JonesyAs was said before, 40k+ tons is not light. But it is too small to run an airwing that justifies all the expenses of a carrier; make it a 55k tons two-cat and we’re in business with supersonic multirole jets and realistic AEW and ASW capability.
Not sure if I absolutely agree with that. CdeG as a design comes in for its fair share of abuse, with some justification, but she has just put in a decent shift in the southern Med and had hangar space and room in the flying program had she needed to ramp up to higher intensity operations. 40k with a couple of 12-14 plane squadrons covers fleet air defence and offensive ops simultaneously. 55k does it with greater sustainability and greater ease of operation but at a noticeably higher cost. ASW you do offboard from accompanying SSN’s, theatre sensor platforms, and, decentralised, capability off suitably netted escorts with decent aviation complexes.
The real light carrier is a ISR UAV platform, something based on a fast commercial hull like the 8000 TEU carriers that Samsung is building for Evergreen, with a flight deck with a ski-jump on top and some containerized maintenance complex below. 300 meter long, no need for fancy cats or wires, and for missiles ask Almaz-Antey for a couple of Klubs. A CVA(aux) for the price of a better OPV.
Commercial hulls and significant air ops dont go together. DC just isnt there to stop an accident or, worst case, battle damage from gutting the hull – see Atlantic Conveyor 1982 for any proof necessary.
JonesyIn answer to the original question if we, perhaps, phrase it slightly differently the answer becomes quite clear. Changed to ‘is there a market for a 35-40k ton CATOBAR carrier’ the answer is very much yes.
Brazil and Argentina are both very interested in vessels in this bracket. Japan, South Korea and, perhaps, Spain are looking at capabilities that, practically, need this sized hull to deliver. If F35B dies the death its been so oft touted for then the Italians may be faced with a stark choice to consider a vessel in this general class….one heavily weighted by the very real successes their naval aviation component has delivered in Libya.
JonesyCan’t think, offhand, of any STOBAR light carrier designs kicking about?. Smallest that has been conceived is probably the Indian IAC and you’d be pushing it claiming that is a light carrier!.
JonesyLet’s be honest: it’s highly unlikely that most potential customers for a light carrier/Sea Gripen combo, will end up in a full-on, high-intensity, peer-level combat situation, requiring high sortie rates and full fuel+weapon loads.
Which then demands the question why the carrier in the first place?.
Even fairly “mundane” ship-mounted weapons like the newer Exocets, RBS15’s and Harpoons offer a precision land attack capability at one or two hundred kilometers. Quite ‘cheap’ LPH’s able to operate medium/heavy rotaries and, perhaps with EMKIT-style light cats, slow-mover MALE UAV’s can provide theatre ISTAR, force protection, light intensity strike ops etc.
What does the carrier really bring to justify its existence if you aren’t projecting a peer-threat scenario in your defence planning?
JonesyIs there any information on how many L-39ZO’s have survived in flyable condition over there?. Strikes me that a couple of squadrons of those stored Czech ALCA’s (unless they’ve been picked up somewhere else) would fit the bill perfectly?. Cheap, local air and ground crews largely familiar with the basic airframe and its compatible with legacy armament in country.
Their requirements in the short term amount to a need for air policing, security of their maritime environment and, worst case, some ongoing precision light-striking. L159 seems capable of that and we could even donate the AGM-65G’s that we’ve suddenly got no launch platform for. The E-2’s that Singapore is retiring and those Qatari M2K’s can be brought in, rightly, when priorites allow but I think there is a need for them to stand up a precision light strike capability sooner rather than later given their security situation.
JonesyHow can something that size be operated by a crew of only 12-14?!
2 ‘senior officers’ Captain/XO, 3 junior officers (one with a watchkeeping ticket), 9 enlisted. 3 Shifts manned to provide
1 Navigation (junior officer)
1 Comms
1 Warfare
1 Engineering
Plus the Duty OOW…….and a degree of flexibility for double duty. Dont think I’d fancy it for much more than a few days and you’d only try it with a relatively basic hull, but, this is appears to be a fairly basic hull and its endurance will only be a few days!.
Something like the crewless engineroom technology used on the new Dutch OCPV’s would be likely too.
JonesyI am struggling to respond to this one Leon – you say that you recognise the threats that existed in the cold war but think that both sides committed too much resource?.
Maybe you dont understand this but democratic capitalism won the Cold War without a degradation into general armed conflict. Ask yourself, if you have the intellectual honesty, to quantify the costs of a general war across Europe, Asia and the Atlantic and Pacific oceans in a late 80’s timeframe?. Even if that war somehow failed to go nuclear the devastation wrought would make the billions spent on defence look like pocket change. Easy to look back, after the event, and question things though isnt it?
