RE: Airliner World 2010
I just don’t think a lot of the US carriers (bar Southwest) have the management or cost structure to be efficient. Whichever 2 of the majors last the longest will ultimately survive.
BA has actually made quite healthy profits, and by concentrating on their strengths this is only going to improve. They are still too reliant on the North American (who am I kidding – I meant LHR-JFK!) market. However they have gradually downsized the fleet in that area: B747 Classics retired, a fair few B744 flights replaced by B772. The surplus B744 aircraft either being stored or used to operate other markets.
Their next big mark will be Australia I think. They work very closely with Qantas and let’s face it, they are 2 of only a handful of profitable airlines these days. I see BA increasing their ownership stake in QF, though only by a few %. Maybe QF will do likewise, and each company will buy 5% of the other.
Iberia will be safe and will even grow, on account of the very weak competition on South American routes. But it will not expand beyond this niche. Therefore they will integrate more closely with Oneworld partners.
LH will be annihilated in the German domestic market and will suffer in European sectors too. However they will retain some big ‘uns, like FRA-CDG and FRA-LHR. Long haul should continue to be profitable.
AF could go either way…no one really knows who fit they are, because AF = French government. On their own…who knows. They’ll probably do OK.
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