KapedaniOk here’s some more pics…(and also some from the ground forces…since there’s no more a place for that)
J-7 pilots in the 70s
All the military pilots at Farka with their AB-206s
FT-2 3-26 that defected to Italy in the troubles of 1997…here at an Italian airbase after it landed (almost undetected until the last minute)
Same aircraft at Rinas
from 1990
KapedaniSure, the Serbian MoD blows 248 million bucks on toilet paper each year and the 118 million ‘equipping’ budget goes on pots and pans… Give me a break.
The reality is that most of the ‘regular activities’ budget goes on fuel and ammunition and spare parts for trucks, electricity etc. The deployments in the security zone around the Kosovo border must also eat into that part of the budget. So, if the army runs all by itself on 548 million a year – then everything else (USD185million) is left over for “other things”. Next year the “other things” budget is slated to be 207 million. The year after that it should be 220 million (the regular activities and personel salaries parts are to go up too).
Hmm…as I said your categories mean very little…they’r too vague for you to know what the money goes too…and if the Serbian military operates as it always has…buying flack jackets for 10 times their worth to make businessmen and generals very rich…then yes maybe 185 million goes to toilet paper…it isn’t going to where its needed…thats quite obvious…otherwise pilots wouldn’t be getting 10 flight hours a year.
“Purchasing” can include a VERY wide range of good and services…
KapedaniAccording to the Serbian MoD (all figures for 2006 in millions 2004USD):
Total military budget = 730
Personnel salaries = 300
Regular activities (training and suchlike, I assume) = 248
Construction = 61
Equipping = 118
Scientific and Research work = 6
First of all I don’t see this on the Serbian MoD website…I don’t see anything as far as budget is concerned…nor this 730 million figure either…from what I’v read it was supposed to be much smaller than that.
The defense budget previously was far too high for Serbia to maintain…its a drain on the economy…and is actually being reduced accordingly as a percentage of GDP. This was 3.3% of GDP in 2004, 2.9% in 2005 and 2.5% in 2006. Even an expenditure of 2.5% is too large in my opinion…but as you can see it is going down becasue it is UNMAINTAINABLE…which is what I’v been saying all along…you can have a good army if you don’t have toilet paper maybe. It was 8% up until 2000…image the strain on an economy with such an idiotic expenditure!!
The budget isn’t going to be going UP…its going to be going DOWN…becasue even the current levels are unmaintainable…and this will be associated with deep cuts and lots downsizing…becasue otherwise it is unmaintanable.
This is reality…and I think your MoD realises this pretty well…I don’t think they are up to the level of understanding of Slobo, Kobra and 127th…for your own good.
(and just to get this out of the way becasue I know Slobo is going to jump in here and say “but Albania bla bla bla”…out defense expenditures right now as % of GDP are actually about 1.3%…becasue well…there are other priorities besides making generals rich…and by 2010 its planned to go up to 2%. Do the math…it eventually ends up about as much as you have now…for an army with far less expenditures…which means far more money per soldier)
Now…in NATO countries as well as in PfP countries defense budgets are usually divided about 40-50% for salaries, 25-35% for maintanance, infrastructure and such, and about 25% for equipment purchases.
So to please 127th with a link..here it is:
28. The army, the country’s second most trusted institution, was nominally between 70-75,000 strong, and would clearly benefit from PfP participation, Serbian officials and NATO member country representatives agreed. Resources for maintenance, let alone investments, were very limited, as approximately 80% of the defence budget was needed for personnel costs, members were informed. Nonetheless, soldiers, like large parts of the society, face huge social problems.
Even that 10 million euros to overhaul the 5 Mig-29s…came from selling off army property…money which was taken directly from selling off property and put into a fund for that purpose…not from some money which just happened to be laying around for new purchases.
Now…THINK…what this means for your billion dollar little ideas of purchasing this or that…hmmm…
Lets see…in 2005 MiG-21 pilots got an average of 3.5 hours of flight time…no thats not a typo…thats 3.5 hours as reported by Vojska magazine…with overall flight times for all pilots (including helicopters)…was 10.5 hours.
