JSRFor such scenario today; Turkey has 10 times as many ships, 20 times as many minelayers, has numerous submarines which could preposition themselves and wait in the straits dead quiet. In order to reach Black Sea, one has to cross two straits, not one. History tells us, if Turkey closes the straights, entire Russian Navy (or any Navy for that matter) is not enough to force their way through.
Turkey has 10 times more ships but Russia can deliver 1000 times more antiship and anti radiation missiles from Air and in very short period of time. each Flanker can carry six of them and can be reloaded from far off airbases outside from cruise missile range. so your history lesson does not apply.
Russia is exporting huge amount of arms to Middleast and at the end it will jump into it to tip the balance. Turkey does not have any business.
http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2013/12/26/iraq-to-become-third-largest-russian-arms-purchaser/
JSRNo, it really can’t.
It can. Sochi get $50b. Crimea is worth over $500b. (it has very important role in Middleast conflicts)
from now on Turkish procurement very static as its import depended country with world highest import deficit and currency devaluation.
corruption is over the top.
http://www.janes.com/article/35260/turkish-milgem-and-lpd-naval-projects-allegedly-rigged
Turkish Milgem and LPD naval projects allegedly rigged
JSR@JSR; I tell you what is done by Turkish, verified by independent sources, accepted by any sane man, and you still claim those cannot be done.
For the past 20 years it was the Russian Navy that kept inoperational, even inmobile ships in commission. It was the Russian Navy that lost ships and personel to accidents, primarily due to lack of maintance and training. Lets look at individual ships of Russian Black Sea Fleet;
20 years. BSF is very operational in past 10 years and that include past 3 years land mark support to Syria in turning around the war
-BSF had Ochakov in commission until 2010, despite ship didn’t even have radar, weapons or even machinary.
-Officially Tango class submarine B-380 is still in commission, has anyone seen it somewhere afloat? No.
-Second largest ship of BSF, cruiser Kerch, has never left the port for 6 years. Its main weapon, URPK-3 system is 50 years old, and due to its stupid dependence on SA-N-3 fire control radars, it NEVER got upgraded, and NEVER got antishipping capability. Its missiles are not produced for 15+ years. Its air defense, SA-N-3 is totally obsolete, IDK about upgrades, but its missiles are not produced since 1991.
-Third largest ship Smetlivy, uses SA-N-1. No new missiles are produced since 30 years, let alone upgraded. It lacks also CIWS stations.
-Only active BSF submarine B-874 Alrosa had an experimental propolsion that was unsuccesful enough as it was never applied to newer ships.
-Main weapon systems two Krivak frigates, even if upgraded, still use the shorter URPK launchers, which lack ASM capability. Again, SS-N-14 missile isnt in production for 15+ years. SA-N-4 system, never got an upgrade since introduction of 9M33M3 missile in 80’s. It so obsolete, Russians never bothered installing them on Petr Veliky, even though it had provision for it, the space remains empty. Krivak class also lack CIWS system.And thats about it, those are the blue water capable ships of BSF. So, other than the Moskva (still in no way can be called “new”), Russian BSF is really in a pathetic and laughable condition, no matter how much chest pounding you make.
OTOH, A simple Google Earth search will reveal a single Knox class frigate sill sits fully equipped and armed in 2013, and using history toolbar shows, its painted somewhere between 13/6/2012 and 17/10/2012, despite the ship officially decomissioned in 22/02/2012. (History toolbar in Google Earth also shows different G classes being upgraded with VLS systems, since you are having trouble swallowing the reality)
Whether Turk Navy ships upgraded or not. Israeli will know about it as Turks completely Western import depended Navy.
all are short range weopons that cannot outrange BSF land based anti ship missiles. Turkish Navy has zero operational ability in war time as it is energy import depended country with no effective land based air defence system to protect critical infrastructure. Navy cannot operate without land based support. frigate has 30 days of fuel. and black sea is very static.
In short, if we are looking to past 10 years, Turkish Navy has money to apply some maintainance even to a officially decomissioned frigate, and (If you bothered reading my previous posts) have money to maintain and upgrade all its bluewater capable ships and submarines, plus built new replacement ships. Russian BSF didn’t have money to maintain their commissioned ships in operational status. Their ships use missiles which no longer exist, had no upgrades, and gradually left to rust away without getting any replacement ships.
what great things have Turkish navy done in past 10 years. could not even support flotilla.
