I can’t be bothered, you clearly are a fantasist who can’t see beyond fanboy dreams of Russian glory.

I have clearly shown you thecontrast of independent vertically integrated industry with simple part suppliers and assemblers.
see this example. work is done in Germany but will count towards RR revenue stream. Thats how structural bubble is created as every one is counting the same thing multiple times.
http://www.rolls-royce.com/deutschland/en/about/germany/index.jsp

Just Heli and its engines. revenues are $8b. I highly doubt they have subsidiary in Germany.

http://www.uk-odk.ru/eng/presscenter/odk_news/1595/
United Industrial Corporation OBORONPROM is a multi-faceted machine-building group founded in 2002. It is a part of the Russian Technologies group of companies. Its primary areas of business include helicopters (Russian Helicopters), engine-building (UEC), and other assets. The company’s revenues in 2011 exceeded 229 billion rubles.

Canada has no Aerospace industry? Well that is funny considering its worth $22billion vs $7billion for Russia and is regarded as a global leader in many areas including avionics, engines and regional aircraft. Problems in the development program of one aircraft type the CS100 doesn’t change the fact that Canada outstrips Russia when it comes to its aerospace sector by almost triple the value!

Just one factory Irkut has same earnings as Embarrer. showing high level of domestic content.
If Panasonic sells 1 million in flight entertainment systems it does not mean Matsushiita electric is Aerospace giant. Russia has sold 2500 AL31 to India/China alone. Canada cannot design anything by its own so it cannot sell IP rights. Just supporting Russian airforce which is more than 10 times the size of Canada say alot. I am not going into hundreds of choppers produced each year with maximum indigenous content. Canada has very limited scientific base. It has to import Polar Hawak for survellence arctic. Russia can built its own surevellence equipment on Tu aircraft.

You are also obsessed with Airbus procurement of Titanium from Russia…so what?! that is a commercial reality. It doesn’t change the fact that in worth European aerospace production dwarfs Russia’s. In every metric it is larger…a320 production is over 40 a month alone! How many Tu-204 have been built in the last year or ten years for that matter? You also keep talking about IP, well Airbus and other European manufacturers retain their IP but outsource production in some but not all areas…this is a very flexible model. It is a model confirmed by the success of the European/North American manufacturers vs Russias.

Russia can produce 100 combat aircraft & 300 choppers per year and which requires 3 times engine replacement over its life time. . Just remove the banks from middle and see how much sucessfull is that model aeropace outsourcing. Tu-204/214 is truly verstalie aircraft with 14 hr range with full electronic equipment. It is on level A330. offcourse it cannot be used like Taxi as it was never designed for such role.

You keep talking about the possible future vast sales of IL-76/476 and MS21/Superjets as well as their engines…again I hate to burst your bubble but the prevailing industry feeling is those aircraft will serve a niche in the Russian market (with Russian airlines being forced to buy them) but have little hope of tumbling Boeing and Airbus with their vast global support network.

Prevailing industry feeling? so now you can accurately predict future. Airbus only exists because 60% of long haul jets ordered by Middleast. This economic model is receipe for permananet bankruptcy. You wont have your own airline & bank for too long because Middleast will require ever higher priced of Oil. this simple fact.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/09/us-russia-putin-west-idUSBRE86818020120709

You have such certainty that Chinas aerospace industry is just round the corner from a fall due to lack of need and a poor R&D base. Chinas aerospace industry has gone through a massive increase in size and the indigenous R&D base. It has come leaps and bounds in the last twenty years. This is mainly due to an explosion in University level education in China and domestic need for modernisation. It also has however much you stick your fingers in your ears and shout “LA LA LA” a faster growth rate then Russian aerospace and has already overtaken it in domestic worth.

This IL-476 is the most complex aircraft when you consider it is flight cycle time, takeoff performance, FBW, glass cockpit and engine life. Only Pentagon size budget can afford such level of capability. There is practically zero chance of anything developed on such level in EU/Canada/China.

Anyhow you clearly want to live in your bubble where Russia is this global giant when it comes to the aerospace sector. Hats off to a patriot even if you have Russian tinted glasses on.

To quote General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmanay Melchett:

I amt living in bubble. I clearly read about banking system, demographics, employment level, natural resource and higher level focused R&D. It is vertically integrated approach of aerospace development completely opposite of Chinese model/Western model.
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/2012-07-08/irkut-plows-fighter-earnings-fulfilling-its-airliner-ambitions-mc-21

Where did you get the impression that I think they are not trying hard JSR?!

You wrote that they don’t need exports since they are filling domestic order as I said export will become unprofitable once they stop selling J-10/J-11 to PLAAF.
See Boeing F-15 example. Since USAF has stopped ordering new F-15s. Its export price has zoomed to Eurocanard level despite more than 1500 F-15 built. And there is no way J-10/J-11 can be sold at such inflated prices.

I am saying that export sales of helicopters, low tier fighters, trainers and you can throw in light transport types are solid. High tier fighter production appears to be earmarked for domestic force modernisation. As for when China stops buying J-10 and J-11…CAC and SAC are hardly going to close down. They will be deep into production of whatever types are chosen to replace the J-10 and J-11. Defence aerospace is a strategic industry for China so they are hardly going to let their main production facilities go down the pan.

Have you consider engines/Avionics/components in so called low tier exports. – I am not saying CAC/SAC will close down after J-10/J-11 but they will become even larger burden on the state due to low volume and little export prospects of 5G fighters.

You appear to be really eager to big up Russian production and some kind of soon to be seen collapse of the Chinese aerospace sector through lack of work. Considering China has had an aerospace sector in constant growth for the last twenty to thirty years and significant ongoing domestic military and civilian needs I don’t think they are in any threat of collapse!

constant growth or constant debt with constant recapitalization from state. See half a million employess of AVIC.

