JSRGood :), I’ll be glad to see the back of him!! He was totally out of touch with industry/R&D timelines, procurement and the reality on the ground with the RuAF e.g. PAK-FA, PAK-DA etc. His statements to the press were often eye wateringly inaccurate and cringingly embarrassing to the extent that no-one took him seriously anymore.
PAK-FA has run into problems, it is understandable given the nature and ambitions of the project, and the demands on human, technological and infrastructure resources.
Imho, these problems are not of the same magnitude some here have speculated on, such as those that necessitated the major re-design of the T-10 to produce the T-10S. Structural integrity issues are not the same as fundamental aerodynamic flaws. Remember, the F-22 also suffered from excessive cracking of the titanium forward boom frame (a series of load bearing structures within the aircraft’s fuselage, located between the engine and the wing) and also buffeting and separation of materials on the vertical and horizontal tail fins.Hence, the current structural modifications of T-50-4 do not concur with Zelin’s outlandish statements of pre-production T-50s entering state trials next year @ Lipetsk and IOC in 2015. Imho, T-50 should be looking at IOC ~2019/20 with the definitive stage 2 engine and all the other bells and whistles currently in development. Now I ask you, is that such a bad thing?
Zelin has been incharge for 5 years. among longest in world. and any time longer than create personality cult within an organization. so all you have done is baseless speculation.
JSRAnd then you woke up and stopped dreaming.
100 subs and 150 ships will atmost cost $250b (1/3 of armament programe). i am not saying everything will be built before 2020. but atleast money will be allocated and there is nothing stoping them from allocating more money after 2020.
JSRTask of Russian navy is much bigger than Soviet Navy. large navy is needed as instrument of economic power.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/12/russia-oil-exports-idUSL6E8FC5EB20120412
I expect it will reach 100 sub and 150 surface fleet navy.
BSF is the most important one. The more Russia threatens Arabs. The lessor Arabs have confidence on West/China in defending them.The higher the energy price . the faster is decline of Europe. No one is signing big weopons contracts with EU firms after libyan war and not so strong postion on Syria. Sarkozy has lost his shirt trying to sell Rafale. combined that with austerity drive. EU will cease to exist as military power in less than 5 years. so i don see the need of big Baltic Fleet. in less than 10 years with arrival of S500. Nuclear arsenal of France/UK will be too small to penetrate it.
JSRWrong guessing. The claimed AR of 1759 km is a guess close to the theoretical max from estimated ferry range. For max ferry range most of the payload is fuel and the weapons-load zero for every fighter. Under optimum conditions for a high mission profile it gives a modest weapons-load and max ETs. The bigger Su-24MK has just 3 tons of its payload for max combat range, when for the outbond leg the two ETs are over 5 tons or 2/3 of payload at MTOW. 😉
The Su-24 MK with 3 tons bomb-load and two ETs have an AR in lo-lo-lo of 615 km which becomes an AR in hi-lo-hi of ~1025 km.
3700km ferry range of JH-7 is just paper specification.
JH-7 empty weight about 14.5 tons
JH-7 MTOW 28.5 tons
At most 6 tons of internal fuel. See it has very small wing area compared to F-15.
Now it has only been seen carrying 3 small ET. At most 3000kg of external fuel.
so total fuel of 9 tons. Ferry range of 3700 simply unrealistic.
JSREarlier the date was 2020.
by 2016 all 4 mistrals should be completed.
http://rt.com/politics/rogozin-promises-russian-future-845/
Modeern weaponry will make up 70% of the Russian arsenal by 2016, the Deputy Prime Minister said.
JSRUnless some one is doing some menial work. Most of salaries for Airforce/Navy/Airdefence where there is less conscripts should be higher than Western EU where energy/housing cost are twice of Russia.
It is $2.8k a month for airforce major.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-28/putin-appeal-to-heartland-trumps-moscow-protests-as-vote-nears.html
Military Rebuilding
Similarly, spending on rebuilding Russia’s army brought Putin support from the military. Soloviev, the air-force major in Komsomolsk-na-Amure, said his annual salary has risen to 79,000 rubles compared with 34,000 rubles last year. “We should look for a change in something else but who the president is,” said Soloviev as he consumed a dinner of Asian food with his family at B-2, one of the town’s high-end restaurants
JSRTo some extent yes but as you know 50 % of Russia budget income comes from Oil revenue , so its very sensitive to oil price.
If the Oil prices go below $70 then it would drastically impact defence spending , even putin admitted recently that in event oil reaches $70 then some program needs to be reorganised.
I am sure you might be aware the ex finance Kudrin minister who Putin has praised mentioned this level of defence expenditure was not sustainable.