Situation is improving for Russian Navy, but as BSF is not getting priorities. Black Sea Fleet doesn’t and will never have the 1/3rd of the capabilities of Turkish Navy for any forseeable future; by the time 3 ships of Grigorovich class replaces all archaic ships of BSF, Turkish Navy will have introduced 8 Ada corvettes and 4 TF-100 frigates. Possibly going on with the batch of 8 TF-2000 frigates by then. By the time both 636.3 Kilos enter service in BSF, Turkish Navy wil be operating 6 Type 214 AIP ships, along with 12 other submarines.
Thats my last message to you, believe whatever you want. This discussion is over.
fact of matter is Russia can afford to spend in single year on BSF as much money as Turkish navy in past 20 years. that difference is increasing each day. Russia develop its on antiship missiles that no one in world can match.
JSRthose computers may be so old that the no longer produced but it more than a decade and India still cannot overhaul Su-30. and no replacement.
JSRhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
Have fun :very_drunk: We have around 1/5 budget of Russia Even today; Speaking of 2003;
[ATTACH]226353[/ATTACH]
In 2003; We had 10 billion budget vs Russia’s 18 billion. :stupid:
so you know Russia military budget in 2003 based on unreliable open sources. In 2002 S korea could afford 40 F-15K. it is the country that Russia outbided in Olympic spending plan in 2007. Just to give you scale of Korean money from one company.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/11/28/samsung_plans_to_outspend_76_countries_gdp/
Russia can afford to waste massive amount of money. It has strong bargaining chip like Missile tech & scientific knowledge to Korea in exchange for electronic components.
Turkey was practically broke in 2003. (It was Arab money that rescued Turkey due to Turkish opposition to Iraq invasion and that flotilla incident and before than PG-1 help in 1990s). Those external financing days are permanently over. Slow procurement is very obvious now.
Now only option is default or complete bending to Russia.
Since you are idiodically comparing Turkey with Israel; Turkey always had equal or better military budget than Israel.
Equal or better. on what way?. Israel is 4th largest exporter of military equipment. It is very obvious that they can afford high quality stuff at much lower rates for domestic use
-recieved domestic integrated combat module that control all ships weapons, provides sensor fusion, and ability to track 1000 targets at once.
-Link-16/22 integration which original O.H Perry lacked
-Open architecture for new domestic weapons
-8 cell Mk-41 VLS for ESSM, and an upgraded version of Mk-92 firecontrol system
-New Smart-S MK2 3d air search radar
-New sonar array.
1000 target tracks? You better build your own AWACS than waiting for 12 years for Boeing. It will take long training for efficient use of AEW and that is also based on small airframe and short range. not even effective.
2) Our older Meko 200 TN Track IIA ships had box launchers for Sea sparrow, they are now replaced with Mk41 VLS cells, and recieved firecontrol upgrades for ESSM capability.
3) All Type 209 1200 submarines recieved upgrades in 2001 Last two Type 209 1200 submarines recieved additional upgrades in 2011. They recieved Zeiss made periscopes, Raytheon made INS, Aseslan made ESM systems. and torpedo tubes will be replaced to be able to use most recent Mod6 variants of ADCAP torpedoes.
4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MILGEM_project
5) 4 Type-209 1400 were commissioned AFTER 2003; They are labeled T.2 1400 due to significant modifications, they are regarded as different class (G�r Class) from older 4 Type-209 1400 class submarines (Preveze class) present in Turkish Navy.I bothered to write this again, since you seem to be incapable of getting it the first time. If reality is different then what you believe, its your personal psycological problem. Greece has 1/3 of our military budget, and they have no problems operating 8 submarines as well.
you should be care full in using the word operating. No two countries operate in same way.
Largest and, most comprehensive tactical and cac excercise for Israeli Airforce was Anatolian Eagle, conducted in Turkey, in collabration with TuAF. Israel doesn’t have enough land to conduct excercises of that magnitude.
You don’t need large exercise for electronic attack. infact those large exercise are more pilot training. and there is nothing to learn anyway as both side are using the same F-16 and there no common live around use. when you don’t own factory of AAMs and but very small quanities of modern AAMs. the likely hood of using them in training is very low.
We have currently 2 AIP submarine laid down at G�lc�k shipyard, with all machinery and imported materials are already bought for all 6 in 2011. What’s the state of Lada, the Russian AIP submarine? It has fallen short of requirements and Russians still trying to patch it up to be usable. RIGHT!!. Without AIP, 636.3 is pretty comperable to 8 Type-209 1400 submarines in anyway you compare.
comparable to this and that without any evidence. AIP only enhance endurance. it does not add strike punch. infact Black Sea is merely lake. missile like Yakhont can cover all of it from land.