And here you are talking about 150 hours a year…:
Now…Serbia’s army right now is made up of conscripts. They cost only about 5000-6000 dollars per person to maintain…but by 2010 it will switch to professional army. A professional soldier costs 20,000 dollars to maintain. So guess what…downsizing!!!
You…know…its what everyone else is doing…did Serbia discover some new method that allows it to purchase billion dollar contracts for planes…when the rest of the military is crumbeling?? You guys aren’t getting much of this reality to be talking about such crazy things…
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I know…I know…before you even open your mouth…Albania this and Albania that. If the best reponse to this you have is…Albania this and Albania that…it must mean you just don’t want to understand reality. Sorry…you need to…you need to and you need to stop fantasyzing so much…
KapedaniNo, it doesn’t stand AT ALL! What are you talking about???? I don’t see 80% anywhere in Inks stats.
*I don’t know how to write that sound when you shake your head in amazement…but insert that sound here*
Inks stats?? I said 80%…and that came from a statement made by Serb officials about their defense expenditures…and from what Ink writes…that is not only more than likley…it has to be. Way more than half the budget goes to salaries and “regular activities”. What about toilet paper??
But maybe if you put it CAPTIAL letters it makes it true I guess…
You telling me that albania’s gdp is gonna grow by 40% in less than 4 years? You’re kidding right?!?
“Lagging behind its Balkan neighbors, Albania is making the difficult transition to a more modern open-market economy. The government has taken measures to curb violent crime and to spur economic activity and trade. The economy is bolstered by annual remittances from abroad of $600-$800 million, mostly from Greece and Italy; this helps offset the towering trade deficit. Agriculture, which accounts for about one-quarter of GDP, is held back because of frequent drought and the need to modernize equipment, to clarify property rights, and to consolidate small plots of land. Energy shortages and antiquated and inadequate infrastructure contribute to Albania’s poor business environment, which make it difficult to attract and sustain foreign investment.” (Cia Factbook)
GDP – real growth rate: 5.5% (2005 est.)
note: Albania has a large gray economy that may be as large as 50% of official GDP (2005 est.)
Budget: revenues: $1.96 billion
expenditures: $2.377 billion; including capital expenditures of $500 million (2005 est.)
You should stop using the CIA factbook for all your info…you end in toruble that way easy.
BTW did you ever figure out what FY02 means??
KapedaniSkenderbe don’t bother replying to Kobra…
And don’t bother replying to ridiculous discussions like this…becasue you’ll attract all the flies in the forum and it’ll end up like shi*t. Its like when you spit watermellon seeds out and all the ants come to you…just don’t do it.
KapedaniOh wonderful…this discussion is back on track now… :rolleyes:
KapedaniInk…I didn’t say SALARIES…I said personel. Keeping people in an army requires a lot more than just a salary…so my statement of 80% stands.
Slobo…you’r a lost cause…
KapedaniHighly unlikely at all…we couldn’t maintain F-16s easily to begin with…nor are they needed…nor would they be worth purchasing 10 years from now.
KapedaniBut surely the very fact that he’s talking about it means that it isn’t the complete fantasy that exists only in the minds of members of this forum.
Well…EVERY military commander has things he would like. That isn’t reality…
According to the Serbian MoD (all figures for 2006 in millions 2004USD):
Total military budget = 730
Personnel salaries = 300
Regular activities (training and suchlike, I assume) = 248
Construction = 61
Equipping = 118
Scientific and Research work = 6
This isn’t telling us anything…equipping means a lot of things and includes a lot of things.
Less of that thank you.
It seems to be universal…and you’r not doing anything to change that.
Yea sure, because Serbia’s economy isn’t expected to grow at all. In fact the nation’s GDP is expected to be (2004)USD34billion.
Did you read what I wrote carefully?? I said by 2010 it will big as yours is NOW.
Just because they were offered in exchange for debt doesn’t mean that the price per airframe stated was not realistic. Surely it would be in Russia’s interests to make the M2 seem as expensive as possible so that they would have to give Austria fewer airframes in exchange for the debt. So that the price offered in a debt exchange scheme should, theoretically, be inflated and not reduced.
