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JSR

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  • in reply to: General UCAV/UAV discussion – A New Hope #2355200
    JSR
    Participant

    Only an UAV can be made with so small RCS that it is even worth trying,

    That so small UAV will not be usefull either. modern radars of ships suppose to track stealth subsonic missiles. Any noisy turbo prop UAV is not worth trying.

    and sending in a manned a/c to do it ? well, perhaps ask some old Japanese Kamikaze pilots then.

    Those days are gone. Size and speed of aircraft carrier hasnt change much compared to WW11 but enormous improvement has been done in Airpower and continue to done. There is simply not enough money on carriers alone.

    They also have enough endurance to make the info useful

    That endurance comes at expense of speed and payload. it is very low subsonic like chopper.

    in reply to: General UCAV/UAV discussion – A New Hope #2356092
    JSR
    Participant

    For ISTAR, they are nothing short of God-sent,

    this is the only thing you could get close enough to a US CBG to pinpoint it,
    and the only thing you would ever want to send that close also !

    For strike, they out-range manned fighters by a wide margin, and out-stealth them several times over.

    There is nothing magic about UAV. UAV need to be stealthy as they carry only short range weopons. so it needs to fly near to targets.
    I am not expecting supersonic missile lunched at supersonic speeds from UAV.
    what special about ISTAR and getting close to CBG. CBG cannot see a UAV or they consider UAV as toy.
    Multirole fighters can be refuelled, have longer range weopons, they are way faster to the target. there is no air to air capability in these UAVs and they are way slower for endurance.

    in reply to: Military Aviation News 2011 June – #2356093
    JSR
    Participant

    The reasons are numerous and quite complex actually, firstly recent sanctions put in by Russians against Iran counts out a purchase now anyway.

    In the past the reasons were down to:

    Lack of satisfaction with Russian types already in the fleet.
    Lack of technology transfer in comparison to the days of being a US client state.

    What people don’t realise is during the days of the Shah the technology transfer offered to Iran by America was significant. As part of the defence contracts set up around the F14 and other types like helicopters included massive technology transfer. The US had to set up in effect manufacturer level overhaul facilities in Iran, that is one of the main reasons they have been able to keep their large but elderly US fleet going. Russia is not prepared to offer anywhere near that kind of ToT.

    Another issue is a general distrust of the Air Force by the high ups in the regieme which has led to a lack of funding for new procurement.

    Finally is bangs for bucks against strategic goals…to put together an airforce with equipment that is credible against its neighbours would be an expensive exercise and probably futile. On the other hand investing in IRBM, anti ship missiles and asymetric technologies like cyber warfare are far more effective in meeting their strategic goals and maintaining a deterrence against attacks.

    Russia is much more generous in transferring technology & overhauls. otherwise how Iran can maintain Su-24MK/MIG-29 with related missile. Missiles like R-73 have shelf life. and RD-33 earlier versions is not known for long life.
    http://www.uskowioniran.com/2011/09/fadaeeyan-e-harim-e-vellayat-iii-5.html

    answer is much simpler than that. Generations of officers in Russian foreign and defence have pro-arab views from 1950s. and this limit cooperation with iran. and Iran may not have that much competent people left to absorb technology of modern Flanker.

    in reply to: General UCAV/UAV discussion – A New Hope #2357037
    JSR
    Participant

    It is in appropriate to compare UAVs with legacy jets as it is due to legacy jets that UAV can operate in uncontested environment.
    Dont count only the operating costs of UAV but whole R&D and technical and operational manpower behind UAVs. and i very much doubt UAVs are cost effective. It is diversion of resources to slow turbo prop and underpowered with lowest payload even lower than 1950s era jets like MIG-21.

    Thanks to not spending on UAVs. PLAAF is adding the largest number of new 4th generation jets per year. and PLAAF may well become largest operator of AESA AWACS.
    UAVs cannot replace F-35 rather it will take funds away from F-35 and make it unworkable.

    very modest goals.
    http://www.dassault-aviation.com/en/defense/neuron/programme-milestones.html?L=1

    in reply to: Frenchies trimming defense #2357422
    JSR
    Participant

    French public debt is 86% of GDP.
    British public debt is 64% of GDP.

