JSRI would say statistics in Iraq are still horrendous 😉 in fact because the government doesn’t collect much in the way of taxes, there’s not much incentive by the finance ministry and CBI to keep an accurate track of the private sector which is BOOMING massively (I would say far more than government sector because the main oil infrastructure improvements won’t kick in for another 2-3 years)… since the government doesn’t borrow on the international market, it has no need to “please” the “credit rating agencies” and so Iraq’s economy continues to grow without many people knowing about it (except the ones dealing with / selling to Iraq).
anyway. I don’t see typhoons OR J10Bs being sold to Iraq any time soon. 😀 Rather hoping for some SU35s and maybe SU25SM to go with the MiG35s though 😀
what happened to Czech trainer deal?
You also have to consider clock is ticking on Iran sanctions. Depending on pace of Russia procurement and training. Russia will be able to impose its own solution on Iran talks.
http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/2199116.html
Lavrov: 6-9 months enough to find solution on Iran nuclear program
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Russia-blasts-Saudi-Arabia-for-refusing-UN-Security-Council-seat-329113
Russia slams Saudi Arabia for refusing UN Security Council membership
The point is its arms race at full speed. Iraq procurement is too slow and short range weopons. It will lose that short term importance to Iran.
JSRThat’s alot of money there. Surely if they want to they can easily reach the minimum 200 fighters (though imo they need 300 at least to be equal to KSA and Turkey).
36 F-16, 72 Su-30 and/or Su-35, 72 MiG-35 and 36 KAI T-50 plus 6-8 advanced AEWs can easily be achieved!
Imo, the french and the british must be mad for making crap offers to a potentially very important future customer like Iraq, but i guess their governments are in the hands of US, even if it means BILLIONS lost for their own countries’ defence industry. (same like the Egypt story, the french were not INTERESTED to offer the Rafale to them! Are they nuts or what?)
They can get all the stuff that they need and is refused by the yanks, and China can start becoming an important weapons supplier by delivering and array of UAVs (refused by the americans) to help against the terrorist threat. This, IF there is the will and foresight in the iraqi leadership. I’m just hoping the russians won’t cave in to whatever pressure and /or empty promises the yanks, saudis, turks, israelis will put on them like with Iran, that would be a bummer…
In Middleast it is not enough to sell weopons (those weopons are too complicated anyway with long training) but rather standing up with allies more important. see Syria & Iran example where not much advanced weopons delivered in quantities.
http://en.apa.az/xeber_russia_deploying_offensive_military_vehi_200739.html
Russia deploying offensive military vehicles in territories around Caspian Sea and Black Sea
China simply not commited to stand up with allies in Middlest. so large scale export of Chinese weopons can be ruled out.
Turkey buying HQ-9 is a erratic decision showing displeasure.
JSRThe MMRCA flight trials were carried to verify advertised performance and therefore bolster fair competition. The same doesn’t apply to a non-competitive contract for product that’s not in production, as in the case of the PAKFA. And FYI, flight testing is a matter of a few weeks plus perhaps a few more to take care of logistics.
It is not just trials but actual weopon and AESA trials and it went over years. by January 2011 Russian new the selection thats why MIG-35 pulled out from Aero India. so it is almost 3 years and you still havent signed the contract. There is no such thing as competition in 5G fighters as they are unique.
Produce evidence supporting that. Your ‘evidence’ so far has only managed to demolish your own argument (well done!). 😀
I always blostereed by evidence. Japanese are in LRIP 8 for only 4 aircraft order. There is no such thing as creating customized Japanese fighter for those 4 planes.
Prove that China will not persist with a ‘pseudo 5G fighter’.
China can persist with pseudo 5G fighter but it does not mean they will not look for imports once PAK-FA is certified. infact looking at Chinese health care and aging population burden. There is no way they can afford money wasted on expensive avaition projects. They have yet to repay train system debts.
The Su-30, Hawk and YAK-130 have nothing to do with the discussion.
It has every thing to do with discussion. It shows India failed efforts. 5G fighter is too complex. i am not sure why this insistence on technical access.
Then the IAF should go for the F-35. I’m glad to see such an… accommodating view from you.
I always think F-35 is best solution for IAF. It is cheaper to buy & operate than twin engine fighter.
^^ Lots of allusions. Zero specifics. Produce evidence of the Russian order of 550-800 PAKFAs i.e. ‘several times larger’.
