats who, in two decades, have achieved nothing in terms of superstate creation beyond a shiny building or two and an EU flag in the G7….and that sat next to half the meeting members who are in the bloody EU!.

Oh and there may soon be an EU Army…..which is new apparently despite the fact that European nations have been teaming up forces multinationally for best part of the last 4 decades!.

Have a think yeah????

Well, if he was he would have negotiated far tougher terms than he eventually settled for a few months ago having reneged on previously promised red lines. And it would be encouraging to hear him responding to the astonishing, but unsurprising, arrogance of the recent comments by Juncker and his henchman.

Jonesey – perhaps you can answer this question. How is it that the EU and its flag are represented at the G7 talks when it is not ” one of the wealthiest developed countries”. It is not a country neither is its flag a national flag. Yet more empire building, about which we have spoken before…..a propos we are lead to understand that the announcement of latest plans for the European Army are being kept under wraps until after the Referendum. Now, I wonder why……

Reading that I am put it mind of that fantastic Billy Connoly sketch:

‘We want this! And that! We demand a share in that, and most of that, some of this, and f**king all of that! Less of that, and more of this, and f**king plenty of this! And another thing, we want it now! I want it yesterday, I want f**king more tomorrow, and the demands will all be changed then so f**king stay awake!’

Did, at any point, I say that I thought Cameron was a good negotiator?. Particularly with the amount of media time that Leave are getting I assumed that we’d have a much better lever than we have had to get more concessions out of the EU. The only thing I can think of is the lack of credibility and substantive message from Leave has convinced the EU that we’re really not likely to be leaving after all.

We’ve seen nearly every negative racial stereotype and slur from the Leave side of this debate that there is…..from cracks about Italians swapping sides to images from the Fuhrerbunker!. As I’ve said previously the only thing that seems missing is a trot out of the old ‘cheese eating surrender monkeys’ epithet for our French chums!. To be honest a very vocal percentage of the UK population has shown itself to be very much lacking in common decency at best and malicious at worst. If some in Europe have chosen to take offence at this I cant say I’m very surprised.

Why is there an EU flag in the G7?. Possibly as it includes France, Germany and the UK amongst its number….arguably the three most powerful members of the EU. How is it not efficient for those three states to proxy for the larger trading bloc in the context of G7 negotiations?. Would it be more suitable to have separate negotiations for G7/EU interaction despite the fact that the key nations are already in the room?. Do love the fact that you nail the EU for inefficiency and, when they do do something joined-up, thats an indicator of the creeping federalism that, still, no-one wants!.

John,

Quite so – you believe that investment will continue. I am concerned that it might not.

…and that is the concern. How much of the investment John notes is contingent on our presence in the EU and our position as gateway into it. John Redwood was on Radio4 this morning stating how various car manufacturers had 5yr investment plans in the UK and wouldnt go anywhere in that time even if we left….credit to him he did come clean and said all would like us to remain in Europe. He said nothing about the period after those plans expired though.

We have received a lot of inward investment precisely because we are viewed internationally as a solid, open place to set up that allows a foot to be dipped in Europe without having to get too entangled in the rules and regulations. My company was originally bought out by a foreign multinational for exactly the reason that they wanted a toehold in Europe and, when expanded, was bought by another wishing to exploit and develop that further. Take away our status in Europe and that investment will go elsewhere.

As the song goes Baz….its all about the money!. Naff all fun being the most powerful and morally superior pauper stood in line for a hand out.

I’d stand by ‘mythical vision of horror’ Charlie. I want to see a European superstate about as much as you do. Difference is that I know there are massive numbers of European citizens who feel the same as me….us. I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the chance of a common European foreign policy, defence policy, economic policy etc is as likely as seeing the second coming. Those who want it…want it to gain power as they have none presently. They represent nothing and have no support….unless you are willing to believe in the tinfoil hat illuminati conspiracy theories. You dont strike me as that kind of idiot charlie.

The wrench on the other hand is very, very real. I genuinely have seen no professional economic commentry that says our economy doesnt contract under exit terms. We make ourselves smaller and less significant by the action. Partners suddenly become competitors and our new competition has a huge market to sell to….while we dont….without negotiating access.

Lots has been made about the French and the Germans still wanting to sell to us and buy from us. Difference is they’ll have other nations in their marketplace to sell to IF they choose not to trade with us…..where do we go though?. Do we want to try and sell food to the US?. Do we want to try and sell cars to Japan?. Maybe we try to sell high tech kit to South Korea?. See the point?.

Access to the common market is vital to UK interests…all we know for sure is that if we step out of the wider EU then we will have to come to some accomodation with the 20-odd remaining states to get access to the common market again and it will cost us to do so. It has to cost us to do so, and cost a bit, or the other 20-odd states will ask why they are paying in for membership when you can get the all the trade benefits on the outside?.

Is it the same ‘they’ John or are all those you disagree with just ‘they’?.

Mark Carney has no need to dance to the Govts tune. His view is shared by every other serious economic forecaster as well…..are they all bending the knee to Whitehall John?.

Maybe you need to get about farther than just France?.