JSRThen how come the initial order for 20 Tejas cost the IAF Rs 2000 crores ($400 million or thereabouts?)
$20m is pretty low for LCA as F404 engine alone will cost $6m to $7m.
with India inflation $20m can easily be $40m in 2011. such slow induction will rise the flyaway cost. how many years it took to built those 20?
JSRnaturally not all the 500 will have to be J-20s, hell not even 100. but it would give them capabilities unmatched in the region. J-10s could make up some of the numbers and be delivered earlier.
Russia also has some success in selling to UAE and Saudi Arabia.. but again China holds the most clout here.
Apart from FC-1 i dont think China has anything to offer for next 10 years. China Aviation product quality & sophistication is not upto the mark.
when you compare it to Rafale and EF. If EF does not get repeat order it means they loss confidence on EF road map. and with rising Sauid clout this will impact UAE and smaller countries defense plans. Only they had manpower to enter into beharain.
Russia dont put too much grass there apart from some choppers and airdefence systems.and this will be the reason.
JSRThe report does not say 500 fighters, or even 500 combat aircraft. It says 450-500 aircraft. Saudi Arabia is buying transports, tankers, helicopters, etc, & will need new trainers. That figure probably includes already announced orders & plans, which account for over 300 aircraft.
well the report says 450-500 aircraft by Airforce.
Natuarlly if you double the size of Army and Interior ministry troops each. they will need more helicopters and transports to carry them around. but i dont think it will be part of airforce. In Modern times no one has double the size of armed forces
JSRRussia is no longer a giant, when the formery military complex is still good enough to be in the top-league of military items and competitive in the exports of that.
Otherwise just raw-materials will bring hard currency. The infrastructure in Russia still suffers from a constant wear-out and the shortage of money to change that in a noticeable way. Just 140 mio people and still shrinking in numbers. The atomic weapons, the Veto-power in the UN and the surplus in raw-materials gives Russia still a special role at first.
It is nonsense. If you compare to drowning in debt EU/US Russia is giant. The amount of construction projects going on in Russia can only be matched by China (at that with enormous Municipal & Railway borrowing). some of those projects are going to transform the world.
140 million people are more than enough when there ready pool of labor available from post soviet space.
JSRKnaapo mention >280m/sec climb rate for Su-35
supercruise is not the only important factor. I am sure there will be difference in AAM lunched at 30000 feet and one lunch at 60000 feet.
Su-35 pilot can detect Rafale with ET at about 200 to 300km. at that time it can employ afterburner to gain altitude/speed for optimal firing solution. Su-35 can abserve loaded Rafale from long distance.
3D TVC can quickly make it tail chase engagement if Rafale fires first.
Rafale pilot will have to think more about fuel level so he may not take risk of using afterburner more to gain altitude & speed whether there will be fight.
non-afterburning thrust of 117 more than the afterburning thrust of M-88-2. so the various subsystems electronic power will be reflected in it.
.4 R-77 in the belly and with two wing tip ECM pods. There is minimum aerodynamic penalty on Su-35.
I would say Su-35 is one generation more advance than Eurocanards just by carrying so much internal fuel and so much engine power in relatively light weight airframe.
It is the same example of diesel and Petrol car. Diesel car and Petrol can spin at 2000rpm and maintain nearly identical speed but Petrol car reach that speed faster. And if you have secretly bigger fuel tank that is big advantage for rapid acceleration.
JSRThen they’ll need j-20’s not EF or F-15s.. it’ll ensure high profile SAM targets get taken out with reduced losses.
in the long run they should be developing their own arms industries.. i.e. armored vehicles, avionics, munitions for aircraft, etc
J-20 will not be operational for next 10 years and Stealth fighters have very small volume production. They need 500 fighters.
They will buy EF at some point unless EF sooner becomes obsolete due OEM lack of investment. but it is interesting they are not considering Rafale since France was the country supplying Satellite imagery for war against houthis.
JSRFun times. Saudi is going to buy 500 combat aircraft and probably 72 EF. Important part is they want to be regional power. so if there is no Rafale in other GCC countries. so i dont think UAE would want unique equipment for future common defense.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/saudi-arabia-expands-its-power-as-us-influence-diminishes/2011/11/18/gIQAX8wwZN_story.html
JSRBrazil has one advantage that no amounts of Russia/Chinese money can make up…
it is not seen as a strategic competitor/ideological nemesis.
It’s companies faces much less political hurdle in importing technology.
it’s a double edge sword though.. it forces Russia/China to develope the key parts in-house…minus in short term, as particular bottle neck would slow down a program, but a big plus in long run as it forces the technologic-political complex to focus on core-competencies to have the ability to develope key technoloigy.
Brazil… and I would say same for India also, don’t have that issue. also a double edge sword. less-pressure to pour money into R&D. big plus in short term to be able to easily acquire technology, big minus in long run as your ability to develope core-competency gets less focus.
This is not an advantage for Brazil and India at all when you have no money and expertize of absorb technology.
how many years Sarkozy trying to sell Rafale to Brazil.