F-16’s feel a sense of insecurity… Yep with such big propellers -and four of them- immense speed and altitude and maneuverability will put F-16 to a shame. It doesn’t need AAMs, it looks are enough to bring F-16s down. It WAS a lone Il-20. At least make a google search of what I am posting. You wont pass as smart after such idiocy you posted, but at least you will look less stupid. Even if it was a Su-27, so close to Turkish borders its really not a threat to anything.
:sleeping: I gave up.
I mean there could be Flanker flying around at further distance. Flanker has long legs with longer range missile. any time it can come after those Short range old F-16s from very far distance. This short endurance fighters have this disadvantage of wasting a lot of imported fuel in takeoff and landing. Combat air patrol are better done with long endurance fighters like Su-27/MIG-31.
JSRI don’t think anyone with slightest brain activity would disagree about this analysis. However when we replace Navy A with “Russian Black Sea Fleet”, and Navy B with “Turkish Navy”, some people starting to blow gaskets, give bluescreens and immediately start Russia Strong!!! everything else is sh!t propoganda. Which starts to claim despite fewer and older ships, Navy A is turns out to be more modern and powerful, it has better economic situation despite every single evidence states otherwise etc etc etc.
first you cannot change the fact that you are budget is $10b only. you cannot possible train and maintain such large navy with so small budget. Procurment budget is slow to disburse and most of things are inducted pre 2003 which are obsolete if they are not upgraded by now.
so now its the commissioning date of vessels that define its capability and crew training. Israeli airforce in general has older planes and less powerfull engines. but it will smash any Arab or Turkish airforce in no time not matter how much is numerical quantity difference. Its all software, semiconductors and training difference.
Russia has updated 877 for IN navy and have developed 636.3 that Turkey cannot develop in its dreams. Just collecting money and experiance from Brahmos sales is far more than Turkish navy has spent on antiship missiles in past 15 years. This is just one weopon system development.
Turkish navy cannot even operate in black sea/Mediterrnean with shore based Russian Anti-ship missiles both in Black sea and in Syria. They are not inhibited by MTCR. range regulations.
Increased military presence and overreaction to Russian aircraft (ordinary intercepts of Russian aircraft is now carried by squadrons of 8 F-16’s (http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/25938882.asp) instead of sending single aircraft), are simply to show we are taking matters seriously. Not we are interested to get involved in a military conflict
8 planes is not overreaction but sense of insecurity. as those planes have lower top speed/altitude/weaker single engines/less range AAMs/less staying power so you need more of them at same time they must have seen some thing behind the survellence plane. Ruaf is now totally twin engine force with longest range AAMs and biggest electronic pods.
-Speaking of cars, you know, a 6 year old German car would still be in an extended guarantee :stupid: You will possibly be shocked that first unit of borei class was in trials for 5 years.
it will be in extended warranty but it will still need a lot of visits to shop. If Germans cannot make so less complex stuff like Cars compared to Subs reliable despite putting there best minds on that. there is little chance there small population will allow anything to excel in missile/sub technology.
what do you know about SSBN that putting time line on it.
JSRBecause this debate is about naval deployments in the Black Sea! Unless Russian ships are capable of flying bringing up the issue of Turkeys long range SAM procurement is not relevant!
Naval deployments cannot operate in isolation from overall budget.
Doesn’t change the fact that the A-50 upgrade uses Western origin chips due to their superiority according to the program manager from Beriev. Talk to him if you don’t agree.
A-50U of 2008 is not the same as A-50U of 2014. 6 years too long time. it is continuous improvement.
As do all cars, but we are talking about submarines here. Where is you evidence that they are not maintained properly? Where is you evidence that they are not updated regularly? Where is your evidence that their budget is not up to it? As for competing with the 636.6, my money is on the German submarines and the Turkish.
see there budgets. Not even India with much larger budget can afford updated submarines at this rate. unless you have some evidence of huge budget increase.
Says a man who thinks that widely spaced engines and a fuselage hump are critical for strike aircraft…Anyhow I was right about the helicopter deal, it was cancelled due to the rather dodgy nature of its negotiations. They later did proper open negotiations which I applaud, as I repeatedly say I have no problem them buying Russian. The Czechs could service the L159 order so I wan’t wrong about that, the L159 can be a LIFT for the F-16 so I was right about that. So not entirely sure where I am wrong. It was cancelled for financial reasons and question marks over the nature of the negotiations by Iraq. Again I applaud Iraq for sticking to their guns on that matter. They are now buying the T-50IQ.
It wasn’t cancelled for financial reason. Czech dependence on Euro based suppliers and lack of 40 years servicing practically rule it out.
