JSRWith all do respect I am not sure Russia can afford the PAK-FA without India!
I am 100% sure Russia can afford not only PAK-FA but PAK-DA and heavy UCAV all before 2020.
As for the countries you listed. Like a said a few small order over a period of time. Nothing on a large scale except Russia and India…….
I consider any export order larger than 100 as large. as 5G fighters are too expensive to maintian. Only the resources on scale available to Iran, Kazakhistan, Iraq, Turkeminstan can afford it. next 10 years will prove this point.
Declining North Sea fields will ensure that EU continue to import large sum of Oil & Gas.
http://www.tnp.no/norway/economy/3483-norway-expects-a-decrease-in-oil-production-in-2013
BTW Your comment of the performance bar and range of the F-35 is well laughable. I doubt the Chinese view is anything close to yours.
Respectfully,
Scooter
Chinese is close to mine. thats why they are working on aircraft based on MIG-1.42. that airplanes was designed to deal with 1990s threat. Russia also offered 5G fighter development to China.
JSROk, who do you see as a potential PAK-FA customer that could afford to purchase a respectable number of aircraft???
First thing is there is no cost pressure on PAK-FA. Russia can afford all the PAK-FA built. second If Russa really need PAK-FA to export it can create customers. so i am not sure whats big deal about PAK-FA export.
one of large possible customer is country like Iran. Ruaf delegation spent 4 days there.
Enhancing culture ties with that country means down grading culture of Arabic/Turkish world. that has big meaning.
http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/2200884.html
The have huge Gas & Oil reserves . world will need those reserves at reasonable price in less than 10 years. just like world is running towards Iraqi reserves today.
Algeria is another potential customer.
http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?pg=3&id=453780
Countries like Kazakhistan are also getting very wealthy rapidly. they will be able to afford more PAK-FAs than Norway can afford F-35.
Iraq is also canidate down the line post 2025 period.
I will rule out countries like Belarus/Syria. Ruaf can open its own airbase if there is need for that.
Brazil is not ideal canidate despite Russian pushing exports there.
China may not want to import PAK-FA to keep face of its aviation industry. The performance bar and range of F-35 is so low in China context that there is less incentive for China to import some thing like PAK-FA to counter it.
JSRNo reason not to include other AAMs like IRIS T, ASRAAM, Python 5, A darter, AAM-5, PL-10.
These have small production run relative to AIM-9X and R-73. so it is highly unlikely the amount of R&D spent is on same level
JSRLike who??? I could see countries like Vietnam. Yet, just like the Flanker it would be small batches over a extended period of time. Really, many countries that would likely be interested in the PAK-FA couldn’t afford the $100 Million Price Tag.
Which, is not to say it’s likely to be a failure. As Russia and India combined will likely purchase a few hundred. Yet, beyond that I personally have my doubts???
PAK-FA has alot of export potential. as Asia consumes more natural resources more money will go into the pocket of Middleast/North African countries. export is the last thing they worried about at this point.
JSRDid he really post that? He thinks Russia has a bigger GDP than the EU – & therefore the biggest economy in the world, bigger than that of the USA? That implies he thinks Russia’s GDP per head is more than 3.5 times that of the EU, & more than 2.5 times that of the USA.
He’s a loony.
Again second time wrong. I didnot think but have solid calculation. GDP is directly related to the size of productive land under control. Now it could include water, natural resource or transport route Air, land and sea. when $20b invested into Validivostock the middle class apartment prices went to western cities level. It is called effectivness of investment. If Russia is investing $700b into weopons procurement it does not mean that EU can spare $700b for that purpose as GDP is effectively either foreign money or debt. and with ineffective R&D, slow release of money and project management. every complex project costs ballon so end GDP looks bigger but end product is far less effective. There is no consideration for independence. (see the amount of US/Korean/Japanese) content in EU aviation products.
JSRWhen Saddam was in power it was backed up by Saudi and Gulf arabs. now the elected government have totally opposite interests than gulf arabs. that is now history.
