Far more interesting in news item is MRCA is now $20b with half the aircraft of 5G fighters. I would think MRCA cost will rise far more with time during implementation phase.

You are really reaching here.

There is always something else coming down the pipe. Sooner or later you have to make a choice and live with it. They aren’t going to delay a program they have been working on for 10+ years to include the possibility of yet another competitor right at the end unless they have no choice.

actually JSF can be delivered sooner to India than India speciliazed Rafale. Rafale will always have low production rate. JSF radar is much more tested than Rafale AESA.

I agree and that is the major and only comforting thing in the whole deal as far as I’m concerned. I hope the timeline of 2014 is kept, any delay in the delivery and it would loose even tha advantage, the only positive factor to he deal.

you have to give it some slack. There will be some delay as it will be integration of subsystems and working of two parties on a project. You also have to look at range not just carrying capacity.

is there anywhere a breakdown of what planes will comprise those 600 combat planes? As i can’t find any combination that would reach that many in 2020. Unless modernization of existing planes is included in that number or the definition of combat plane is stretched so it includes the likes of yak130, various armed uavs and what not.

su34 is already paced for production until 2020 – it is said there will be 92 more or at most 108 more units until then. Su35 is hoped to get to 48 until 2015, (though that may be slipping) so realistically 120 until 2020. is the most we can expect. pakfa is usually quoted around 60 until 2020.

we have 24 mif29k and 30 su30. since more carriers certainly wont even be built by 2020 more mig29k are out of the question. more su30 are possible but as irkut itself said, they will stop producing combat planes by the end of the decade so realistically we will see maybe one more batch of 30 su30 and that is it.

So will the su25 production be restarted? with planned modernization of at least 80 more existing ones and plans for new plane to be produced from 2020 onwards that seems unlikely.

That leaves just the mig35. The combined number of those planes mentioned above is 350, so there would have to be 250 mig 35 produced by 2020 which is clearly an impossibility.

My guess is that modernized planes (such as mig31bm, su25sm, tu22m3m3 etc) are included in that figure of 600 combat planes, perhaps even yak130 are added (as those conceivably could be used in some combat roles) and that is how we got the 600 figure in the first place.

Knaapo is the largest warplane builder in the world at one place. bigger than combined size of napo/iapo.
There is no way napo/Irkut are going to deliver more products to Ruaf.
If there are 140 Su-34 and 60 Su-30. (Irkut also got Yak-130 contract). Su-35/T-50 combined should be atleast 400 before 2020. assuming one or two small contracts for new MIG to make the numbers over 600. There are alot of MAKS shows left to sign the contracts.

On Superjet alone they employed 12000 people. which is more than total number of employees at napo.
http://englishrussia.com/2011/11/15/aircraft-construction-from-a-to-z/#more-76918

w.r.t to Mistrals. Link from what TR1 earlier posted. I didn’t see it posted earlier, so posting it now.
Btw, the more details come out on Mistrals, its disappointing… the only comforting fact (but a very valuable one also) is the time saving of probably 6-7 years. Other than that, there is absolutely nothing that Russian design bureaus or shipyards could not have achieved. There is not going to be any revolution in shipbuilding in Russia due to the Mistral contracts as some members pointed out in another thread, which I still disagree.

6-7 years time saving is worth the double price in fixed price contract. in 7 years material, energy and labor rates atleast double. and there is opportunity cost of getting such valuable troop and helicopter carrier earlier.
Imagine what will happen to Oil price once Russia pakred this Mistrals at Red Sea for Anti-terror operations. very good hint. (All this extra permium can be collected in single day)

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20120814/175209714.html
Russia Will Not Cut Rearmament Spending – Putin

I tried to understand that article, I swear! But it hurt my brain… :diablo:

I provided two links. You have to read both the links to understand it properly.
See 4 Rafales constitute 26% net sales for first half of the year.
about 500m Euro.

Net sales

Consolidated net sales amounted to EUR 1,929 million in the first half year 2012, up by 46%, compared to EUR 1,317 million in the first half year 2011. Export net sales represented 77% of total net sales in the first half year 2012.

FALCON net sales increased by 72% between the two periods, reaching EUR 1,437 million in the first half year 2012 compared to EUR 837 million in the first half year 2011. 34 FALCON were delivered in the first half year 2012, compared to 19 in the first half year 2011.

FALCON net sales represented 74% of total net sales in the first half year 2012 compared to 64% in the first half year 2011.

4 RAFALE were delivered to French Air Force and Navy in the first half year 2012 versus 6 in the first half year 2011. Nevertheless, Defense net sales showed an upturn of 2%, due to an increase in support and development activities.

The first link has what if scenarios like Rafale built in India with all licensing and labor training costs. It is pretty logical that there will be cost involved in transferring the technology.

r u measuring the same GDP as one is completely debt free both at public and private level. (non existent housing loans).
and it is very insignificant amount of money compared to other Russia spendings.

PAK-FA should be cheaper as it is manufactured in Siberia with engines from Rybinsk. and profits will be reasonable for gov owned UAC.

compared to LM/BAE/UTC and sub supplier to them.
F-22 has 1000 suppliers in 44 states. this also factor in cost increase

http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/news/press-releases/2008/december/LockheedMartinRecognizedF.html

F-35 industrial supply chain is even more spread internationally. so many customers are buying in one or two for tests and slow induction that will create delays in subsystems integration and its fixed cost will be higher as assembly line is for very high un realistic production rates . see Israel EW example. it is like one less EW system from the standard supplier.

EF-2000 despite its higher production rates and lack of verstality (no Naval version) is not much cheaper than Rafale.
All the signs point towards eventual price increase for F-35 customers.