By all means then pick with the Turkish in the Black Sea and see how it turns out if you are so confident.
see Syria example. Black sea fleet is very critical to throwing that million refuges into Turkey and Turkey losing face in Arab world. currency slide is related to that. There is practically no evidence Turkish deployment can stop BSF anywhere.
JSRNot relevant to this debate.
how is that not relevant to this debate. SAM is most important system and if there is no money on time for that there is very little likelyhood for anything else. infact they needed SAM yesterday. see the last minute request to NATO regarding Syria.
The head of the program to modernise the A-50 stated they almost exclusively used chips of Western origin, they might well of come out of Asian fabs…what they are not doing is using chips out of Russian fabs as they are not modern enough. Don’t like that take it up with Beriev.
It is not necessary that it is accurate information or the upgrade require using older chips as AWACS takes long time to certifiy due to substantial weight changed. chips used like in PAK-FA/Su-35 which are far advanced and compact are russian origin.
it says classified vast range boost.
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ain-defense-perspective/2013-09-06/russian-air-force-shows-upgraded-awacs-and-plans-new-one
http://www.ruaviation.com/news/2014/2/4/2156/
Russian air forces will take delivery of the third upgraded A-50U aircraf
Where did I say updated? I said modern and up to date, they have also ironically been updated over the years. The 209 and its sub variants are arguably some of the best SSK in the world. Certainly their new 214 will be up to date by every measurable metric, certainly more so then what the Black Sea Fleet operate.
You know when German car gets older it become very expensive to maintain. There is very little chance those subs are properly maintained and practically zero evidence of updating today. This thing is beyond Turkey operational budget. There is no chance they can compete with 636.3 as Russia best minds are in Subs not in automotive sector.
Fact is you are wrong pretty much on every single thing you state…so move on with that fact.
I was always right. see Czech/Irak L159 deal and helicopter deals. There is very little chance you can be right.
The Turkish are not equipped with largely obsolete equipment, a look at there Orbat knocks that silly idea on the head. The Turkish are regarded as a regional super power fielding modern equipment
Country is only regarded as regional superpower when some regional countries can fear it. They don’t meet that definition. Just look around.
infact IOC thrown there Olympic bid to 3rd or 4th place. They don’t believe in them of having own money.
SAMs, Helicopter, fighter, transport aircraft all those deals slow to implement and all of sudden there subs fleet modern.
JSRAhhh when caught out with your lack of knowledge fall back upon your old tactics of obfuscation and changing the subject!
The deal for Chinese SAMs have absolutely nothing to do with this discussion.
SAM is most important for defense if that cannot bought on time and also chosen the cheapest.
The AIM120C7 is one of the most modern variants of the AMRAAM and only just being supplemented by the AIM120D, it is still being updated and is the most advanced variant being offered for export to select US client nations. Others get offered the AIM120C5, Turkey getting the C7 shows they are the top table when it comes to US procurement. Also the argument that it is old based on the idea that the C7 development started ten years or more ago is absurd and yet again asinine. By the same argument I could say the Russian R73 is utterly obsolete considering it is based on an over thirty year old design, before you start spluttering to defend the honour of the R73 I should point out it is still very much one of the most capable air to air missiles in the world which like the AMRAAM has benefited from years of development and modernisation.Again an unrelated and nonsensical argument from you JSR.
I only mentioned that AIM-120C7 in 2005 will not be same as in 2014. Turkey does not indigenous R&D to continuously improve AAMs. R-73 now RVV-MD for export which itself will be downgrade version of Ruaf. this more effective combination.
Turkey operates Harpoon, Exocet, Popeye-1/2 and has an indiginous cruise missile program. They actually test fired their long range cruise missile over the Black Sea in 2011, if you bothered to actually do a bit of research you would know they do operate long range anti ship missiles, cruise missiles and are developing their own.
Its dysfunctional procurement of obsolete systems.
True their fighter fleet does not currently have an IRST that doesn’t change the fact that the fleet is large and modern and when they induct F-35 they will have that capability. Again an unrelated and nonsensical argument.
what is modern about that. At best mid 90s ability with mechanical scan radars. F-35 not coming to Turkey until 2025. by which time Black sea will be fundamentally changed.
As for the mighty Russian semi conductor industry you keep on bashing us on the head about, considering the Beriev A50 AWACS upgrade almost exclusively uses Western chips I think you are rather overstating things.
exclusively use western chips. At best they could be some commercial chips built in Asia and that development programme started more than a decade ago.
Just accept the fact that Turkey has modern up to date Submarines and leave us all in peace!
they are not updated. so move on with this fact.
JSRThat is all just your opinion, you are just showing you lack of knowledge yet again…that is at least consistent! Turkish defence R&D is by no means pitiful if you actually bothered to actually look into what they are up to.