And Putin also said Pak is not only more important than India but also Iran/Turkey etc. you have to look at context. countries are ranked based how much usefull they are in case Russia has to go to war with Gulf Arabs.
http://www.dayafterindia.com/detail.php?headline=content&catid=2650
Putin is only been nice about Kudrin Past. not his future. He use Past & future alternatively between things. why should Russian government need to tell the truth about resources. They are not in need of bailout like Greece. All we know at this point that 2012 long term rearmament programe is 50% bigger than what was planned in 2008. so 2009 financial crises have no impact on long term contracts unless you can prove it otherwise?
Well its normal for MOD to ask but its not necessary they will get it , the finance ministry (Kudrin ) was not willing to give more than 14 trillion but government over ruled FM objection settled for 23 trillion
well they got 23 Trillion. let see few years later they will increase with much larger sums. The task ahead of them cannot be solved with 23 trillion.
Dont believe the Telegraph on Russian matter its just a propaganda tool used against russia , typical UK hate towards russia nothing more , I really dont know how they figure out the the so called Hidden buget value , if russia really spends more then what it claims then it would be a state secret , mostly these are propaganda.
Telegraph is quoting ISS. not some random opinion. consider this they budgeted $3b for housing. and but wants $12b in total. let say they settle for middle number of $6b. any defence budget that is spending $6b on housing construction will be way bigger than $100b per year.
http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120409/172696466.html
Defense Ministry Seeks $9.2 Bln More For Housing
Yeah that true but I read with the recent pay rise early this year the Russian Armed Forces pay would be by and large comparable to NATO armed forces , not sure how well the scientist and engineers gets paid.
well in Siberia it is $2500 a month for researcher. Again quoting Russian source.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/russianow/technology/9183881/Russia-technology-foreign-investors.html
JSRActually there are lot of factors specially Economy and Oil price that would shape the funding …… if Oil prices gets impacted greatly like say gets below $80- 90 in the coming decade then it would have impact on SAP 2020.
Those scenarios are taken into when creating long range economic forecasts.
Actual Defence Spending is 20 trillion + 3 Trillion . 3 Trillion is for MIC etc , 20 Trillion is for Defence Budget and Arms procurement and R&D , out of 20 Trillion roughly about 70 % will be spend on procurement.
That money is only for equiping 70% of modernization by 2020. For optimum they asked for 36T roubles. which is about 1.3Trillion in dollar terms. every 4 years. the long term budget is increased. infact i will not be surprized that around 2015 another big increase is announced.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fb3f248e-5bba-11e1-a447-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1sgqjKaBX
http://zbigniewmazurak.wordpress.com/2011/06/14/russian-defense-spending-has-grown-inexorably/
The Telegraph was right to point out that, as the IISS has reported, Russia is understating its defense spending and that Russia’s real defense budget for FY2007 was 40 bn GBP (the equivalent of $80 bn back then), which was larger than British defense budget of the time, as well as all British defense budgets before the FY2010-2011 defense budget.Vladimir Popovkin, Russia’s first deputy defence minister, said earlier this month that the overall programme budget is also being reassessed and could be boosted to 425 billion pounds in the near future.” – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/7919113/Rus…
Dollar value of SAP money is good to get an idea on the spending value in $ but it really does not matter how much $ because Russia does not import arms majorly and does not have to pay in dollar and the fluctuation of dollar does not matter much.
I agree dollar value dont matter but it has affect of paying competitive wages to scientist, engineers, technicians. for this class of people you need to keep them enough salaries/free housing on large industrial premise so they can afford things that are imported like Japanese Cameras. .
JSRThere is difference between buying decade old Su-27 which already in service and an aircraft not yet in service.
and how do u know China can put into service 5th generation aircraft.
JSRhttp://mil.news.sina.com.cn/2012-04-19/1101688110.html
This time they claimed they refused to sell China Su-35 due to the “highly sensitive techs” of Su-35 despite of China want them badly.:eek: and so now they promote Su-35 to WTF? vietnam, I dont know some russian being this deperate and pathetic.
small orders to smaller countries are more profitable than selling to large countries like China/India/Brazil. as these countries want to put there own equipment and want independence in maintaining fighter over the long term.
JSRIn today exchange rates it is closer to $790b. and it will reach well over $1T in dollar terms by 2020. $800b is reasonable number for conventional armament.
http://www.securityconference.de/Top-News-Detail.55+M58ade3ca1bc.0.html
Mr. Putin announced Russia would spend 23 trillion roubles ($777 billion) through to 2020 on its military.
JSRWhat Russian interests in the area? Russia has no economic interests there, & as long as nobody tries to conquer Iran & establish bases in it (& that is not an option: no serious person even on the American right is suggesting it) no geostrategic interests.
A Russian intervention such as you propose would be a purely spoiling action, dog in the manger behaviour: “what weakens you strengthens me”.