Evidence are very clear you have to look around how much stuff Ruaf is buying yearly. There is no reason to doubt PAK-FA figures in multiple of IAF.
Now you’re claiming that the F-35 order will be reduced. In any case, the only fighter in production for the USAF, USN and USMC for the next 25 years will be the F-35.
It wont matter if they are buying 30 to 40 a year. It will still long time for reaching F-18/F-15/F-16 numbers.
Air forces, leading or otherwise, don’t manufacture aircraft, 4G or otherwise. That should be obvious to even someone like you.
i am curious how they become leading. what is the criteria of leading airforce.
The F-18E was passed over for the MMRCA after an open competition. The decision to acquire the PAKFA/FGFA like most contracts to Russia that preceded it, was made on a non-competitive basis without an intensive evaluation of other solutions. But if the industrial package is minimal and given the affordability issues that you’ve raised, the F-35 will require much closer scrutiny as a possible alternative.
F-18E/EA-18G are good enough for USN for next 40 years. It was you brought that some thing good enough for USN/USAF should be good enough for IAF.
Industrial package is always minimal . as there is simply no technical capacity & financial ability to keep up with advancements.
JSRProduction rates are finally moving up.
JSRIraq will need more robust air force and airdefence. But first is training and equiping ground forces. They are going for 10 mbd oil. Sufficient to fund it.
http://en.aswataliraq.info/(S(wih2as55da1ljw55pusbgw55))/Default1.aspx?page=article_page&id=154436
JSROrder in 2017 and delivery 3 years later equals no earlier than 2022. Bravo!
order in 2017 only possible when flight trials and all related data is completed before that. which is not possible. look at Rafale time line.
Oh please :rolleyes:. Your article clearly states that the long lead contract for Japanese aircraft to be delivered in 2016, was awarded in 2013.
They are part of larger LRIP 8. if there was no LRIP 8 or Japanese order much larger than LRIP 8 than Japanese would have to wait many years more.
I did not ask you about the Chinese aviation industry. I asked you to produce evidence about the J-20/31 being an expendable program. (Hint: F-22; arguably expendable, F-35; not expendable. JF-17; expendable, J-10; not expendable).
They are expendable because they cannot become true 5G fighters. F-22 is not expendable as it involove enormous cost of R&D and maintaining it. There isnt much investment in JF-17. It does not even have domestic engine.
You claim that there will no/minimal technology transfer. Its yet to be substantiated by the folks who actually run UAC/Sukhoi. And on the same note, India has no obligation to buy the PAKFA either.
Ok so what kind of technology transferred happened in SU-30 or Hawk Trainer. incase of Hawk Trainer licensing should have helped in building basic and intermediate trainer. Key advantage of Yak-130 is easy to fly. so no need of basic and intermediate trainers.
http://www.uacrussia.ru/en/models/military/yak-130/
Yak-130 combat trainer can cover up to 80% of the entire pilot flight training program. It can simulate management algorithms of all modern fighters
I asked evidence about requested/prospective production rate for the PAKFA being unaffordable. Not irrelevant ranting. Unless the implication was that India should go for the F-35, since its more ‘affordable’.
F-35 is clearly more affordable thats what i stated. PAK-FA is well beyond IAF budgets at this point of time.
Mighty soothsayer, are you? Back in 2007, based on ‘past 5 year orders’ you must have been extra polate (ing) that Russia will never order another aircraft till 2027. Produce concrete evidence about Russian being ‘several times larger’ i.e. 550-800 PAKFAs.
Going back to 2007 there was plenty of evidence of Russia buying lots of aircraft in future. India just tom tom too much of buying this and that without signing or putting time period on that.. for example from 2007 evidence was clearly emerging that Yak-130 production will move to Irkut and engines to Salut. This is indication of large scale stable orders. in 2007 indication were clear of moving IL-476 production in digital format. so this is another indication of large scale orders. in 2007 indications were clear that Boeing and VSMPO. large scale titanium deals and Boeing engineering research center. (Russia will not allow its technical force for such projects unless there is dual benefit for its own industry/products). i can go over alot of things including largest composite making factory. these are simple facts of investments that will lead to orders in later years. PAK-FA orders will be several times larger as time progress and 4.5G fighters goes out of production.
