Rather than the Indians and the Pakistanis trying to project their own insecurities on each other and try to convince the other that its version of reality will pan out, how about we try to place ourselves in the shoes of the PAF and see what we would do in their place? Given this region of the world, strategic interests of many countries can change quite dramatically in the span of even a few years, and this has had a significant impact on Pakistan and the PAF in particular. India is not immune to shifting geopolitical changes in the region, but has been impacted to a lesser degree than Pakistan over the past few decades.
I think we all know the limitations imposed on the PAF, primarily financial and the threat of sanctions, especially from Western nations and the US in particular. In light of the historical precedents, Pakistan could be subjected to greater isolation, or it could be viewed as a partner again for whatever may happen in the future. The worst case scenario is that the US imposes deep sanctions on Pakistan, severely impacting the Viper fleet of the PAF, as happened in the 90s. The best case scenario would be greater access to trade, equipment and maybe even military assistance packages. The most likely scenario is a continuation of the current luke warm relationship with the US, given the threat of greater instability in the region affecting Pakistan, resulting in the collapse of the state, similar to Somalia or Syria perhaps.
The PAF’s most reliable supplier of hardware has been China, and that isn’t likely to change in the foreseeable future, at least not on the face of it. Worst case scenario would be if China shifts its strategic interests and alliances in the region, causing a significant reversal of its traditional policy towards Pakistan. Best case scenario would be greater access to cheap credit facilities and maybe even subsidising future procurement programmes for the PAF. The most likely scenario is the continuation of the strong and reliable relationship with China, with a larger proportion of the future PAF comprising fighters derived from future Chinese projects.
In light of these conditions, if I had the job of steering the PAF’s future, it would be similar to what the current projection appears to be, i.e. consolidate and strengthen the Viper fleet through the acquisition of used Vipers, but ones with plenty of life left in their airframes, and put them through MLU. The Viper will still be around for a good few decades yet, and amongst nations with good relations with the PAF, so in the case of sanctions, spares availability may not be as great an issue as it was a couple of decades ago. However, I wouldn’t make the PAF overly dependent on a single Western type that is exposed to such risk, so maybe a little less than a third of the entire fleet would comprise Vipers.
If the JF-17 project continues as planned, this would be the most numerous type in the service with the PAF. The development plan provided by Yang Wei, the project head of the JF-17/FC-1 suggests a roadmap with decent growth in the capabilities aircraft, such as AESA, engine, avionics, weapons etc. That leaves space for a third “high-end” type to supplement the Vipers and the JF-17. Over the past few years, that was assumed to be a PAF specific J-10/FC-20. However, despite mixed news reports of that possibility being on again/off again due to either financial reasons, or (given the speed of other Chinese fifth gen projects) the PAF wanting to skip another fourth gen type and wait for something like the J-31, nothing has happened in the meantime. True, it would make sense for the PAF to opt for a Chinese derived fifth gen type. But I would consider other options. Given the strengthening relationship between the Turkish aerospace defence sector and PAF/PAC, the TFX may be a viable option. This would provide good access to Western derived technology, but perhaps offset any sanction risks somewhat. However, the major challenge for this option would be funding, it’s likely to be expensive and I doubt the Turkish government would be willing to offer any lines of credit, at least not to the same extent as China. Another option, although an outlier, would be to consider something like the Gripen NG. Although not a true fifth gen type some would say, it would come pretty close in terms of performance and capability, but with cheap operating costs, not to mention the integration with the Erieyes and perhaps any future upgrade of these or follow-on acquisitions. The major obstacle to this would be the high acquisition costs. Another option to consider, and perhaps one not so far fetched, would be to become the third partner in the KFX programme along with Indonesia. Similar to the TFX option, this would allow access to relatively high end technology, but with fewer risks of sanctions. However, the same obstacles apply here, i.e. costs and funding. But if Pakistan could come close matching the contribution of Indonesia, that could lower costs all round for the partners. In addition, the KFX and TFX options could also bring along opportunities for license production and work share agreements, similar to what PAC is doing with the K-8, JF-17 and Turkish UAVs.
So if it were me, I would plan for something along the lines of (approximate numbers):
100 Vipers – all upgraded to a Block-52 type standard.
250 JF-17s – all upgraded to Block-3/4 according to the current plan.
100 J-31/Gripen NG/TFX/KFX.
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