Practically zero chance of any Rafale and EF in Iraq. infact declining production rates of Rafale/EF will rule out also. See Oman example it is getting its EF 5 years after signing. Price dispute of EF contract with Saudis. If EF consortium cannot solve price dispute with such long term customer how they can even initiate negotiation with Iraq.
Iraq needs weopons delivery fast.
JSRI think Iraq is big market.
http://povesham.com/baghdad-wants-to-expand-military-cooperation-with-moscow-iraqi-mps
For deterrent they need strong airdefence systems. and Strike weopons like Iskander/Smerch.
Russia has very limited export capacity due to Ruaf rearmament at the moment. short term is to give airbase in South and North of Iraq to Ruaf untill Iragi airforce is proficient over long term in combined training.
JSRShia Islam isn’t inherently or traditionally anti-western, or more so than Sunni Islam. They’re influenced by local factors. Afghan Shias, for example, are strongly anti-Taliban so may be more co-operative with NATO than some Sunni Afghans. In Iran, Shia Islam is tied up with Iranian nationalism, & anti-US & anti-British attitudes conditioned by the support those countries gave Reza Pahlavi, including overthrowing an elected government & handing him power in the 1950s. That’s not ideological.
It is the Suadi funded nuclear weopon blast near to Iran borders. and this events that created widening gulf between Iran and West. it has nothing to do with some thing happened in 1950s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Iranian_diplomats_murder_in_Afghanistan
JSRWow!
:very_drunk:
Post of the year? :confused:
I think you can safely side step this graph. $2T is GDP of India. Just look around what India can afford compared to Russia. You can start with Railways & Metro lines expenditure. than go towards Aviation services & sporting events (aka University games). Just go line by line with each item. You will get very good pattern of money. so Russia cannot have $2T GDP by same measurement. Military/Energy expenditure comparision is too loop sided.
EU simply dont have the GDP. All it can do is either borrow or sell assets/Products to Arab/Chinese to such extent that in most cases they are now monoply buyers.
EU only austerity. Practically no budget for rearmament. No money for mass mobilization training.
http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/53648/opinion-zapad-2013-observations-and-perspectives-201353648/
when your GDP is negatively impacted with such limited war it means you dont have real GDP.
http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/21/what-war-in-libya-tells-europe/5zri
The economic crisis has only exacerbated Europe�s unwillingness to live up to its grand ambitions to play a global role in foreign and defense matters. The biting complaints of former U.S. defense secretary Robert Gates about the fading of Europe and a �dim if not dismal future�� for an increasingly �irrelevant� Alliance were only an echo, if said more harshly, of similar speeches that many NATO secretary-generals have made before him.
JSRSome of the facts you have presented are misleading if not completely wrong – Russia does not have the largest economy in Europe at all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
Russia not only has larger economy than Germany but Russia economy is larger than whole of EU. These statistics dont take into account foreign money and foreign protection.(US military power) ( opportunity costs).
You can start with foreign ownerships in real estate and money in banks and there critical importance to keep EU afloat.
I am not going to enumerate individual companies like EADS/BAE overexposure to Middleast.
Russia has created a investment fund so money goes into the pool and not ownership of hard assets to minimize foreign influence.
http://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2338779&language=en
On the topic of Kuwaiti investments in Russia, Sheikh Sabah told the news channel that Kuwait gave that topic great importance, noting that Kuwait contributed USD 500 million to the Russian Investment Fund.
Russia will be able to create air and sea embargo on Middleast in near future and Arabs are already noticing that trend. This will ensure large scale liquid wealth transfer to Russian banks and creation of Rouble as 2nd reserve currency.
On top of that fifth generation defence network (hypersonic & space defence) will completely neutralize that small nuclear delivery in EU. Military might is very essential for maintianing real prosperity and influence.
JSRIndian rupee has depreciated considerably against $US and Euro since January 2012 (15%-20%) so if the cost was estimated at $US 20bn (100 billion Indian rupees) then more Indian Rupees are required to buy the same number of $US. Rate 01/01/2012: 1 rupee = $US 0.20 ; rate October 2013: 1 rupee = $US 0.163
http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/
Will the Finance Ministry hold this up still further?