I did not bring up UCAV, LRSB, F-15/16/18/22 maintenance or the cost of F-35. Nor was it relevant to the debate. Of course that never stops you from going off on a tangent.
They are not irrelevant as these things are decreasing importance of F-35 so less money available for F-35 production.
The point was that the F-35 is good enough to form the core of the USAF and USN, not mention 10 other leading air forces. The IAF/IN can live with an ‘indecisive’ 5G fighter, even one doesn’t meet your personal standards. The PAKFA is favoured because of the industrial/technology package currently under negotiation.
10 other leading airforces? what criteria are they leading. Most of them cannot even make a 4G fighter by themseleves. let alone anything with TVC.
F-18E is also good enough for USN for next 40 years. so why didnot India select that one. F-35 cannot become core untill it is more numerous in numbers than F-18E. India is very far away from PAKFA industrial/technological package. Your simply not even participating in development or flight tests.
JSRIt is not confusing. only outdated method of including R&D and procurement into defense budget. R&D has dual benefits and so is production from titanium to carbon composites.
Defense budget strictly for salaries, training, maintainance, exercises etc.
You don’t want put budget for large scale attending in airshows like Paris, MAKS, Dubai, LIMA etc into defense budget either.
http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/86711616/largest-aero-composite-materials-plant-russia-europe-open-ulyanovsk-governor
Largest aero composite materials plant in Russia, Europe to open in Ulyanovsk – governor
JSRBAE forecast every quarter Saudi contract. it is the longest negotiation.
JSRTwo years is hardly a huge period. And flight testing is at most a question of six months.
and you think PAK-FA negotiation that even not started will not take 2 years?. You haven’t even flight tested the system. At best you can hope for signing for operational aircraft in post 2017 period. and delivery 3 to 4 years later. it is simply not possible to get operational export PAK-FA before 2022.
There’s no weaseling out this one. You punctured your own argument with your link, which proved that the lead time for a 5 gen fighter was not significantly different from a 4.5 gen aircraft.
Japanese 4 aircraft order is part of larger LRIP 8 production cycle. you think lead items for LRIP are not started before Japanese order?
I asked for evidence of J-20 and J-31 being expendable programs, not pointless conjecture.
Evidence is state of Chinese aviation industry. They are not in position to certify a true 5th generation fighter. first you need to understand 5G fighter.
As if the ‘privilege’ being ‘offered’ to India has no commercial implications. :rolleyes:
It was in past but not present and certainly not in future. India does not have that much commercial or otherwise importance in 21st century that Russia will bargain for true 5G fighter technology. At best hope for heavily sanitized export model at prices higher than export JSF.
Produce evidence about unaffordability. Not interested your doubts or opinions.
dithering over contracts for Rafale. no large scale order for LCA. delayed A330 tanker order. I can go on and on. bottom line India simply cant afford PAK-FA this decade.
Not interested in explaining how foolish that idea is.
Kindly produce concrete evidence of the Russian order for the PAKFA being ‘several times larger’ than the Indian one, without indulging in wild guesses.
Just look at past 5 year orders of Ruaf. and extra polate into future. It is very obvious Ruaf will be several times larger.
Its a ‘simple fact’ that has nothing to do with the topic at hand. What is related to the topic at hand is the fact that the F-35 will be at the core of the future USAF and USN fleets.
F-35 will be core at post 2020 decade time. and than It will be competing for money with UCAVs & LRSB. Now more money is going to maintaining F-22/F-16/F-15/F-18.
TVC/supercruise is not a ‘must’ if the terms on which they’re being acquired are not favourable. The F-22s are not in production and will be retired when they’re scheduled to be retired. The IAF and IN can live with the F-35 if they have to.
TVC/Supercruise/More powerful twin engine for power supply for electronic attack, long range persistence at higher speeds/altitute, ability to launch longer range and heavier missiles all contribute to decisive 5G fighter.
JSRIt is matter of interpretation. these weopons are entering service from state defense order. once they are part of military it is counted as %age of total expenditure in military. so if total military expenditure is $300b in 2020. State defence order may as high as $210 b. modern weopons have long lead times. some thing procured today may not enter service for next 5 years. but you need to keep spending money on R&D and industrial workers each year.
JSRSo is Defence Budget and Procurement budget two different thing ? I mean from what you says Procurement budget is over and above the defence budget and that too a huge amount , is that the real case ?
