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JSR

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  • in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2249371
    JSR
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Vnomad;2113494]Despite Current Downturn, Long-Term Growth Prospects for India bright – World Bank
    the report cannot even forecast correctly current year growth let alone some thing long term. better to discard it. I am am not even going into bogus inflation created growth.

    According to the Update, a twice-yearly report on the Indian economy and its prospects, economic growth is likely to accelerate to over 6.0% during the current financial year (April 2013-March 2014).

    At the current growth rates, the Indian MoD has about $100 billion to spend on capital acquisitions till the end of the decade.

    there is no chance of it. even best of times 2000 to 2014. it barely touches $40b on distributions.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2249447
    JSR
    Participant

    and here comes JSR from his dreamland… I was wondering when you’d pop up…

    I never in dream land

    Just one jewel:

    initially planned to be introduced in the 1990’s as a nuclear vector.

    question 1:

    what conflicts you fight with nuclear weapons if not major ones?

    Answer #1. Rafale was designed against lower real per capita income Soviet Union. It was never designed against higher per capita Russia. Russia tremendous wealth enables it to buy the best of industrial machinery and highest caliber software developers. there are multi trillion dollar of investments behind this civilian technology in past two decades. on top of that Russians have real world experience in some of the best funded east Asian semiconductor companies. Rafale and the developers behind it never had in there imagination this level of funding behind it and on top of that practicall none exports. Just AL-31 engines exports crosses over 3000 mark. you have to look at big picture of industrial chain investment.

    question 2:

    In France, even relatively cheap fighters developed in the 1950’s like the Mirage III remained in service for a good 30 years. For how long do you think they planned to keep a costly platform like the Rafale?

    answer# 2.that was in past simplified fighters with limited supply chain. Rafale will increasingly depended on imported components as supply chain gets bankrupt.

    A combat aircraft planned to serve as a frontline fighter and nuclear vector until 2040 at least is hardly a “never designed for 21th century major war” aircraft, don’t you think? Unless the French deciders had a crystal ball proving that there won’t be a major conflict at least until 2050, that is..

    in front line of airforce that will become second tier relative to even to IDF (F-35 ordered, AESA AWACS) and RSAF . French has totally lost futuristic combat potential that’s why you will see these Rafale mostly in deserts of Africa.
    Rafale is short range, low speed, low altitude fighter, weak engines relative to 1980s MIG-31BM.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2250314
    JSR
    Participant

    Sorry, but your argument goes against you: towards India, it is Dassault that is THE proven vendor, not Russians which you had to struggle with to get what you paid for

    There are more MKI flying in IAF than Dassualt have Rafales. there is huge delay and over price in French Subs for IN.
    Dassualt is never a proven vendor. It is just media planted stories. there is very good example of Dassault record in Taiwanese airforce.

    Tell that to Serbs, Russia was “their greatest ally”, their “brothers”, not just some “vendor”, yet, when NATO decided to bomb them, Russia was nowhere to be found, except for a few voluntary boots on the ground

    it is not 1990s. Russia has proven ally of Syria while France is pretty much own by Arabs. see Libya war example and the losses to India due to Libya conflict.
    infact in less than 10 years there wont be single French company without Arab ownership. EADS will be totally dependent on Arabian airlines cash flow. There is no way France can stand with India if India is conflict with Islamist country.
    I would even estimate that with deployment of S500 missile system the small nuclear arsenal of France will become redundant. There is no large scale procurement in domestic for Dassualt that it can even think about funding next generation technologies.

    Nice try, but your answer is beside the point and wrong at the same time, first, what Rafale’s major role underlines is that it is designed to be able to face pretty much anything you’ll find as air defense, regardless what country you put in front of it.

    Rafale is never designed for 21st century major war. It is obsolete 1980s concept.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2251229
    JSR
    Participant

    If I had any respect for you, your skepticism might have carried some weight. If you want to find a source for the fact that over 50% of China’s crude import comes from the Middle East, use this wonderful tool.

    these figures have the same reliability as China defence budget of less than $150b. as I said China has deep contempt for its so called 50% crude import partners.