Dassualt will consider Euro cost. from Janauary 2012 Rafale L1 to now there is 19% depreciation of Indian rupee
but bigger factor is what ever pricing Dassualt was thinking in 2007 to 2011 period will no longer be valid. first Dassualt hasnt achived any export success so no produciton ramp up and French are decreasing procurement. these things have long lead times. so totally new price of Rafale for India.
infact this prolong negotiation will have even negative impact on EF/F-18E as there produciton slows down so they will not be even in position to go back to the prices already submitted to MMRCA.
JSRActually Brazil is richer than Russia, yep yep.
Don’t forget, Pak-fa is already exported to India.
US experts already analyzing every aspect of Russian aircraft, even in Russia itself. See US spies and Su-34 scandal.
Actually Brazil is very poor country relative to Russia.
Brazilian government has delusional statistics. add to that non scientific investments and dysfunctional slow spending. It is recipe for failure.
Russia is exploiting every weakness in EU/China to squeeze last drop of money. Brazil simply cant react so fast.
http://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/Article/3208204/Flood-of-Russian-diesel-puts-European-refiners-under-pressure.html
Flood of Russian diesel puts European refiners under pressure
Many refineries in Europe were built decades ago and are geared toward producing more gasoline, rather than more-economical diesel, for which there is now higher demand.
JSRWell i was focusing on the 2020 time frame only for which there are more or less some figures available to work with, not after, and i’ve tried to get my figures from articles and reliable enough news as i pointed out, i didn’t wanted to make numbers out of this air. Obviously T-50 will be in production well after 2020 too, but speculating how many will be bought in total is difficult.
Regarding numbers , i think the most quoted figures BY 2020 ONLY is 600 aircraft of all types (including transports, trainers etc), and over 1000 helicopters. There will be of course more aircraft and helicopters ordered after 2020.
More than 600 is always for new fighter planes by 2020. It never included trainer/transports etc. now this new link that i posted previously gives 1015 aviation complexes. that may include all other types.
JSRIraq is not seen as a “threat” to Iran by Russia. Iraqis are playing the “neutral” game… whether that game is viable in the long run, is questionable.. but for now Iraqis are content not taking “sides”.
so you dont see neutrality a problem in 21st century middleast. No one will trust you with advanced weopons and certainly no one will stand with you. do you see Saudi neutral.
Iran will eventually buy modern armaments… no question about it. Iraq will just need to have a powerful enough military to deter them from making any “thoughts”. For that, once again a powerful air defence system, good interceptors with early warning assets and some long range anti ship missiles are essential.
modern weopons will not make a difference. Iraq simply dont have that internal cohesion nor it is willing to create it
JSRI
2. New built aircraft:
Su-27SM3- 12, all delivered, plus possibly 12-24 more (for one unit in Belarus and one unit in the SMD)?
Su-30M2- 4 delivered plus 16 more.
Su-35S- 48 (about 10 delivered?), plus another 48 planned.
Su-30SM- 60, plus another 30 planned.
Su-34- 124 (about 29 delivered?).
MiG-29SMT/UBT- 28+6 all delivered, plus 16 then about 20 planned?
MiG-35S- 24-48 planned?
MiG-29K/KUB- 24
Su-25UBM- 16?
T-50- 60-70 planned initially.
Yak-130- 67 plus 30 planned.
I am not sure why PAK-FA number is 60. once it enter serial production in 2016 by that time industrial capacity will be developed for large yearly production.
Each year the claim for larger buys grows (2000 in total). so excluding helicopters. it is 1015 aircraft. So you exclude 100 transport/AWACS/Tanker/special mission.
it still leaves 915 aircraft. now exclude 200 Yak-130 trainers. 715 combat aircraft still left. which gives 250 to 300 number for PAK-FA.
http://www.russianhelicopters.aero/en/press/publications/4000.html
By the end of 2020, we expect to receive about 2,000 new aviation complexes, including 985 helicopters, from Russian enterprises
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