Because every defence budget has some portion of procurement budget built in i.e Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) in some ratio
Most countries with small procurement have one defence budget. Russia is larger and on accelerating path of rearmament there is separate deputy PM in charge for budget for procurement, DARPA etc. I thought you already know as your following it.
JSRTwo years is on longer side when it comes to negotiating a contract but so what? How long the Swiss competition take? When will the UAE and Brazil contracts be signed? And what does any of it have to do with a single vendor situation as in the case of the PAKFA?
The bottom line is that Rafale is now in single vendor situation for past 2 years and all flight trials have completed by IAF along with weopon testing even before that. only negotiation is TOT and price.
Now in case of PAK-FA. no weopon and flight trials done by IAF. There is not even negotiations for procurement. so how you can even claim delivery before 2022?
Contract awarded in 2013 for aircraft being delivered in 2016. Five years huh? Perhaps next time you could read the article before posting it.
You overlooked that is part of LRIP 8. You are overlooking the industrial supply chain formed in past 7 LRIPs. There is no such thing in case of PAK-FA. There is no chance of accommodation for IAF in LRIPs of PAK-FA for Ruaf.
I asked for evidence about the J-20 and J-31 being expendable programs, not a soliloquy on the Chinese aviation industry.
so you think you can create 5G fighter without considering the overall competence of aviation industry.
Doesn’t change the fact that every major air force in the world, except for the AdlA and Luftwaffe, will share the ‘privilege’ of operating a fifth generation fighter.
They are not sharing the privilege but more dependency on JSF industrial chain with super expensive upgrades and life long profits for LM.
Produce evidence please. Further add evidence of the order being capped at 144 units.
This 144 to 214 numbers floating around by India media. but even that affordability is in doubt.
So you can predict the direction of the commodities market over the next twenty years, which is closely linked to growth of the Russian economy, which in turn determines the size of the Russian defence budget? Because so far your ‘solid evidence’ amounts to “X number of aircraft have been ordered in last four years, therefore the total PAKFA production over the next 25 years will be ‘several times larger’ than the Indian one”.
we can start another thread about next 20 years predictions. Just to give you clue of how forecasts are made by observations from satellites. It is not about increasing commodities production but hindering your competitors by using one against another.
http://rt.com/news/airstrikes-libya-russian-military/
The same sources in Russia�s military establishment say they are also monitoring the situation around Libya�s oil pumping facilities.
now imagine whole Middleast decomposing into tribalism and Islamism in next 10 years. and the whole China/Korea/Japan dependency on CIS pipelines and railways. India will be extremely negative impacted both in financials inflows and resources.
Once again, you’re off on a tangent. I did not mention operational costs, procurement costs, training or maintenance anywhere in my post. Read it again, when you’re sober.
I stated a simple fact – the F-16 and SH are not in production for the US military anymore and the F-35 will form the core of its future force profile. Only you could interpret that as a ‘very misinformed opinion’.
simple fact is USAF/USN can not afford those expensive JSF if they continue procurement of F-16/F-18. but it does not mean sustainment, upgrades and operational costs are decreasing for F-15/F-16/F-18. They will keep them for next 30 years.
If the industrial agreement on the PAKFA doesn’t pan out, it becomes of a case of acquiring an aircraft off-the-shelf. And nowhere is it written that the aircraft purchased must supercruise or have TVC, thus bringing the F-35 into contention. Like I said before, if they had to the IAF and IN could comfortably ‘manage’ with the F-35.
TVC, higher altitude/top speed and supercruise are must. otherwise just retire F-22 and buy more JSF. There is no point in sustaining/upgrading small numbers of F-22. for next 30 years.
JSRI repeat, please produce evidence about India being reluctant to induct it before 2022.
And since you’ve mentioned it, please go ahead and produce evidence of production lead time for fifth generation aircraft being as long as 5 years.
The MMRCA is a complex multi-vendor contract. It has nothing to do with the PAKFA.
MMRCA is complex multi vendor contract? Rafale is selected almost two years ago. and it is nothing compared to establishing industrial supply chain of 5G fighter. Again there is practically zero evidence of any talk of PAK-FA sale to IAF.
look at long lead times for 4 planes delivery.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/lockheed-awarded-long-lead-items-contract-for-japanese-f-35s-383933/
Please produce evidence of the J-20 and J-31 being expendable programs.