    As if the enemy will have only one asset situated exactly at 12 o’clock to the aircraft. :rolleyes:

    PAK-FA is the highest kinematic fighter with TVC turning ability. in net centric environment with long range ground, ship and space based radars. I don’t think it has to worry anything from behind.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2251238
    JSR
    Participant

    I don’t ‘fully understand’ it because its utter bilge. About 50% of China’s crude is still shipped in from the Middle East. And only a portion of it is covered under long term supply contracts, which means the annual increment in demand does impact the global price of crude.

    50% of crude. whose figure is that. certainly not Chinese government. I am very skeptical about this numbers. China largest investment funds in Venzuela. and China does not give that much importance to plight of Arabs. see Syria.

    Indeed. Thanks to ‘super SAM 2020’ and ultra-long range AAMs, even frontal stealth isn’t needed… in your parallel universe.

    frontal stealth necessary as your going towards the target.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2252172
    JSR
    Participant

    And piped crude doesn’t have to be paid for, huh? And you think (relatively) low global oil prices will result in high profitability for an oil company?

    you don’t fully understand this Chinese upfront payments and there long term contracts. China has very little impact on crude prices.

    Will the war come to a halt while it returns to base? Do you think it can outrun a Mach 4 missile?

    those who can afford PAK-FA can also afford long range super SAMs 2020 around major airbases. There is no chance of any one getting into returning fighters. other fighters simply don’t have the fuel to reach such base. and PAK-fA is expected to have the highest altitude and speed with longest AAMs so any chance of AWACs in the area is minimal.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2252659
    JSR
    Participant

    And when the aircraft has to return to base, do you put it in reverse or does call-sign ‘JSR’ do a circumnavigation of the Earth?

    if it is returning why it has to worry about signature. it has the longest range and tail chase engagement are highly unlikely due to limitation of missile ranges.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2252661
    JSR
    Participant

    – Consumption in China, the biggest importer of crude in the world, has ‘nothing to do’ with oil prices?
    – Middle East with a population of just 350M and a ‘dysfunctional economy’ will consume all of its oil production domestically?
    – Shale oil is a futuristic energy source not relevant to current prices? (This despite the US already becoming the largest producer of hydrocarbons in the world, and set to be the largest producer of crude by 2015).

    The real question is, do you not know you sound stupid, or do you know and decide to speak up anyway?

    Or do you teach a class on trolling, with this just being a case-study for Monday morning’s lecture?

    China is getting pipeline gas and oil and it imported oil is very small portion of energy mix. any boom that reduce profits is not a boom.

    http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/BP-Expects-Shale-Boom-in-Russia-and-S.-America-to-Cause-Problems-for-Middle-East.html
    BP predicts that energy production in the Middle East will grow by 37% by 2015, but that consumption will grow by 77%. This will reduce the oil export capacity to just 66% of production volume, down from a current 72%
    The region is expected to become the largest consumer of liquids per capita, surpassing North America.
    By 2035, the region will consume over three times the liquids per person than the global average.”

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2253011
    JSR
    Participant

    Ordinarily I don’t mind minor spelling mistakes or grammatical errors as long as the sentence makes sense. ^ this sentence on the other hand makes no sense at all.

    These factors are utterly meaningless. They’re probably the first thing that came up when you googled it.

    FYI, the factors that would really matter are the

    a) growth rates in emerging economies, particularly China
    b) production increment
    – Iran & Iraq exports
    – Shale oil revolution

    It has nothing to do with China. it is explosion in population in middleast with dsysfunctional economies and unemployable that most of Oil will be consumed domestically nothing left for exports. shale oil will only survive for long term when prices rises. otherwise you can see the falling profits. Pluse $800b in Russia procurement will have very negative impact on middleast politics.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2253053
    JSR
    Participant

    That intake is basically like employing a 4th gen hash up … the super hornet technique. Why use a partial attempt to hide engine blades?

    Raptor would be detected at a lesser range from its rear…. and thats what counts.

    PakFa is a half-a$$ed job at stealth. Its about time PakFa fans get back to reality.

