looking at the new pics, i take back my comments on the j-20 paint

Talking about turn rate, an engineer made a similar comparision between USAF 4-5 gen aircraft ( equalize combat radius and weapon load )

http://www.f-16.net/forum/download/file.php?id=22895&sid=fceea8e076beb5734e1905ae96dd3c30

thankies.

didnt realize the F-35C was so much a better performer than the A and B

Here’s one interpretation of what it means for the immediate future:

14 original il76, bought from russia decades ago. several second hand il76 (civilian variant) bought sometime by the 2000. (4 of which serve as awacs). 10 more second hand ones bought in recent few years via rosoboronexport. 3 il78 second hand il78 bought from ukraine. Total of 31 il76. Further il76 purchases unlikely due to y-20 coming online.
50-60 H6k produced to date, with production ongoing. One likely option would be to keep the production until all of PLAAF’s planes are replaced. That’d mean another 30ish or so airframes. Another option would be to have PLANAF’s planes replaced as well, eventually. If so, that’d mean another 30 or so planes. So total of some 90-120 h6k might be expected.

Y20 currently being produced, so far maybe 6-8 airframes, including prototypes.

Assuming old il76 and second hand il76 need at least one set of new engines, which seems likely as engines last less longer than such airframes – that’s 31*4 engines for il76 fleet.
plus the h6k fleet – 180 to 240 engines needed.
plus y20 produced so far – lets say 30 engines.

Plus one would need some sort of spare engine capacity. Western engines, as far as i can tell, are usually planned with 20 or percent extra engines. Maybe russian engines follow a different logic, with shorter lifespans, so i’ll guesstimate here with just 10% of extra engines.

Total could thus be: 124+180+30= 358 + 35 = ~366 if 90 h6k are planned.
if 120 h6k are planned that goes up to ~426.

Which suggests to me there may be more engines ordered in the future, even if y20 somehow switches to another engine really soon.
Or course, more realistically, y20 will go on being produced with d30kp2 for some more time, a few years at least. Which could easely require up to a 100 additional engines.

If we take into account that h6k are all brand new and will at one point in their life need engine replacement, even more future d30kp2 are going to be needed. Domestic engine variant of d30kp2 for just 200ish engines seems unlikely. And if ws18 was already ready – we wouldn’t see these d30kp2 ordered now. So i’d say ws18 engine plans were dropped at some point and h6k fleet may fly with russian made engines until they’re retired.

that link in your sig is surprisingly entertaining and fair.
but now Turkey and Russia are buddy buddy and willing to bend over for each other. maybe except for the assad thing