Evidence is clear from Chinese aviation industry progress. They are even importing titanium from Russia for ARJ-21/MS-21 and obsolete engines for Y-20.
and you think they can create 5G fighter with $60 to $100b of R&D in countries which already capable of making things alot of things right. 5G fighters by definition are heavier and draggier. just look at internal volume for fuel, weopons and electronics. and than add high performance G suits, and newest weopons. Just engine R&D will be in $20b if you take real commercial value of that. as it is opportunity cost for engine manufacturer to put there best engineers on non Civil project.
15 countries will share that ‘privilege’ before the end of the decade, so spare me the asinine sermon.
Those 15 countries fighter will not super cruise nor it will have suprememe agility of TVC. and above all these countries policy will confirm great extent to US. They have no say in design, customization, upgrade or even use of that fighter. There first LRIP units are tested inside US.
Please produce evidence that the proposed induction rate will be low enough to make it unprofitable.
It is every obvious 144 is too small a number for any joint R&D or license.
Produce evidence about the Russian order for the PAKFA being ‘several times larger’ than the probable Indian one, not silly extrapolations based on cherry-picked data.
It is solid evidence based on past trends and big future budgets.
The last F-16 was delivered to the USAF in 2005 and the last F-18E/F to the USN in 2011. Deliveries to both have ceased. Both forces which have remained the strongest of their kind since 1942, are banking upon the F-35 being the cornerstone of their future fleets. So if they had to, the IAF and IN could ‘manage’ with the F-35. After all, a fifth generation aircraft is a ‘privilege’ to be bestowed upon the blessed, not a commodity acquired in exchange for hard cash.
Again very misinformed opinion. procurement costs are small part compared to long term sustainment of F-16/F-18/F-15 fleet for next 30 year. It starts with simulators to pilot training to maintainance. infact this costs are so huge that US air fleet is smallest now since 1945. JSF operational costs will be way higher.
JSRThere was no reference to the PAK FA in the MMRCA’s RFP. Nowhere doesn’t it say that the contracts with regard to the latter need to be concluded before the PAKFA’s acquisition can begin.
As for intentions, please produce evidence about India being reluctant to induct the PAKFA before 2022.
you do realize that complicated plane like 5G fighters need 4 to 5 year lead time. there is simply no order or funding from India. India is not even negotiating about actual planes. India is only negotiating about R&D that will lead to a single prototype. This thing has practically nothing to do with inducting finish plane into service. how many years is MMRCA in negotiating sttge and when it is going to inducted?
Please produce evidence about the J-10 & J-31 being expendable programs.
China has started alot of programes but it has to crawl back to Russia. China will create prototypes but it does not mean it is actual 5G fighter. There is 30 year gap going from 4G to 5G fighter.
India isn’t there to provide value to UAC. Its there to negotiate industrial commitments in return for placing a large order with UAC. And we’re not discussing drones, trainers or transports.
Entry into 5G fighters is privilege. That is only granted when there is overall value in relationship & shared interests. (i gave Algeria example). you are dangling some vogue orders that we dont even know the production rate per year as low production can make the whole thing unprofitable.
Your bets mean nothing. Please produce evidence of Russian order for the PAKFA being ‘several times larger’ than the probable Indian one.
I gave you past 5 years trend line of orders. now extrapolate that trend line into next 20 years.
If its good enough for the USAF and USN, its good enough for the IAF and IN.
F-16/F-18 are also good enough for next 30 years in USAF/USN. they are also cheaper. but did India selected them for MMRCA?
JSRThen why did they postponed the MiG-35 buy for financial reasons? 🙁 If it’s 1.1 billion for 24 MiG-35, then that’s sort-of peanuts compared to the budget at hand no ?
That was defence budget. Procurement comes from State defence order. than you add loans from banks to industry for R&D.
2013 is $63b
2014 is $73b
2015 is $90b
http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20121227/178443375.html
“The state defense order will reach about 1.9 trillion rubles next year, about 2.2 trillion in 2014 and 2.8 trillion in 2015,” Rogozin said in an interview with Rossiya 24 television.
Russia allocated about 908 billion rubles (about $30.7 bln) on state defense order spending in 2012.
It not just MIG-35 but it will need new simulators for pilot training. it is like inducting a new aircraft. there may not enough pilots. Yak-130 induction need to accelerate.
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