    Pakfa will be flying higher faster and higher than anything else. there is no way any fighter can be behind it as all fighters will be flying below it. improvement in IRST technology means you cannot reduce from rear at all.

    in reply to: The PAK-FA News, Pics & Debate Thread XXIV #2253214
    JSR
    Participant

    Right there in the translated paragraph, in its own parentheses as shown below (separated from the 40W low band HEMT which is in its own parentheses). The translator’s right on the money and hasn’t screwed up the location of the brackets. I supposed the translator mixed up the words output power and meant to actually display average power right? even though I pointed out the undisputable FACT that average power is not a value used to describe an amplifier component unless its given context by also stating output power (peak) or other data indicating duty cycle.

    BTW to respond to your incessant bleating of “conservative” values of 10% for duty cycle. A “conservative” value is actually 100% for jamming modes. So unless you have the number or the other required variables, do your credibility a favour and stop desperately quoting it.

    “( frequency range 9-10 GHz, phased reshegshhch M / gain 13 LB ; output power 38 dBm
    )”

    As long as Russia is reliant on legacy foreign production equipment and US TRM control modules (as evident with the Altera (US) controller in the Zhuk AE TRM shown below), the answer to “How long do you think the broader “technology gap” will last” is infinitely.

    How’s Russia going with its 0.007 micron processor development?

    Zhuk AE TRM
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]225284[/ATTACH]

    …that’s where that account got to :eagerness:

    Zhuk AE is MIG private venture for India MMRCA. so the cheapest route for components.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2253373
    JSR
    Participant

    I’m not sure what the source of that graph is but the US crude is currently fluctuating around $95/barrel as of 2014. Even assuming the global economy improves, with increasing exports from Iran and Iraq, the price is likely to stay steady around $100/bl. Its certainly not going to quadruple before 2020.

    it is fluctuating at this price because of over investment in past companies were hoping 2008 price spike. It may not quadruple but it will go up. there is also other factors

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/business/fourth-quarter-earnings-fall-at-exxon-mobil-and-shell.html?_r=0
    http://www.rttnews.com/2261358/chevron-q4-profit-falls-quick-facts.aspx

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2253376
    JSR
    Participant

    You do realize Rafale is compatible with NATO standards? It is not limited to propriety, rather the French choose to operate propriety. Their propriety is not NATO standard although ordinances like MICA can be integrated into other approved systems since they are Eurocentric in ownership.

    An M2K is not compitable with NATO standards that needed expensive MICA for IAF. there is Eurofighter that has price dispute for past 4 years in major export country and I believe Meteor hasn’t been exported yet.

    in reply to: India- PAK-FA or Rafale??? #2253378
    JSR
    Participant

    Right now PAK FA is at the same stage of development as Rafale in 1993 (~500 test flights).

    500 test flights were last summer. now it will be closer to 1000. and 2000 test flights needed. I believe by next year it will closer to operational delivery for Ruaf. that will test it for next 2 years.

    And that’s being generous (not counting tests of the Rafale A demonstrator)…

    various subsystems of PAK-FA are tested on other aircrafts. beside supercomputers and manufacturing has become way advanced than early 90s and budgets and technical manpower behind PAK-FA is way bigger and more effective. Sukhoi needed just 4 Superjet prototypes to certify SSJ.

    So what’s a realistic FOC date for a couple of PAK FA squadrons, manufactured in India? 2025? Probably no sooner.

    India can neither afford nor manufacture PAK-FA.

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2253718
    JSR
    Participant

    Possibly. Then again, the FGFA order cut from 244 to 144, suggests that the IAF is trying to step back from the program to a less committed position. The FGFA today is a straight-up PAK FA acquisition (with slight customization). But its public position of being committed to the FGFA, effectively ties the hands of the Indian negotiators. Creating some space would give them some badly needed leverage while negotiating with the Russians over cost and technology.

    order cut means that they cannot afford 244 FGFA. which was very unrealistic number. They simply cannot have any leverage.

Viewing 15 posts - 2,731 through 2,745 (of 4,319 total)