JSRIt doesn’t affect your main argument, but who in Brazil is going to assemble fuselages for Bombardier? Embraer? Right, didn’t think so… 😀
Embarer cant. Embarer hasnt develop a plane that using the amount of composite & size that new CSeries is using. second why it has to be Embaraer.? there should be other subcontractors inside the county. Russia/China has multiple plants building planes. They are much more commited in expanding a balance line up between military and civil planes.
JSRare you saying China and Russia doesn’t have corruption and incompetence issues?
as for debt, last I checked Brazil and Indonesia have lower external debts than Russia both total and % of gdp.
Every country have these issue but they have lesser than Brazil.
Brazil simply dont have currency reserves of Russia/China despite being in Western system far longer duration to trade. lower external debts?
Brazil still not generating trade surpluses in 2011 on same scale. It means it is very import depended economic system.
Brazil still need help from Alcoa let alone creating any giant thing like
AV-VSMPO. There is huge difference between these countries.
JSRof course it’s not theory, it’s bull$hit ! 😀
you are claiming India doesn’t have the money for an airliner project while India is actually developing an airliner. 😉
First its has to fly as prototype & than Certified by FAA/EASA and than it will need big investment for mass production. It has very very long way to go.
JSRBrazil is roughly the most similar to Russia out of the 4, but to be specific, Brazil is higher than Russia in nominal GDP, GDP Per capita, and GDP growth rate is much higher (7.5% vs 4.5%) based on IMF data. Nominal GDP is also higher than India too
Indonesia has a GDP growth rate of 6%
corruption, debt and incompetence can also create pretty high GDP for decades. look at Italy, Greece, Saudi, Spain assuming they are accurately calculated. GDP does not create hard currency.
Indonesia/Brazil/India have practically no chance of catching up with Russia/China whether it is Space technologies, Nuclear field, Semiconductors, CFRP, Engines, Supercomputers.
and this advantages of of Russia/China will increase over time as they have more hard cash to spent on bankrkupt EU/US firms. so that exclusive access of democratic Brazil/India/Indonesia that give them certain advantages in previous decades will completely disapper.
See Bombardier CSeries fuselage made in China but not in lower cost India or more experiance Brazil.
JSRunfortunately, the expansion phase of most post industrial age economies seem to be plagued by inequal growth and corruption.
that’s the problem of theorizing while being ignorant of the reality. I gather you are not aware of the NAL RTA. India’s defence budget as % of GDP has shrunk from 3% in 80’s, 2.75% in 90’s to less than 2% right now. clearly, it’s not whether India can afford to but whether India chooses to.
It is not theory. Brazil/India/Indonesia/Nigeria lacks the money, political will and institutions to move into next level and this will be quite obvious with time. It is more debt and consumption based GDP.
Technoogy sharing for Aluminium after using 3 decades of Western suppliers.
http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/11/18/alcoa-embraer-in-technology-deal/
Alcoa, Embraer In Technology DealAs per the agreement Embraer S.A. will utilize Alcoa’s proprietary aluminum alloys, advanced design and manufacturing techniques, and its fastener technologies to support Embraer’s development of new high-performance metallic fuselage and wing solutions for its family of aircraft.
with Decline of EU/US and more hard cash in Russia/China hands. Brazil will have hard time competing with them for the highly skilled management and technology.
JSR.
Re: Brazil’s future status as the world’s 4th-largest economy behind China/US/India, see The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICS and N-11 Post Crisis (Goldman Sachs, 2009)
If you’re worried about the date here’s a recent minor update: The BRICS Remain in the Fast Lane (Goldman Sachs, June 2011).
:
I think you shouldnot put too much stock into this projections. This year China consolidated Tax revenue will be $1.6T. Russia will be $900B.
Now deduct the debt repaments and interest expenses from these you still get huge amount of firepower for spending on R&D at government level. thats why Russia/China can afford MS21/C919 but not Brazil/India. I will go on into space programs, research institutes & public corporations budgets.
without spending money today on R&D Brazil will remain assembly line of foreign products. Even in Food Brazil is not top exporter of grain.
Every things need money invested today for tommorrow result.
Embarrer will need bailout as it remain regional jet manufacturer for ever. Embarrer has 20 year lead over Russia/China in using western suppliers and techniques. but it will face very different environment in future. just like what happened to Japan with entry of Korea/Taiwan/China in most fields.
decline of EU will have very negative impact on Brazil.
JSRThe part about UAE only interested in 60 Rafales to do Sarkozy a favor is pure bull****, seriously. Nobody spends billions of dollars as a favor for an unpopular politician.
I know the Saudis bought Tornados and then Eurofighters from the brits but they put allot of money in their own pockets. They want the Rafale, but they know they can get a better price…
This Rafale negotiations have been going on for couple of years and Sarkzy was popular to certain in beg. now either sarkzy will be booted out or spend rest of his life arguing with Germany on bailouts.
Sarkzy is not Iron lady or Tony Blair.i simply dont see UAE doing business with him.
EADS is another matter with its EU wide content and RR engines.
Sign In
