That is depending on the economic development – in USA the economy was growing very slowly the last decades (since the 1970s), debts are accumulating and the balance of trade is very negative, i.e. the USA are heavily indebted to other countries (e.g. Japan, China, EU). In contrast China is growing fast and has a positive balance of trade.
But still: today the US spend more then all (or most) of the other countries combined. In the near future it is likely that the US have to reduce their spending on its military.
I agree that economic growth sets the baseline. It is almost certain that China will outstrip American defence spending at some point as its economic base will be significantly larger. But over shorter time scales domestic policies can move to reinforce or oppose the long-term trends. Some of the factors I think will be at work:
United States
— downward pressure on military spending over next decade
— return of Republican hawks to power in 2020s.
— increasing military spending thereafter as United States begins to feel its #1 position threatened,
— this will in turn force the much-delayed showdown between competing visions of American society: empire, taxation, welfare state. Could get very ugly. Emergence of fascism a distant but real possibility.
China
— next decade will continue existing trend of economic growth with military budgets proceeding apace.
— thereafter balance will become more delicate as the ‘easy’ wells for large-scale increases in domestic prosperity begin to run dry. As population ages and economic growth slows, government will face pressure for increased domestic spending.
— at the same time, China’s newfound strength will expand its attentions to global horizon, whilst need to confront many simultaneous threats (US, Japan, India, Korea, etc.) will ensure that pressure to maintain defence spending remains high also.
— prognosis for increasingly delicate balancing act, but more of a slow pressure cooker scenario compared to relatively sharp inflection point for US.
Can expect both nations to make extensive use of nationalist propaganda in refocus attention of their citizens from domestic issues to more palatable directions.
So yes. China could potentially overtake American military spending by late 2020s, but in practice I think this is likely to be delayed until perhaps late 2030s, largely on account of increased American military spending amidst reactionary political environment attempting to ‘hold the line’ for liberty and Apple Pie and so forth. If world fails to end (i.e. major conflict, revolutions in either nation, etc.) hysteria will subside and American society and America-China relationship will find new equilibrium by 2040. China I think is unlikely to embark either on crazy spending spree or Euro-style minimalism.
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