Certainly Russia has had a modest income stream from maintenance and modernisation of types like the il76 and AN124 plus various fighter contracts over the years but is it fair to compare that to Chinas ongoing domestic aerospace growth? For that matter how does Russian domestic aerospace maintenance and modernisation sector compare to a Western nation like America? How many more iL76 and AN124 going to be produced in comparison to Airbus a330?

There will be more than 4000 D-30 thanks IL-76 operations. There will be 1000 PS-90. and huge amount of PD-XX will come online in due course. Russian aviation sector is creating long term profitability starting from raw materials like Titanium to down stream Airline and chopper firms.
A330 sales are good for EADS & there suppliers but it does not mean it is good for EU as its sales to Middleasern airlines are killing EU airline industry. No one in EU can match Aeroflot/Volga Denpr profits despite using inefficient aircrafts in the portfolio. There will be no commercial competitor to IL-76/An-124 from China or West.

People need to be a bit more nuanced about this debate rather then use it as a game of web one-upmanship.

I look at percentage component in each aviation product and its original source of IP. For example 70% of components of An-148/158 series will come from Russia. And 80% of An-124 at this point.
There is no way 70% of components of A330 will come from France or B787 coming from US at this point. Chinese export product has dubious component source. . As I mentioned before only low tier stuff sells because they have been upgraded with foreign components and engines. Even J-7 has western components like radar. J-17 has western ejection seat.

http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/topstories/10382.html
Rockwell Collins on XAC’s MA60

J-20 isn’t meant for mass production, just like F-22 wasn’t meant for mass production. They do have other 5th generation project going on in China right now like the one by SAC.

F-22 was projected at 750. It was cut down due financial crises and save F-35.

PLAAF is a large enough customer for J-20. It can easily order 200 J-20s, which should be enough of a production run.

where you got this idea that 200 is enough consider training, maintainance, crashes. if you are going to stop at 200. than that airplane will become obsolete quite soon.(See F-22 example no new engine or role in its life time) it will lack verstallity like no carrier variant.

you could say the same thing about F-35 and American economy. Or PAK-Fa and Russian/Indian economy. Even if the Chinese economy grows at 3% for the next 10 years, it should be able to support a full production run of J-20.

except that lower growth in China will create massive unemployment, lower real estate values (hence no tax revenue to fund stimulated growth). Chinese government need to buy off its own people just like kingdom of saudi so they remain permanent in power.
there will be no money for projects that dont create alot of wealth and employment.

K-8 has US/Ukranian engine. in basic trainer engine alone cost half the price. Hondgu aviation has loss this quarter.
L-15 airframe cost $15m.

http://www.9abc.net/index.php/archives/77900
Everbright Securities analyst Yun Min is in its research report is expected next decade L15 demand of about 700, including 400 domestic and 300 foreign. In accordance with 100 million yuan per frame to calculate the L15 over the next decade will bring 70 billion of revenue.

i dont think China can manage profitable exports this decade.
they are trying to export J-17 wit foreign engine which they are not buying. so it will be unprofitable and redundant effort.
Su-33 clone will be another loss making enterprize.and not sure it can reliabily operate in carrier environment with light weight structure.

Really hoping this means they will convert at least some strategic bombers to dedicate AAM carriers. Imagine a Tu-160 flying in and just unloading 100 R-77’s for sh*ts and giggles into an enemy formation! The USAF has been toying around with converting a few of its own heavy bombers into dedicated AAM carriers for at least 10 years now, but nothing has ever come of it. Hopefully Ivan will give them the push they need to actually do it.

The best way to destroy airforce is on the ground using long range standoff weopons. I am sure this gigantic radars will be used for real time mobile ground tracking.
satellites are used for finding fixed airbase and than when there is activity on tarmac lunch cruise missiles from loitering supersonic bombers. as hitting airbase like fixed target without airplanes on tarmac is waste of cruise missile as fighters may have been protected in hardened shelters or just dummy fighters parked outside.

there is picture on page 11 showing tank at 50km.
http://www.knaapo.ru/media/eng/about/production/military/su-35/su-35_buklet_eng.pdf

The Russians in the end may have a more achievable goal; they know their capabilities are limited in this field, so they design to those limitations. The Chinese design on the other hand, seems more ambitious, but may not be able to follow through on the technology.

India will become world largest export customer of Stealth fighter PAK-FA even if China start importing it and India surely do know by now anything based on PAK-FA will be far superior than Euro-Canards, J-20 and F-35.
Non of these 3 contenders will have flight and altitude performance with flat frontal and side profile. They will also lack in range, engine and radar power.
PAKFA will be big commercial success as there will be no competitor to it neither in Ruaf nor in export market.

I am making an “educated assumption”, that an aircraft company that has been designing and developing radar-defeating aircraft and materials for the past 30 years, has in fact refined and achieved results which one can be confident in. On the other hand, an aircraft company that has never demonstrated any know-how, or capability of designing/manufacturing such designs…and in fact has chosen to take approaches to such a design that are 180 degrees opposite to the approaches that those who have been designing, building and operating such aircraft for 30 years…is likely not going to achieve comparable results.

.

your basically making uneducated guess.
You need supercomputers and software of today to design an aircraft and than CNC machines from Japan/Germany to actually built it.
than there is testing against todays advance radar systems. that have become sophisticated by leaps and bound since 1980s.
some thing designed against S-300P from late 1970s will become irrelevant against S500.

http://www.controleng.com/index.php?id=483&cHash=081010&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=2196
Northrop Grumman recommends Siemens CNC technologies for use by F-35 supply chain To achieve high-tolerance machined parts for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, the company is “strongly encouraging” its supply chain to explore use of Siemens Sinumerik Volumetric Compensation System.