JSRI said less than 10 years. massive down sizing is surely coming. you cannot bet against the tide of debt.
East Asia is practically off limits for large EU weopons exports.
With $1T of pentagon cuts coming. US will force out any competition to its weopon exports.
See BAE and Saudi price haggling on remaining EF batch. stalled deal of Rafale in UAE. Even if they go through. they have been dragged so much that it will contribute little to bottom line.
There are other factors also
see israel example. It stoped to Turkey and have start to Russia but Russia is not Turkey that it will import for ever. It is going to put $12b into UAV system.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/russia-to-strengthen-uas-pact-with-israel-373250/
Russia to strengthen UAS pact with Israel
JSRRussia needs to give priority to UAV & combat drones. The conflict in Syria shows how needy & useful unmanned combat drones can be in fighting those terrorists. Russia need to develop one on top priority and supply it to Syria, even if not, Russia will need such unmanned drones in the future to fight the Islamic terrorists.
If Iran or China can manage to provide operational unmanned strike drone to Syrian Army, it would have a big impact in fighting those terrorists scums.
I dont see how drones can be used in dense urban environment. as drones are not armoured plated against fire. they are slower than choppers and require airfield. so load and reload from base stations will take more time. there is delay in signal.
drones are compeletely depended on sensors for situtional awarness. there is no real time human eyes.
Best way is fully armoured two seat gunship with self protection suit against manpads, loaded with machines guns and boat load of rockets. it is like flying tank. Is there a cannon in drone?. to pick individuals running around.
JSRWhat does “European” radar even mean?
Russia is expected to out-perform the entirety of the European defense sector?
Not very fair imo.
For a single nation the defense industry is, despite problems, massive and extremely capable.
European radar means that that same source hardware but different integration teams. why you need two production facilities for standardized products?. One of it need to be closed.
http://www.ums-gaas.com/about-us.php
It has two production facilities, at Ulm in Germany, and Villebon/Yvette in France, where the commercial headquarters and product design and development are also based.
Sweden all of sudden not going to buy Thales system into Gripen with same software and hard ware team behind it. There is no centralized talent pool. every one is selling few radars not fully functional and those spread out over a decade. There is no NIIP equal that built 300 electronic scanning radars into Su-30MKI class figher alone. and will probably built another 1000 electronic scanning radars in less than 10 years. thats alot of experiance and money at one place.
I am not going to discuss in this thread why EU/Israel defence industry will fall apart in less than 10 years.
JSRHaving had a head start of several years starting with all the European naval radars and Israeli AWACS and SAM radars it’s likely that the present capability of Israeli/European AESA exceeds that of Russia.
Of course, funding may change that in the near future. That’s something the Europeans are running out of and Russia has plenty of. Russian bureaus have been catching up rapidly in the last few years.
I highly doubt those AESA radars have performance of export Irbis & S300PMU2 PESA relative to the size. Every thing you scale up to Naval radar size & power will show greater performance than simply truck mounted system. see the new Civilian airtraffic control radar systems from Almaz-Antei. best from the start at fraction of price from Boeing/Thales. This lack of technical ability at very top end of fighter radars in EU/Israel (known for compactness & extreme power) is both because of lack of money & technical expertize..There wont be next generation AWACS on scale of A-100. see this from 2008.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4192267/Intel-inks-Russian-agreement-for-sub-45nm-research
there is no integrated structure in Israel/EU to buy military products on big scale from same manufacturer. Like Su-35/Modernized MIG-31/T-50 and bomber radars from same manufacturer. It gives experiance and economies of scale at top end. and this modernized electronic attack airforce will have very negative impact on export of EU/Israel electronic and fighter systems.
JSRThe countries that buy or seek to buy their ‘too modern’ weapons would disagree. Let them enter a war and you’ll see them used to your wild disbelief.:rolleyes:
thats they problem they cannot start war that impact larger US interests. soon Russia and China will become so powerfull that any one start war against there allies will practically impossible.
infact expensive weopons make sure there is less money for other things.
And maybe you ought to read the articles on the India-Russia PAK-FA and MRTA agreements then. We’re funding 50 percent of the MRTA’s budget but getting a rather tiny percent of the workshare, hence the delays with contract negotiations. Likewise with the PAK FA in the long run. You think our Defence Minister is announcing huge outlays on these projects for an April fool’s joke?
bottom line is IL-476 has flown and tier-1 supplier base of MTS will be built around IL-476. so that 50% funding is more like licensing that will come later.