BTW, a blockade is an act of war. You’re proposing that Russia declares war on Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia etc., & cuts off a large part of the oil supplies of (among others) India, China & Japan, without any threat to its own strategic interests. Why would it do such a stupid & reckless thing?
what interests Russia have in fighting Somali pirates beside that place is in Red Sea.
i dont think Russia is spending $800b on conventional armaments to fight bankrupt West or dysfunctional Japan. and that money without creating new debt. The list of countries like India/China/Japan are not important so even they are squeezed due to high Oil prices. These countries have zero influence on Russia decision making.
Russia will have no problem in declaring war on Gulf Arabs provided certain degree of support is reached with large muslim populated countries like Bangladesh/Iran/Pakistan/Indonesia/Malyasia/Iraq. These countries can provide large number of ground troops and landing, overflight rights.
Russia have enough cash, food, energy and technical expertize to built water and gas pipelines that it can buy these countries leadership.
but first it is working on to discredit Arabs in eyes of rest of muslim world.
Just look at Syria example when all Arab league is doing is begging for help from West and even with load of cash inducements Turkey cannot help Arabs.
JSRAboulafia is not much of an expert on anything military, least of all on non-Western military aircraft. While the ARJ21 is definitely shaping up to be quite a miserable effort, I’d rate the J-20 much more favourably for now – military aviation is not at all the same thing as civilian aviation, as the Soviet Union has demonstrated for many decades.
Soviet military aircrafts lack alot of things from manufacturing perspective.
Military aviation is very closely related to Civil. you dont need 98% readiness, 60,000 flight cycles, stringent noise and envirnmental regulations and super light structures/avionics from a Military aircraft. Soviet Civil Aviation lack these characteristics. infact using two pilots for large aircraft is very recent Russian advancement.
Problem with China is it cannot make even Soviet standards aircraft from 1980s. China lack of building large aircraft is directly related to its lack of making long range bombers and fighter aircraft carrying heavy internal and external loads relative to its size.
Currently Chinese are good for airdefence aircraft like J-10/J-11 and lightly loaded JH-7 for its size. which is ok for them if they are only concerned with near board. but any thing that can do out of area strike is currently beyond Chinese technical capacity like Su-34/Su-35/Su-24 that have much deeper internal fuel tanks, engines certified for upto 16hr continous flight and can carry large ET. J-20 is a show boat at this point.
JSRAnd your simple logic contradicts. You say India is committed to Russian stealth yet China even though they have all these fighters in further development they still want the Su-35? When you contradict, you don’t know crap.
You want facts when all your logic is just wishful thinking? Where’s your proof that China wants the Su-35 except for wishful thinking? :diablo:
China has alot of things in development and i believe there industries have promised alot of things but it does not mean it is certified for its intended role. where are those heavy lifters that are supposed to be certified ahead of IL-476.
aero expert from Teal has given his prediction about J-20. and he was not off that much on his ARJ-21.
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2012/04/20120418-135100.html
“It looked like a textbook example of how you shouldn’t design a stealth airplane,” he said.
He says the Dragon is “absurd” because it’s oversized and has large, obvious fins behind the cockpit.
JSRThe RBE2 PESA reportedly offers a tracking range of around 100 km against a 3 sqm target. Rafale pilots report that the detection range of the RBE2 matches that of the RDY radar fitted to the Mirage 2000-5F. The RDY reportedly offers a detection range of 130-140 km against a 5 sqm target. Considering the difference in target RCS and range performance in search and track, the original RBE2 already matched the performance of the Zhuk-MAE and Zhuk-M. What you ignore is that the Zhuk-MAE demonstrator retaining the Zhuk-M backend, had a reduced antenna diameter of just 600 mm vs 680 mm of the slotted array. Aperture is important for range performance as well and likely the reason why this earlier Zhuk-A prototype didn’t fared to well. A “detection range of 148 km against aerial target” tells you nothing about the target’s relative RCS and is subsequently meaningless. The proposed production version of the Zhuk-A/AE features an increased antenna diameter of 700 mm with ~60% more TRMs and if more powr could be squeezed out of the generators and more powerful/efficient modules would be fitted to the production model of the Zhuk-A the range might be increased considerably. Phasotron previously stated detection ranges up to 200 km for the Zhuk-A, but that’s years ago and before the radar actually existed. The RBE2AA AESA radar reportedly offers a 40-50% increase in range performance over the RBE2 PESA which would translate into a detection range of at least 180 km against a 5 sqm target, if not more. To cut it short the Zhuk prototype trialed by the Indians may well have failed in the tests, but a fully developed production variant shouldn’t have any issues to meet and exceed this range requirement. RBE2AA certainly passed the tests and was superior to the Zhuk demonstrator at that time. This might change in terms of raw range performance if the Zhuk-A/AE production variant delivers what it promises.
ZHUK-ME uses 624mm. not much different than ZHUK-AE demo in 2009. Zhuk-ME has more range than ZHUK-M with 680mm from 1990s.
As i said range is the least of concern as far as Russian radar is concerned.
was there AESA equiped Rafale tested in 2009? and how about EF. as UAE has shown that Rafale is not even equal to F-16E radar.
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