    French debt is higher in absolute terms, as well as relative to the economy. It’s about £1.4 trillion. :p

    French banking system has $1T exposure to countries that may not likely to pay without further bailout . so some day this debt will come on French tax payers. UK is not that much better but France is facing almost daily downgrades of its banks.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9d499486-4675-11e1-89a8-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1kUicNBDm

    JSR
    Participant

    Next 3 years procurement budget. Total for 10 years is $742 billion.
    http://newspepper.su/news/2011/11/24/state-defense-order-in-2012-will-exceed-one-trillion-rubles/

    2012 $35.5b
    2013 $72b
    2014 $84b

    in reply to: MMRCA news XI #2358984
    JSR
    Participant

    what can China do if France sells Rafale to Taiwan?.
    Stop buying Airbus? Stop buying Nissan? Above all not deal with Snecma-GE (C919 engine) or Turbomeca engines. Part of West strength or some cases weakness is most complex products are spread across countries.

    in reply to: Frenchies trimming defense #2359194
    JSR
    Participant

    Procurement budget is 11.5b Euro and R&D 1.85b Euro. it is about the same size as India.
    11 Rafale is pretty low number. Only 10% of procurement budget at most. They will be better if they buy Rafale at 30 a year to decrease the price and retire older jets. This will also decrease the prices for export.

    in reply to: Su-25 Frogfoot #2359700
    JSR
    Participant

    No worries Brazil got the world cup not Russia, no whatifs there.
    Brazil’s GDP growth rate is 7.5%, far higher than Russia’s at 4.9%. it doesn’t rely solely on service industries either.. plenty of raw resources to fall back on. It also has a growing population compared to Russia’s shrinking one, far more sources of labor.

    both got world cup. one lacks the money to do the proper infrastructure on time. not spread out money over several years.
    The same problem is happening with Canada. It simply lacks the money & skilled people to do even the necessary let alone the unnecessary like building Military-industrial complex with deep scientific research that will ultimately flow through to civilian industries. like building future long haul airliner.

    http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1105612–canada-well-behind-russia-in-race-to-claim-arctic-seaways-and-territory

    and when the Su-34 becomes fully developed and enters in numbers, the Su-25 will become more obsolete, with UCAVs coming in to complement the Su-34 to do roles that require more endurance, or at risk of high human casualty

    Su-25 is not going to obsolete. It is low G bomber. It will have practically long life. as long as it is upgraded and maintained.
    casually happens when high end Strike Fighters (they provide elint, sar, moving target indicators) & cruise missiles dont do full suppression of air defenses.

    true, Russia also has concerns over zwiley Ukranians, Chinese illegal immigrants, and Turkish real-estate agents, but you do not need a Su-25 for those. or at least not yet.

    I didnot mention Su-25 is needed for that purpose. Su-25 is used to drop even cheaper bombs. Not some specially developed PGMs for UCAVs. UAV and helicopter UAV are for survellence. moving from UAV to UCAV is very expensive. and unlikely to be replacement for Su-25.

    in reply to: Su-25 Frogfoot #2359830
    JSR
    Participant

    LOL 100 times this 100 times that. Where do you think the money will come from? Russia’s GDP is behind Canada’s nominally and on par with Brazil in PPP, both countries that can barely make any significant purchases. Russia’s only getting away with it because it spends much higher percentage of its GDP than those two.. any more and you’ll end up being like the US and USSR, going bankrupt to defend yourself against an unlikely enemy.

    this is not going to happen with current financial system. Canada/Brazil simply dont have money for development and purchases yearly. They can only maintain there current obsolete inventory. Infact Bombardier has been running towards Chinese just to develop very mediocre passenger plane. Brazil is some where at the bottom when it comes to money and technical ability to organize. Money mean real money not shifting money from one bucket to another.
    http://en.mercopress.com/2012/01/21/russia-far-advanced-to-host-the-world-cup-in-2018-than-brazil

    Su-34 plus UCAV combo > su-34 plus su-25 combo

    Su-25 is already developed. It is the lack of Su-34 that causes Su-25 failures.

    last I checked, Russia’s most problematic enemies are bearded mountain men

    certain things cannot be sort out in better way without looking at bigger picture.

    in reply to: Rise of the Sea Gripen #2027042
    JSR
    Participant

    EJ-200 hasnt been used in single engine fighter application. and it produces 20,000 thrust. not enough for heavier Gripen-NG.

    in reply to: Su-25 Frogfoot #2359931
    JSR
    Participant

    Nope, UAVs. This is a very different and much less challenging field, where Russia seems to have dropped the ball in the past 20 years. I suspect the leadership quite simply did not see the potential applications and hence failed to provide potential suppliers with guidance on what they wanted and funding. It is probably not going to go over well to say so, but this is an area where China is currently doing much better, and it’s obviously not for lack of engineering talent in Russia. Like the decision to build the strike fleet on multi-role Flankers, later to be complemented with a large UCAV, rather than the Su-34 this is a decision that should have been taken a very long time ago, but unlike the Su-34 it’s not water under the bridge yet.

    what is china currently doing better in UAV and how much resources & manpower that are wasted on UAVs in China could have been devoted to other projects?.
    Forget about past 20 years. Even in next 20 years. Russia is going to spend more than 100 times on Su-34/PAK-DA and current upgrades to bomber fleet than UCAVs. This is just strike component. & another 100 times more on fighters Su-35/T-50/MIG-31 compared to UAVs.
    whats wrong with Su-34? today if Russia has to fight tiny Qatar. It can deploy Su-34 with standoff weopons against hardened structures.
    which UCAV today can lunch standoff cruise missiles, do air to air refuelling, carry several ton of jamming pod.
    West is building UAV/UCAV in belief that it will be fighting individuals.