Not surprisingly you’ve got nothing good to say about any aircraft programmes that may be alternatives to Russia. Just calm down and wait. I fully expect the KC-390 will be far more successful as the Il-214 on the export market, nor will spare parts and logistics be anywhere near an issue than it is on nearly all Russian planes(including, probably, the Il-214 sometime in the future).:cool:
Have u look at Embarer profits. they are tiny relative to sales. It is not if they are doing some intensive R&D to move into next level.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/30/embraer-results-idUSL2E8IUG4N20120730
They dont control supply chain. They dont have any intellectual capacity despite have 30 year commerical success. which cannot be repeated.
Likewise, whether or not it gets as many customers as the PAK FA, the KFX will fly. Regardless of your rather deep contempt, South Korea had enough capability to develop the greatest trainer/light fighter in the market today. Any technical gaps there are can and will be filled in by willing American and European partners.
South Korea cannot develop shiit without foreign expertize. All they have done is copying and improving the same thing for ever and even for that it need foreign technical people. Italy also created successfull trainer. American/Euro will only transfer second rate tech that is pretty much discarded. 50% financing contribution does not mean 50% technology.
for 67 MTOW KC-390 can only lift 16tons.
for 68 tons MTOW MTS lift 20 tons. i will even consider that 67 ton as bogus number just to look good on paper. maxmum altitude MTS 43000 feet. KC-390 36000 feet. Ferry range. MTS 3900nauts. KC-390 3200 nauts.
Since MTS will fly higher with better thrust to weight ratio so it can fly from higher elevation. MTS is 60000 flight hrs. it will have very long life for tactical transport with much higher curising speed. It is almost a 4 engine plane.
http://www.uacrussia.ru/ru/models/transport/mts/data/
http://www.embraerdefensesystems.com/english/content/cargo/performance.asp
JSRGiven Turkey’s rapid defence modernization becoming more like them wouldn’t be bad at all.;)
Turkey weopons are so modernized that cannot be used.
I also wouldn’t mind if we dumped both the PAK-FA and MRTA(Wonder what the Russians would do to replace their An-12s then:D) as well as the price-inflated Mi-17 deal and went all Western/Asian.
I dont think India money is into PAK-FA/MRTA. Mi-17 very reasonably priced and even Chinese are using them.
A KFX-style partnership for a 5th gen fighter, join the Embraer C-390 programme for a medium transport(as it is it’s likely to get off the ground years before an MRTA prototype is built), the Fennec for a light helo and a HAL-Eurocopter partnership and licence-built Sikorsky S-92s(they already have an agreement with Tata to source home-built cabins) for medium helos.:cool:
KC-390 is assembling of parts from supply chain that is completely unwilling to share anything with underpowered engines on overweight platform with x- section not shared with larger plane like aka IL-476. This thing will uneconomical from the gate as there is no large airforce and sharing of platforms/engines.
KFX is a bad joke . at best Korea can achieve in next 20 years is 1996 standard Mitsubishi F-2. Korea has far less technical ability with near complete dependency on foreign technical people and copying.
Japan had savings that keep Japan afloat for decades. Korea dont have savings. it will go straight to external lenders and external lenders will put stringent conditions on defence budget.
http://www.voanews.com/content/south-korea-faces-looming-debt-crisis/1514393.html
JSRNice. With 60 target detection capability Phazotron has matched the Elta EL/M-2052’s 64 targets. And to think MiG originally thought about approaching the Israelis because they thought Russian radar makers couldn’t develop an AESA!
Israel will fall behind just like Sweden auto industry. both in skilled manpower and money for new R&D. when you dont have giant pool of state money and technical people its far harder to fill up the technical gaps in broad spectrum of technologies. AESA is not hardware alone but software i dont think EU & Israel systems will approach Russia AESA systems.
see intel craig barrett example. when u bring a leader followers come after.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/firewall/2010/08/20/intels-mcafee-deal-a-national-security-nightmare/
JSRjust commenting on one thing here and I’m not saying anyone is really guilty of it, but I’ve seen the claim that SAC managed to design this aircraft based on the information they hacked from Lockheed everywhere on the internet.
If anyone has seriously followed SAC’s struggles in developing J-11B, J-15 and J-16, they would have less confidence in SAC’s copying abilities. China has had Su-27s for 20 years and all of the technical documentations and production line for Su-27s for 16 years and they’ve only barely managed to deliver J-11B into service for about 2 years. And based on J-11B performance in the past year, it’s hard for me to call this project a success. And that’s when they’ve got all the blue prints, production tooling, Russian produced parts. And somehow, some people believe SAC can just somehow magically reproduce an aircraft just relying on data they hacked from Lockheed Martin despite have totally different engines, aircraft material, design objectives and electronics.
Also, even though CAC and SAC are competitors within AVIC-1, they are still cooperative in the sense that they do share designs. For example, SAC is said to have been fairly involved with the J-20 project.