They cannot finalize the that cheap SAM deal with China for past year. this very simple example. they bought some hundred AIM-120C7 missiles for such large airforce couple of years back. that missile is 10 year old technology. This kind of dysfunctional military cannot deliver shock and awe of new missiles from Russian factories. infact semi conductor and continuous software upgrades more important for kill chain from communication, survellence, missiles to electronic warfare.
The Turkish are not equipped with largely obsolete equipment, a look at there Orbat knocks that silly idea on the head. The Turkish are regarded as a regional super power fielding modern equipment. There submarine flotilla is modern, they have nearly 100 years experience operating submarines and access to superb training via NATO. As you have no idea what the quality of personnel in their submarine flotilla are just stating they probably have poor competency is yet again a comical example of your myopic “RUSSIA BEST” world view!
Nobody listens to your dubious economic lessons JSR, they only serve to amuse us.
It is not what is outside but what is inside that define effectiveness and efficiency of military system. There is no IRST in fighters. there is no advanced long range antiship and land attack cruise missile. fighters are weak single engine and no engine upgrades for 1980s and early 90s fighter.
now procurement has slow down to tickle. they can practically default in short moment. some predications are very obvious.
JSROh dear, where did you pluck that figure from JSR, not more of your fantasy economics? The Turkish defence budget for 2014 was set at USD 24.65 representing 3% of their GDP which is highly respectable. They are running their entire fleet of 14 modern diesel electric submarines and planning to induct another 6 even more advanced AIP examples. So they appear to be running them very easily on their very respectable defence budget.
Whilst I would agree their government is a bit dysfunctional as it stands it is a democracy nevertheless and your statement that they lack an industrial and scientific base is so laughably wrong I can barely keep a straight face whilst typing. Turkey has a rapidly growing scientific and industrial base, they have a defence industry which is confident enough to start exporting high end equipment globally. The TAI T129 is a technology integration project of a foreign design it is similar to contemporary helicopters judging their entire defence industry on the basis of that project which is by in large progressing well is asinine. Problems with the 737 AWACS lays at Boeings doors not the Turkish and I have no idea what you are going on about in respect of the Mig-31.
You might think the Turkish have limited rights in the Black Sea doesn’t mean they have to agree with you. Their submarine flotilla would be highly dangerous if it wanted to be.
in today devalued currency it barely touches $10b. defence procurement get extra funds but those procurements are so slow that it cannot make budget double. very pitfulll R&D so it means they cannot continuously improve there import based weopons. practically every thing is obsolete. add that low salaries and high inflation the competency of recruits operating subs will be questionable.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnists/lale-kemal_340680-turkeys-defense-budget-in-line-with-growth-rate.html
According to NATO’s data, Turkish defense spending for 2013 was TL 27.2 billion. But the Turkish Finance Ministry disclosed this figure as TL 20.3 billion. The defense budget has, in the meantime, risen to TL 21.8 billion for 2014, marking a 7.1 percent increase, according to Finance Ministry data in November last year.The majority of these allocations are not transparent — including a fund for arms procurement by the Undersecretariat for the Defense Industry (SSM).
They are only assembling low end foreign license based equipment to Nato countries where defence industries continuously shrink. infact whole GDP is loan and investement based that will soon be called up.
JSRit does not change the fact they have paltry total defence budget of $11b. you cannot run complex sub operations with this budget. on top of that dysfunctional government and complete lack of any industrtial/scienfic skills that can implement real time improvements to sub operations in particular area. what great innvotions implemented to T-129 chopper in past 8 years that make it even remotely competitive to best in class. Extremely slow procurement over 12 years to get 737 AWACS whose engines weaker than MIG-31.
The only reason barrel bombs are not droping on them is there huge import of gas at this point. which they may not be able to afford. They simply don’t have same rights in Black Sea.
JSRDid Turkey develop those subs. what is training competence of crew and the leadership quality. Turkey cant do anything but pretend to be present in black sea so it can get discounted weopons & aid from west/arab countries until this point.
infact Turkish state is lucky that it is consuming as much imported gas as Germany.
JSRThere are a lot of aviation plants that can increase operational readiness of Ruaf.
http://www.janes.com/article/34901/ukrainian-defence-industry-unaffected-by-crisis-with-russia
JSRI wouldn’t worry about Boeing. They are an innovative bunch with deep pockets, thanks to their commercial airlines business. It takes money to win new contracts and Boeing has plenty of it.
Boeing has yet to make profits on 787. I doubt profits enough to design a new fighter. profits are just enough for share holder and keep improvements to civil airlines. I would even say that boeing may not experience left for new fighter design.
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