Nop…when you offer someone something in exchange for debt…you can’t expect to be making any profit on it…and no one is going to accept it at higher prices. You usually give it away at lower prices…like at a pawn shop.
KapedaniThat isn’t going to happen for a very long time…
What they’r looking at now…one option…is to send pilots to Czech republic to train on L-159s and possibly acquire a few of those…but even that will take some years.
KapedaniInk…yes he said there is need. What is said in one sentance…is very different from what can be achieved.
I’ll ask you once more…on what money?? Do you realise that 80% of the Serbian defense budget goes towards personel needs only. How much does this leave for all the other needed things…and then how much is left over for new procurements???
Simple reasoning…you people can’t seem to be following all too well.
As I expected Slobo had something to say about Albania in response to all this…typical Slobo brilliance.
Oh wait, CIA Factbook says albania’s was $56million! Out of a GDP of $18billion! That’s 00.27777777777777777777777778%! Man, am i glad we don’t have to rely on charity or drug smuggling to buy tampons for our special forces. Tampons are cheaper than gauze…i mean, you’ve got to have something to pack their wounds with.
As I’v pointed out several times…and maybe someone can explain it to 127th…what exactly FY02 means and what year we’r in.
Serbia’s GDP is 28 billion…Albania’s is 18 billion (even though we’r 3 times smaller in population). Our budget is going to be 2% of GDP by 2010…whe our budget will be as big as yours now.
Except that there are various things nations put in defense budgets…not always the same things…and varies greatly in terms of how they outsource to civilians duties within the military…another aspect you don’t seem to understand very well when you throw such numbers around.
So with Serbia’s defense budget…just personel needs are barely met…or the vast majority of it goes to personel needs. How do you figure to keep that up…and do all the purchasing and upgrades you’r planning?? Answer…you aren’t…not for 10 more years…certainly not the air force. The ground forces are pinning their hopes on export orders…which aren’t going to be coming in any quantities to allow for anything major.
And you all seem to be hoping on this supposed debt Russia ows you. Russia does owe you anything…you owe them instead for all the gas Russia supplied during the embargo at credit.
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Simply put…modernization other than the very basic refurbishment of a handful of aircraft…is out of the question for another 10 years. It ain’t gonna happen…and talks of Su-30s and all such things…are nothing except amuzing.
MiG-29M2s?? Not even a production model to begin with…and offered to Austria to pay off debt…which is why the low price. Russia doesn’t owe you any debt…you owe her.
KapedaniThere’s no plans to get Hueys to begin with. This was reported in some website and it was a typo…they obviously meant to say AB-205 and AB-212s. What they plan to keep getting more of are those two types…they will not be American-made examples therefore not Hueys.
KapedaniSome sort of new-built MiG-29 (the M2 would be a favourite) in small numbers would be much more suitable.
Su-30s weren’t suitable…but MiG-29M2 is?? And the cost for them?? Hmm…almost as much as Su-30.
Lets see…there are currently about 28 G-4s in existance of which only about a dozen are so are flyable. 17 J-22s (not including recon and trainers) survive…of which no more than a handful are flyable. 31 MiG-21s (not including 8 trainers) survive…of which far less than half are flyable. 5 MiG-29s currently unflyable but to be overhouled.
Now this you think is a sustainable force??? You guys don’t like to hear it…so you ignore reality and come up with fantasy world of MiG-29M2 snad Su-30s and PAK-FAs…or better yet result to some outburst of obscenities…but this is the reality.
Lets see now where is this money going to come from for all these new purchases you’r talking about…purchases which I might add exist nowhere else except in the minds of forum members here.
24 G-4s are going to be sold to Libya…so its been said at least. They will be upgraded to the G-4MD standart (meaning some minor electronic upgrades, and ability to launch AA-8). So G-4s…are most likely going to be going very soon…with probably a small number (about 4-6) to remain in service perhaps for training. What you guys don’t realise when you talk about all those Serbian weapons projects for guided missiles and bombs…is that there are no aircraft for them. And when I tell you this…of course you jump on my throat because thats all you can counter it with. Why would you open up a production line to make missiles…for what…for 24 aircraft??? You’r going to make 100 missiles at best. Its not FEASOBLE…you end up LOOSING MONEY that way. Maybe thats what you need to start realising. Those projects were created for the SLIM hope of some export orders…which never came and never will…because why on earth would anyone buy Serbian-made missiles??…unless you’r Libya and no one else will sell to you.