Flanker is very complex aircraft. considering the amount of internal fuel and weight/performance. I am not surprized it take so long to master it by SAC.
I will not be surprized if internal fuel, weopon load/performance of J-20 is less than Flanker.
JSRIf the Russians are friendly only as long as India buys Russian weapons, regardless of their quality & price, then Russia is not a good friend. The answer for Russia is to improve what they offer, not get upset.
hehe. what has India done for Russia to earn its friendship and is even capable of doing anything in future.
There 1000 domestic orders for Oboronprom before 2020. I am not counting any export orders for Oboronprom. More than 300 transport planes before 2020. There is not a space for insignificant customized orders now.
Personally i think Putin should pull the plug on PAK-FA, Brahmos and Gorshkov. let India buy all Western. and see how it become another Turkey.
Russia has much better use of systems in its own armed forces
JSRPlenty of ways to get there. They could travel individually to Turkey by bus from Iran to Turkey, travel individually to Libya then get on a ship, travel individually to Lebanon or Jordan by scheduled flights then walk across the border, drive across the remote desert border with Iraq . . .
Note that according to Al-Qaeda & the Taliban, the Turkish state is run by heretics who defile Islam with their claim to be Muslims, & whose toleration of mixing of the sexes, alcohol, bikinis, education for women, female athletics, women cycling, legal equal rights for women, protection of non-Islamic places of worship, etc. are insults to all right-thinking Muslims.
Of course, Turkey may se] benefits in transporting Al Qaeda fighters to Syria to get killed by Assad’s troops. :diablo:
if islamists found out that turkey is deceiving them by sending them into death like cannon fodder. Erdogan is cooked. See recent Libya example. Turkey has already lost great deal of credibility by not imposing no fly zone despite numerous announcements.
If this thing continue for next couple of years. Turkey is going to lose 60% of its country. (losing means ungovernable)
As you cannot win a religious/ethinic war without fully commiting to religion and rest of regional countries are going to gang up.
Russia is giving assurance to one side that there will be no foreign intervention. This encourages fight to continue for long time.
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=438947
JSRFYI rare earth metals are anything but rare, any country can dig & destill it,
its just cheaper to let the chinese do it, like everything else.
yeah it is easy to dig ground with ageing and over priced labor.
JSRErr, yeah, that was my point…
see Libya war and related 30% oil price spike example.
energy exporters are waiting for next crises to squeeze further.
Wars are sustain not only by control of resources but ability to deny others the resources at reasonable price.
Axis powers lack the technical means like long range fighters, bombers, subs and ships with cruise missiles, radar satellites that could hinder resource shift to EU. and
North American continent has 150 million People so it could spare massive amount of surpluses.
Now it more complex with Aluminium, titanium, rare earth metals, industrial diamonds, palladium (see where Merkel landed when China restrict rare earth supplies).
JSRWe was strictly talking about system wise.
I would agree that the extra 2000kgf will shift the kenetics even more in favor of the Flanker.But on radar and SA, the Su-27SM is something of a relic..
It does not help to install a few MFD and belive it would change the overal performance here..
The N-001V Radar on Su-27SM has its limitations.http://forum.keypublishing.com/showpost.php?p=1846327&postcount=11
Advanced radar warning receiver, communication system and IRST also contribute to increase situational awarness.
Adding a electronic scanning heavier radar to older airframe without incresae in thrust/fuel capacity will decrease performance/capability further. This is strictly related to upgrading old airframes.
see ist characteristic is aerodynamic.
http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/company/design/
Upgrading of the Su-27SM and Su-27UBThe programme to upgrade the Su-27 aircraft, the best aircraft in its class, undertaken at the request of the Ministry of Defence, will yield an aircraft with high-spec aerodynamic performance, avionics, control systems, etc.
JSRIn which case, let’s not compare fighter planes, let’s talk about who has the most money. After all, isn’t that how the allies defeated the axis powers in 1945.
Allies have more access to resources for sustain long war.
JSRIf you talk about the Su-27SM upgrade, then yes i agree.
The SM upgrade is inferior to the Latest F-15 Golden Eagles upgrade with the v3 AESA and overall SA.It does not mean this can be improved. And with the Su-30SM, Su-27SM3, Su-35S and Su-34, i would say the gap on these issues have closed.
Anyway, we have to look at other vital assets in VVS, the Mainstay A-50 fleet, which is hopless outdated. Allthough the A-50U will improve VVS SA, it is too little and too late.. it should have been done 7 years ago..
I would not call Su-27SM modest upgrade. it has enhanced engines the most critical thing for acceleration and radar performance. New FBW, Glass cockpit, communication and EW system.
so unless old F-15C get new engines. its straight line & climb rate performance will remain at 1970s level.
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