    1. Let’s not conflate UAVs and UCAVs. UAVs are surveillance/CAS platforms like Predator, Heron, Reaper and Eitan, UCAVs, which are strike assets, don’t really exist yet but are typified by X-47B, X-45C, Skat, Taranis and Neuron. Also, it was specifically noted that attack helos should be used to complement UAVs where applicable.
    .

    It will take long time for decent number of these UCAV in operation. and they will take budget and manpower from other projects.
    None of the above projects will be able to fire hypersonic/supersonic missiles. which is the future which are heavier and cannot be put in internal carriage in numbers unless it is bomber It is not just the speed of platform but speed of missile that is even more important in real time war.
    you dont need super expensive flying wing type UCAV for CAS.

    in reply to: T-50, M-346 and Yak-130 advance trainers future prospect? #2360870
    JSR
    Participant

    M-346 is choice of IDF but Korea is dangling some future contracts. These kind of tactics works in countries like Israel that are short of funds and always looking for contracts for it companies but it will not work in countries like China/ Saudi/Russia. when there is abundance of money.
    The thing that Israel produce like UAV/radars are cheaper than those produced by US/EU. so it is not that Korea is doing any favor to them.

    JSR
    Participant

    it doesn’t need to mimic all the MiG-31’s abilities. it just needs to get the job done.

    You can argue that the Su-25 could be made replaceable by a mix of newer precision weapons flying on Fulcrums or Flankers, and UCAVs. Neither offer the same capabilities as the Su-25, but they could do the job just the same.

    Su-25 is small and simplified plane much cheaper to operate than latest Flanker.
    Multirole Flanker can do the job of Su-25 but it will not be economical.
    Even the upgrade of Su-25 is more modest in nature as there is no such expectation of unique ability.
    It is not about getting job done but bringing unique ability at higher price. speed, altitude, engine/ radar power and weopons all contribute to it.

    http://www.cnmilitary.info/russia-will-upgrade-60-mig-31-interceptors-can-collaborate-with-anti-aircraft-missiles/
    Russia will upgrade 60 MiG-31 interceptors can collaborate with anti-aircraft missiles

    JSR
    Participant

    I don’t understand the need to modify 60 aircraft over 8 years, when the Pak-Fa will be flying in numbers by then. Spend the money on Pak-Fa’s and a future interceptor in say 2025. Does the russian airforce think that the modifications would suite a threat scenario that still makes them viable in 20 years time. Once you have modified a interceptor like the MIG-31 and most of that happens in 2015-20, those planes have to be still flying in 2030.
    Have the radars on the MIG-31’s been updated significantly to handle stealth aircraft trying to enter Russian air space, what about the fact that the MIG-31 would stand out in such an environment. Or are the Russian relying on pure speed, kinematics, radar power and some stealth coating materials to solve these issues. By 2030 alot of countires including China will have a reasonable number of stealth aircraft in there mix.
    Russia should now start looking at a 5th to 6th generation interceptor if not only on paper to start with and have a version flying say in 2020-2025.
    Also some articles i have read indicate the MIG_31 is a very hard plane to fly, requires excellent pilot skills.
    Hope all the money is worth the slow effort, 20 planes a year would be more advisable

    It seems Russian dont believe on so much Stealth.
    Next generation ground based radars, awacs, satellites and ship borne radars in about 10 to 20 years time will be powerfull enough to locate stealth fighers more effectively at much larger distances. with advanced interlinking of networks. so it may not be necessary for MIG-31 radar to find Stealth aircraft at further ranges.
    use of MIG-31 against the support assets of tankers & awacs. can decrease the scope of radius for stealth fighters.
    60 planes are not big number but they are big number in context of two to three simulatneous operations.
    Stealth fighers are slow, overweight and does not carry that much internally. what can J-20 or F-35 achieve by 2020 in quantity and range of AAMs? At most Meteor calibre AAM.

Viewing 15 posts - 4,006 through 4,020 (of 4,319 total)