etc etc etc ..

The DOD or the services are not giving up on all other plans for A2AD counter just because the f-22 is in operation and the F-35 will soon be fielded in large numbers. On the contrary capability is being built up to counter all perceived threats from all sides.

how F-35 will soon be fielded. At best IOC around 2019 in small numbers. that’s a lot time in rapidly changing world.

Not all the counter will come from fighters..The aim with the F-22/F-35 was always to exist over an airspace with the same impunity as the F-15/16 combo enjoyed during its time. The A2AD forces have become much stronger, and so the fighters need to evolve..Stealth is one aspect, avionics, tactics, ISR and EW is another aspect. Offense and the ability to “rain hell” on the enemy is yet another. All are being addressed simultaneously through known (F-35, NGJ, FA-XX, Darpa Air Dominance Initiative etc) and not so well known (RQ170/180, LRS_B) efforts.

the problem with Stealth is too expensive so it is sucking money from all other programs and slow down procurement/deployments. infact these stealth platforms are not easy to place closer to action.

Believe it or not JSR even professors can be fools who write total garbage.The possible re-routing of gas pipes by Russia is not dependent on how many subs Turkey has in the Black sea as the the prof would have us believe

I would not consider Israel professors as fool. the most technological advanced startup nation.
rerouting gas line will create severe problem for Turkey as Russia will be free to bomb other pipelines thus increasing gas prices and creating Ukraine kind bankruptcy in all other countries of blacksea.
by that time Russia would have built alliance with Arabs, Jews, Persian, Orthodox. with complete encirclement of Turkey. this predictions are very safe to make.
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2012&mm=11&dd=28&nav_id=83374

I see where you get some of your opinions from now JSR. This op-ed piece is one of the most accomplished piles of gash I’ve seen in a while. The author notes that the Turk Navy can only achieve parity with the Black Sea fleet (ignoring the critical imbalance in subs of 11 – 1 in the Turkish favour) if it uses its whole fleet. Using its whole fleet in this context means a day or two’s sailing through the straits…its not much of a logistic challenge. Where does the Black Sea fleet reinforce from?. Vladivostok?. Murmansk?.

We best leave alone comments of how the Ukraine have effectively handed over 11 ‘major naval units’ when the only major modern combatant in their fleet was alongside in Odessa last I heard and the Black Sea Fleet’s prizes, in fact, number a couple of 30yr old missile boats in dubious materiel condition and more doubtful combat potential.

There are at least 6 contributors here, without thinking, that could produce a far more credible piece than this…difference is that they wouldn’t arrive at the same conclusion…because its twaddle!.

the writer is professor. there is no reason for him to write it without substance. he has to maintain his reputation in academia considering as competitive as in Israel. Ukraine is just side show. once Russia built two more pipelines. it will behave very differently with countries like Turkey and Middleast.
Turks limited budget did not simply allow to operate more than 1 sub at a time. and than consider the poor competence in so many fields. highly doubtfull that subs can survive for too long.

Every air force or department of defense budgets a certain amount of money for a future procurement. The RAAF have to have a “ballpark” figure in mind when they go on and commit to buying 58 fighters. They have to present that number to their MOD which then has to see whether that amount is available for procurement etc etc etc. They also do not know what the “going rate” would be in the time-frame for contractor jobs to build up the infrastructure, but that does not stop them from estimating that roughly 1.5 billion (Aussie) out of the 12 Billion would go towards construction and setting up facilities @ two bases. Weapon costs and training costs can probably be better understood and budgeted for with higher degree of accuracy but they still will not know the final figure until its time to sign on the dotted line. The MOD is not paying anything yet for the fighters.

The USAF does the same in its budget documents. As mentioned earlier, it often turns out that the price negotiated by the JPO is different from the amount that the DOD budgets for the product. In the case of the LRIP 7 it was 22% lower than what was budgeted. At times the services have to pay more then what they have budgeted or expected..

Your overall program cost can and does fluctuate…Look at the US DOD’s own cost prediction of what it would cost after everything is said and done. Its come down quite a bit after going up by quite a bit from initial estimates. These costs would be paid over decades..

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-lockheed-fighter-idUSBREA3G27K20140417

they are still estimating well into 10 years. this estimate can be widely off for export prices. it is like India MMRCA saga announcing winner years ahead of signing baches of contract.

http://www.janes.com/article/36906/australia-signs-up-for-58-more-f-35s
Informed sources expect separate contracts to be agreed for individual batches of the 58 new aircraft, with the first likely to be signed in 2015.

And this is what i call good news for the JSF program:

IOC date:

And a possible “third tranche” to be decided in the twenties:

Not too shaby, not too shaby at all.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/australia-to-confirm-58-aircraft-f-35-order-398443/

this is very slow induction. they are still negotiating 12 out of 14. the rest of 58 are post 2020 production look like.

A contract covering long-lead production items for the other 12 during LRIP blocks eight and nine is currently being negotiated with the USA

I predict that Antonov falls back into favor within 12 months and begins producing superior products for the Russian Commonwealth within 36 months.

how is Antonov going to produce superior products?. Ukraine is now buffer state and no one invest serious money in buffer state to create a superior product. Ukriane was part of Soviet Union so it was not a buffer state like Eastern EU. so there was heavy industry.

until this day Eastern EU can not produce a superior product of its own despite huge investment/skill/money transfer. Only assembly is possibility. Its a dead weight carrying by Western EU. That failed approach is not going to be repeated by Russia. my prediction is its over for Ukraine when current stock is exhausted.

You know I am surprised about that, interesting move by Russia. As a PR move it is quite interesting.

hardly a PR move. but it is to induce Ukraine into wasting money and technical man power in worthless endeavor of operating ships instead of creating real ground forces with all the air defence elements.

countries simply not trust Ukraine with money let alone give them half decent weopons that can be sold to highest bidder.

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/7009
We know that they have declared their willingness to make a $1-billion loan available, not in the form of credits and assistance, but in the form of guarantees. What does this mean? It means guarantees for banks that would be ready to lend to Ukraine, but there are no such banks and thus this amounts to no assistance at all. This really is a very strange situation and we have every reason to be concerned about it.

The support structure may be expensive to build, but they were talking about life time cost

what is life cycle cost? it include time value of money. large upfront payments can decrease money available for training, upgrades and maintainance. when you look at AWACS use it is very specialized plane and very rarely it can be used like commercial airline to get benefit of fuel efficiency.