You have written about threats to Britain and been told that they are irrelevent. Even with zero threat to the home islands we still have no shortage of taskings fo the Royal Navy. You have been told that save for taskings in support of the UK national deterrance very little of the RN’s work is done in home waters. Your response, I believe, was to suggest we cut back on our foreign policy goals!
You have been told that defence diplomacy and maritime mineral wealth protection are both significant tasks for the RN and have tried to deny this. When given specific examples of why these are so you either ignore or attempt to obfuscate obvious truths.
When shown that your claims of the UK not being able to afford the navy we have are plainly false you persist in this idiocy of comparing us to other European nations. Nations who’s taskings for their naval services are far reduced compared to ours. You’ve, again, been told that the RN is overstretched and suffering the effects of the high operational tempo with gapped patrol slots and personnel issues from the number of extended deployments, but, you straight up choose to ignore this.
Leon its great that you’ve shifted your position from the point that the RN is too big to one where it just doesn’t need to be any bigger, but, you do need to look a bit closer at the objective realities. I’ll leave this debate here though as I think I’m wasting my time trying to get you to accept how far from reality you are here.
JonesyCertainly UK could have been equipped better – but that was true for all states involved in the Second World War, also for the attacker Germany, which was even less equipped to fight in 1939. But it would have been in a even worse situation in 1941 or 1942…
What is your point there?. We were not well equipped to fight WW2 even by 1940 yet YOUR contention is that given a couple of years warning that, even with the far more complex weapons of today, a nation could rebuild run-down forces sufficent to fight a war. What you say above is meaningless.
There is no contradiction. You should have at least explained why you think that there is a contradiction.
OK you cite in #3 the fact that countries spent a lot to provide strong defences and in #4 appear to say that they weren’t going to be attacked. Not connecting the dots that the low threat of attack may be related to strength of the forces thanks to the spending you decry in #3?!. Is it not creeping in that Galteiri only pushed forward his Falklands campaign when he perceived British weakness from the 81 defence cutbacks?.
As I have written: Vietnam has no chance to built a military, which could deter or even defeat China. Its economy is too weak compared to China.
Irrelevent.
Actually China concentrates big (but certainly not it biggest!) parts of its much stronger military near Vietnam. It as built e.g. one of its biggest naval bases in these region. Vietnam has also no chance for a local superiority.
The concept you need to research is called ‘virtual attrition’. Vietnam, by acquiring more advanced weaponry, is raising the cost, to China, of keeping local tactical superiority. Unless it deploys significant forces to patrol disputed waters it can find itself at a local disadvantage to strong Vietnamese forces in the tactical scenario. Vietnam certainly does have a chance for local superiority if China doesnt focus forces in the theatre. Something it may find undesirable for political reasons.
I have stated that there is not threat to Britain! The example of Vietnam is not example for a threat to Britain, but to Vietnam! As the arms race in South East Asia is no evidence to a threat to Britain, but an evidence for a threat to the states there!
We were talking about maritime resources being a flashpoint for future conflict. You tried to deny they would be. I’m showing you how wrong you are. This was nothing to do with Britain.
£16bn compared to at least £940.1 debts – certainly not very impressive!
It is when you consider its money that we have already in the budget. This is not an extra 16bn we have to find its money that we have afforded but not ‘spent’.
For sure there is money in Britain, which could be spent for a bigger fleet – but the state has gigantic debts and a lot of other sectors of the state are also underfunded including currently much more urgent and needed sectors than the Royal Navy.
Backtracking now Leon?. I thought you were saying we couldnt afford the navy we have?. Now you are acknowledging that not only can we afford what we have, but, we actually have the money for a considerable amount more!.
I you are still ignoring that this was not problematic at all, because they were used to attack Libya – which has not even a second class military! The La Fayette class was actually overequipped because they did not used most of their weapon systems.
Irrelevent. You were stating that first line escorts could be dispensed with to be replaced with cheaper units like Lafayette-style patrol frigates. I told you what the limitations of those frigates are. I never said they were useless – I said they were useless in terms of fleet operations. First line escorts being capable of both taskings they are the correct vessels to keep in your service if the choice is between the two types.
JonesyFor my part guys, I think it was an Islander of some sort. The engines are quite short so its possible that i didn’t perceive them well enough (although it certainly sounded like it had more than one engine).
Everything else is perfect, the stubby tail, midwing, dark grey and longer nose.
It was (and has been) droning around for most of the last week, but actually over Salisbury rather than Boscombe Down flight area or the edge of the city. That sort of behaviour is odd, and runs counter to keeping a low profile, so i wonder if it gives any clues about what they were testing….?