J-22s…of course they’ll go. A force which today can barely put up 4 aircraft in the air…isn’t going to be surviving very long. Of over 200 J-22s produced for Yugoslavia…20 years later this is all thats left. Not a very impressive record…not an aircraft that will last very long in service anyway.
MiG-21s…old and beat but probably the most reliable aircraft Serbia ever had. A handful will keep flying for a few more years.
MiG-29s…the “upgrade” is obviously nothing more than uverhaul to make them flightworthy again…and conages in comm systems. For that price…thats all you get. Good…4 fighters and a trainer will keep flying for some more years.
So this is it for the next 10 years…You CAN’T buy anything else…regardless how much you want to keep screaming and kicking otherwise. The Serbian AF will have 2-3 squadrons, one for air defense composed of the MiG-29s…2 for other duties composed of the remaining MiG-21s and G-4s…total aircraft will be about 25-30 at best.
And here you are talking about exuberant purchases that cost BILLIONS of dollars each…with hundreds of millions more every year to keep them flying…and you seem to think there’s nothing wrong with that.
Well if you do nothing else except fly the planes and pay off for them…and have not a single other person in your entire armed forces except the pilots…you could do that…in 10 years time. But thats not how it works.
So forget anything else for the next 10 years. There’s 7 flyable Mi-8s for God’s sake out of 36 airframes that linger unoperational. 8 An-26 unoperational…1 will be made flyable now.
Maybe there are bigger problems with the Serbian AF now…such as keeping it from going entirely to hell…then purchasing PAK-FAs or other such idioticies.
So forget anything else for the next 10 years…10 years from now…thing could be very different for everybody.
This is why I say you guys make no sense at all whenever this issue comes up. You seem to be dillusional with images of some great former Yugoslavia…You can’t seem to understand that the reality today is that there are barely more than 30 aircraft capable of flying…and there are about 150 others rusting away in ruins. But this force…is now even pretending to be competing with Hungary or Bulgaria or Croatia…and having “offensive” capabilities to take ocntrol of some neighbours airspace. You guys didn’t learn much from 15 years of bloddy noses did you??
So Serbia is privitizing government firms?? Great…that means fancier cars and new houses for a lot of politicians…and if the Serb government is…excuse me for saying…STUPID…enough to be spending that money on the military instead of the rest of the crumbeling economy…as if the 5% of GDP expenditure already wasn’t suicidial enough…then you guys deserve all the fighters you can get:)…if you want to go at it North Korean style.
If on the other hand you want to realise that:
a) You will get NOTHING until war criminals are handed over to the Hague…so you better dig Mladic out of the hole he’s hiding in quickly.
b) Integrate into the region with other countries in agreements and maybe later in PfP…which means none of your crazy “offenisive taking over someone else’s airspace” talk…
c) Realise that no one is after you…and even if anyone was after you…your best choice would be to keep quiet…because you aren’t seriously thinking on taking anyone else on again…be it anyone.
d) Live PEACEFULLY with your neighbours…if you learned anything from 15 years of losing and losing…
maybe you want to realise these things first…and then you’ll realise why there aren’t going to be any PAK-FAs flying around anywhere (not in Serbia…and not even in Russia most likely)
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KapedaniThanks for the info…looks like a great weapon…along with the new family of bombs the Russians are making.
What about the new TV guided glide-bomb which has a 60km range and autonomous guidance?? That would be a great weapon for these strategicbombers as well.
Didn’t the Tu-22M3 also carry guided bombs since the mid-80s?? KAB-1500TK-PR?? Was this ever carried as a practical load or was it just an “available”load not normally carried?
KapedaniThis all sounds like very interesting plans…and needed.
How many Tu-22M3s does Russia currently have available…and how many will be kept?? From many years ago last time I checked there were over 250 of them available…but that was a long time ago.
Also…what kinds of GPS guided bombs does Russia have? Are any of these in production yet? Can they be equipped to more conventional types like Su-24?
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