Yeah I’m pretty sure what I saw was a Defender/Islander and it was heading roughly South East in the general direction of Odiham….where 651sqdns sneaky-beaky Defenders are meant to be based.
JonesyThis AL2 looks a bit more like what I saw yesterday and the angle helps!
http://www.abpic.co.uk/photo/1294756/
Not sure on the mods beyond the obvious nose job and sensor fit?.
Jonesyhttp://www.airliners.net/photo/UK—Army/Britten-Norman-BN-2T-Islander/1217251/M/
Looks something like what I saw. Could be a coincidence of course!?
JonesyHello.
For the past week or so there has been a turboprop powered aircraft flying level circuits at about 6000 ft (perhaps) above Salisbury. This happens late afternoon and well into the night.
I saw it the other day and it was a dark (grey?) cross planform with a small tail and the wing intersecting the fuselage about midway. I could see nothing hanging off the wings and the fuselage was narrow (almost as thick as the wing) when viewed from underneath. The fuselage and wing seemed to be similar length.
Does anyone have any thoughts?
Saw something fitting that description over Basingstoke yesterday evening bout 19:00ish. I noticed it had a fixed undercarriage and, with the planform, looked like a hell of a lot like an Islander. The nose was far too long for a stock model though.
You’ve just reminded me to check into a dim memory lurking in the back of my mind of a sensor-modded variant of the Islander that we were testing a while back!.
JonesyLeon
Right point 1 covered perfectly by PPP. Point 2 is a real stretch – the UK was in no way equipped to fight WW2 by 1940 despite the years of forewarning given and a demo run in Spain. Points 3 & 4 contradict each other and point 5 leads to the Vietnam example that you are trying so hard to wish away as it destroys your little theoretical model.
Vietnam obviously has no chance to win a war against China – and it already lost several of its islands to Chinese invasions. The Vietnamese economy is to weak to able to finance a military on the level of China. It is also to weak to able to finance a military, which could deter China. Vietnam only chance are political solutions (but anyway I am not a fan of the Vietnamese or Chinese regime…).
….because total war or total peace are the only states to consider here?. Just because China overmatches Vietnam in absolute state-state terms doesnt mean Vietnam cant get local superiority where it chooses for brief periods. Anyway the simple fact that they ARE arming to reinforce their stated claims gives lie to your statement. Simply put those ships say you are wrong.
Britain is not in a economic state to afford a bigger navy…
Once again wrong.
“The DWP estimates that £10 billion a year of means-tested benefits remain unclaimed, while Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) figures show that £6.2 billion goes unpaid in unclaimed tax credits.”
http://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/treasury_ctte_inquiry_budget_2011.pdf
There is £16bn actually allocated to a budget and accounted for that hasnt been spent. That money was able to be allocated to Social Security it could be re-allocated just as easily. Just to reiterate that sum would be sufficient, IN A SINGLE YEAR, to recapitalise our entire frigate fleet, put back the deleted T45’s 7&8, add the 8th A-class SSN, build a dozen Khareef OCPV’s AND pay outright for at least one of the new carriers. Efficient and capable naval assets suitable to outfit the navy for the next two generations on ONE years wastage from the Social Security table.
Affording a more comprehensive Navy is very definitely NOT beyond the UK’s financial means. In fact that spend would be a considerable stimulus package for UK manufacturing in itself!.
for which they are mostly needed. I also have not read that they had problems in the war against Libya – they have used predominantly their 10 cm gun…
You are missing the point though yes there is a place for patrol frigates and the Lafayettes are fine ships. The problem is that the place for them isnt in a carrier battlegroup where, because of the lack of fast fleet escorts, the Marine Nationale has been obliged to deploy them.
The patrol frigate/armed OCPV absolutely MUST be an addition to the properly sized core warfighting fleet. Not a replacement for it as you seem to suggest. There are basic core competencies in ASW, ASuW and AAW that must be retained in a fleet. Escort numbers must be enough to keep those competencies alive and, simultaneously, deployable. Anything else and you end up with the patrol frigates slowing down your fast carrier group.
Jonesyi keep asking this but, why is it dave? Is it because Lightning II doesn’t roll off of the tongue and doesn’t sit right in the UK?
‘Dave’ come from a known ‘wag’ on PPrune if I recall the story properly. Early on in the FJCA contest, when attention was focusing on JSF, someone asked what JSF was going to be named. Said wag posted up ‘Dave’ as the answer.
The name stuck.
JonesyReuse is half of it, but are we seeing savings as a result of the reuse? Or just bigger profits for the manufacturer?
If those profits are re-invested in the form of private R&D and further product evolution is that such a bad thing in itself?.
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